Arborg Bifrost-Riverton Sustainable Community Action Plan - Growth Management Plan
Arborg, Manitoba
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REPORT NO.: 161-02769-00-07
ARBORG BIFROST-
RIVERTON SUSTAINABLE
COMMUNITY ACTION PLAN
GROWTH MANAGEMENT PLAN
SEPTEMBER 2017
Confidential
Project No.: 161-02769-00-07
Date: September 2017
111-93 Lombard Avenue
Winnipeg, MB R3B 3B1
Phone: 204-943-3178
Fax: 204-943-4948
www.wsp.com
ARBORG BIFROST-RIVERTON
SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITY
ACTION PLAN
GROWTH MANAGEMENT PLAN
Arborg Bifrost Riverton CDC
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................. 1
2
POPULATION CHANGE ................................................................ 2
2.1
STATISTICS CANADA CENSUS DATA (1991-2016) ......................................... 2
2.2
MANITOBA HEALTH DATA (2010-2015) ............................................................ 4
3
POPULATION AGE-SEX PROFILES ............................................. 6
4
POPULATION PROJECTION - 2015 - 2040 ................................. 7
4.1
TOWN OF ARBORG ............................................................................................. 7
4.2
VILLAGE OF RIVERTON ...................................................................................... 8
4.3
MUNICIPALITY OF BIFROST ............................................................................ 10
5
HOUSING AND RESIDENTIAL LAND REQUIREMENTS ........... 11
5.1
TOWN OF ARBORG ........................................................................................... 12
5.2
VILLAGE OF RIVERTON .................................................................................... 12
5.3
MUNICIPALITY OF BIFROST ............................................................................ 13
6
LAND SUPPLY ............................................................................. 15
6.1
METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................ 15
6.2
LAND INVENTORY AND PROJECTED SUPPLY AND DEMAND
ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................... 15
7
SERVICING NEW DEVELOPMENT ............................................. 19
7.1
TOWN OF ARBORG ........................................................................................... 19
7.2
VILLAGE OF RIVERTON .................................................................................... 21
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T A B L E S
TABLE 2-1 POPULATION CHANGE BY MUNICIPALITY 1991 - 2016 (STATISTICS
CANADA) ................................................................................................ 2
TABLE 2-2 POPULATION CHANGE BY MUNICIPALITY 2010-2015 (MANITOBA
HEALTH) ................................................................................................. 5
TABLE 4-1 POPULATION PROJECTION - ARBORG (2015-2040) ........................................ 8
TABLE 4-2 POPULATION PROJECTION - RIVERTON (2015-2040) ..................................... 9
TABLE 4-3 POPULATION PROJECTION - BIFROST (2015-2040) ...................................... 10
TABLE 5-1 ARBORG HOUSING & RESIDENTIAL LAND DEMAND (2015-2040) ................ 12
TABLE 5-2 RIVERTON HOUSING & RESIDENTIAL LAND DEMAND (2015-2040) ............. 12
TABLE 5-3 BIFROST HOUSING & RESIDENTIAL LAND DEMAND (2015-2040) ................ 13
TABLE 5-4 BIFROST-RIVERTON RESIDENTIAL PERMITS (2005-2016) ............................ 14
TABLE 5-5 BIFROST COTTAGE LAND DEMAND (2015-2040) ............................................ 14
TABLE 6-1 PLAN AREA RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY AND DEMAND (2015-2040) ......... 15
F I G U R E S
FIGURE 2-1 PLAN AREA POPULATION 1991-2016 (STATISTICS CANADA) ...................... 4
FIGURE 3-1 PLAN AREA AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION (STATISTICS CANADA 2011) ............ 6
FIGURE 4-1 POPULATION PROJECTION - ARBORG (2015-2040)...................................... 8
FIGURE 4-2 POPULATION PROJECTION - RIVERTON (2015-2040)................................... 9
FIGURE 4-3 POPULATION PROJECTION - BIFROST (2015-2040).................................... 10
FIGURE 6-1 - ARBORG VACANT AREAS MAP ................................................................... 16
FIGURE 6-2 - RIVERTON VACANT AREAS MAP ................................................................ 17
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1
INTRODUCTION
The Growth Management Plan is one of four documents that support the Arborg Bifrost-Riverton
Sustainable Community Action Plan (the Plan). The historic population of Arborg, Bifrost and Riverton
(the Plan Area) was analyzed and projected to the year 2040. The population projections are used to
estimate the potential future demand for housing and land required for residential development. Historic
information on population change for the Plan Area was obtained from two sources: Statistics Canada
data for census years from 1991 to 2016 and Manitoba Health insurance registration records for
consecutive years from 2010 to 2015. It should be noted that discrepancies exist between the two data
sets because the data are derived from different sources. Statistics Canada bases their population
numbers on a census that is completed every five years, and obtains data through mail and online.
Manitoba Health obtains their population data based on records of residents registered with Manitoba
Health, Seniors, and Active Living in the Province per Municipality.
For information purposes, the Plan Area population data from both sources is shown in table form and
discussed in the following sub-sections. In addition to population counts for given years, the population
tables also provide information on the Plan Area population change in terms of both absolute numbers
and percentages on an actual and averaged basis. It is important to note that at the time this document
was written the most recent Statistics Canada census, completed in 2011, was prior to the municipal
amalgamation of the Municipality of Bifrost and the Village of Riverton. Therefore, the data for these
municipalities were available as separate data sets, have unique data, and will be mostly presented as
individual municipalities. As this document was being completed, the 2016 census population data was
released and has been incorporated as supporting data.
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POPULATION CHANGE
2.1
STATISTICS CANADA CENSUS DATA (1991-2016)
Table 2-1 provides Statistics Canada census counts for the Plan Area municipalities
pre-amalgamation and the most recent population data from the 2016 Census. Table 2-1 indicates that
the pre-amalgamation Municipality of Bifrost grew by +8% between census years 1991 and 2011. While
modest, this growth is contrary to the experience of most rural municipalities and smaller farming
communities across Manitoba that witnessed steep declines in population due to the rural-to-urban
migration over the later part of the 20th century; a decline largely due to such factors as farm
consolidations, an aging population, and the centralization of services and facilities within larger
communities and regional trade centres like Arborg. Over this same period, Riverton's population
declined by just under -8% overall, but appears to have stabilized between census years 2006 and
2011 with the population remaining virtually unchanged at 538 residents.
As a whole, the Plan Area population grew by 293 individuals between 1991 and 2011, according to
the census counts, which amounts to an overall growth rate of +6.7% and an average annual growth
rate* of +0.3%. While some might consider the population to be virtually "static" given the small
increase, the Plan Area has nonetheless fared much better than most rural parts of the Province far
removed from the bigger population centres. This may be attributable to the underlying strength and
resiliency of the agricultural sector as well as the ability of the area to attract newcomers, some of whom
have located in the rural parts of the Plan Area. That being said, the majority of the Plan Area's
population growth occurred in the Town of Arborg, especially since 2001.
Table 2-1 Population Change by Municipality 1991 - 2016 (Statistics Canada)
MUNICIPALITY
CENSUS
YEAR
POPULATION
POPULATION
CHANGE
%
CHANGE
BY
PERIOD
%
ANNUAL
CHANGE**
OCCUPIED
PRIVATE
DWELLINGS
PERSONS
PER UNIT
Bifrost
1991
2,750
1996
2,851
101
3.7%
0.72%
2001
2,967
116
4.1%
0.80%
2006
2,972
5
0.2%
0.03%
1,016
2.9
2011
2,976
4
0.1%
0.03%
1,008
3.0
Riverton
1991
584
1996
566
-18
-3.08%
-0.62%
2001
594
28
4.95%
0.97%
2006
537
-57
-9.60%
-2.00%
218
2.5
2011
538
1
0.19%
0.04%
213
2.5
Bifrost-
Riverton*
1991
3,334
1996
3,417
83
2.49%
0.49%
2001
3,561
144
4.21%
0.83%
2006
3,509
-52
-1.46%
-0.29%
1,234
2.8
2011
3,514
5
0.14%
0.03%
1,221
2.9
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MUNICIPALITY
CENSUS
YEAR
POPULATION
POPULATION
CHANGE
%
CHANGE
BY
PERIOD
%
ANNUAL
CHANGE**
OCCUPIED
PRIVATE
DWELLINGS
PERSONS
PER UNIT
2016
3,378
-136
-3.87%
-0.79%
1,225
2.8
Arborg
1991
1,039
1996
1,012
-27
-2.60%
-0.53%
2001
959
-53
-5.24%
-1.07%
2006
1,021
62
6.47%
1.26%
456
2.2
2011
1,152
131
12.83%
2.44%
467
2.5
2016
1,232
80
6.94%
1.35%
498
2.5
Plan Area
1991
4,373
1996
4,429
56
1.28%
0.25%
2001
4,520
91
2.05%
0.41%
2006
4,530
10
0.22%
0.04%
1,690
2.7
2011
4,666
136
3.00%
0.59%
1,688
2.8
2016
4,610
-56
-1.20%
-0.24%
1,723
2.7
* 1991-2011 are combined Bifrost-Riverton populations.
**The Compound Annual Growth Rate formula was used to determine average annual growth rates
Based on the Canada Census period between 1991 and 2011, the population of Arborg grew by just
over +10% which translates to an average annual growth rate of +0.5%. Arborg experienced a decline
in population over the 10 year period from 1991 to 2001, and began to grow again from 2001 to 2011
at an average annual rate of +1.9%; well above the provincial average of +0.8% for the same time
period. In the 2011 census period, Arborg experienced a comparatively strong average annual growth
rate of +2.4% between 2006 and 2011. In the most recent Census period, 2011-2016, Arborg once
again experienced positive growth of 6.9% which is an average annual growth rate of 1.35%.
Table 2-1 also presents census year dwelling unit counts that reveal the ratio of persons-per-occupied
dwelling unit (PPU); information that is needed for estimating future housing and the associated land
requirements. By and large, PPU rates have decreased over time while remaining higher for rural areas,
signifying larger families within the farming community as well as a higher proportion of single-person
households within Arborg and Riverton. According to the 2011 Canada Census, the PPU for both
Arborg and Riverton was 2.5 PPU and for Bifrost it was 3.0 PPU.
Figure 2-1 graphs the population of each municipality in the Plan Area based on the population for the
Canada census years from 1991. For comparison, the Plan Area population change between 2010 and
2015 based on Manitoba Bureau of Statistics data is discussed in the next section.
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Figure 2-1 Plan Area Population 1991-2016 (Statistics Canada)
* Combined Bifrost-Riverton populations.
2.2
MANITOBA HEALTH DATA (2010-2015)
Table 2-2 presents the Plan Area population counts from the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS) for
the 5-year period 2010-2015. The Bureau compiles demographic data on a yearly basis including
population counts by municipality and health region which is useful for identifying recent population
trends.
An examination of the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS) data from Table 2-2 indicates that since
2010 the post-amalgamation Municipality of Bifrost-Riverton experienced a -12.6% decline in
population, amounting to a total of almost 400 people; an average annual decline of -2.7%. Fortunately,
this population loss was more than offset by a gain in Arborg's population over the same period of 465
individuals; an overall increase of almost +27% or +4.9% per year. Overall, according to the MBS
counts, the Plan Area experienced sporadic growth between 2010 and 2015 resulting in a net increase
of 67 people. This amounts to an overall increase of +1.4%, or +0.3% annually; a number that is
comparable to the growth rate of +0.3% derived from Statistics Canada census counts for the Plan
Area from 1991 to 2011.
Based on the available data, the analysis points to the fact that population losses in the rural parts of
the Plan Area have been offset by population gains in Arborg and, to a lesser extent, Riverton. At best,
the Plan Area population can be regarded as "holding its own". While farm consolidations and
mechanization may impact the rural population, it is hoped that the expansion and/or recovery of
cultivated acreage will help to stabilize the rural population. In addition, it is anticipated that the Plan
Area population will also receive a boost from the expansion of existing manufacturing enterprises,
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
Plan Area Population (Statistics Canada)
Bifrost
Riverton
Arborg
Bifrost-Riverton*
Study Area
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from new business start-ups and home-based businesses, and from employment growth related to
staffing requirements at the new Arborg Personal Care Home (PCH).
Table 2-2 Population Change by Municipality 2010-2015 (Manitoba Health)
MUNICIPALITY
YEAR
POPULATION
POPULATION
CHANGE
%
ANNUAL
CHANGE
% CHANGE
SINCE
2010
AVERAGE
ANNUAL
CHANGE
SINCE 2010
Bifrost-Riverton
2010
3,148
2011
3,047
-101
-3.2%
2012
2,975
-72
-2.4%
2013
2,888
-87
-2.9%
2014
2,799
-89
-3.1%
2015
2,750
-49
-1.8%
-12.6%
-2.7%
2016
2,692
-58
-2.1%
-14.5%
-2.6%
Arborg
2010
1,731
2011
1,782
51
2.95%
2012
1,924
142
7.97%
2013
2,081
157
8.16%
2014
2,107
26
1.25%
2015
2,196
89
4.22%
26.9%
4.9%
2016
2,241
45
2.05%
29.5%
4.4%
Plan Area
2010
4,879
2011
4,829
-50
-1.02%
2012
4,899
70
1.45%
2013
4,969
70
1.43%
2014
4,906
-63
-1.27%
2015
4,946
40
0.82%
1.4%
0.3%
2016
4,933
-13
-0.26%
1.1%
0.2%
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POPULATION AGE-SEX PROFILES
The Plan Area's population age-sex profiles, based on Statistics Canada for the year 2011 is presented
in Figure 3-1. The numbers on the graph indicate the number of males and females within a particular
age cohort. Population age-sex profiles, also known as a population pyramid, are primarily used to
determine if a population is growing, static, or shrinking. A population pyramid with a wide base and
narrow top means that the population is growing. Alternatively, a population that has a wide top and a
narrow base means that the population is likely to shrink. Generally, the population pyramid for the Plan
Area shows that the population is static. The population pyramid shows that there is a larger number
of the population younger than 19 and older than 45. This can mean that a high proportion of the Plan
Area's working population is currently moving towards retirement age, which could result in a number
of implications for the Plan Area, such as a demand for alternative housing, i.e., multi-family homes
(apartments, condominiums, small single-family homes), supportive housing, nursing homes, and a
potential demand for increased services including age appropriate recreational opportunities and health
care. It also means that a large number of youth could be looking for jobs in the area and the movement
of some of the Plan Area's population from working age to retirement age could open up a number of
jobs. However, the current indication of a reduced population in the 20 to 45 year age range could
mean that a number of people have left for school or to find jobs elsewhere. This is an important age
range to retain in the community because this is the age range that is typically engaged in the workforce
and starting families. If younger individuals and families are retained in the area, it could have an impact
on demand for municipal services such as schools and recreational facilities.
Figure 3-1 Plan Area Age-Sex Distribution (Statistics Canada 2011)
250
200
150
100
50
0
50
100
150
200
250
0-4 yrs.
5-9 yrs.
10-14 yrs.
15-19 yrs.
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs.
35-39 yrs.
40-44 yrs.
45-49 yrs.
50-54 yrs.
55-59 yrs.
60-64 yrs.
65-69 yrs.
70-74 yrs.
75+ yrs.
Population
Age
Males
Females
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POPULATION PROJECTION - 2015 - 2040
Low, medium, and high population projections from the year 2015 to 2040 were completed for the Town
of Arborg, the Village of Riverton, and the former Municipality of Bifrost. The population projections are
used to estimate the potential future demand for housing and land for residential development.
For planning purposes, it is recommended that the moderate growth rate be used for calculating order-
of-magnitude estimates of related housing and land requirements. The authors believe that there are
reasons to be optimistic that these growth targets can be reached. Compared with many rural areas
across the province, Arborg Bifrost-Riverton enjoys a relatively balanced economy, with agriculture and
manufacturing leading the way. The area's population will also receive a boost from the staffing of the
eminent construction of the Arborg PCH. Additionally, the ABCDC's proactive plans to participate in
federal and provincial immigration programs should enable area employers to attract needed workers
and their families.
4.1
TOWN OF ARBORG
Based on Statistics Canada population counts for Arborg from 1991 to 2011, Arborg experienced an
average annual increase in population of +0.5%. Over the ten year period from 2001 to 2011, Arborg
experienced an average annual increase of +1.9%, and over the five year period from 2006 to 2011,
the average annual population increase was +2.4%. Additionally, in the most recent 2016 Census, the
average annual increase was +1.35%. This provides the context for projecting the Plan Area's
population for the 25 year period from 2015 to 2040 based on "low", "moderate" and "high" annual
growth rates of +0.50%, +1.5% and +2.5%, respectively.
The "low" annual growth rate of +0.5% was selected because it falls in line with the actual annual growth
rate of +0.5% experienced by Arborg over the 20 year period between 1991 and 2011. Although Arborg
lost population between 1991 and 2001, the population has been growing every year since 2001 and it
is expected that this trend will continue as Arborg continues to grow as a service center. In addition,
and although the population numbers are different, the MBS growth rates support the upward growth
trend. According to Statistics Canada, Arborg grew at an average annual growth rate of +1.26%
between 2001 and 2006 and between 2006 and 2011, Arborg grew at an average annual growth rate
of +2.4%. Based on these numbers, a "high" average annual growth rate of +2.5% was selected and a
"moderate" annual growth rate of +1.5% was selected as it splits the difference between the "high" and
"low" growth rates. Table 4-1 presents, and Figure 4-1 illustrates, the population projection for the
Town of Arborg in 5-year time intervals over the planning period assuming a base population of 1,152
in 2011 from the Statistics Canada data.
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Table 4-1 Population Projection - Arborg (2015-2040)
PERIOD
LOW GROWTH SCENARIO
(+0.50%)
MODERATE GROWTH
SCENARIO (+1.50%)
HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
(+2.50%)
POPULATION
ESTIMATE
POPULATION
CHANGE BY
PERIOD
POPULATION
ESTIMATE
POPULATION
CHANGE BY
PERIOD
POPULATION
ESTIMATE
POPULATION
CHANGE BY
PERIOD
2011
1,152
1,152
1,152
2015
1,175
23
1,223
71
1,272
120
2020
1,205
30
1,317
94
1,439
167
2025
1,235
30
1,419
102
1,628
189
2030
1,267
31
1,529
110
1,842
214
2035
1,298
32
1,647
118
2,084
242
2040
1,331
33
1,774
127
2,357
274
Figure 4-1 Population Projection - Arborg (2015-2040)
4.2
VILLAGE OF RIVERTON
The population of the Village of Riverton slowly declined at an average annual growth rate of -0.4% in
the 20 year period between 1991 and 2011. The largest positive population change was from 1996 to
2001 when the average annual population change rate was +1.0%. The largest negative population
change was from 2001 to 2006 when the average annual population change rate was -2.0%. In the
most recent census period between 2006 and 2011, the average annual population change was
+0.04%. Given the small population size of the Village of Riverton, relatively minor changes in the
population can have a significant impact on the average annual population change. Given the rather
irregular population change in the Village of Riverton, which between 1991 and 2011 experienced
population decreases, increases, and an overall population decrease, a "low" annual growth rate of -
0.5%, a moderate annual growth rate of +0.05%, and high annual growth rate of +0.5% were selected
1331
1774
2357
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Population Projection - Arborg (2015-2040)
Low (0.5%)
Moderate (1.5%)
High (2.0%)
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for the Village of Riverton population projection. Table 4-2 presents, and Figure 4-2 illustrates, the
population projection for the Village of Riverton in 5-year time intervals over the planning period
assuming a base population of 538 in 2011 from the Statistics Canada data.
Table 4-2 Population Projection - Riverton (2015-2040)
PERIOD
LOW GROWTH SCENARIO
(-0.50%)
MODERATE GROWTH
SCENARIO (+0.05%)
HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
(+0.50%)
POPULATION
ESTIMATE
POPULATION
CHANGE BY
PERIOD
POPULATION
ESTIMATE
POPULATION
CHANGE BY
PERIOD
POPULATION
ESTIMATE
POPULATION
CHANGE BY
PERIOD
2011
538
538
538
2015
527
-11
539
1.1
549
11
2020
514
-13
540
1.3
563
14
2025
502
-13
542
1.4
577
14
2030
489
-12
543
1.4
591
15
2035
477
-12
544
1.4
606
15
2040
465
-12
546
1.4
622
15
Figure 4-2 Population Projection - Riverton (2015-2040)
465
546
622
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Population Projection - Riverton (2015-2040)
Low (-0.5%)
Moderate (0.05%)
High (0.5%)
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4.3
MUNICIPALITY OF BIFROST
The population of the Municipality of Bifrost increased by 226 people between 1991 and 2011 which
amounts to an average annual growth rate of +0.4%. Most of the population growth occurred between
1991 and 2001 at an average annual growth rate of +0.8%. Between 2001 and 2011, the population
increased at an average annual rate of +0.03%. Taking into account that the population saw higher
growth in the 1990s and has leveled off in the past ten to fifteen years, the Bifrost population projection
used a "low", "moderate", and "high" annual growth rate of +0.03%, +0.3%, and +0.8%, respectively,
were used. Table 4-3 presents, and Figure 4-3 illustrates, the population projection for the Municipality
of Bifrost in 5-year time intervals over the planning period assuming a base population of 2,976 in 2011
from the Statistics Canada data.
Table 4-3 Population Projection - Bifrost (2015-2040)
PERIOD
LOW GROWTH SCENARIO
(+0.03%)
MODERATE GROWTH
SCENARIO (+0.30%)
HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
(+0.80%)
POPULATION
ESTIMATE
POPULATION
CHANGE BY
PERIOD
POPULATION
ESTIMATE
POPULATION
CHANGE BY
PERIOD
POPULATION
ESTIMATE
POPULATION
CHANGE BY
PERIOD
2011
2,976
2,976
2,976
2015
2,980
4
3,012
36
3,072
96
2020
2,984
4
3,057
45
3,197
125
2025
2,989
5
3,103
46
3,327
130
2030
2,993
4
3,150
47
3,462
135
2035
2,998
5
3,198
48
3,603
141
2040
3,002
4
3,246
48
3,750
147
Figure 4-3 Population Projection - Bifrost (2015-2040)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Population Projection - Bifrost (2015-2040)
Low (0.03%)
Moderate (0.3%)
High (0.8%)
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5
HOUSING AND RESIDENTIAL LAND
REQUIREMENTS
The moderate population growth scenarios were used to estimate potential housing units and related
land requirements for the Plan Area over the 25 year planning period from 2015 to 2040. The estimates
of land consumption are based on the assumption that the predominant housing format will be single-
detached housing. Therefore, the estimates of land consumption for future housing should be regarded
as a worst-case scenario in terms of needed acreage. Ideally, some of the required housing in the Town
of Arborg and Village of Riverton could be accommodated in multiple-family housing of various formats
and densities ranging from semi-detached units at 10+ units per acre, to townhouses at 15-20 units per
acre, and apartments at 30-40 units per acre. This would reduce land consumption while ensuring a
wide range of housing types for people and families across all income groups and life-cycle stages.
Accurate predictions of the nature and distribution of future growth cannot be easily accounted for in
such a high level analysis. Accordingly, the estimates of future housing and land requirements should
be regarded as order-of-magnitude estimates. The main purpose in presenting this information is to
provide some basis for aligning the potential demand for residential land across the Plan Area with the
amount of land currently designated for such development or available on an as-needed basis. The
analysis will also promote discussion, taking into consideration servicing capacity, as to how future
residential development can or should be accommodated within the Arborg Bifrost-Riverton area in a
cost-efficient, fiscally responsible and environmentally sustainable way. The estimates are based on
the following assumptions:
The moderate growth scenario for the municipalities provide a reasonable predictor of the future
population range.
In estimating housing requirements, a persons-per-housing unit (PPU) ratio of 2.5 was applied to
the Town of Arborg and Village of Riverton and a PPU ratio of 2.8 was applied to the Municipality
of Bifrost based on the Statistics Canada ratio from the 2011 and 2016 Canada Census.
The estimates of future land requirements assume that the predominant housing format will be
single-detached housing in both urban and rural settings, which is the worst-case scenario in terms
of land consumption.
In order to estimate future residential land requirements for Arborg and Riverton, a yield of 4.0 units
per gross acre was assumed which represents an average lot size of 60 feet by 120 feet with a
30% allowance for roads, land drainage facilities and open space.
In order to estimate future Bifrost residential land requirements, an average unit yield of 2.0 units
per gross acre was assumed, a figure that, theoretically allows for smaller lots of ½ acre or less to
larger lots of 2 acres or more for both rural and cottage development.
Cottage development in the Municipality of Bifrost is assumed to require land that is not captured
in the population projections. Land required for cottage development was estimated based on
permit data. Based on the Bifrost Zoning By-law, 3.0 units per gross acre was assumed.
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5.1
TOWN OF ARBORG
Arborg would require construction of 221 housing units over the 25-year planning period, an average
rate of almost nine units per year. If the housing was provided solely in a single-detached format, 221
units would require approximately 55 gross acres of land. Table 5-1 shows the estimated demand for
housing and the associated amount of land based on the population projections and assumptions.
Table 5-1 Arborg Housing & Residential Land Demand (2015-2040)
PERIOD
POPULATION
INCREASE
NEW HOUSING UNITS (2.5
PPU)
ACRES REQUIRED (4
DU/ACRE)
2015-2020
94
38
9
2021-2025
102
41
10
2026-2030
110
44
11
2031-2035
118
47
12
2036-2040
127
51
13
Total
551
221
55
5.2
VILLAGE OF RIVERTON
Riverton would require approximately 3-5 new housing units over the 25-year planning period, an
average of about one unit per every five years. Based on the assumption that all new units will be
single-detached, approximately one to two acres of land would be required at an assumed density of 4
units per acre. Riverton has a number of vacant subdivided lots that could accommodate growth in
Riverton. Table 5-2 shows the estimated demand for housing and the associated amount of land based
on the population projections and assumptions.
Table 5-2 Riverton Housing & Residential Land Demand (2015-2040)
PERIOD
POPULATION
INCREASE
NEW HOUSING UNITS (2.5
PPU)
LAND REQUIRED (ACRES)
(4 DU/ACRE)
2015-2020
1
0.5
0.13
2021-2025
1
0.5
0.14
2026-2030
1
0.5
0.14
2031-2035
1
0.5
0.14
2036-2040
1
0.5
0.14
Total
5
3
1
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5.3
MUNICIPALITY OF BIFROST
The Municipality of Bifrost has different residential land requirements than the Town of Arborg and
Village of Riverton because it includes agricultural areas, cottage areas, settlement centres, and rural
residential development, etc. This makes it slightly more difficult to determine how much land will be
required because a farm split for example could be multiple acres. Therefore population projections
were used to estimate the number of new housing units, excluding cottages that will be required. It is
assumed that these housing units will be accommodated by farm yard splits and other rural residential
outside of the Village of Riverton and Town of Arborg. Based on this assumption and the population
projection, the Municipality of Bifrost will require 83 housing units, or an average of about three units
per year, over the 25 year planning period. It is assumed that these new housing units can be
accommodated through current land use designations and, if not, land should be re-designated and
re-zoned to accommodate the growth.
Table 5-3 Bifrost Housing & Residential Land Demand (2015-2040)
PERIOD
POPULATION
INCREASE
NEW HOUSING UNITS (2.8 PPU)
2015-2020
45
16
2021-2025
46
16
2026-2030
47
17
2031-2035
48
17
2036-2040
48
17
Total
234
83
Although population growth is assumed to contribute to some demand for land, it is assumed that most
of the land demand in the Municipality of Bifrost-Riverton is likely to come from cottage development.
To determine the amount of land needed for cottage development building permit stats were used.
Table 5-4 presents residential building statistics for Bifrost Riverton from 2005 to May 2016. The
numbers indicate that the Municipality of Bifrost-Riverton averaged 1.1 residential permits per month,
or approximately 13 permits per year, for the period in question. Based on a persons-per-housing unit
(PPU) ratio of 2.8, this would equate to 36 additional seasonal residents per year. However, this is not
consistent with the census population data. In roughly the same period as the building permit stats, the
population of the Municipality of Bifrost increased by approximately ten people and based on the
amalgamated population data for the Municipality of Bifrost-Riverton the population decreased.
Therefore, we could assume that the majority of these permits were for cottage development and that
the amount of land required for cottage development is not captured by the population projection.
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Table 5-4 Bifrost-Riverton Residential Permits (2005-2016)
YEAR
PERMITS
MONTHLY AVERAGE
2005
17
1.4
2006
17
1.4
2007
26
2.2
2008
18
1.5
2009
12
1.0
2010
14
1.2
2011
11
0.9
2012
11
0.9
2013
9
0.8
2014
9
0.8
2015
11
0.9
JAN - MAY
2016
5
1.0
OVERALL
160
1.2
Source: East Interlake Planning District 2016
The Bifrost Zoning By-law states that the "SRG" Seasonal Recreation General Zone is intended for
cottages. Additionally, the "SRR" Seasonal Recreation Residential Zone is likely to accommodate
cottage development although it is mainly intended for residential uses. The minimum site area
permitted for these zones is 15,000 sq. ft., or 0.34 acres. Based on the permit data, we assume that
there will be approximately 12 permits per year for cottage development. Therefore between 2015 and
2040, there is approximately 100 gross acres required for cottage development
Table 5-5 Bifrost Cottage Land Demand (2015-2040)
PERIOD
COTTAGES
LAND REQUIRED (ACRES)
(3 DU/ACRE)
2015-2040
300
100
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LAND SUPPLY
6.1
METHODOLOGY
An analysis of vacant land within the Town of Arborg and Village of Riverton that is designated
residential in the Development Plan was undertaken in order to assess the amount of land available for
future residential development. Lands designated residential in the Development Plan were overlaid on
an aerial map to identify areas that were vacant. The vacant parcels were also verified as vacant
through data that was available from the tax assessment and verified by local knowledge.
6.2
LAND INVENTORY AND PROJECTED SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS
There are approximately 88 gross acres of vacant land designated residential in Arborg and
approximately 74 gross acres of land designated residential in Riverton that is presumably available for
development (Table 6-1). In addition, there is approximately 5 gross acres of land adjacent to the
southwest boundary of Arborg that is available for development. Vacant land for the Municipality of
Bifrost was not available at the time this report was written. Figure 6-1 shows that most of the available
land in Arborg is in the northwest and northeast areas of town. In Riverton, most of the vacant residential
land is located on the west side of town and north part of town (Figure 6-2).
Table 6-1 Plan Area Residential Land Supply and Demand (2015-2040)
RESIDENTIAL LAND SUPPLY (GROSS
ACRES)
LAND DEMAND (GROSS ACRES)
Arborg
88
55
Riverton
74
1-2
Bifrost
N/A
100+
According to the moderate population projection, the overall amount of land that will be needed to
accommodate growth in the Plan Area over the study period is more than 100 gross acres.
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Figure 6-1 - Arborg Vacant Areas Map
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Figure 6-2 - Riverton Vacant Areas Map
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Historically Arborg has experienced the highest growth rates in the Plan Area and it is anticipated that
Arborg will continue to experience more growth than the Municipality of Bifrost-Riverton because it has
established itself as the main service centre for the northern Interlake area and has municipal
infrastructure such as a public water system that could attract residential, institutional, and industrial
growth. This underlines the importance of strengthening Arborg as a well-serviced and well-functioning
town in order to attract newcomers while reducing the voluntary out-migration of people and families to
communities and regions perceived as offering better services, more jobs and business opportunities,
and a better quality-of-life. Riverton also has significant potential to serve the Plan Area as an attractive
alternative to Arborg for residents and retirees wanting to live in a smaller community.
From a land use perspective only, and based on the moderate growth population projection, Arborg
has enough available land to support residential growth to 2040 and beyond; there are an additional 33
gross acres available for single family residential development than what is needed.
The Municipality of Bifrost-Riverton, which includes the Village of Riverton, requires more than 150
gross acres of land to accommodate population growth, based on moderate a growth projection, and
cottage development. It is anticipated that most of the growth in the Municipality will be for cottage
development within the Village of Riverton and the surrounding area. On its own, the Village of Riverton
has experienced relatively low growth over the years and has more than enough land available to
accommodate future growth which is projected to remain quite low. If the Village of Riverton does
experience unexpected growth, there will be enough land to accommodate that growth. This growth
could come as a result of the potential cottage and recreation industry, and also from growth in Arborg.
At this time, there is no data on vacant land in the remaining areas of the Municipality of Bifrost-Riverton,
but it is expected that most of the growth in the municipality will occur as a result of cottage
development, farm yard splits, and other rural residential outside of the Village of Riverton and Town
of Arborg.
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SERVICING NEW DEVELOPMENT
The vacant inventory and projected supply and demand analysis found that there is enough vacant
land in the Town of Arborg and Village of Riverton to accommodate future population growth. In
addition, there is some room for growth outside of the urban centres of Arborg and Riverton. The
following section outlines the cost to service the lands that have been designated for residential
development and that would be most likely to accommodate future growth.
The following assumptions were used to estimate the cost of servicing:
The quantities shown are approximate;
The size of
Water mains are 150mm.
Sewer mains are 200mm.
Water/sewer service connections is 20mm/100mm.
New roads are assumed to be asphalt paved with curb and gutter to existing drains or surface
ditches;
All cost figures are approximate orders-of-magnitude. More refined budgets will require specific
investigations prior to development and actual costs will vary based upon site conditions and
construction market conditions;
Linear costs for water mains: $300/m including pipe, valves, hydrants, fittings (tees etc.)
Linear costs for sewer mains: $300/m including pipe and manholes
Unit costs for lot service connections: $3500/ea. for water/sewer in subdivisions, $5000/ea. W&S
on existing roads (incl tunneling or asphalt repair); $2000 sewer only (Riverton);
Linear costs for roads: $800/m incl excavation, base, asphalt, curb & gutter (Arborg). As most roads
in Riverton are not paved (including the newer Coghill Bay development), it is assumed that
additional developments needing roads would incorporate open ditch drainage and gravel
surfacing, at a cost of $300/m;
Per acre cost of water, sewer, paved roads (@ 4 lots per acre): $80,000/acre; sewer & gravel roads
only: $38,000/acre; and
Sewage lift stations: $300,000 installed, including prefab fiberglass barrel with all mechanical &
electrical but no standby generator (another $75,000).
7.1
TOWN OF ARBORG
According to available plans, the following parcels are contiguous to existing water mains, sewer mains
and roads, so servicing would involve only construction of service connections (W&S: $5000/lot
including either tunneling or road restoration):
184,186,187, 189, 192, 193, 243, 255, 261, 262, 456, 530, 553, 554, 555, 558, 591, 640, 641, 656
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The following parcels require services. In many cases, contiguous or neighbouring parcels must be
serviced concurrently:
North-West District
William Street, Parcels 184, 186, 187: require WM & WWS extensions N of 3rd Avenue (100m water
and sewermains @ $600/m = $60,000); road exists; internal servicing (water, sewer, road) for 15 lots
on 4ac $320,000 for a total $380,000 (less if they are not urban/single family lots; if the site is occupied
by a three storey walk-up, internal servicing costs would be less).
Gislason Drive, Parcels 189, 192, 193, 656: this area requires extension of water and sewermains from
William Street and along Gislason Drive ($60,000 + potentially another $60,000 if 184/186/187 are not
also developing along William Street), as well as a sewage lift station ($300,000). The internal servicing
of this area will be (46ac @ $80,000/ac) $3,680,000, for a total $4,040,000-$4,100,000. Due to the size
of the area, servicing can be done in phases.
North District
North District (i.e., north of Palm Avenue and to the east and southeast of Palm) requires a sewage
lift station ($300,000)
Palm Avenue, parcels 553, 554, 555, 558: require water and sewermains and service connections
on St. Peter Street, Birch Street and David Street (600m @ $1000m equivalent) $600,000 plus
road on Birch Street (200m @ 800/m) $160,000 for a total $760,000, plus a share of the new north
end lift station.
North end of David Street, Parcels 261 & 262 require 200m of water and sewermains to be built
back to Palm Avenue (@ $600/m = $120,000) plus internal servicing (9ac @ $80,000/ac) $720,000,
for a total $840,000 plus a share of the new north end sewage lift station.
North-East District
East Boundary Road, parcels 243 & 255: these appear too narrow to create a conventional
cul-de-sac; 243 will only be developable as one single family lot or as a multi-family running
east-west, 255 might accommodate a road with lots on one side. Either one will need a sewer
running west to the new north end lift station, plus a watermain running south to Crosstown
Avenue. The sewer to service 255 from the lift station will cost (300m @ $300/m) $90,000, plus
road (200m @ $800/m) $160,000, plus internal water & sewer ($155,000, with lots only on one
side of the road), plus the watermain down to Crosstown (550m @ $300) $165,000, for a total
$570,000, plus a share of the new north end sewage lift station, less any contributions from the
developer of lot 243 which would piggy-back on those services. There is no point considering 243
on its own, but the incremental additional cost for servicing 243 once 255 is serviced, would be
200m of sewer ($60,000).
South-West District
Parcels 640 & 641 (east of Main Street): Approx. 50m sewer and 75m watermain need to be
extended, plus service connections, at a cost of about $40,000. The road already exists.
Parcels 456 & 591 (north of St. Phillips): Approx. 75m of water and sewermain and services for
each parcel, are needed at a cost of about $50,000.
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Miscellaneous
For those parcels contiguous to existing water and sewer mains but without service piping to the
property line, the estimated cost is $5,000.
7.2
VILLAGE OF RIVERTON
According to plans provided by the Municipality, the following parcels are contiguous to existing sewer
mains and roads, so servicing would involve only construction of service connections ($1750/lot
excluding either tunneling or road restoration):
16, 32, 33, 35, 55, 58, 61, 64, 66, 110, 112, 116, 127 (south half), 138, 141, 155, 157, 167, 175, 178,
180, 187, 229, 239, 278, 280, 282, 284, 285, 324, 331, 334, 336, 337, 343, 346, 357, 358, 395, 396,
399, 400, 401, 407-449 (inclusive; "Coghill Bay")
The following parcels require services. In many cases, contiguous or neighbouring parcels must be
serviced concurrently:
South-West District
PR329/ Thompson Drive: parcels 402-406 require a sewer main and servicing to property lines
(100m & 6 services) $40,000. The PR road is asphalt paved.
William Avenue west of Wood Street: sewer main and street exist; 13 parcels, sewer service lines
$30,000.
William Avenue: 15 parcels (371-375, 377, 453-461), between Wood Street & Tanis Street: street
exists, sewer main and sewer service lines required, $100,000.
North-West District
Riverton Avenue, parcel 500: approx. 22 acres, all internal servicing (sewer, roads, drainage)
($725,000) plus a lift station $300,000, for a total $1,025,000.
Lundi Avenue, south half of parcel 131 is serviceable from the Lundi Avenue sewer, $1750; 132
and north half of 131 need to be serviced by a new sewer on Larus Avenue, along with the north
halves of parcels 125 and 127: possibly 6 lots, $100,000; but a sewer to service parcels 73-80 on
Thorvaldson Street needs to be constructed first.
Thorvaldson Street, parcels 73-80, sewer and service lines, $74,000.
Central District (east of old rail line, west of river)
Parcel 493, 6 ac, internal sewer servicing for 24 lots, $186,000.
Parcels 10, 14, 15, 17, 41, 43, 44, 46, sewer and service lines, $74,000.
East District (east of river)
Thompson Drive, Parcel 364, possibly 6 lots, $70,000.
King Street SE, Parcel 145, short sewer extension & service line, $14,000.
King Street SE, Parcels 151 & 152, possibly 10 lots, sewer & service lines, $168,000.
Queen Street, parcels 311-316 & 320 7 lots, sewer & service lines, $117,000.
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Front Street, parcels 295 & 297, sewer & service lines, $33,000.
Front Street, west side of parcel 273, extended service line, $8000; east side of lot already
serviceable from existing King Street sewer.
Front Street, parcels 287 & 290, sewer & service lines, $63,000.