Economic Development Action Plan (January 2022)

Grand Bay-Westfield, New Brunswick

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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ACTION PLAN TOWN OF GRAND BAY-WESTFIELD JANUARY 2022 Economic Development Action Plan Contents Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Understanding ................................................................................................................................. 1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 2 Data Analyses ................................................................................................................................. 3 Shift Share Analysis ........................................................................................................................................ 3 Location Quotient Analysis ........................................................................................................................... 5 Business Base Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 6 Interview Findings ........................................................................................................................... 9 Action Plan .................................................................................................................................... 12 Business Support ......................................................................................................................................... 13 Place Making and Branding ....................................................................................................................... 18 Development Support ................................................................................................................................. 22 Closing .......................................................................................................................................... 25 Appendix ....................................................................................................................................... 26 Shift Share Data ............................................................................................................................................ 26 Location Quotient Data ............................................................................................................................... 28 Business Distribution Data ......................................................................................................................... 29 Economic Development Action Plan 1 Introduction Source: Town of Grand Bay-Westfield. Grand Bay-Westfield is a community located northwest of Saint John, nestled between the Loch Alva Nature Preserve and the Saint John River. The Town of Grand Bay-Westfield seeks guidance for economic vitality in the community, aligning with the most recent Strategic Plan. Thus, this Economic Development Action Plan provides recommendations based on strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and challenges in the community. The Town of Grand Bay-Westfield must dedicate energy to this Economic Development Action Plan for at least five years, if not indefinitely. Understanding The Town of Grand Bay-Westfield seeks guidance for economic vitality to fund resources in the community. In doing so, the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield ultimately seeks to expand the population base to expand the development necessary to serve a thriving community. The Town of Grand Bay-Westfield also seeks to identify a business base that would simultaneously preserve and compliment the flourishing cottage community atmosphere. To achieve economic vitality, the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield must also enhance capacity for economic development. The Town of Grand Bay-Westfield limits capacity through challenges in bandwidth and infrastructure under bureaucratic administration. Nonetheless, the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield retains some incentives that can be leveraged to enhance capacity in pursuit of economic development. Economic Development Action Plan 2 Furthermore, the Mayor and Council have recently adopted the Strategic Plan for the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield, which can also enhance capacity: Strategic Priority 1 Population Growth to Achieve Financial Sustainability Strategic Priority 2 Organizational Capacity Strategic Priority 3 Infrastructure Sustainability and Climate Adaptation Strategic Priority 4 Community Vitality Economic development has a part to play in each of these priorities. Thus, this Economic Development Action Plan provides guidance for the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield to achieve these strategic priorities in the years to come. Methodology We used the following tools to build the Economic Development Action Plan for the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield. These tools were designed to expand our understandings on: - How the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield performs inside the community, through Literature Reviews and Interviews, - How the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield performs outside the community, through Data Analyses, - How the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield can strategize and spearhead economic development, as noted throughout this Action Plan. We expanded our understandings on the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield using the following tools: - Literature Review: The Town of Grand Bay-Westfield provided 35 documents that covered previous studies and plans prepared for the community. These documents provided an understanding of the work already performed and executed for the community. - Data Analyses: We examined data related to the labor force compositions, which provided an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses associated with trends in the community. We constructed a Location Quotient Analysis and a Shift Share Analysis from this data. A Location Quotient Analysis compares the proportion of employment by industry in the Economic Development Action Plan 3 community to the proportion of employment by industry in the country. In doing so, we then highlighted industry specializations in the local economy. On the other hand, a Shift Share Analysis compares any changes in employment by industry in the community to any changes in employment by industry in the country. In doing so, we then identified changes in employment unique to the local economy. - Interviews: we conducted a series of interviews with residents involved in the economic activity in the community. These interviews provided significant insights into the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and challenges in the economic vitality of the community. These tools provided the framework for this Economic Development Action Plan and ultimately, for future vitality in the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield. Data Analyses The Town of Grand Bay-Westfield is positioned in a region with expanding industries, ranging from manufacturing to technology. These industries are unfortunately expanding elsewhere in the region, highlighting the significance of an Economic Development Action Plan for the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield. Shift Share Analysis A Shift Share Analysis is used to recognize industries considered to have comparative advantages in a community. A Shift Share Analysis ultimately compares any changes in employment by industry in the community to any changes in employment by industry in the country. We performed a Shift Share Analysis using employment information from 2016 and 2020, breaking down changes in employment by industry into the following driving forces: Mix Change Changes happening across the country, but across a particular industry. Share Change Changes happening across the country, but across several industries. Shift Share Changes that are simultaneously specific to an industry and a community. This is the change that points to opportunities and challenges for the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield. Economic Development Action Plan 4 Figure 1. Shift Share Analysis Source: Statistics Canada, ESRI Business Analyst. We can now look at an evolving economy, as seen in the Mix Change trends in the Shift Share Analysis. There were decreases in some industries, such as manufacturing, and increases in some industries, such as professional services, across the country. Note that while there may be decreases in some industries, that does not mean declines, but rather that recent changes in employment are being outpaced in other industries. We can then combine the Mix Change trends with the Share Change trends, which show the expected changes in employment based on other factors across the country. According to the Share Change trends, there were significant increases across many industries, particularly health care. We can then calculate the Shift Share from the difference between Mix Change and Share Change, which represents any comparative advantages in a community, that are not explained by any remaining factors across the country. The Town of Grand Bay-Westfield has experienced negative Shift Share trends across many industries, which indicate an underperformance relative to the rest of the country. Thus, these trends indicate that the employment base in Grand Bay- Westfield is not growing fast enough to remain competitive with the rest of the country. -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Mix Change Share Change Shift Share Economic Development Action Plan 5 Nonetheless, Grand Bay-Westfield can become competitive in some industries, such as logistics and real estate, as the community works toward economic vitality in the years to come. Location Quotient Analysis A Location Quotient Analysis is used to indicate any industry concentration in a community relative to another community. This quotient is calculated by dividing the share of industry employment in a community by the average share of industry employment across the country. A quotient greater than one indicates that a community has an above average employment base in an industry, or an economic base. A quotient less than one indicates that a community has a below average employment base in an industry. The table below depicts the relevant Location Quotients for Grand Bay-Westfield along with comparison points for Saint John, Quispamsis, and Rothesay. These comparison points provide context to support the Location Quotients for Grand Bay-Westfield, as these communities share the features associated with the Greater Saint John Region. Table 1. Location Quotient Analysis Industry Grand Bay-Westfield Saint John Quispamsis Rothesay Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting 0.244 0.194 0.258 0.359 Mine, Quarry, Oil, and Gas Extraction 0.773 0.582 1.281 0.546 Utilities 2.829 1.944 3.052 2.641 Construction 1.220 0.913 0.947 0.726 Manufacturing 0.937 0.611 0.841 0.640 Wholesale Trade 1.424 1.113 1.308 1.335 Retail Trade 1.158 1.163 0.973 0.874 Transportation and Warehousing 0.703 0.865 0.704 0.789 Information and Cultural Industries 0.628 0.954 1.072 1.230 Finance and Insurance 1.190 0.904 0.959 1.003 Real Estate 0.325 0.709 0.493 1.098 Professional and Technical Services 0.857 0.872 1.032 1.238 Companies and Enterprises Management 0.000 0.764 1.127 1.110 Waste Management and Remediation 0.717 2.086 0.847 0.908 Educational Services 0.724 0.747 1.148 1.251 Health Care and Social Assistance 1.238 1.323 1.256 1.387 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 0.749 0.741 0.865 0.849 Accommodation and Food Services 0.691 1.142 0.813 1.047 Other 1.171 1.006 1.050 0.827 Public Administration 1.433 0.858 1.145 0.960 Source: Statistics Canada, ESRI Business Analyst. Economic Development Action Plan 6 These Location Quotients indicate that Grand Bay-Westfield has above average employment bases in about half of the available industries. Some industries are also more concentrated in Grand Bay-Westfield than the rest of the Greater Saint John Region, such as construction and wholesale trade. These underlying strengths in some industries suggest that supplementary support would prove valuable in the future. It should also be noted that some growing industries, such as real estate and management, are not as concentrated in Grand Bay-Westfield, suggesting that these industries may need more support in the future. Business Base Analysis We also conducted a Business Base Analysis to support the Shift Share and Location Quotient Analyses. In doing so, we used industry information to identify the business type and size distributions, which provide necessary insights into the business functions in Grand Bay- Westfield. Figure 2. Business Type Distribution Source: Statistics Canada. As seen in Figure 2, more than half of the businesses in Grand Bay-Westfield are concentrated in five industries - construction, finance, professional services, real estate, and retail trade. Not Applicable Management of Companies and Enterprises Public Administration Educational Services Information Accommodation and Food Services Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Waste Management and Remediation Services Transportation and Warehousing Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade Other Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Real Estate, Rental and Leasing Finance and Insurance Construction 0% 5% 10% 15% Economic Development Action Plan 7 Figure 3. Business Size Distribution Source: Statistics Canada. Business size distribution was also examined. As seen in Figure 3, 85 percent of businesses are self-employed businesses or small businesses in Grand Bay-Westfield. This is a particularly fascinating analysis, as these smaller businesses in Grand Bay-Westfield likely need more and different forms of support than that typically provided to larger businesses elsewhere. 68% 17% 7% 6% Without Employees 1-4 Employees 5-9 Employees 10-19 Employees 20-49 Employees 50-99 Employees Economic Development Action Plan 8 Figure 4. Small Business Type Distribution Source: Statistics Canada. Given the small business distribution in Grand Bay-Westfield, we then analyzed the business type distribution once again. Though Figure 1 and Figure 4 are comparable, finance and real estate are now at the forefront of the small business distribution in Grand Bay-Westfield. Industries like finance and real estate would likely need more support from the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield, which would improve their performance in the Location Quotient and Shift Share analyses. Grand Bay-Westfield already has a robust distribution of businesses across a vast distribution of industries, most of which operate as small businesses. Each of these small businesses likely serve a market beyond the community, regarding Grand Bay-Westfield as a suitable base of operation - and likely residence. These three analyses simultaneously indicate that this unique employment base can be directly engaged and supported by actions taken by the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield toward economic vitality. Not Applicable Accommodation and Food Services Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Manufacturing Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Management of Companies and Enterprises Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services Information Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade Other Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Construction Finance and Insurance Real Estate, Rental and Leasing 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Economic Development Action Plan 9 Interview Findings We also conducted a series of interviews with residents involved in the economic activity in the community. We identified four opportunities and challenges for the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield: Real estate and Development, Retail Market Barriers, Identity and Atmosphere, and Business Support. These findings provided qualitative support to the more quantitative findings and ultimately, to the recommendations detailed in this Action Plan. Real Estate and Development Growth is barred by the inability to use both residential and commercial properties. - "The Town is actively seeking business, but they need to be seeking population before business." - Development was slow until the COVID-19 Pandemic. New development is now selling, which may be a good sign for economic outlook. - Colonel Nase Boulevard has remained empty, even after the COVID-19 Pandemic. o The Town had placed various taxes and fees on developing such land, which disincentivized necessary development in the town. (Note that the Town is in the process of removing such fees). o "Colonel Nase Boulevard could become more like Millennium Drive in Quispamsis one day." - Grand Bay-Westfield appears to not have the infrastructure necessary to attract businesses and entrepreneurs, and Colonel Nase Boulevard has not been adequately marketed. - Access to water in Grand Bay-Westfield is better than Quispamsis and Rothesay, but the Town does not use the resource to its potential. o The railway runs along the water, so developers have avoided building near the railway. Economic Development Action Plan 10 Retail Market Barriers Spending remains low in Grand Bay-Westfield, given proximity to Saint John. - "Part of the advantage is that we are twenty minutes from Saint John, part of the disadvantage is that we are twenty minutes from Saint John." - Businesses also find it hard to attract business from residents. o Major employers are already in Saint John, so residents tend to stop along businesses as they drive between home and work. o "Residents seem to want more for Grand Bay-Westfield, but do not support local businesses enough." - Grand Bay-Westfield does not have the amenities that surrounding communities do, like Quispamsis and Rothesay. o For instance, many businesses are located on the other side of the town border with Saint John. Tax revenue then goes directly to Saint John. - Grand Bay-Westfield has always struggled with retaining restaurants and specialty shops. o Specialty shops may attract tourists from New Brunswick, like those in Saint Stephens and Saint Andrews. Identity and Atmosphere Grand Bay-Westfield should leverage the "Cottage Country" atmosphere. - Grand Bay-Westfield is historically known as "Cottage Country," almost like rural Maine. - Given this atmosphere in the town, entry-level home prices are low, which has been attracting young and friendly working-class families. o However, this also limits improvements to old housing stock and poor transportation. o This has also created a physical split in the town, with old housing stock and new housing stock across each other on the Bay. - "Residents take the access to nature for granted." Economic Development Action Plan 11 o There should be a way to leverage the "charm and charisma" of the "Cottage Country" atmosphere. - The older population would like to keep things the way that they are, while the younger population would like to experience some growth. o Market the "Cottage Country" atmosphere better to tourists. o "Who are we marketing to? If we are marketing to New Brunswick, everybody already has a river." Business Support Grand Bay-Westfield should provide support to businesses and entrepreneurs. - "Tourism specifically has to be driven by public and private partnerships, but the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield must first create an entrepreneurial space to support and promote tourism." - Some local businesses and entrepreneurs had great experiences working with the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield, while others did not. o Some have reached out for entrepreneurial support in Grand Bay- Westfield, without avail. This is a greater issue in Saint John and New Brunswick, however. o "I feel very alone in the entrepreneurial space in Grand Bay- Westfield." - Local businesses and entrepreneurs would like to feel more connected to the town. Economic Development Action Plan 12 Action Plan Source: Town of Grand Bay-Westfield. The Town of Grand Bay-Westfield certainly holds a vibrant future, thanks to the businesses and organizations working toward improving and promoting the local economy. The challenge for the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield, however, lies in ensuring that these parties are working together simultaneously, implementing these aligned efforts toward economic vitality. The following Action Plan suggests the means for such alignment, along with the structure for engagement and adjustment, as proven necessary. These Action Areas and Action Items should address the opportunities and challenges found in the aforementioned quantitative and qualitative information, ultimately supporting a more vibrant future for the Town of Grand Bay- Westfield. Action Area Action Item Business Support - Networking Organization - Support Program - Web Presence - Direct Outreach Place Making and Branding - Brand Positioning - Brand Messaging - Web Presence - Thematic Map Development Support - Incentive and Fee Evaluation - Opportunity Brochure - Direct Outreach Economic Development Action Plan 13 Business Support Growth will not only come from business attraction, but also business expansion, especially in the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield. To promote business expansion, the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield must align resources and services to meet the needs and wants of the existing business base. In doing so, the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield and the existing business base can then simultaneously nurture a thriving entrepreneurial ecosystem in the coming years. Economic Development Action Plan 14 Business Support Networking Organization Description A networking organization was found necessary to help small businesses and entrepreneurs succeed in Grand Bay-Westfield. By developing a support organization, the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield can stand as "Neighbors by Nature," encouraging one another to share the resources and services necessary to succeed together. Tasks - Identify existing Business Networking Groups - including those exclusively on social media platforms, such as Facebook. - In doing so, also identify any networking groups necessary for the future - Does the community need a New Businesses Group? Does the community need a Young Entrepreneurs Group? - Collaborate with existing small businesses and entrepreneurs to leverage best practices and ultimately, cultivate a more integrated entrepreneurial ecosystem. - Engage small businesses and entrepreneurs to mature the entrepreneurship agenda for the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield. Timing - Immediate/Near Term (within 1 year) Economic Development Action Plan 15 Business Support Support Program Description A business support program can help small businesses and entrepreneurs access the resources and services necessary to start and run a business in a small community like Grand Bay- Westfield. This support program can also align with the networking group to encourage small businesses and entrepreneurs to support one another as they start and run their businesses in the same entrepreneurial ecosystem. Tasks - Audit and document existing resources and services for small businesses and entrepreneurs. - Reach out to small businesses and entrepreneurs about necessary resources and services, ensuring that trending needs and wants are elevated within the entrepreneurial agenda. - Prepare a program of resources and services for new businesses and entrepreneurs, readily available and accessible on the website. Timing - Immediate/Near Term (within 1 year) Description Economic Development Action Plan 16 Business Support Web Presence A consolidated web presence on starting and running a business in Grand Bay-Westfield is necessary for future business attraction and expansion in the community. We found that having a consolidated web presence listing available resources and services would be valuable for existing businesses and credible for future businesses considering joining the community. Tasks - Consolidate existing links, Including Business Listings, Development Controls, Development Opportunities, and Contact Information, under one listing named "Starting or Running a Business in Grand Bay-Westfield" on the website. - Include future links, including Networking Organization, Support Program, and Opportunity Brochure, to the listing as established. - Updating the website to include local resources and services should be prioritized. The website can also include any provincial and federal guidelines in the future, as necessary. Timing - Near term (1-2 years). Then updated as new programs and information become available. Economic Development Action Plan 17 Business Support Direct Outreach Description The Town of Grand Bay-Westfield must reach out to existing small businesses and entrepreneurs to understand their experiences in the community and share relevant services and resources. Building these relationships with small businesses and entrepreneurs can further the entrepreneurial ecosystem in the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield. The Town of Grand Bay-Westfield must also reach out to potential small businesses and entrepreneurs in the future. To do so, the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield can organize a group of community hosts that can connect with business owners as they consider locating and operating in the community. Tasks - Develop an outreach plan for existing small business and entrepreneurs in the community. In doing so, understand their needs and wants for the future - what do they need to succeed in the community? Are they aware of the services and resources available to them? - Select community hosts for prospective small businesses and entrepreneurs, likely those who have some knowledge or experience of their needs and wants. - Along with these community hosts, reach out to prospective business owners to ensure that they are welcomed to the entrepreneurial ecosystem in the community, as necessary. Timing Economic Development Action Plan 18 Business Support - Immediate (within 6 months). Business outreach, retention and expansion are fundamental to the success of any economic development initiative Place Making and Branding Branding provides the means to define and advertise the identity of the Town of Grand Bay- Westfield to residents, visitors, and businesses. Through brand positioning and brand messaging, the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield can then focus efforts toward placemaking, which bridges the gap between brand and space. Branding and place making thus depend on the Branding Identity and Communication Strategy crafted by Inspired by Understanding for the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield in 2019. The goal of these Action Items is to continue the implementation this Branding Identity and Communication Strategy, as this existing work will provide the foundation to defining and advertising Grand Bay- Westfield as a place of interest to residents, visitors, and businesses. Economic Development Action Plan 19 Place Making and Branding Brand Positioning Description A brand positioning statement outlines exactly what the area is and the benefits it provides, for whom, and what makes the community different. The idea behind it is to create a unique niche in the minds of residents, visitors, and businesses in Grand Bay-Westfield. Tasks - Review the existing Branding Identity and Communication Strategy to develop an internal brand positioning statement. - Share this brand positioning statement internally, ensuring that positioning is implemented particularly when communicating the Action Items identified in this Action Plan. Timing - Mid-term (2-3 years) Brand Messaging Description Brand messaging refers to the underlying value proposition conveyed, and language used in future content. This messaging makes residents, visitors, and businesses relate to the brand by inspiring, persuading, and motivating them, ultimately creating more interest for the Town of Grand Bay- Westfield. Tasks Economic Development Action Plan 20 Place Making and Branding - Alongside the brand positioning statement, review the existing Branding Identity and Communication Strategy to develop an external brand messaging. - Ensure that this brand messaging is implemented particularly when communicating the Action Items identified in this Action Plan. Timing - Mid-term (2-3 years) Web Presence Description Even before the COVID-19 Pandemic, online tools were the preferred means of marketing and learning about a location. Thus, having a robust online presence can greatly improve Grand Bay- Westfield's branding as a place of interest. Though the existing website is efficient and accessible, several listings can be consolidated and updated. In doing so, the Town of Grand Bay- Westfield can provide a more direct "one-stop- shop" for users. Tasks Economic Development Action Plan 21 Place Making and Branding - Audit the existing website to ensure that the content aligns with the established Brand Positioning Statement and Brand Messaging. - Identify content on the existing website that may need to be updated. - Consolidate listings that could be categorized together to simplify user navigation, such as Development Controls and Development Opportunities. - Develop a listing for "Starting or Running a Business in Grand Bay-Westfield," as mentioned above. Timing - Near term (1-2 years). Then updated as new branding becomes available. Thematic Map Description A map that shows attractions can be valuable and inspiring for residents, visitors, and businesses in the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield. A thematic map can be used for wayfinding purposes, detailing popular recreation attractions and businesses, ultimately contributing to place making purposed in the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield. Tasks Economic Development Action Plan 22 Place Making and Branding - Following the established brand messaging, create a thematic map with recreation and business attractions, preferably employing and promoting a local artist. - Incorporate a digital version of the thematic map on the website. - Share digital and physical copies with local businesses and organizations. Timing - Near term (1-2 years) Development Support Multiple interviewers mentioned that new development seems barred by the inability to use available land for necessary residential and commercial development in the Town of Grand Bay- Westfield. Evaluating the existing incentives and marketing for new development is necessary to move forward with attracting and retaining new residents and businesses to revitalize the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield. Though this Action Area is dedicated to Development Support, the previous two Action Areas also provide adjacent support for new development in the coming years. Development Support Incentive and Fee Evaluation Description Interviewers mentioned that the existing incentives have proven to be inadequate to attract necessary residential and commercial development to Grand Bay-Westfield. Tasks Economic Development Action Plan 23 Development Support - Evaluate the more recent impacts associated with incentives in Grand Bay- Westfield, particularly and work to market the reduction in development fees recently passed for Colonel Nase Boulevard. - Consider the incentives, charges, and fees in surrounding communities. How competitive are the incentives in Grand Bay-Westfield against those in other communities? - Implement more appropriate incentives, charges, and fees that will stimulate new residential and commercial development in the near future. Timing - Immediate (within 1 year). Readiness initiatives must be completed before any attempts to draw new development. Opportunity Brochure Description An updated brochure that includes necessary market information, development opportunities and incentives, and key contact information may be used to support interest from residential and commercial developers, particularly on Colonel Nase Boulevard. Tasks Economic Development Action Plan 24 Development Support - Use the existing Colonel Nase Boulevard Opportunity Brochure as a framework for an updated Grand Bay-Westfield Opportunity Brochure, that also highlights Colonel Nase Boulevard. - Incorporate a digital version of the brochure on the website. - Share digital and physical copies with local businesses and organizations. Timing - Near term (1-2 years) Direct Outreach Description The Town of Grand Bay-Westfield must reach out to landowners and developers to understand their experiences and expectations in the community. Building these relationships with landowners and developers can further necessary residential and commercial development in the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield. Tasks - Develop an outreach plan for landowners and developers in the community. In doing so, understand their needs and wants for the future - what do they need from the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield to promote development in the community? - Document the findings from outreach and apply such findings to the Incentive Evaluation and Opportunity Brochure, as necessary. Timing Economic Development Action Plan 25 Development Support - Immediate (within 6 months). Business outreach, retention and expansion are fundamental to the success of any economic development initiative Closing We will remain in contact after project completion for appropriate follow-on care for the Town of Grand Bay-Westfield. We feel our job is not over until the client has implemented the plan, and there are always places where our advice and guidance are needed. The Town of Grand Bay- Westfield and its stakeholders will learn from efforts as they execute the Action Plan, and we will be honored to help guide future actions as needed. Economic Development Action Plan 26 Appendix Shift Share Data Canada Grand Bay-Westfield 2016 2020 2016 2020 Population 36,050,000 37,970,000 4,899 4,095 Labour Force 18,672,464 20,356,404 2,759 2,571 Not Applicable 404,359 457,862 60 57 All Industries 18,268,105 19,898,542 2,699 2,514 11: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting 444,682 465,492 16 15 21: Mine, Quarry, Oil, and Gas Extraction 271,295 300,823 31 38 22: Utilities 136,354 157,688 57 53 23: Construction 1,365,012 1,468,002 246 217 31-33: Manufacturing 1,596,579 1,713,236 221 210 41: Wholesale Trade 665,673 730,880 140 129 44-45: Retail Trade 2,110,197 2,278,014 361 347 48-49: Transportation and Warehousing 876,047 955,367 91 97 51: Information and Cultural Industries 420,353 475,212 39 34 52: Finance and Insurance 790,583 878,615 139 129 53: Real Estate, Rental and Leasing 333,313 371,345 16 16 54: Professional, Scientific, and Technical 1,335,125 1,482,727 169 153 55: Management of Companies and Enterprises 28,790 33,286 0 0 56: Waste Management and Remediation 802,411 876,238 85 80 61: Educational Services 1,346,576 1,472,573 144 128 62: Health Care and Social Assistance 2,138,011 2,308,470 391 354 71: Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 379,737 421,849 42 37 72: Accommodation and Food Services 1,283,724 1,392,257 131 125 81: Other 814,701 879,983 141 131 91: Public Administration 1,128,942 1,236,485 239 221 Economic Development Action Plan 27 Shift Share Data Industry Industry Premium Mix Change Share Change Shift Share 11: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting -4.2% -1 1 -2 21: Mine, Quarry, Oil, and Gas Extraction 2.0% 1 3 4 22: Utilities 6.7% 4 5 -13 23: Construction -1.4% -3 22 -48 31-33: Manufacturing -1.6% -4 20 -27 41: Wholesale Trade 0.9% 1 13 -25 44-45: Retail Trade -1.0% -4 33 -43 48-49: Transportation and Warehousing 0.1% 0 8 -2 51: Information and Cultural Industries 4.1% 2 4 -10 52: Finance and Insurance 2.2% 3 13 -26 53: Real Estate, Rental and Leasing 2.5% 0 1 -2 54: Professional, Scientific, and Technical 2.1% 4 15 -35 55: Management of Companies and Enterprises 6.7% 56: Waste Management and Remediation 0.3% 0 8 -13 61: Educational Services 0.4% 1 13 -30 62: Health Care and Social Assistance -1.0% -4 35 -69 71: Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 2.2% 1 4 -10 72: Accommodation and Food Services -0.5% -1 12 -17 81: Other -0.9% -1 13 -21 91: Public Administration 0.6% 1 22 -41 Source: Statistics Canada, ESRI Business Analyst., Statista Notes: 2016 Industry, NAICS 2007. Economic Development Action Plan 28 Location Quotient Data Canada Saint John Grand Bay-Westfield Quispamsis Rothesay Total Population 37,983,097 71,790 4,899 18,943 13,134 Total Labour Force 18,672,464 34,153 2,759 9,701 6,391 Not Applicable 404,359 935 60 131 101 All Industries 18,268,105 33,218 2,699 9,570 6,290 11: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting 444,682 157 16 60 55 21: Mine, Quarry, Oil, and Gas Extraction 271,295 287 31 182 51 22: Utilities 136,354 482 57 218 124 23: Construction 1,365,012 2,267 246 677 341 31-33: Manufacturing 1,596,579 1,773 221 703 352 41: Wholesale Trade 665,673 1,347 140 456 306 44-45: Retail Trade 2,110,197 4,462 361 1,076 635 48-49: Transportation and Warehousing 876,047 1,378 91 323 238 51: Information and Cultural Industries 420,353 729 39 236 178 52: Finance and Insurance 790,583 1,300 139 397 273 53: Real Estate, Rental and Leasing 333,313 430 16 86 126 54: Professional, Scientific, and Technical 1,335,125 2,117 169 722 569 55: Management of Companies and Enterprises 28,790 40 0 17 11 56: Waste Management and Remediation 802,411 3,044 85 356 251 61: Educational Services 1,346,576 1,830 144 810 580 62: Health Care and Social Assistance 2,138,011 5,145 391 1,407 1,021 71: Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 379,737 512 42 172 111 72: Accommodation and Food Services 1,283,724 2,666 131 547 463 81: Other 814,701 1,491 141 448 232 91: Public Administration 1,128,942 1,761 239 677 373 Source: Statistics Canada, ESRI Business Analyst. Notes: 2016 Industry, NAICS 2007. Economic Development Action Plan 29 Business Distribution Data Business Type Distribution Industry Number of Businesses Share of Businesses 23: Construction 31 14% 52: Finance and Insurance 24 10% 54: Professional, Scientific, and Technical 23 10% 53: Real Estate, Rental and Leasing 23 10% 81: Other 20 9% 44-45: Retail Trade 19 8% 62: Health Care and Social Assistance 12 5% 56: Waste Management and Remediation 8 3% 48-49: Transportation and Warehousing 8 3% 71: Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 5 2% 72: Accommodation and Food Services 4 2% 11: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting 4 2% 31-33: Manufacturing 4 2% 41: Wholesale Trade 4 2% 61: Educational Services 3 1% 51: Information and Cultural Industries 3 1% 55: Management of Companies and Enterprises 2 1% 91: Public Administration 2 1% Not Applicable 30 13% Total 229 100% Economic Development Action Plan 30 Business Distribution Data Small Business Type Distribution Industry Number of Businesses Share of Businesses 53: Real Estate, Rental and Leasing 22 14% 52: Finance and Insurance 21 14% 23: Construction 18 12% 54: Professional, Scientific, and Technical 15 10% 81: Other 13 8% 62: Health Care and Social Assistance 8 5% 44-45: Retail Trade 8 5% 48-49: Transportation and Warehousing 6 4% 56: Waste Management and Remediation 3 2% 61: Educational Services 3 2% 51: Information and Cultural Industries 3 2% 41: Wholesale Trade 3 2% 71: Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 2 1% 55: Management of Companies and Enterprises 2 1% 72: Accommodation and Food Services 1 1% 11: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting 1 1% 31-33: Manufacturing 1 1% Not Applicable 25 16% Total 155 100% Source: Statistics Canada, ESRI Business Analyst. Notes: 2016 Industry, NAICS 2007.