Municipality of Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan (Final Report Rev.1)
Grand Lake, New Brunswick
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Municipality of Grand Lake
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
Final Report Rev1
261201.00 - March 2026
Image: Tourism NB, Province of New Brunswick
02
Final Report Rev 1
L. Bolton
14-Apr-2026
S. Sundarraj
01
Final Report
L. Bolton
31-Mar-2026
S. Sundarraj
00
Draft Report
L. Bolton
25-Mar-2026
S. Sundarraj
Rev.
Issue
Reviewed By:
Date
Issued By:
This document was prepared for the party indicated
herein. The material and information in the
document reflects CBCL Limited's opinion and best
judgment based on the information available at the
time of preparation. Any use of this document or
reliance on its content by third parties is the
responsibility of the third party. CBCL Limited accepts
no responsibility for any damages suffered as a result
of third party use of this document.
Project No. 261201.00
April 14, 2026
Tiffany (English) Ward, CPA
Municipality of Grand Lake
420 Pleasant Drive, Minto, NB E4B 2T3
[email protected]
Dear Tiffany Ward:
RE:
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan - Final Report
CBCL is pleased to provide a Climate Change Adaptation Plan (CCAP) for the Municipality of Grand
Lake. The attached report includes an evaluation of climate change and extreme weather impacts
to the Municipality's infrastructure, assets, community, and environment. Adaptation actions are
presented for the highest ranked climate change and extreme weather-related vulnerabilities
identified, including flooding, heatwaves, water quality and quantity, wildfire and air quality
concerns, as well as extreme rainfall, among others. Adaptation actions were developed with input
from the steering committee.
This project was completed as a partnership between NB DELG, Grand Lake, and CBCL.
Yours very truly,
CBCL Limited
Prepared by:
Reviewed by:
Stephen Sundarraj
Lindsay Bolton, P.Eng.
Climate Resilience Specialist
Manager, Water Resources & Climate Change
E-Mail: [email protected]
CC: Prativa Pradhan
Project No.: 261201.00
This document was prepared for the party indicated herein. The material and information in the document reflects CBCL Limited's opinion
and best judgment based on the information available at the time of preparation. Any use of this document or reliance on its content by
third parties is the responsibility of the third party. CBCL Limited accepts no responsibility for any damages suffered as a result of third-
party use of this document.
Maritime Centre, 1505 Barrington Street, Suite 901, Box 606, Halifax, NS,
B3J 2R7 | 902-421-7241 | CBCL.ca | [email protected]
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan i
Department of Environment and Local Government
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan ii
Acknowledgement
CBCL would like to acknowledge the collaborative efforts of the Municipality of Grand Lake,
the Government of New Brunswick, and the Steering Committee in the development of this
Climate Change Adaptation Plan. The Steering Committee consists of the following
members:
Tiffany Ward, Treasurer
Danny Hargrove, EMO Coordinator
Jason Leblanc, Sewer Technician
Shawn Patterson, Councillor
Randy Hickey, Fire Department
Olga Gudkova, Economic Development Officer
Katelyn Belknap, Horizon Health Network Community Developer
Prativa Pradhan, NBDELG Adaptation Analyst
This project was made possible by funding provided through the Government of New
Brunswick.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan iii
Executive Summary
The Municipality of Grand Lake is facing growing climate-related pressures on public safety,
local infrastructure, and overall community well-being. In response, and with support from
the Government of New Brunswick, Grand Lake has initiated the development of a Climate
Change Adaptation Plan (CCAP). This plan is intended to improve understanding of current
and future climate risks and to identify practical, locally tailored actions that will strengthen
resilience across the region. The CCAP is designed to guide long-term decision-making,
support infrastructure and land-use planning, and enhance community preparedness as
climate conditions continue to change.
The primary objective of this project is to provide Grand Lake with a coordinated,
evidence-based approach to climate adaptation. The CCAP focuses on identifying
vulnerabilities, prioritizing key risks, and outlining strategic recommendations that reflect
community values, anticipated development, and environmental stewardship goals. The
resulting plan offers clear, actionable steps that the municipality and local partners can
undertake to strengthen resilience.
Built infrastructure, natural assets, and community services were assessed to identify
which assets were most vulnerable to extreme weather and long-term climatic shifts. Risks
were evaluated using publicly available information on existing community assets and
resources, historical and projected climate data, documented climate impacts, and local
insights gathered through community engagement.
Key climate hazards considered included:
Riverine flooding
Extreme rainfall
Extreme hot and cold temperatures
Snow and ice
Extreme winds
Hurricanes and winter storms
Drought
Wildfires
Community assets evaluated in the assessment included emergency response
capabilities, high risk facilities and public health more broadly, culturally or recreationally
significant locations, roads and bridges, residential and commercial buildings, stormwater
management systems, sewer collection system (including wastewater treatment plant),
potable water supply, and tourism.
The risk assessment prioritized vulnerabilities based on the likelihood of occurrence and
potential impacts on the community. Based on these results, this CCAP outlines a series of
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan iv
recommendations aimed at reducing risk, protecting infrastructure and natural systems,
and strengthening community preparedness.
Recommended actions items fall within the following categories:
Riverine Flood Preparedness and Mitigation
Emergency Preparedness
Heat-related Risks and Preparedness
Extreme Rainfall Resilience
Wildfire Resilience Planning
Drought Management Planning
Each category includes a suite of recommended actions intended to strengthen community
resilience, along with suggested timelines, potential partners and resources, and estimated
levels of effort.
Ongoing monitoring and evaluation will be crucial for the long-term success of the plan. As
climate conditions, development patterns, and community needs evolve, the adaptation
strategy must remain flexible and responsive. Regular progress reviews, updates to risk
information, and assessments of the effectiveness of implemented actions will help ensure
the plan remains current and effective.
The adaptation actions outlined in this plan provide a clear and practical pathway for
Grand Lake to reduce vulnerabilities, enhance emergency preparedness, and build
long-term climate resilience. It is expected that next steps will involve soliciting input from
the community on the recommendations presented in this report, to tailor the execution
strategy to the community's needs.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan v
Contents
Acknowledgement ........................................................................................... ii
Executive Summary ........................................................................................ iii
1
Introduction ............................................................................................1
Climate Change Adaptation Objectives ............................................................................... 1
Background and Historical Extreme Weather Events ....................................................... 2
1.2.1
2018 and 2019 Floods ........................................................................................... 4
1.2.2
Historical Extreme Weather Events ..................................................................... 6
Key Infrastructure and Community Assets ......................................................................... 6
Scope and Methodology ...................................................................................................... 13
2
Climate Change and Extreme Weather ............................................ 14
Climate Parameters .............................................................................................................. 14
Emission Scenarios ............................................................................................................... 17
Projection Horizons .............................................................................................................. 17
Climate Projections ............................................................................................................... 17
2.4.1
Precipitation and Flooding .................................................................................. 18
2.4.2
Temperature ......................................................................................................... 22
2.4.3
Extreme Weather ................................................................................................. 25
2.4.4
Other Hazards ...................................................................................................... 32
Projection Scores .................................................................................................................. 37
3
Risk and Vulnerability Assessment ................................................... 39
Impact Assessment ............................................................................................................... 40
Community Consultation ..................................................................................................... 43
Risk Matrix ............................................................................................................................. 45
Prioritization of Risks ............................................................................................................ 46
4
Adaptation Plan................................................................................... 48
Priority Based Adaptation Actions...................................................................................... 49
4.1.1
Riverine Flood Preparedness and Mitigation ................................................... 49
4.1.2
Emergency Response Planning .......................................................................... 64
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan vi
4.1.3
Preparing for Heatwaves .................................................................................... 70
4.1.4
Extreme Rainfall Resilience ................................................................................. 71
4.1.5
Wildfire Resilience Plan ....................................................................................... 74
4.1.6
Drought Management Plan ................................................................................ 76
Monitoring and Implementation ........................................................................................ 79
5
Conclusions ......................................................................................... 81
Appendices
A
Flood Risk Maps
B
Risk Assessment Matrix
C
Summary of Recommended Action Items
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 1
1 Introduction
New Brunswick has seen notable changes in its climate over the past few decades including
warmer seasons, frequent rain events, high intensity storms, rising sea levels, and extreme
flooding, among others. These climate hazards pose a threat to people, infrastructure,
essential services, natural assets, and municipal operations. On the other hand, climatic
variability can also provide opportunities such as a longer growing season for agriculture,
warmer weather for recreation and tourism, and reduced snow clearing.
The Municipality of Grand Lake faces challenges under changing climate conditions, like
many other municipalities in the province. Some of the observed changes in the region's
climate include:
Higher temperatures
Increasing rainfall intensity
Overland flooding
Erosion
High Winds
Wildfire smoke
To respond proactively to these changes, Grand Lake has developed a Climate Change
Adaptation Plan (CCAP). The plan is intended to provide guidance on integrating adaptation
into existing municipal operations, infrastructure management, emergency planning, and
development plans.
Climate Change Adaptation Objectives
A changing climate poses varying degrees of risks to the natural environment, built
infrastructure, well-being, and economy. The primary objective of a CCAP is to provide a
roadmap to not only proactively address the threats induced by extreme weather events to
the local population and essential services, but also to add resilience to critical
infrastructure that are susceptible to the adverse effects of a changing climate.
A holistic knowledge of the local climate, community, and assets can be achieved through
engagement with stakeholders such as local governments, businesses, residents, and
environmental organisations. Engaging stakeholders supports a deeper understanding of
the vulnerabilities and opportunities present within the community. Additionally, it ensures
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 2
a comprehensive and inclusive strategy that reflects the diverse interests and concerns of
the community.
The health and safety of residents and visitors is a priority, particularly during extreme
weather events. Along with protecting critical infrastructure assets, other key objectives of
the Grand Lake CCAP include prioritizing educating residents on potential climate impacts,
strategies for mitigating risks, and identifying opportunities that will further advance
adaptation actions through community-driven efforts. In essence, the purpose of the CCAP
is to create a resilient and sustainable future by addressing the challenges posed by
climate change through a prioritized actionable plan.
This project is being supported by a Steering Committee, made of up individuals with
experience in municipal operations, emergency response, public health, and municipal
governance, among others. This report was made possible through valuable contributions
from:
Tiffany Ward, Treasurer
Danny Hargrove, EMO Coordinator
Jason Leblanc, Sewer Technician
Shawn Patterson, Councillor
Randy Hickey, Fire Department
Olga Gudkova, Economic Development Officer
Katelyn Belknap, Horizon Health Network Community Developer
Prativa Pradhan, NBDELG Adaptation Analyst
Background and Historical Extreme
Weather Events
The Municipality of Grand Lake was incorporated on Jan 1, 2023, through the
amalgamation of the then Village of Minto and Village of Chipman, along with additional
annexations of certain unincorporated areas contiguous to the Municipality (Local
Governments Establishment Regulation - Local Governance Act, 2022). Figure 1-1 shows
the municipal boundary for Grand Lake.
Besides coal mining, which was a major industry from the 1630s until 2010, Forestry and
Tourism are the two major industries of the region (About Us - Municipality of Grand Lake,
2023).
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 3
Figure 1-1 Municipal Boundary for the Municipality of Grand Lake (GeoNB, 2026)
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 4
Figure 1-2 Municipal Boundary for the Municipality of Grand Lake (GeoNB, 2026)
The municipality is home to Atlantic Canada's largest freshwater lake, Grand Lake (171
km2), that hosts recreational activities such as boating, swimming, and fishing. Other
popular outdoor recreational activities in the area include mountain biking, hiking,
camping, snowmobiling, and ice fishing. The current rural population of 5,800 is expected
to increase by 40% in the coming years and reach a population of over 8,000 (About Us -
Municipality of Grand Lake, 2023).
1.2.1 2018 and 2019 Floods
Historically, the region has been subject to multiple extreme weather events. In more
recent years, riverine floods, intense rains, strong wind gusts, and ice jams have been the
most common natural threats in the area.
In 2018 and 2019, Grand Lake experienced extreme flooding as a result of back-to back 1 in
100-year floods on the Saint John River due to rainfall and snowmelt in the tributary
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 5
watershed. In the 2019 spring flood, the municipality saw water levels reaching 6.63 m
(CGVD 28), which is 1.63 m above flood stage (Environment and Local Government, 2019).
The high-water levels, in combination with gusts around 60 km/h, gave rise to waves
ranging from three to four feet high, resulting in smashed windows and flooded basements
(Bosse & Morin, 2019).
The following impacts and responses were noted following these events:
Road Closures and Flooded Roads: On May 5, 2018, all roads to the Village of Chipman
(Route 10, Route 123, and Route 116) were closed due to flooding. Transportation was
set up to move people, groceries and other supplies in and out of Chipman via the
railway bridge in town. Mail and newspaper services were suspended, leaving the
community of just over 1,000 feeling cut off from the rest of the province (Perry, 2019).
In 2018, Route 690, a main access road was completely submerged in Princess Park
area (RetroNB, 2018). Bronson Settlement Rd was brought to a better condition when
Route 10 was closed during the 2018 floods (Yoursaintjohn.ca, 2018)
Infrastructure Damage: Docks, stairs, and other parts of homes and cottages were
broken loose from the floods and high winds and were carried away. Three-to-four-foot
waves crashed homes, ripped off sidings, and detached a deck (Campbell, 2019). As
noted during community consultation, there were many private properties (primarily
cottages and homes) destroyed when waves knocked homes off their foundations or
collapsed walls and basements.
Power Outages: Chunks of ice knocked down a series of power poles in 2019 (CBC,
2019). Power poles were knocked, snapped, or pushed away (RetroNB, 2019).
Tree Fall and Erosion: Debris cleanup took place on the Nature Conservancy's Keyhole
property on the west side of Grand Lake near Princess Park. The land is also home to
rare bur oak trees and marshland, with only eight known populations of bur oak
remaining in New Brunswick. Aaron Dowding, the New Brunswick stewardship manager
of the Nature Conservancy of Canada, said that this area is only one of two protected
bur oak groves in the forest. "We've lost much of what we used to have and what we do
have. Some of the trees are 400 years old and are a unique floodplain forest," she
told Shift New Brunswick. Also note that the debris clean-up was still active in Aug
2022, years after the 2018-2019 floods that displaced nearly 1,100 residents along the
St. John River and nearby lakes (Prapti Bamaniya, 2022). Erosion barriers were damaged
or moved further downstream. Trees were uprooted and road signs were found
scattered (RetroNB, 2019)
Flood Event Communications: Review of 2018 flood response found gaps in
communication (New Brunswick Preparedness and Response Spring Freshet 2018 Flood
after Action Review -Advice to Minister, n.d.). The Municipality of Grand Lake has
partnered with 'Voyent Alert!' to provide routine and emergency notifications for events
such as wildfires and floods (Voyent Alert - Municipality of Grand Lake, 2025).
Community Engagement: Jemseg Grand Lake Watershed Association held a workshop
to share flood resilience strategies. About 30 people attended a meeting in Minto on a
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 6
Saturday morning to hear presentations from people who have taken measures to
protect their property (The Weather Network, 2020)
1.2.2 Historical Extreme Weather Events
In addition to flooding, Grand Lake has experienced a number of extreme weather events,
including:
EF-1 Tornado Hits Grand Lake Area, 2013. An EF-1 tornado landed just outside the
municipality in Jemseg and moved easterly. Numerous trees uprooted and at least
three barns destroyed in Whites Cove. Power and communication outages reported
(CBC, 2013).
Wind and Hail Strom, 2017. Localised squalls uprooted trees, broke off branches, and
flung porch items; hailstones seen by a local (CBC, 2017).
Ice Strom and Power Outage, 2017. Chipman Fire Station was used as a warming
center during the 2017 ice storm event (Previl, 2017).
Princess Park Tree Loss Due to Soil Erosion, 2018. Floods erode soil leaving trees with
exposed roots, causing environmental damages, and forcing a potential cut down of
trees (Ibrahim, 2018).
Wind Damage to Residential Buildings, 2018. Wind-driven waves moved a fully intact
two-storey cottage across Grand Lake up to a distance of 6kms (Fowler, 2018).
Wildfire, 2020. Three fires about 30 km NW of Chipman were reported in 2020 but they
were significantly smaller compared to the ones in 2025 (Harding, 2020).
Heat Wave, 2021. Heat warning issued to Grand Lake as temperatures were expected
to reach 31°C in 2021 (CBC, 2021).
Grand Lake Cyanobacteria Bloom, 2025. Cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) bloom
confirmed most recently in Grand Lake, NB on August 7, 2025 (Government of New
Brunswick, 2026).
Heat Wave, 2025. Heat warning issued to Grand Lake as multi-day heatwave hits NB,
2025 (Waugh, 2025).
Wildfires, 2025. An out-of-control wildfire (Fire 366) east of Grand Lake, 2025
(Telegraph-Journal, 2025).
Blizzards and Winter Storms, various years. Blizzards have forced school closures in
Minto and Chipman on at least two occasions (Blanch & Fraser, 2017) (Waugh, 2026).
Key Infrastructure and Community Assets
Grand Lake is in the process of developing an Asset Management Plan which will detail the
location, condition, and performance of the communities' key assets. At the time of writing
this report, the draft Asset Management Plan is not available. The following summary
outlines municipal and community assets of potential importance for the CCAP.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 7
Grand Lake is expected to grow significantly in the next 2 - 3 years, including an expected
population growth of 40% by 2027 (relative to baseline population in 2021) (Building Grand
Lake, n.d.). As of spring 2025, there were 40 new homes under construction in the Forest
Ave development area, among others. As the municipality continues to attract new
residents and business, supporting infrastructure such as transportation improvements,
sewer system expansion, and housing development planning will be required to support
this growth. A proactive approach to climate change adaption will improve long term
performance of assets, reduce risk, and potentially unlock access to additional funding
mechanisms for which the community relies.
The following assets have been considered in the development of the Grand Lake CCAP:
Transportation and Roads: Both the municipality and province own portions of the
road network through the municipality, and as a result maintenance responsibilities are
shared. Grand Lake works closely with the province to develop a paving plan,
prioritizing roads in the worst condition and highest usage for paving. The Chipman
Airport is a private airport operated by J. D. Irving Woodlands servicing the Grand Lake
Timber Sawmill that employes approximately 400 people (Haggett, 2025).
Bridges and Culverts: All bridges are owned and maintained by the province. Culverts
are owned and maintained by the municipality. The largest bridge in the community is
the Burpee Bridge (Covered Bridges - Municipality of Grand Lake, 2023), a covered
bridge built in 1913 spanning 50 m across the North Gaspereau River. Additional
bridges include:
New construction - Salmon River Bridge on NB-10 in Chipman- expected to
complete in Fall of 2026. Bridge addresses flood issues and has a design lifespan of
75 yrs. Note that there is a temporary modular bridge right next to it (Government
of New Brunswick, 2026)
Coal Creek Bridge #1 on NB-10
Newcastle Centre Rd Bridge connecting Newcastle Centre and Newcastle Creek -
closed in 2025 due to structural safety (Brown, 2025)
Park Street Bridge in Minto
Bridge Street Bridge in Minto
NB - 123 SW of Gaspereau Forks
NB - 116 on Gaspereau Forks
Northside Dr Bridge to the northeast of North Minto
Environmental Assets: The community is surrounded by lakes, rivers, and streams as
outlined in Figure 1-1, as well as dense vegetation as seen in Figure 1-2. Jemseg
Watershed Association actively monitors water quality in the area and has partnered
with Hammond River Angling Association to deploy CyanoTracker in Grand Lake (Water
Quality Monitoring, 2024).
Municipal Operations Buildings: Through amalgamation, Grand Lake now maintains
municipal buildings in both Minto and Chipman. Those include the Minto Office (420
Pleasant Drive) and Chipman Office (10 Civic Court, Unit 1, Chipman). All development
and construction projects in Grand Lake are overseen by the Capital Region Service
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 8
Commission/ Planning and Development (Municipal Planning - Municipality of Grand
Lake, 2023). The Service New Brunswick is located within the Chipman Municipal
Building.
Water Distribution and Treatment: The community of Grand Lake relies on wells for
drinking water, with the exception of a private water treatment plant and distribution
system operated by Province of New Brunswick for the Industrial Park.
Wastewater Collection and Treatment: There is a wastewater collection, pumping
and treatment system in the former downtown area of the Village of Minto and Village
of Chipman. See Figure 1-2 for the location of Pumping Stations (PS) and Wastewater
Treatment Plants (WWTPs). In 2023, the Chipman WWTP received funding for
replacement and upgrade of the WWTP to improve service delivery (Government of
New Brunswick, 2023). Work has not yet been started on the new WWTP.
Stormwater Management: Primarily ditches and culverts throughout the municipality.
There does not appear to be any additional stormwater management infrastructure
such as swales, stormwater detention/ retention systems, or storm sewer.
Emergency Services and Health Centres: There are two Fire Halls in the community,
the Minto Fire Department (187A Main St) and Chipman Fire Hall (10 Civic Court). The
Chipman Fire Station was used as a warming center during the 2017 ice storm (Previl,
2017). Additionally, the community is serviced by the RCMP. The Queens North
Community Health Center and Chipman Health Centre are the community health
centers servicing the region. There is a Provincial Corrections Facility in the community,
that is planned to be operational in 2027 (Cunningham, 2026).
Community Centers and Heritage Buildings: The community has a community
resources center in Minto, as well as the New Brunswick Internment Camp Museum,
Chipman Museum, Chipman Community Heritage Cener, and Chipman Public Library.
In addition to community centers, there are several schools in the area.
Recreation: The community has two arenas, the Chipman Centennial Arena and Minto
Centennial Arena, which also serve as community centers. Additionally, there are
multiple parks including: Gilbert Park, North Minto Park, Hamilton Baird Park, and
Princess Park. Chipman Marina Wharf is a community wharf (Boating - Municipality of
Grand Lake, 2023) and the Newcastle Creek Wharf is operated by Grand Lake Boater's
club. Additionally, there are large ATV and snowmobile trails. Figure 1-3 shows the
location of key community buildings.
Energy: The community is serviced by NB Power and natural gas is supplied by
Enbridge Gas. There is a potential Natural Gas plant discussed for the area.
In addition to physical assets, the community also has development plans, emergency
response plan (New Brunswick Emergency Measures Organization - NBEMO), a municipal
plan, and zoning by-laws.
A summary of the assets included in the CCAP are presented in Table 1.1 below.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 9
Table 1.1: Key Infrastructure and Community Assets Included in the CCAP
Asset Category
Description / Components
Emergency Response and
Management
-
Emergency Measures Organization (EMO) Plan -
NBEMO only (Municipality of Grand Lake NB, 2026)
(NBEMO, n.d.)
-
Emergency shelters
-
Minto and Chipman Fire Hall
-
Queens North Community Health Center and
Chipman Community Care centres
-
Backup power supply at multiple locations (Chipman
Community Heritage Centre, Chipman Fire Hall, Minto
municipal office, an additional portable generator,
and some senior care facilities that already possess or
are in the process of installing backup power in 2026)
-
Communication systems and critical response
coordination from Municipal Office in Minto
Transportation
-
Roads maintained by Municipality/ NBDTI
-
Bridges
Natural Assets
-
Salmon River
-
Rare bur oak trees
-
Other vegetation
Water and Sewer
-
Private potable water wells
-
Wastewater Treatment plants (Chipman to receive a
new WWTP)
-
Sewer collection system and pumping
Stormwater Management
-
Drainage systems including roadside ditches and
culverts
Recreation Assets
-
Chipman Marina Wharf (Boating - Municipality of
Grand Lake, 2023)
-
Docks along Princess Park
-
Beaches
-
Community parks and green spaces
-
Trails (walking and biking, ATV)
-
Recreational facilities - buildings (hockey arenas which
also double up as community spaces)
-
Recreational facilities - outdoors (campgrounds,
boating areas, fishing, swimming)
-
Museums and historic sites (Internment camp, mines,
Burpee Bridge)
Tourism and Economic
Development
-
Forestry (Timber mill)
-
Tourism
-
Chipman Industrial Park
-
Minto Industrial Park
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 10
Asset Category
Description / Components
Commercial and
Residential Buildings
-
Residential homes
-
Private businesses
Land Use Policies
-
Rural Plan - Rural plan by-law and Grand Lake's draft
zoning map (proposed amendments Jan 21, 2026)
-
Development standards and policies
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 11
Figure 1-3 Locations of Pumping Stations (PS) and Wastewater Treatment Plants (WWTPs) in Municipality of Grand Lake.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 12
Figure 1-4 Locations of key community buildings in the Municipality of Grand Lake.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 13
Scope and Methodology
This CCAP is developed in accordance with the NB Department of Environment and Local
Government (NBDELG) guidance document for climate change adaptation planning
developed in 2023, along with overarching objectives of the province's 2022-2027 Climate
Change Action Plan (Our Pathway towards Decarbonization and Climate Resilience, n.d.).
The Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC), led and developed
by Engineers Canada, is a protocol to assess infrastructure vulnerabilities to extreme
weather. The Protocol is scalable and is used to assess various types of infrastructure
across Canada and other parts of the world. It applies a bottom-up approach, starting with
a preliminary assessment to recognize climate-based hazards relevant to the region and
the list of assets that lie within the scope. Following this, threshold values for every relevant
hazard is determined based on standards, codes, design data, operational experiences,
observations, or professional judgement. The best available historical climate data and
future projections are used to evaluate how the relevant climate parameters are likely to
change in the future, and how these changes could impact the community.
A high-level risk and vulnerability assessment is then conducted to understand how each
climate hazard interacts with each of the municipal assets to identify the key areas that
need to be addressed. The assessment is made across three time horizons, 2030s, 2050s,
and 2080s, to evaluate the risks and adaptation needs across short-, medium-, and long-
term planning time horizons respectively. Additionally, the levels of effort required to
respond to the risks are estimated to be low, moderate, or high. High and extreme risks are
prioritized for adaptation plans that are designed to minimize the severity of their
respective impacts.
The outcomes of this process form the foundation for the following chapters of the report,
which present the climate risk assessment results and recommended adaptation actions
for the Municipality of Grand Lake.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 14
2 Climate Change and Extreme
Weather
Canada's annual average temperature has increased at roughly twice that of global average
(Bush and Lemmen, 2019). New Brunswick, likewise, has observed increasing average
temperatures, precipitation intensities, rise in sea levels, flooding events, and coastal
erosion. Climate scientists predict that Atlantic Canada will become progressively warmer,
wetter, and stormier, with longer and more frequent heat waves. Therefore, the impacts to
people, infrastructure, and the environment may present new challenges as well as
opportunities.
The following sections outline various climate indicators applicable to the Municipality of
Grand Lake region and the projected changes that are expected from now to the end of the
century (2100). Preliminary discussions on impacts are also presented. The climate
projections developed were used to assign likelihood scores for the PIEVC risk assessment
to evaluate overall risk and prioritize items for adaptation action, which are summarized at
the end of the Chapter.
Climate Parameters
The list of climate parameters considered for this project was developed by CBCL's risk
assessment team and internal subject matter experts. Selection of these parameters was
based primarily on climate and extreme weather phenomena that are known to impact
community assets or could potentially impact these assets in the future.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 15
Table 2.1 below lists the climate parameters considered in the development of the CCAP
including a brief description of the reasoning for inclusion. It should be noted that the
potential impacts of each climate-asset interaction described may not be fully
encompassing and the Risk Matrix in the Appendix B should be referred to for all identified
climate-asset interactions and resulting impacts.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 16
Table 2.1 Climate Parameters included in Scope of the Project.
Climate
Parameter
Index
Reason for Inclusion in the Project
Warm
Temperatures
Cooling Degree Days
Greater than 18°C
Impacts to vulnerable populations due to
lack of proper AC units, stress on building
HVAC systems, warm water temperatures
impacting various environmental
conditions.
Heat
Extremes
Number of Days with
Maximum Temperature
Greater than 30°C
Impacts to vulnerable populations due to
heat stress, wear and tear to transportation
infrastructure, warm water temperatures
impacting various environmental
conditions.
Freeze-Thaw
Cycles
Number of Days with
Max. Temp Greater than
0°C and Min. Temp Less
than 0°C in the Winter
Season (Dec - Feb)
Impacts to road network, hard standing
surfaces such as parking lots and walkways,
underground infrastructure not located
below the frost line (e.g., wells, septic).
Extreme
Rainfall
1 in 10-year sub-daily
rainfall event
Localized runoff and pooling of water.
Potential environmental concerns from
contaminant transport.
1 in 100-year sub-daily
rainfall event
Overland flow entering the downstream
environment and potentially impacting
water quality. Flooding of infrastructure
including basements or roadways.
Disruption of municipal services.
Riverine
Flooding
1 in 100-year Riverine
Flood Extent
Wide ranging flooding and damage to
buildings, transportation routes, drainage
features such as ditches and culverts, and
recreational or culturally significant areas.
Potential contamination of potable water
sources, environmental degradation.
Snowfall
Days with Snowfall > 10
cm
Impacts to roads/ transportation and
maintenance operations.
Ice Accretion
Ice Accretion Thickness
(1 in 20 year)
Potential impacts to electrical transmission
and power distribution. Potential ice
damming on roofs, and hazards due to
falling ice.
Wind Load
Hourly Wind Pressures (1
in 50 year)
Impacts to structures and natural elements
(e.g., trees, parks, vegetation)
Storms
Frequency and Intensity
of Tropical Storms/
Impacts to structures, roads/
transportation, natural elements (e.g., trees,
parks, vegetation), electrical transmission
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 17
Climate
Parameter
Index
Reason for Inclusion in the Project
Hurricanes & Winter
Storms
and power distribution, source water
quality, exterior electrical/ mechanical
equipment.
Lightning
Average number of days
with lightning (within 25
km)
Impacts to buildings or exterior electrical/
mechanical equipment that is not
grounded.
Wildfire
Intensity and Frequency
of Wildfires
Potential impacts to the community as a
whole (including all municipal assets),
emergency response procedures and
operations of emergency centers, and water
quality.
Drought
Intensity and Frequency
of Drought
Impacts to source (groundwater wells)
water quantity, and natural elements (trees,
vegetation, parks, etc.).
Emission Scenarios
Climate models are driven by different emissions scenarios. The Climate Model
Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) project uses "Representative Concentration Pathways"
(RCPs) to represent different emissions scenarios, whereas the CMIP6 project uses "Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways" (SSP). For this analysis, the higher emissions scenario (RCP 8.5 &
SSP5-8.5) was applied for projections. The higher emissions scenarios represent when the
level of radiative forcing reaches 8.5 W/m2 by 2100. RCP 8.5 accounts for radiative forcing
only through anthropogenic sources, while SSP5-8.5 integrates socioeconomic factors in
the emission scenario.
Projection Horizons
Climate parameters were characterized for "baseline", "near-term" (2030s), "mid-term"
(2050s), and "long-term" (2080s). The baseline represents the historical period, when
measured data are available (e.g., 1981-2010 if available). Project horizons encompass the
following periods:
Baseline: 1981-2010
Near-term (2030s): 2021-2050
Mid-term (2050s): 2041-2070
Long-term (2080s): 2071-2100
Climate Projections
The following sections present the general future projected trend for each climate
parameter, along with preliminary discussions on respective impacts, considered in the
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 18
project scope. For more detailed information, the Risk Matrix in the Appendix B should be
referred to for all identified climate-asset interactions and resulting impacts.
2.4.1 Precipitation and Flooding
In the Grand Lake region, the patterns of extreme rainfall events are expected to change in
the future. Rainfall behaviors are related to temperature, as a warmer atmosphere can
hold more water. Therefore, increased temperature trends can translate into an increase in
rainfall duration and intensity. Additionally, rainfall dynamics are related to large-scale
circulation and storm tracks, such as hurricanes and winter storms that can bring heavy
precipitation. Winter precipitation is predicted to shift from snowfall to rainfall due to
warmer winter temperatures.
2.4.1.1 Extreme Rainfall
Starting in the near-term, the IPCC expects "more intense and frequent extreme rainfall
and associated flooding in many regions including coastal and other low-lying cities" (IPCC,
2023). It is projected that the intensity of extreme rainfall will likely increase by
approximately 30% and 50% in the mid- and long-term, respectively.
Rainfall frequency and intensity are used by designers to size storm sewer and drainage
infrastructure. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves can represent the probability of a
certain sized rainfall event occurring in the future of a given data collection site. IDF curves
are typically based on historically measured precipitation data collected at local weather
stations. Due to the lack of long-term observation stations in Grand Lake, the data was
obtained from the Fredericton CDA CS station (ID 8101605). Future projections are based
on a "temperature scaling" approach that each degree of warming is taken to result in an
approximately 7% increase in precipitation intensity (Westra et al., 2014). Figure 2-1 shows
the comparison of the 1 in 100-year IDF curve between the historical and the end of the
century (i.e., 2100). Projections depict an increase in extreme rainfall intensity, meaning a
potential decrease in the return period of extreme rainfall events. For example, the current
1 in 100-year rainfall event is expected to occur more frequently over time, potentially
becoming a 1 in 10-year event in the long-term.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 19
Figure 2-1: Historical and Projected 1 in 100-year IDF curves for Grand Lake, predicted
using the "temperature scaling" approach.
2.4.1.2 Snow
Bush and Lemmen (2019) stated that it is "very likely" that snow cover duration will decline
across Canada due to increases in surface air temperature, and it is likely that the seasonal
snow accumulation will decrease. The main processes driving potential change in snow are
1) increases in precipitation and 2) increased temperatures (more snowmelt; also more
precipitation falling as rain). In Eastern Canada, snow accumulation is mostly influenced by
temperatures rather than precipitation (this is not the case everywhere). Therefore, a net
decrease in snow is expected, with greater inter-annual variability.
Historically, the Grand Lake region experienced approximately 7 days with snowfall greater
than 10 cm and typically occurred from October to April. Projections depict a decreasing
trend in heavy snowfall days. By the end of the century, a historically typical snow season
will likely see approximately four days with snowfall greater than 10 cm (Figure 2-2).
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 20
Figure 2-2: Projected snowfall > 10 cm during a typical snowfall season (October-
April) in Grand Lake compared to both observed and modelled historical values.
Historical snow days were obtained from Environmental and Climate Change Canada
(ECCC) Climate Normals for Gagetown 2 Station (ID 8101800). Future values were
projected using the SSP5-8.5 scenario from the CMIP6 climate models.
2.4.1.3 Freezing Rain
The formation of freezing rain, sleet, and ice pellets depends primarily on the vertical
profile of atmospheric temperature. Freezing rain forms when snowflakes fall through a
warm layer, then a layer of cold air that is too thin for the drops to have time to freeze.
Water freezes on contact with the surface, forming glaze ice. In Atlantic Canada, such
inversion in the vertical temperature profile is associated with a warm front that rapidly
moves across the province with very high precipitation rates while subfreezing
temperatures remain near the surface (Chartrand et al., 2022).
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 21
Figure 2-3: Atmospheric temperatures during the formation of various types of
precipitation: snow, ice pellets, freezing rain and rain. Figure from Ouranos.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 22
Figure 2-4: The nominal ice thickness zones and corresponding range (mm) (CSA S6,
2019).
Grand Lake sits in a historically characterized heavy ice zone, with an average of 31 mm ice
thickness (CSA S6, 2019). This part of New Brunswick typically saw 20-30 hours of freezing
rain per year, with an average of about 2-4 extreme ice storm/ freezing rain exceeding 18
hours (Freezing Rain, 2023). However, decreasing changes in days per year with freezing
precipitation events was observed in the last decade (2005-2014), compared to the
previous three decades (1975-2004) (Groisman et al., 2016).
Future projections in freezing rain indicate potential decreases in the region due to
temperature increases at both upper levels and the surface. Decreases are projected to be
approximately 15% and 25% in the mid- and long-term, respectively (Cannon et al., 2020).
However, extreme ice storms can still be expected due to a poleward shift of storm tracks
(Klima and Morgan, 2015).
2.4.2 Temperature
The IPCC (2023) states that human activities have caused global warming, with global
surface temperature reaching 1.1°C in the past decade relative to the 1850-1900 level.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 23
However, Canada's annual average temperature has increased at roughly twice that of
global average (Bush and Lemmen, 2019). In New Brunswick, increases in the average
temperatures for all seasons have been observed across the province, with a greater
change in winter than summer. An upward shift of average temperatures is expected to
correlate to changes in temperature extremes and freeze thaw cycles that can pose
challenges on infrastructure.
Figure 2-5: Projected mean temperature across NB for the 2080s under the CMIP6
SSP5-8.5 scenario, as compared with modelled 1981-2010 baseline value.
(ClimateData.ca, 2026)
2.4.2.1 Warm Temperatures
Cooling degree days (CDD) represent how much, and for how long, outside air
temperatures exceed a specified base temperature. For this study, a base temperature of
18°C was used. CDD are calculated by subtracting the base temperature from the mean
daily temperature. For example, a day with a mean temperature of 25°C results in 7 cooling
degree days. These values are commonly used to inform the design and sizing of
mechanical systems that regulate indoor cooling.
Cooling degree days in New Brunswick are projected to increase as average temperatures
rise throughout the province. In the Grand Lake region, CDD are expected to approximately
double in the near term to about 310 CDD, compared with the historical baseline of
roughly 150 CDD (obtained from ECCC Climate Normals for Gagetown 2 Station [ID
8101800]). This upward trend is projected to continue throughout the century, reaching as
high as 740 CDD in the long term.
Increasing CDD will translate to greater demand for cooling energy during the summer
months. This may place additional strain on building mechanical systems and present
challenges for structures without adequate cooling capacity. Existing cooling systems may
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 24
not have been originally designed to accommodate such increased loads, potentially
reducing their operating efficiency under future climate conditions.
These projected increases in cooling demand highlight the importance of ensuring that
future HVAC upgrades, retrofits, and new building designs account for rising CDD values.
Integrating climate-informed cooling requirements into building codes, mechanical system
sizing, and long-term asset planning will support more effective adaptation to warmer
summer conditions in the region.
2.4.2.2 Extreme Heat
Extreme heat was rarely experienced in the area, with only about 5 days per year with
maximum temperature exceeding 30°C in the baseline period 1981-2010 (Gagetown 2
Station [ID 8101800]). Although mostly occurring in the summer season, Grand Lake has
occasionally seen hot days in the shoulder months (i.e., May and September).
Extreme heat is projected to become more frequent and intense. This trend is expected to
increase from 5 days per year to approximately 20 days in the near-term, 33 days in the
mid-term, and 62 days in the long-term. In addition, the shoulder seasons will likely see
more extreme heat occurrences.
Figure 2-6: Projected number of days with maximum temperature > 30°C during
historically warmer months (May-September) for the Grand Lake region under the
CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 scenario.
2.4.2.3 Freeze-Thaw Cycles
Freeze-thaw cycles occur when temperatures fluctuate above and below 0°C, a common
feature of temperate climates. Historically, these cycles have occurred most frequently
during the transitional seasons, particularly in early spring, when the frozen ground begins
to thaw and temperatures hover near the freezing point.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 25
Figure 2-7: Projected number of annual freeze-thaw days (days where the maximum
temperature is ≥ 0°C and the minimum temperature is < 0°C) across NB for the 2080s
under the CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 scenario, as compared with modelled 1981-2010 baseline
value. Source: ClimateData.ca, 2026.
With rising temperatures, the number of freeze-thaw days in the shoulder seasons (fall and
spring) is projected to decrease, as temperatures will spend less time crossing the freezing
threshold. However, winter temperatures are expected to warm enough that daily
maximum temperatures may rise above 0°C while nighttime lows remain below freezing.
As a result, more freeze-thaw cycles are anticipated to shift into the winter months.
Overall, the region is projected to experience an upward trend in winter freeze-thaw days,
increasing from the historical value of approximately 30 days to about 50 days in the long
term. Historical values are based on data from the Gagetown 2 Station (ID 8101800), due to
limited long-term observations within the Grand Lake area.
2.4.3 Extreme Weather
Extreme weather events pose great challenges for infrastructure in the province and are
usually caused by low and high pressure systems that travel through the region. Examples
include winter storms and hurricanes that are typically accompanied by high winds and
heavy precipitation. The following table characterizes each type of extreme weather event
that would occur in different seasons.
Table 2.2: Extreme Weather Events by Season.
Season
Weather and Event Description
Winter
Frequent nor'easter-type systems bringing heavy snow, blowing
snow, and strong winds; major storm impacts recently
documented across NB.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 26
Season
Weather and Event Description
Summer
Warm, humid conditions supporting thunderstorms,
short-duration intense rainfall, and local gusty winds.
Fall
Highest likelihood of tropical depressions, tropical storms, and
post-tropical cyclones; systems can produce heavy rainfall and
strong winds, due to warmer ocean temperatures after summer,
resulting in hurricanes and tropical storms/depressions. In the
Atlantic Ocean,
Tropical depressions are storms with 20-33 knot (37-62 km/h)
sustained winds;
Tropical storms are characterized by 34-63 knot (63-117
km/h); and
Hurricanes are any storm event with winds above 64 knots
(>117 km/h).
On average, Eastern Canada experiences 4-5 tropical cyclones
each year.
As global temperatures climb, warmer temperatures provide more energy to fuel storms,
making them more powerful and less predictable. As a result, storm-related hazards such
as hail, damaging winds, and flash floods can be expected to become more frequent and
severe in regions that have historically been subject to such events.
2.4.3.1 Hurricanes
Within the monitored historical period (1981-2025) available from NOAA, the area within a
radius of 60 nautical miles of Grand Lake has been impacted by a total of 12 storms. One
example of the destructive damage hurricanes can bring is Hurricane Arthur, which hit NB
in 2014 (NB Power, 2019). The storm made landfall as a post-tropical storm and caused
power outages to 195,000 homes and businesses, representing approximately 60% of the
NB Power customer base. Power outages were caused by both high winds and fallen trees
on power lines. Intense rainfall (100mm in Fredericton) caused flooding of roads and
washouts. Storm surges were measured across the Acadian coastline.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 27
Figure 2-8: NOAA historical hurricane tracks from 1981-2025 within a radius of 60
nautical miles of the Municipality of Grand Lake.
Intensity of future hurricanes could be enhanced by the climate change induced rising sea
surface temperature, which provides more energy needed for a hurricane to form. Warmer
water not only increases the intensity of hurricanes but also strengthens their ability to
hold moisture, leading to heavier rainfall during these events (Knutson et al., 2020).
Therefore, it is expected that hurricanes and tropical storms will likely increase in intensity
with climate change. In particular, there is a projected increase in the frequency of
Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic, and the latitude of maximum intensity may
move northward (Knutson et al., 2020; ClimateData.ca, 2024b).
2.4.3.2 Thunderstorms and Tornados
Thunderstorms and their associated hazards, including hail, high winds, heavy rain,
tornadoes, and lightning are not unusual in the region. For example, an intense
thunderstorm in 2015 brought heavy lightning, hail, and localized flash flooding to the
Fredericton area, causing power outages and downed trees (CBC News, 2015). Although
severe thunderstorms and tornadoes occur less often here than in the Prairie provinces or
Ontario, they do still happen. In 2013, an EF1 tornado touched down near Jemseg, resulting
in extreme winds up to 175 km/h and 15-km long destruction, power and communication
outages (CBC News, 2013). Historical analyses from 1980-2009 classify much of New
Brunswick as having some exposure to stronger F2-F5 tornado events, even though these
remain rare (Figure 2-9).
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 28
These hazards typically form when the atmosphere has enough moisture, warm air near
the surface, and instability, conditions that allow air to rise rapidly and form powerful
storm clouds. As temperatures increase with climate change, the atmosphere can hold
more moisture and accumulate more energy. This combination can create more favourable
conditions for severe thunderstorms by enhancing the upward movement of warm, moist
air, which is a key ingredient in storm development (ClimateData.ca, 2024a). Also see the
discussion in the Lightning and Wildfires section.
Figure 2-9: Confirmed and probable tornadoes from 1980 to 2009 highlighting prone
regions to Tornadoes across Canada (Sills, 2013)
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 29
2.4.3.3 Winter Storms
Historically, the region has experienced high
year-to-year variability in the frequency and
intensity of winter storms. The 2009 "Snow
bomb" storm dumped about 48 cm snow in
Fredericton. Historical trends show
insignificant increasing changes in the days
with heavy snowfall and the highest 1-day
snowfall during the 1948-2012 period,
indicating more heavy snowfall days and more
intense events.
Although warming winter temperatures may
result in a shift in winter precipitation from
snow to rain, projections depict that winter storm occurrences will experience a slight
decrease, however, intense high-impact snowfall events can be expected to continue to
occur (McCray et al., 2023). This is because of a slight northward shift of storm tracks that
has been observed and is projected to continue through this century (Bush and Lemmen,
2019). However, projections for winter storms have high uncertainty due to high year-to-
year variability.
2.4.3.4 Riverine Flooding
The municipality lies within the New Brunswick Lowlands and is located adjacent to the
Grand Lake (hereafter "the Lake") system, with the Salmon River flowing past Chipman into
Grand Lake. The short Jemseg River connects the Saint John River to the Grand Lake
system, which functions as a natural floodwater storage area (Newton and Burrell, 2016).
However, during high-flow periods, driven by seasonal runoff, snowmelt, and intense
rainfall, water can flow in reverse through the Jemseg River into the Lake, resulting in
elevated water levels and flooding in surrounding areas.
Recent riverine flood mapping completed through the GeoNB Flood Hazard Mapping Study
provides the most up-to-date publicly available projections of extreme water levels for New
Brunswick's river systems. The study outlines the predicted location, frequency, and depth
of both coastal and inland flooding and incorporates future climate change impacts.
For the Grand Lake region, the GeoNB mapping indicates that extreme water levels are
expected to increase progressively throughout the century, driven primarily by heavy
rainfall or a combination of rainfall of snowmelt. As a result, areas currently affected by
flooding may experience more frequent and more severe flooding events across the future
time horizons. These projections highlight the growing vulnerability of low-lying riverine
infrastructure, homes, recreational assets, and natural habitats, emphasizing the
importance of integrating forward-looking flood levels into land-use planning, emergency
management, and community adaptation decisions.
Figure 2-10: "Snow Bomb" in 2009 in
Fredericton. Source: (CBC News, 2009).
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 30
Extreme flood water levels for two return period events in the Lake, as per the GeoNB
Flood Mapping Study, are outlined in Table 2.3. Projections indicate that extreme flood
levels may increase by approximately 0.6 m by 2100 compared to the present-day values
for both the 1 in 20-year and 1 in 100-year events. Detailed flood hazard mapping for the
region is available through the GeoNB Flood Hazard Mapping Database.
Table 2.3: Flood Levels Comparisons Between Present-Day and 2100 in Grand Lake.
Extreme Flood Levels (m CGVD28)
Return Period (Annual Exceedance
Probability)
Present-day
2100
1 in 100-year (1%)
7.12
7.7
1 in 20-year (5%)
6.31
6.92
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 31
Figure 2-11: Flood mapping for the community
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 32
2.4.3.5 Extreme Wind
As one of the weather products of extreme weather conditions, extreme wind events are
not uncommon in the region, which are generally associated with hurricanes and storms.
In the abovementioned future projections, the potential increase in intensity of hurricanes
and winter storm events could result in great wind load on infrastructure. Projections
depict small (about 10%) changes in the 1 in 50-year wind load over time in the region
(Figure 2-12). However, wind projections from both global and regional climate models are
limited by coarse spatial resolution, simplified boundary-layer physics, and large
uncertainties in how models represent regional terrain and small-scale wind processes.
Therefore, high uncertainty and low confidence in modelling should be taken into account
when assessing wind-related projections.
Figure 2-12: Projected changes (in percent) for 50-year return period design wind
pressure for +3°C global warming levels with respect to the 1986-2016 baseline period
(Cannon et al., 2020)
2.4.4 Other Hazards
Other climate-related hazards, including drought, lightning, and wildfires, also pose risks to
the region. While these events have historically been less common than storms or flooding,
projected warming and shifting precipitation patterns may increase their likelihood and
impact.
2.4.4.1 Drought
Changes in the frequency of temperature and precipitation extremes are expected to alter
the likelihood of droughts and wildfires in the region. Warmer air can hold more moisture,
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 33
and under a warming climate the hydrological cycle is projected to intensify. This leads to a
pattern of more precipitation falling during extreme rainfall events (as noted in the
Extreme Rainfall section), followed by longer dry intervals between storms (Bush and
Lemmen, 2019). Rising winter temperatures may also reduce snowpack and cause earlier
snowmelt, resulting in less meltwater available during the dry season for regions that
depend on it for water supply. In addition, increasing summer heat extremes can
accelerate evaporation and plant transpiration, further intensifying drought conditions.
Historically, although periodic droughts have occurred across much of Canada, prolonged
or severe long-term droughts have been relatively uncommon (Bush and Lemmen, 2019).
Droughts are even less frequent in the Atlantic Provinces (Bonsal et al., 2011). New
Brunswick experiences high inter-annual and intra-annual variability in water availability,
with rainfall, snowmelt, and groundwater all contributing to streamflow and fluctuating
considerably throughout the year. Low river flows typically occur in late summer, when
precipitation is minimal and evaporation is high, and again in winter, when precipitation is
largely stored in the form of snow and ice until the spring melt (El-Jabi et al., 2016).
Recent conditions have demonstrated the region's growing vulnerability to seasonal water
shortages. For example, in fall 2025, the Province of New Brunswick reported that both
groundwater and surface water levels were well below normal across much of the province
and issued broad public appeals for water conservation.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 34
Figure 2-13: Spatial distribution for the trend analysis for SPEI at 3 and 12 months
for 10 stations in New Brunswick (1971-2020), excerpted from Poirier et al. (2023).
In the future, higher variability due to climate change could result in more extreme low flow
conditions. Atlantic Canada may be less susceptible to decreases in water availability, but a
potential shift to more drought conditions is projected in both summer and autumn
seasons (Tam et al., 2018). Extreme droughts are likely to have a lower return period,
meaning a higher probability of occurring in a given year (Gu et al., 2023).
2.4.4.2 Lightning and Wildfires
Wildfires may start due to natural factors (i.e.,
lightning) and human influence, with the latter
accounting for a significant portion. For example,
in 2023, out of 209 wildfires that occurred in the
province, only 10 were caused by lightning
strikes. Conditions such as dry fuels, high
temperatures, and extended low precipitation
periods are favourable for wildfires. The most
recent occurrence was the wildfire occurred
between Chipman and Canaan Forks in
September 2025 that burned over 650 hectares.
Lightning is the product of positive and negative
charges in clouds, making contact with the
Figure 2-14: Fires burning out of control
(red) in New Brunswick, as of September
22nd, 2025. Source: (Rewind 95.9, 2026)
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 35
positive charges on the ground to create what we perceive as a lightning strike. Lightning
can be dangerous due to the unpredictability of where and how the strike will connect with
the ground. Lightning strikes have the potential to damage buildings, electrical systems,
wind turbines, and infrastructure that is not equipped with grounding devices. Control
measures, such as lightning rods and grounds, can attract lightning strikes to a localized
point, which will then dissipate the charge.
Grand Lake, similar to other areas on Canada's east coast, does not experience as frequent
and as many lightning strikes as other cities in central Canada (e.g., Ontario). From 1999-
2018, Fredericton experienced an average of 19.7 days with lightning strikes per year.
Presently, there is little scientific consensus on how the frequency and intensity of lightning
storms (and/or extreme thunderstorms that can result in lightning strikes) will be impacted
by climate change. Rising temperatures, however, are considered to be related to increases
in convective available potential energy (CAPE) that can result in enhanced instability of the
atmosphere and therefore initiate and strengthen severe convective storms
(Climatedata.ca, 2024a). This, in turn, may create more favorable conditions for more
frequent and intense lightning strikes.
Figure 2-15: Baseline reference for Lightning (ECCC Lightning activities in Canadian
Cities). In comparison to other major Canadian cities. Lighting for the region is
interpolated from historical value for Fredericton.
Although the link between climate change and lightning isn't straightforward, there is clear
evidence of the impacts of climate change on forest fires, or rather on temperature and
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 36
precipitation. It is projected that the risk of wildfire will increase due to drier fuel,
lengthened fire season, and increased number and extent of wildfires due to warmer
temperatures (Flannigan et al., 2013). Moreover, an increase in the proportion of days in
fire season with the potential for unmanageable fire is expected in the eastern boreal
forest (Wotton et al., 2017).
With the increasing potential for wildfires both within New Brunswick and in neighbouring
regions, such as Quebec and the Prairie Provinces, it is likely that wildfire smoke will travel
into the region more often. This can lead to reduced air quality and associated health
impacts, even when fires occur far from Grand Lake.
Figure 2-16: Projected seasonal severity ratings of forest fire between 2090 and 2099
with a tripling of atmosphere carbon dioxide (Natural Resources Canada, 2009).
The land surrounding Grand Lake is heavily forested with seasonal fire restrictions and
limited fire breaks in place to prevent the spread of a wildfire. Although relatively rare, a
wildfire in the Grand Lake area could have significant impacts, including public safety
concerns, loss of potentially large areas of forest, danger to wildlife, health concerns due to
smoke produced from wildfire, and infrastructure damage.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 37
Projection Scores
Climate projections have been converted into likelihood scoring for the purposes of
quantifying and prioritizing risk to the community. The PIEVC scoring system is designed to
emphasize relative risk among different possible climate-infrastructure interactions.
Different approaches (or scales) were used for different types of climate parameters (Table
2.4). The PIEVC scores assigned that are used in the quantification of risk are summarized
in Table 2.5.
Table 2.4: Scoring Scales (#1-#3) for Likelihood Scores, Based on PIEVC Template.
Score
Scale #1
Scale #2
Scale #3
Return Period
% of Days in the Year
Qualitative
0
Significant Single Event
(100+ years)
N/A
Negligible
1
Likely to occur once in
51 and 100 years
Not expected to occur
annually
Highly unlikely
2
Likely to occur once in
31 and 50 years
0 - 3% of the days
Remotely possible
3
Likely to occur once in
11 and 30 years
4 - 35% of the days
Possible occasional
4
Likely to occur once per
decade
35 - 75% of the days
Somewhat likely
5
Likely to occur once or
more annually
>75% of the days
Likely
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 38
Table 2.5: Summary of PIEVC Scoring used in Risk Assessment.
Climate
Category
Climate Parameter
Description
PIEVC
Scoring
Scale
Likelihood Scores
Baseline
2030s
2050s
2080s
Temperature
Warm Temperatures
Cooling Degree Days > 18 °C
#2 (Percent
Days)
3
5
5
5
Extreme Heat
Days Tmax > 30 °C in the
Summer Season
#2 (Percent
Days)
2
3
3
4
Freeze-Thaw Cycles
Days with Tmax > 0 °C and Tmin <
0 °C
#2 (Percent
Days)
3
4
4
4
Precipitation
Extreme Rainfall
1 in 10-year 24 hour
#1 (Return
Period)
4
4
5
5
1 in 100-year 24 hour
1
2
3
4
Riverine Flooding
1 in 100-year Water Level
#1 (Return
Period)
1
2
3
4
Snow Days
Days with Snowfall > 10cm
#2 (Percent
Days)
3
3
3
2
Ice Accretion
1 in 20-year Ice Thickness
#1 (Return
Period)
3
3
2
2
Wind &
Extreme
Events
Wind Load
1 in 50-year Wind Load
#1 (Return
Period)
2
2
2
3
Winter Storms
Frequency / Intensity
#3 (Qualitative)
3
3
3
3
Hurricanes and Tropical
Storms
(incl. Tornadoes)
Frequency / Intensity
#3 (Qualitative)
1
1
2
2
Other Hazards
Lightning
Average number of days with
lightning strikes within 25km
#3 (Qualitative)
3
3
3
3
Wildfire
Frequency and Intensity of
Wildfire (incl. Air Quality)
#3 (Qualitative)
1
2
3
3
Drought
Frequency and Intensity of
Drought
#3 (Qualitative)
1
2
3
3
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 39
3 Risk and Vulnerability
Assessment
The PIEVC protocol provides the tools and guidelines necessary to quantify risks by
conducting climate change risk assessments. This CCAP follows the guidelines outlined by
the province's Department of Environment and Local Government (A Guide for Climate
Change Adaptation Planning for New Brunswick Communities, 2023).
An infrastructure risk assessment for climate change and extreme weather should answer
three main questions:
Is there a climate-asset interaction? (Exposure),
How likely is it for an EWE to occur? (Likelihood), and
If an EWE has already happened, what would the consequences be? (Severity)
The risk associated with a climate-asset interaction is a function of the probability of an
event taking place and the extent to which said event will affect an asset, community,
health, or the environment. Risk in a PIEVC risk analysis is simply the product of the
likelihood of an event occurring and the severity of the events impact.
Climate -
Asset
interaction
RISK
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 40
The likelihood scores for each climate change and extreme weather parameter are
presented in Table 2-5.
A good rule of thumb is to assume that an asset exposed to an extreme weather event is at
risk. However, that may not always be the case. For instance, an infrastructure asset
located inland may not necessarily be affected by sea level rise. The risk calculation
presented above assumes that there is an exposure. For any asset without an exposure to
the climate change or extreme weather event, or with an exposure that is considered to be
sufficiently low, that interaction is screened out and will not proceed to the risk
assessment.
The first step during a PIEVC risk assessment is to recognize if there is a potential
relationship between the identified assets and the weather parameter against which each
asset is assessed. By creating the risk assessment table with the assets in the columns and
the weather parameters on the rows, climate interactions can be visualized. Climate-asset
interactions were evaluated based on background information provided by the
Municipality, literature review conducted by CBCL, feedback provided by the steering
committee, and professional engineering judgement. The interactions are detailed in the
Risk Matrix (Appendix B).
Impact Assessment
Vulnerability assessments are conducted for each climate-asset interaction identified to
quantify the potential impacts that might occur from each interaction. Assets may exhibit
vulnerability to weather hazards in several ways and are broadly categorized into three
types of vulnerability for the purpose of this assessment:
Infrastructure (physical and operational vulnerabilities)
Health, Safety, Environment
Socio - Economic
LIKELIHOOD
RISK
SEVERITY
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 41
This impact is quantitatively represented through an assigned consequence score ranging
from one to five. The scores include considerations for existing condition/performance of
the asset, operations/operator experience, professional judgement, owner history, and
input from the Steering Committee.
For some impacts, such as social and cultural impacts, a qualitative assessment of risk is
the most practical approach. For some assets, such as the Burpee Bridge for example, the
significance of the impact may be more closely tied to the social and cultural implications,
rather than a loss of function. The bridge was built in 1913 and is of historical and cultural
significance to the local community. The 2018 flood maps released by The Department of
Environment and Local Government indicate that the flood waters stopped just a few
kilometers from the structure. However, future climate projections show that the floods
will surround the bridge (New Brunswick Flood Hazard Maps, n.d.). While assessing the
impact severity on this bridge due to riverine flooding, the age of the bridge, along with
examples of other historic covered bridges in the area subjected to flooding, were also
considered.
Starkey Bridge in Codys, built in 1912, is one of the two covered bridges still standing in
Queens County (the other one being Burpee Bridge). It was temporarily closed to undergo
repairs after suffering structural damages caused by the 2018 floods and was opened to
the public in 2024 (MacRae, 2024). On the other hand, The Bell Bridge in Hoyt, built in 1931,
was damaged so severely from the 2018 floods that it was deemed unsalvageable and had
to be replaced the same year to provide access to the local community (The Weather
Channel, 2018). Reportedly, New Brunswick had about 340 to 350 covered bridges around
1950. The province lost three covered bridges in 2025 alone due to deteriorating conditions
and only 56 remained towards the end of that year (Haggett, 2025). This serves as an
example of how social and community connections are valuable inputs into the risk
assessment.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 42
Table 3.1 Severity Scoring Scale
Score
Impact Description
Infrastructure
Health, Safety, Environment
Socio-Economic
1
Very Low
- Typical wear and tear to
infrastructure.
- No measurable change in
environmental conditions.
- No additional impact on human health
and safety beyond what already exists.
- Little to no financial impact on
municipality or residents.
- No service disruptions.
2
Low
- Minor physical impacts (damage) to
infrastructure. No change to
performance or capacity.
- No impact on services, recreational
areas, etc.
- Some measurable changes in
environmental conditions.
- No additional impact on human health
and safety beyond what already exists.
- Damage/repairs within range of
insurance coverage (e.g., up to $250k).
- No significant impact on municipal
budgets.
- Little to no additional funding required
(e.g., provincial or federal).
3
Moderate
- Moderate physical impacts to
infrastructure assets that may result
in minor loss of function or capacity.
- Some disruption to services.
- Some impact on the environment.
- Possible health and safety risk to
residents or visitors, though
hospitalizations or medical
emergencies are unlikely.
- Damage/repairs exceeding insurance
coverage (e.g., $250k - $500k).
- Outside funding resources may be
required (i.e., insufficient municipal
resources).
- Intervention may be required to restore/
maintain services.
4
High
- Major physical damage resulting in
substantial loss of asset function or
capacity.
- Short term closure of services/
municipal areas (hours up to a day).
- Significant impact on the environment.
- Possible risk of hospitalizations or
medical emergencies (though
infrequent).
- Damage/repairs far exceeding insurance
coverage (e.g., between $500k - $1M).
- Outside funding and/or resources (e.g.,
contractors) are required to conduct
repairs or re-establish services.
5
Extreme
- Extreme damage beyond repair.
- Complete loss of function/ critical
asset.
- Closure of services/ municipal areas
for extended period (e.g., days).
- Catastrophic impact on the
environment.
- Major health and safety risk to
residents and visitors.
- Medical emergencies/ hospitalizations
likely.
- Damage/repairs required >$1M.
- Federal or provincial funding is required
to rebuild assets.
- Long-term disruption of services.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 43
Community Consultation
The severity of potential climate impacts to the community can be better understood by
including the knowledge, experiences, and concerns of residents and visitors to the
Municipality of Grand Lake. A survey was developed using Microsoft Forms by CBCL and
provided to the Municipality to circulate to community members for voluntary online
participation. Questions related to extreme weather events experienced by the community
and the impacts that those events had on their health, property, finance, and/or business
were presented. These questions aim to bring out different perspectives of the severity of
the events and assign priority. Some questions were targeted to assess the preparedness
of the individual during extreme weather events. Finally, participants were asked what
climate-related issues they would like to see addressed in their municipality's CCAP. CBCL
also solicited feedback from Steering Committee members.
To date, the following feedback has been logged:
General
The 2025 season has highlighted concerns related to a changing climate. It is evident
that the climate is certainly in flux.
Flooding
When highlighting the damages done by the flooding in the Grand Lake area in 2018
and 2019, there were many cottages and homes destroyed when the waves knocked
the homes off their foundations or collapsing walls and basements.
In the 2018 floods, people were trapped by flood water and had to use boats to get to
work.
There is an ongoing challenge for residents who can't sell their homes due to past
flooding and don't know how, if its possible, to reduce future flood risk.
There is sensitivity and stress related to flooding across the community. Will it be my
home next year? Will the next flood be worse? The community needs more education
on the extent, likelihood, and frequency of flooding in the future.
Some people have invested in raising their homes, but what is the right elevation? How
will this impact emergency response? What about waves?
Some residents noted concerns about the way water is managed in the Saint John River
(by NB Power) at the Mactaquac dam. They feel priority is given to reducing water levels
upstream of the dam, which leaves homes caught between the dam and the Reversing
Falls (at the Saint John Harbour), vulnerable to flooding.
Extreme Temperatures and Heatwaves
Community members are concerned over the 2025 heat wave and the associated
wildfires.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 44
The current estimates for the Grand Lake region are in the range of 96 persons per year
who go to the hospital for heat-related injury or illness each year.
Heat related stress, illness, and injury have been observed in the community. This is
particularly relevant for the elderly or those with chronic conditions.
Many retired folks don't have AC and don't have the income to support that kind of
upgrade. In the past, extended periods of high temperatures weren't common, so
people don't know how to behave. For example, people may open their windows when
it's 35 degrees out (with humidity) and it warms up their home even more than with the
windows closed. People aren't generally educated on the risks and therefore don't know
what to do when it happens.
The number of consecutive hot days in a row is relatively new for our region. Especially
where the heat doesn't break at night to cool down the house. This has a big impact on
indoor temperature and becomes dangerous for some. Some seniors also don't have
internet, and they don't know who to call or where to go in these circumstances.
For some people, there is a stigmatization related to seeking relief at a cooling center. It
might imply that a person can't afford cooling equipment at home or that they're
incapable of helping themselves, among other thoughts. Having a community area
where people can casually seek relief from the heat without it being labeled as an
emergency would be a good option.
Emergency Response Plans
There is a general lack of knowledge or understanding of extreme weather-related
plans or emergency response protocols. There is a lack of public awareness of the plans
(if they exist) and what to expect in an emergency.
There is generally no public knowledge on where the warming and cooling or charging
stations exist for extreme events. Some people have adapted by purchasing generators
or wood stoves in their homes, but many rely on their social network during an extreme
event, such as a power outage.
Rural communities are generally more resilient as people are accustomed to
maintaining their own properties and relying on neighbors. People can handle routine
extreme weather for the most part, but there are some that are left behind and for
these folks the community knowledge isn't there.
The population of Minto is aging. The demographic is older than many municipalities in
New Brunswick and is the oldest health zone in the province. Relying on social networks
may fail in the future and better communication with these groups is important.
Better education is required on when to go to the hospital, or to seek other
intermediate steps. Right now, its either stay home or call 911 and go to the hospital. In
some circumstances, that may not be necessary and is placing additional strain on our
public health resources. Having an intermediate level of intervention through a senior's
resources centre or community centre, such as at the library, would be helpful. Having
a public health nurse present could also be beneficial.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 45
Drought
Community members raised concerns about water levels in the Salmon River and
associated tributaries which lead into the whole Grand Lake. Local observations show
the lowest summer water levels in my 10 years on the river.
In 2025 there were many locals whose wells went dry and for some they have not yet
recovered as of the winter of 2025-2026. The water level at freeze up was also at
historical lows. This will impact homeowners and private businesses, including tourism.
As emergency responders I think we need to have better access to water, especially in
more isolated areas of our community.
Wildfires
Looking at what happened in Nova Scotia, that could have happened in Grand Lake too.
Forest fires are a top concern for many residents. There was a fire close to Chipman
reminded residents of the potential dangers and unpredictability of fires. There is
generally a lack of knowledge around emergency response plans during a fire. The
community doesn't need all the details but would benefit from a general sense of the
plans and procedures and how it would affect them. Also, if there are pockets of the
community that is at a greater risk, this should be better communicated.
Changing air quality as a result of forest fires, sometimes far away in Quebec
dependant on the wind direction, is impact people with existing conditions, such a
COPD. If its also hot, then toy can't open your windows to seek relief.
Additional community consultant on the implementation plan for recommendations
identified in this report is important. The ability and interest of the community in
actioning these recommendations depends on seeking their input and gaining buy-in.
Risk Matrix
Risk assessments are completed for short-, intermediate-, or long-term timelines
depending on the expected asset useful life of the asset. Assets are assessed under various
climate change scenarios (lower, medium and higher estimates) and related extreme
weather events where appropriate.
As described in section 3.1, the risk matrix uses the concepts of severity and probability
ratings to determine risk. Severity and probability scores are assigned from 1 - 5 based on
site specific analysis and professional judgment of the assessment team and are then
validated during a risk assessment workshop involving the infrastructure owners,
managers, design team, and operators (etc.).
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 46
Table 3.2 Risk Matrix Used in the Study
Severity
5
5
10
15
20
25
4
4
8
12
16
20
3
3
6
9
12
15
2
2
4
6
8
10
1
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
Likelihood
Resultant Risk Classification:
1, 2
Very Low Risk: Controls are not required; no need to include in action
plan.
3, 4
Low Risk: Low priority for control measures.
6, 8, 9
Medium Risk: Some controls may be required, use professional
judgement to determine if action is necessary.
10-16
High Risk: High priority for controls. Develop options for risk reductions.
These interactions are second priority.
20-25
Extreme Risk: Highest priority for controls. Develop options for risk
reduction.
5
Special Case: Requirements for control are considered on a case-by-case
basis.
The risk matrix is presented in Appendix A. The following section summarizes the results.
Prioritization of Risks
Based on the assessment of risk, the following are the highest ranked risks in the
community:
#
Climate Parameter
Affected Asset or Environment
Extreme Risk (score = 20)
1
Riverine Flooding
Emergency Response
High Risk Facilities*
Roads and Bridges
Residential and Commercial Buildings
2
Extreme Heat
High Risk Facilities*
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 47
#
Climate Parameter
Affected Asset or Environment
High Risk (score = 15 and 16)
3
Riverine Flooding
Wastewater collection
Recreation and culture
Land-use Policies
4
Extreme Heat
Emergency Response
Tourism
5
Extreme Rainfall
Emergency Response
High Risk Facilities*
Roads and Bridges
Wastewater Collection
Stormwater Management
Recreation and Culture
Residential and Commercial Buildings
6
Winter Storms
Emergency Response
7
Wildfires
Emergency Response
High Risk Facilities*
Potable Water Supply
Residential and Commercial Buildings
8
Drought
Potable water supply
* Community health centers, senior care facilities, schools, daycares
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 48
4 Adaptation Plan
Climate adaptation plans help communities respond to risks and vulnerabilities. Adaptation
refers to changes in processes, practices and structures to moderate potential damages or
to benefit from opportunities associated with climate change (UNFCCC, 2025). This Chapter
outlines a series of adaptation actions for the top priority risks determined though the risk
assessment process. Each of the high and extreme risks identified during the risk
assessment are addressed in the subsequent sections, with recommendations for
adaptation aimed at reducing the impacts to an acceptable level.
The purpose of each recommended action is to improve community resilience to climate
change and provide direction towards implementing these actions. The adaptation
measures to address each risk were developed based on information received throughout
the risk assessment process from background documents and input from community
organizations, public input, as well as the professional judgment of the risk assessment
team.
Recommended adaptation actions have been grouped into categories, with multiple
recommendations provided in each category to address an overarching community asset
or features. The categories included are as follows:
Riverine Flood Preparedness and Mitigation
Emergency Response Preparedness
Heat-related risks and Preparing for Heatwaves
Extreme Rainfall Resilience
Wildfire Resilience Planning
Drought Management Planning
Recommendations include monitoring and maintenance, planning initiatives,
communication, education, and/or additional studies. Each action item is summarized in a
table at the end of each recommendation section that includes the following information to
support its implementation:
Action Item: Number as listed in the report.
Description: Short description of the action item.
Implementation Lead: Organization responsible for initiating the actionable item.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 49
Potential Partner(s) and Resources: Organizations or community groups who can
potentially be leveraged for support in implementing actionable items.
Timeline: Recommended timeframe for implementation as follows:
Ongoing: Actions that are currently being taken and should be continued or
expanded
Short Term: 1-3 years
Medium Term: 3-7 years
Long Term: 7+ years.
Estimated Level of Effort
Low: Easy to implement/Low Cost
Moderate: Doable, but difficult/Moderate Cost
High: Very Difficult/High Cost
Timelines recommended for each action item are generally based on the timeframe
associated with each risk as determined through the risk assessment. For example, risks
that present themselves in the short-term are typically higher priority and therefore have
shorter timelines for implementation, whereas medium-term or long-term risks have a
lower priority and therefore longer timeframe for implementation. The estimated level of
effort is based on an estimate of the lead organizations readiness to execute the actionable
item.
Priority Based Adaptation Actions
Many priority risks have overlapping adaption actions. For this reason, the following section
combines risks together into adaption priorities. The following sections outline the
recommended actions to address each of the high and extreme risks identified during the
risk assessment. A summary table of all action items is included in Appendix C.
4.1.1 Riverine Flood Preparedness and Mitigation
Action 1.1: Adopt updated land use plans for flood resilience
Riverine flooding is a major source of flooding with significant impacts to built
infrastructure, emergency response, and community wellbeing. The areas adjacent to
Salmon River and Grand Lake are vulnerable to flooding events and the frequency and
intensity of such events in the future are projected to increase significantly towards the end
of the century. The region would greatly benefit from adopting land use policies that are
crafted to reflect the changing climate, thereby eliminating or reducing the risks to public
safety, infrastructure, and disruptions to emergency services.
Updating zoning by-laws for flood risk reduction in new development is an ongoing priority
for Grand Lake. The community is currently considering draft by-law amendments that
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 50
would establish a floodplain overlay to limit certain types of development in flood risk
areas. It is recommended to:
Differentiate the floodway and flood fringe areas as defined in the statements of
provincial interest (New Brunswick Statements of Public Interest User Guide, n.d.,) (see
Figure 4-1). Those include:
FH.1: identify flood and natural hazard areas using the provincial flood hazard
mapping, provincial erosion mapping, and other resources.
FH.2: Promote land use and development in areas other than flood and natural
hazard areas.
Consider what flood proofing measure, if any, are acceptable for development within
the flood fringe overlay. For example: It shall be the policy of council to limit the types of
land use permitted and require appropriate floodproofing measures be detailed as part
of any development application taking place within the flood fringe area overlay.
Consider restricting development in the floodway. For example: It shall be the policy of
council to prohibit development within the floodway area overlay.
Consider that the flood hazard maps developed by the Government of New Brunswick
do not include waves, which have historically been an impactful contributory to flood
hazard in the community. See Action 1.2 for additional details on this.
Figure 4-1 Depiction of Flood Hazard Area (Government of New Brunswick, 2018)
Action 1.2: Updating flood lines to include wave analysis
High winds can significantly worsen flooding by generating waves which have the potential
to exacerbate damage to built infrastructure. Wave action can undermine foundations,
damage roads and buildings, and erode shorelines. Residents emphasized that strong
winds and wave run-up were major contributors to the severe property damage
experienced during the 2018 and 2019 flood events highlighting the need to incorporate
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 51
wave effects into the rural plan floodplain overlay. It should be noted that the Risk
Assessment conducted by CBCL is based on the provincial 100-year flood hazard map.
A preliminary assessment of return-period waves on Grand Lake suggests that wave run-up
could add approximately 1.0 to 1.5 meters to projected flood levels. As climate change is
expected to increase the frequency of intense storms and high-wind events, the
contribution of waves to overall flood hazard may also grow over time. To ensure accurate
risk identification and appropriate adaptation planning, it is recommended that flood risk
mapping for the municipality be updated to include wave effects.
Integrating wave run-up into flood line delineation will provide a more realistic
representation of flood extents, particularly for communities along Grand Lake and assets
such as Princess Park Campgrounds. Updated mapping can also inform land-use planning,
emergency response procedures, operational protocols, and the design of flood-resilient
infrastructure and erosion protection.
Incorporating wave analysis into flood mapping is a cost-effective step that will allow Grand
Lake to better anticipate future flood conditions and make informed decisions about
mitigation, development, and community safety.
Action 1.3: Completion of emergency response and infrastructure
assessment
It is recommended that Grand Lake complete an emergency response assessment to
strengthen preparedness for future extreme weather events, including flooding. This
assessment should evaluate current protocols, resources, and coordination among
emergency services. In addition, a detailed transportation study can analyze how flooding
may affect access in and out of communities, identify areas at risk of isolation, and
highlight road and bridge segments that require upgrades to maintain safe, reliable
emergency access during severe weather conditions.
Several parts of the municipality have been severely affected by spring freshets in the past
decade, with one instance isolating the entire (former) Village of Chipman due to flooded
roads that connect the village to its surrounding regions. A map that indicates sections of
roads that are at risk of being flooded is shown in Figure 2-11. Notably, a section of NB-123
just north of Chipman United Church Redbank Cemetery is in the projected flood zone
such that at least 8 houses lie between the flooded northern and southern parts of the
highway (see Figure 4-2 below) isolating these residents.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 52
Figure 4-2 Map showing a neighbourhood north of Chipman United Church Redbank
Cemetery at risk of being isolated during a projected flooding event (New
Brunswick Flood Hazard Maps, n.d.). Location of the community is marked in
yellow.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 53
Figure 4-3 Map showing homes along route 123 (marked in orange) that could
potentially lose access to both Chipman village and further north of the
community due to flooded bridges (New Brunswick Flood Hazard Maps,
n.d.).
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 54
There was only one access route noted for the community marked in orange as shown on
Figure 4-3 for emergency purposes. These residents may take Stevenson Road and head
east to connect with Red Bank Road (also called Harley Road) and travel south, connect
with Bronson Settlement Road, and stay on it moving northeast until they reach Route 116
at the intersection of Bronson Road and 502 Rd. It is not confirmed whether the entirety of
Bronson Settlement Road is paved, or accessible in the spring, since this will be a critical
route for emergency response teams to access Chipman from outside the municipality.
Note: The smaller community noted previously in Figure 4-2 is marked yellow in Figure 4-
3.
Likewise, the former Village of Chipman east of the river is at risk of being cut off from the
rest of the province (see Figure 4-5) similar to the 2018 and 2019 flood events. Note that
the following bridges that provide access in and out of this community are expected to be
inundated during the 100-year flood:
NB-123 Bridges connecting Chipman to the north
Coal Creek Bridge No. 1 to the south
NB-10 bridge which is the quickest exit out of Chipman. A new bridge is currently being
built which has a design lifespan of 75 years. Therefore, it is presumed that the new
bridge is built above future flood levels (Government of New Brunswick, 2026).
However, access to this bridge via Bridge Street may not be available unless the roads
are raised above the projected high water levels.
There is a small bridge noted along Bronson Settlement Road for vehicles to pass over a
small creek (see Figure 4-4 below). The condition of the bridge is not known.
Figure 4-4 Wooden Bridge above a creek noted along Bronson Settlement Road
(Google Maps, 2024)
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 55
Figure 4-5 Map showing bridges providing access in and out of Chipman that will be
inundated during 100-year flood event (New Brunswick Flood Hazard Maps,
n.d.).
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 56
Homes along route NB-116 between Briggs Corner and Gaspereau Forks also have the
potential to be temporarily cut off from Chipman (See Figure 4-6). Note that the bridge on
route NB-116 past Gaspereau Forks, even if it is not inundated, may still be closed for
safety reasons. The other bridge on route NB-123 to the southeast of Gaspereau Forks
connecting the community to Chipman will be heavily inundated and so it will not be open
to traffic either. Access to Briggs Corner could be available as soon as the floods recede,
allowing emergency responses from Minto possible. However, until such time, access to
these homes may be limited.
Figure 4-6 Chipman community along route 116 at risk of being isolated marked in
white events (New Brunswick Flood Hazard Maps, n.d.).
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 57
All properties along Grand Lake's shores will be inundated. Particularly, those in Princess
Park will be severely affected due to the only access route - Route 690 - being fully
submerged during the 100-year flooding event (see Figure 4-7). Evacuation of this area is
highly recommended as soon as the flood warning is issued. It should be noted that strong
winds during flooding events, similar to the 2018 floods, can give rise to waves which have
the potential to cause further damage to properties and pose considerable risk to
emergency and rescue operations. Communication to the residents about forecasted
floods, evacuation routes, and shelter options can be made through the Voyent Alert!
platform as discussed in Action 2.5.
Figure 4-7 Inundation across Princess Park submerging the area with potential wave
action during high winds (New Brunswick Flood Hazard Maps, n.d.).
To ensure effective emergency response, EMOs including fire, RCMP, and ambulance
services should be fully aware of these vulnerable locations and develop contingency plans
for accessing them when frequently used road routes are cut off. A detailed transportation
evaluation of emergency routes can identify high risk sections of roads and aid in
developing mitigation plans for such sections including raising the affected sections,
identifying alternative routes during emergencies, updated asset management plans, and
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 58
changes to development plans (i.e. restrict certain development in flood prone and isolated
areas). Risks may be best discussed in a workshop setting.
The following is a list of the roads within the flood line:
NB10 - NBDTI
NB116 - NBDTI
NB123 - NBDTI
NB690 - NBDTI
In additional to flooded roads, Bronson Settlement Road, which is maintained by Grand
Lake, is noted to be an important emergency response route. The road is unpaved.
Action 1.4: Adapting vulnerable infrastructure and community assets
When used in conjunction with the updated flood map to include the risk of wave runup,
adaptation actions can follow the PARA (Protect, Accommodate, Retreat, and Avoid)
adaptation framework as outlined by CLIMAtlantic (CLIMAtlantic, 2023). Figure 4-8
describes each option for flood resilience followed by a brief explanation of the framework.
Figure 4-8 Graphical depiction of flood projection option for existing infrastructure in
the flood line.
Protect - Use of engineering solutions can be adopted in instances where none of the
following three measures are feasible to prevent risks due to flooding. Installation of
flood protection structures such as armouring, berms, flood walls, dikes, etc. is an
example of hard engineering solutions. Due to the long stretches of river and shores of
Grand Lake's, such structures are very unlikely to be optimal, efficient, or cost-effective
solutions. Riparian buffers exist along the river but adding sustainable soft engineering
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 59
solutions such as wetland restoration where possible may help further to mitigate the
impact of smaller return period flood-related risks.
Accommodate - Where the risk of flooding is understood and accepted, and where
retreat may not be an option or preferred, the risk to existing infrastructure may be
overcome or reduced by modifying them to accommodate their respective impacts.
Example: elevating the main floor level above the 100-year flood levels.
Retreat -Where possible, this measure entails moving buildings and essential
infrastructure and services to a higher ground and out of the floodplain. This also
include property purchase where appropriate.
Avoid - Preventing new developments within flood-prone areas is the most common
and effective way to eliminate infrastructure risks associated with flooding, and it may
be refined further. Restricting all new development within the floodway and restricting
development in flood fringe to non-essential uses are some examples of this measure.
The preferred option for each asset may be chosen upon completion of a cost-benefit
analysis, which weighs the losses avoided against the costs of adapting each asset. The
following table provides additional information on each of the four adaptation approaches
mentioned above.
Table 4.1 Adaptation approaches to flooding
Approach
Benefit
Drawback
Cost
Protect
Doesn't require
new land purchase
or any modification
to existing
buildings.
Engineering methods are
expensive to construct and
require on-going maintenance.
The water frontage is not as
enjoyable.
Extreme
Accommodate
Doesn't require
new land purchase
Maintains some exposure to
flooding
Moderate
Retreat
Low exposure to
flooding
Required public buy-in and
available space to relocate
buildings
High
Avoid
Lowest exposure to
flooding
Doesn't deal with existing
infrastructure
Low
It is understood that Grand Lake is considering replacement works in the Chipman
Wastewater Treatment Plant, which includes the construction of two new sanitary lagoons,
decommissioning of sand drying beds, and replacement of 6 monitoring wells. In June
2026, the municipality is also planning on the construction of earthen berm cells for the
two above-grade aerated lagoons with berm heights averaging 4.5 m.
The projected 100-year flood zone covers the entirety of the existing operational facility
(see Figure 4-9 below). Grand Lake is encouraged to consider the PARA framework for
potential options for adaptation of the two pumpstations at Bridge Street and the
pumpstation near the Wastewater Treatment Plant, as well as selection of the berm height.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 60
Figure 4-9 Chipman WWTP with flood zone overlay of the 2018 floods (blue) and the
projected 100-year flood (pink) for 2100 (New Brunswick Flood Hazard
Maps, n.d.).
Minto's WWTP is located outside
of the projected flood line such
that no adaptation measures are
recommended. It is noted there is
a small possibility that accessway
to the plant might be inundated
but it is unlikely that it could pose
a risk or stay inundated for
extended periods. It is
recommended to monitor the
performance of the culvert under
the access road and adapt as
necessary. However, adaptation
measures, if necessary, will be
case-specific. Minto's
pumpstation remains unaffected
Figure 4-10 Minto WWTP with flood zone
overlay of the projected 100-year
flood for 2100 (New Brunswick Flood
Hazard Maps, n.d.).
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 61
from the floods due to its location.
Princess Park Campgrounds is a major tourist attraction for the region offering a variety of
recreational activities on the lake such as kayaking, fishing, boating and swimming. The
park also provides space for camping and RVs. Other amenities include playgrounds for
kids and the long stretch of the beach along the lake. The park is within the projected 100-
year flood zone and poses potential risks for the staff, campers, and onsite infrastructure.
Hard engineering solutions to limit inundation on the campground is likely cost prohibitive.
It is recommended to consider operational strategies to reduce risk, such as seasonal
operational restrictions for safety.
Figure 4-11 Princess Park Campground with flood zone overlay of 2018 floods (blue)
and projected 100-year flood for 2100 (pink) (New Brunswick Flood Hazard
Maps, n.d.).
Burpee Bridge has cultural significance and historical value to the community. Although the
2018 floods did not affect the bridge, the projected 100-year flood zone surrounds the
bridge and has the potential to cause structural damage similar to Bell Bridge and other
historic covered bridges in the province that were washed away during flooding events.
Grand Lake can work with the following groups to preserve the bridge:
NBDTI to report any damage or structural deficiencies
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 62
Department of Tourism, Heritage, and Culture to assess plans for the restoration and
preservation of the bridge (and Princess Park) as needed
Covered Bridges Association of New Brunswick, a not-for-profit organization that works
towards protecting and preserving covered bridges by having them declared as heritage
sites.
Figure 4-12 Burpee Bridge (Gaspereau Bridge) with flood plain overlay of the
projected 100-year flood for 2100 (New Brunswick Flood Hazard Maps, n.d.).
Action 1.5: Community education and engagement
Grand Lake may further educate and engage residents on projected flood lines (i.e. how CC
adjusted flood lines are produced) and in-home flood proofing measures. At this meeting it
is encouraged to reiterate emergency planning protocols during extreme flood events as
this was noted to be an area for improvement during consultation.
The workshop may cover the following:
Flood maps: Encouraging use of publicly available resources such as New Brunswick
Flood Hazard maps that outline the areas vulnerable to flooding so that the residents
may be aware of any potential direct impacts from riverine flooding.
Adaptation measures: Providing accessible materials that explain flood-related risks
to the residents.
Post-event protocols: Educating the community on post-flooding cleanup and
maintenance, safety protocols, and providing resources pertaining to flood recovery
such as the one developed by NBEMO (Flood Recovery Everything You Need to Know,
n.d.)
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 63
It is recommended that the municipality host a workshop similar to the one held by Jemseg
Grand Lake Watershed Association on flood resilience strategies in 2020 on a routine basis
(i.e. every 5 years) by partnering up with NGOs as well as relevant provincial and federal
government departments. Additionally, community engagement could further describe the
provincial approach to flood management and dispel any misconceptions. Emergency
response planning is further discussed in section 4.1.2.
Summary of Riverine Flood Preparedness and Mitigation
Recommendations
Table 4.2 Summary of recommended action items to address flooding risks.
Action
#
Description
Implementation
Lead
Partners &
Resources
Timeline
Estimated
Level of
Effort
1.1
Adopt
updated land
use plans for
flood
resilience
Capital Region
Service
Commission
(CRSC)
DELG;
Grand Lake
Economic
Development
Officer
Ongoing
Low
1.2
Updating
flood lines to
include wave
analysis
CRSC - Planning
and
Development
DELG;
Grand Lake EMO
Coordinator
Short-
term
Moderate
1.3
Completion
of emergency
response and
infrastructure
assessment
EMO
Coordinator;
NBDTI
Fire Department;
Horizon Health
Network
Community
Development
Short-
term
Low
1.4
Adapting
vulnerable
infrastructure
Grand Lake
Engineering
EMO Coordinator;
Department of
Tourism, Heritage,
and Culture;
NBDTI; Covered
Bridges Association
of New Brunswick;
FCM Funding
Medium-
term
High
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 64
Action
#
Description
Implementation
Lead
Partners &
Resources
Timeline
Estimated
Level of
Effort
1.5
Community
education
and
engagement
EMO
Coordinator
Jemseg Grand Lake
Watershed
Association
Ongoing
Moderate
4.1.2 Emergency Response Planning
Action 2.1: Development of a Local Emergency Response Plan
Grand Lake does not have a municipal emergency plan. The province developed the 2016
NB EMO Regional Response Plan that provides guidelines on what to do, who should do it,
and other related procedural information for extreme events. Residents noted that a
tailored Emergency Response Plan to the region for specific extreme weather events, such
as floods, ice storms, and wildfires, would be beneficial for the community.
Additionally, Grand Lake may establish consistent, two-way communication with NBDTI to
support information sharing on condition of roads, bridges, and other associated
infrastructure. This can involve defining points of contact, clear procedures for reporting
observed issues (e.g., flooding, washouts, debris, culvert blockages, or structural concerns),
expected response pathways, and methods to share and receive updates from NBDTI
during and after significant flooding events.
It is recommended that Grand Lake:
Co-ordinate and prepare a municipal Emergency Response Plans (ERP), training, and
exercises, with community involvement (a workshop session).
Oversee on-going public education and awareness relevant to emergency
preparedness.
Work with volunteer firefighters and other agents/agencies to develop a specific
emergency response plans, referencing flood lines and evacuation routes presented in
section 4.1.1.
Assess the performance of the ERP during and after each emergency event and update
the plan to increase its effectiveness and to address any shortcomings identified during
the assessment.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 65
Action 2.2: Adapting emergency shelters for thermal comfort and air
quality
Shelters are crucial for vulnerable populations, especially during extreme weather events
such as winter storms or heatwaves, that may coincide with a power outage or air quality
issues from fires in other regions. Emergency shelters can also serve as refuge to people
affected by floods and poor air quality from wildfires, bridging the gap between the
occurrence of an extreme weather event and restoration of normalcy. They may even be
used as disaster coordination centres where relief supplies can be received and arranged
to be transported to people in need.
A community emergency shelter is often dual-purpose facility, such as a community centre
or recreation centre. Chipman Community Heritage Centre, constructed in 1939 and
formally recognized as one of Canada's Historic Places in 2009, is identified to possess
backup power. However, due to its proximity to the projected flood line and its age, the
building Is not an ideal emergency shelter.
Figure 4-13 Map of 2018 floods (blue) and predicted 100-year flood by 2100 (pink) near
Chipman Community Heritage Centre circled in yellow (New Brunswick
Flood Hazard Maps, n.d.).
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 66
If Grand Lake is considering construction of a recreation or multipurpose centre in the
future, the facility may be designed as a dual-purpose community emergency shelter.
Funding may be available to assist with a project of this nature, such as through the
Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM). Funding opportunities are available for both
new construction of a municipal building and its feasibility study. For example:
For the selected building, it is important that backup power systems and a reliable fuel
source (or storage) is available. Access routes to and from the centre should be verified
outside of the flood line and advanced air filter systems can be installed to reduce wildfire
smoke and provide better indoor air quality, which may occur during a heat wave. The
centre should be equipped with reliable cooling and heating systems, and a lightning
protection system. There will continue to be a need for transportation infrastructure
upgrade to Chipman from a proposed centre, working with NBDTI.
It is noted that currently, there are backup generators present in the following locations:
Chipman Community Heritage Centre for medications at Shoppers Drug Mart in the
event of an extended power outage.
Chipman Fire Hall
Minto Municipal office
An additional, portable generator that can power one of Grand Lake's arenas to provide
shelter
Some of the senior resident buildings currently possess or are installing backup power
Note: Unconfirmed if Minto Fire Hall has backup power.
In the event of an extended power loss during a heatwave or a cold snap, these backup
power systems can provide crucial cooling/warming. Grand Lake may consider utilizing
existing facilities such as the former village libraries and arenas to act as temporary
shelters or cooling centres. It is noted that both the libraries meet accessibility
requirements and have air conditioning capacity to provide relief during summer.
During consultation, it was noted that a barrier to the use of "cooling centres" is the
branding of the centre as a shelter. Some residents who may be struggling at home, may
opt not to use the facility if the optics are that the shelter is only open to those who need
critical assistance. Equipping the library as a cool and inviting space for seniors to gather
would be preferred. There is an option to station a public health nurse at the cooling centre
during heatwaves to facilitate.
Moreover, it is advised to maintain adequate amount of N95, P100 or other appropriate
masks at the emergency shelter to be supplied to anyone who may need it.
Action 2.3: Work with care facilities to reinforce emergency procedures
Chipman community health centre is in the heart of the former village. Access to the facility
would be limited to those residents east of the river during an extreme flooding event due
to the temporary loss of access to the three bridges mentioned in Action 1.3.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 67
Figure 4-14 Queen's North Community Health Center in North Minto (Horizon Health
Network, 2026)
With wildfire events expected to rise in Quebec and other neighbouring provinces in the
coming decades, poor air quality is an increasing risk. Senior homes, community health
centres, and other facilities that host vulnerable people may need to install or upgrade
their existing filters to MERV 13 (replacing MERV 8) or HEPA (for critical healthcare
applications) or other appropriate installations to protect indoor air quality. It is
acknowledged that for a retrofit application, replacing a lower rated filter is often not
possible without increasing the size of the fan motors to account for the additional
pressure drop. Additionally, reinforcing emergency procedures during a wildfire event with
facility operators and emergency responders in the emergency response plan is also
recommended.
Action 2.4: Post-event cleanup procedures
Flood events often leave behind significant amounts of debris, including vegetation,
damaged building materials, household waste, and sediments. This debris can obstruct
roads, damage infrastructure, and create health and safety hazards, making cleanup both
labour-intensive and costly. It is recommended that the EMO Coordinator establishes
standard operating procedures (SOPs) for post-event cleanup to help the municipality
respond more efficiently and safely. These SOPs should outline debris-removal protocols
tailored to different events--such as flooding, wildfires, or hurricanes--since each
produces distinct types of waste and contamination risks. For flood events, procedures
should also address the increased likelihood of mould growth, sewage contamination, and
hazardous materials entering homes, businesses, and waterways.
Grand Lake can work with the Government of New Brunswick and provincial emergency
management resources to provide community education on well water contamination
following floods. This may include guidance on testing private wells, recognizing signs of
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 68
bacterial or chemical contamination, and safely "shocking" a well to restore water quality.
Similar educational efforts can help residents understand potential water and air
contamination risks following wildfire events, such as ash infiltration, chemical runoff, or
degraded air quality.
To support proactive planning, the municipality can use flood hazard mapping to identify
potential contamination sources in advance, such as fuel tanks, septic systems, or
industrial sites located within projected flood zones. This information can guide both
emergency planning and long-term mitigation efforts, reducing risks to drinking water
supplies and improving the speed and effectiveness of post-event recovery.
Figure 4-15 Flood cleanup near Grand Lake, 2018 (CBC, 2018)
Action 2.5: Voyent Alert! and communications system
'Voyent Alert!' is the primary means of Grand Lake to inform its residents of an emergency.
It is recommended that the municipality encourage residents to install and use the
application to allow for emergency communications. According to the Voyent Alert!
website, the app has the following features that the municipality can use in times of
extreme weather events such as riverine flooding, extreme rainfall, winter storms, wildfires,
heatwaves, and more. Some features that Grand Lake can utilise in its disaster
management plan and everyday function are:
Geo-locked notifications - communications can be targeted to a specific location,
service line, or work area. These could be useful for updates on road closures due to
flooding or maintenance events.
Multi-channel delivery - notifications can be sent via mobile app, text/SMS, phone
call, or email so that emergency updates are not restricted to internet connectivity.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 69
Two-way communications - status updates and responses from recipients and team
members can be received to gain real-time insights and make quicker, more informed
decisions.
For example, during extremely hot days, the municipality can send out notifications
encouraging residents to check in on their neighbours, particularly the elderly, low-income
residents, and those who live by themselves.
Summary of Emergency Response Planning Recommendations
Table 4.3 Summary of recommended action items for Emergency Response Planning.
Action
#
Description
Implementation
Lead
Partners &
Resources
Timeline
Estimated
Level of
Effort
2.1
Develop a
Grand Lake
Emergency
Response Plan
EMO
Coordinator
Fire
Department;
Horizon Health
Network
Community
Development;
NBEMO
Short-
Term
Moderate
2.2
Adapting
emergency
shelters for
thermal comfort
and air quality
Horizon Health
Network
Community
Development
EMO
Coordinator
Medium-
term
High
2.3
Work with care
facilities to
reinforce
emergency
procedures
Horizon Health
Network
Community
Development
EMO
Coordinator
Short-
term
Low
2.4
Post-event
cleanup
procedures
Grand Lake
Operations
Fire
Department
Short-
term
Moderate
2.5
Voyent Alert!
and
communications
system
EMO
Coordinator
Fire
Department;
Horizon Health
Network
Ongoing
Low
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 70
Action
#
Description
Implementation
Lead
Partners &
Resources
Timeline
Estimated
Level of
Effort
Community
Development;
NBEMO
4.1.3 Preparing for Heatwaves
Action 3.1: Install outdoor cooling facilities where needed
Most of the municipality's land area is made up of trees and other vegetation, therefore the
urban heat island effect is low. Additionally, there is ample access to recreational sites near
water, including beaches and marinas, as well as a local splash pad.
With climate change, the number of days with over 30 °C is expected to rise in the coming
decades, and it is recommended to implement the following adaptation measures:
Providing information to residents
and business owners on heat
pump programs, or other passive
cooling techniques
Educating the community on the
health risks during hot days
Coordination with first responders
during heatwaves
As discussed in 4.1.1, identifying
public places or facilities that are
equipped with cooling facilities, such
as libraries and arenas, can help
alleviate the ill effects of heat-
exposure.
Action 3.2: Blue green algae in Grand Lake
Outbreaks of harmful algal blooms (HABs) can be a risk to children, animals, and persons
with compromised immune systems. HABs can also negatively affect local tourism, and
impact revenue for the local businesses and the municipality. High levels of Phosphorous
and Nitrogen, warm water temperatures, longer periods of sunlight, and calm water
surface are some of the more common factors that lead to HABs. Generally, these
outbreaks tend to occur during the summer- fall period.
Figure 4-16 Chipman Marina (Chipman Marina,
2025)
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 71
Jemseg Grand Lake Watershed Association continues to monitor the lake for HABs using
CyanoTracker in partnership with Hammond River Angling Association, with the latest
reported surface bloom occurring in August 2025. It is recommended that Grand Lake
continue to work with the association to keep the public informed of any new and existing
HAB advisory in the lake via Voyent Alert! Some ways to reduce risk of HABs include:
Reducing use of fertilizers and herbicides to limit nutrient loads to the lake via runoff
Improving stormwater runoff quality
Regular maintenance of septic systems located near the lake to eliminate effluent
leakage
Additionally, the municipality can educate the residents on the health risks from interacting
with HABs in partnership with provincial or non-governmental agencies.
Summary of Heatwave Adaptation Recommendations
Table 4.4 Summary of recommended action items to address extreme heat risks
Action
#
Description
Implementation
Lead
Partners &
Resources
Timeline
Estimated
Level of
Effort
3.1
Establish
cooling facilities
EMO
Coordinator
Community
Health Centers,
Fire
Department
Short-
Term
Moderate
3.2
HAB monitoring
Jemseg Grand
Lake Watershed
Association
Department of
Tourism,
Heritage, and
Culture; DELG;
Voyent Alert!
Ongoing
Moderate
to High
4.1.4 Extreme Rainfall Resilience
Action 4.1 Stormwater management plan
New development reduces natural infiltration and consequently, peak runoff volumes
increase. Climate change will further intensify extreme rainfall, placing additional pressure
on existing drainage systems, increasing the likelihood of localized flooding. It is
recommended that Grand Lake consider developing a stormwater management plan to
better understand system capacity, identify undersized or disconnected infrastructure, and
support long-term asset management.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 72
A stormwater management plan would include identifying, surveying, and mapping key
assets such as ditches, culverts, sewers, and bridges, followed by developing a hydrologic
and hydraulic model to evaluate system performance under current and future conditions.
This modelling would assess how the network responds to various climate and
development scenarios, enabling the municipality to prioritize upgrades. The plan should
also evaluate infrastructure age and condition to develop a strategic replacement schedule.
Incorporating stormwater storage, low-impact development practices, and nature-based
solutions (such as bioswales, constructed wetlands, or enhanced riparian buffers) can help
improve water quality in Grand Lake, increase groundwater recharge, and reduce peak
flows. Since drought conditions are expected to worsen over the decades, systems that
improve infiltration can also help with ground water levels. Funding opportunities from
FCM's GMF program are summarized below:
Feasibility Study: Grand Lake is eligible for at least 90% of the eligible costs, up to a
maximum of $ 70,000. Funding is scheduled to open in 2026. Eligible projects for this
study are those that are eligible for the implementation project (Feasibility Study, 2025).
Implementation Project: Grand Lake is eligible for a grant of 70% of eligible costs (it
can reach 100% under certain conditions) up to a maximum of $1M (Implementation
Projects, n.d.). From the website: "Projects can involve measures such as improving
infrastructure to withstand extreme weather, installing new measures to reduce
impacts on the community, modifying the landscape to reduce wildfire risks, or
bolstering municipal services to better support vulnerable community members. They
are intended to be smaller in nature, with maximum eligible expenses of $1 million and,
upon completion, must have implemented on-the-ground solutions to respond to
climate risk."
Additionally, completing an inflow and infiltration (I&I) study for the sanitary sewer
collection system can help identify sources of stormwater entering the wastewater system.
Reducing or eliminating instances of infiltration can improve sewer capacity, lower flood
risk, and decrease pumping and treatment demands. This study would involve surveying
sewer infrastructure, installing flow meters to capture system response during rainfall
events, and isolating the most likely points of stormwater intrusion. Together, these efforts
would strengthen municipal resilience to extreme rainfall and support cost-effective
planning.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 73
Figure 4-17 An example of a rain garden that slows runoff, recharges groundwater,
and beautifies the area (Nature Trust, 2022)
Action 4.2 Stormwater management by-laws
Stormwater management by-laws ensures that post-development runoff does not far
exceed pre-development levels. As climate change brings more frequent and intense
rainfall events, placing additional pressure on existing drainage systems, it is important to
plan ahead through policies and bylaws to reduce or eliminate stress on drainage systems.
Without appropriate controls and checks in place, new developments can increase
impervious surfaces, reduce natural infiltration, and accelerate runoff, contributing to
localized flooding and downstream impacts.
Adopting clear pre- and post-development stormwater management criteria will help
Grand Lake proactively manage these risks. Such criteria require developers to incorporate
on-site stormwater controls (such as ponds, bioswales, rain gardens, or permeable
surfaces) to capture, slow down, and treat runoff before it enters municipal drainage
systems. These measures not only help maintain pre-development flow rates but also
improve water quality and support groundwater recharge.
Integrating stormwater requirements into subdivision approvals, zoning bylaws, and
development agreements will ensure consistent application across future projects. This will
help prevent downstream flooding, reduce long-term maintenance costs, and support
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 74
climate-resilient growth. As Grand Lake continues to expand, these standards will be
important for managing cumulative impacts and protecting both municipal infrastructure
and natural waterways.
Summary of Extreme Rainfall Preparedness Recommendations
Table 4.5 Summary of recommended action items to address Extreme Rainfall
Action
#
Description
Implementation
Lead
Partners &
Resources
Timeline
Estimated
Level of
Effort
4.1
Stormwater
management
plan and I&I
study
Grand Lake
Engineering
Capital Region
Service
Commission
(CRSC)
Medium-
term
Moderate
4.2
Stormwater
management
by-laws
Grand Lake
Planning and
Development
Capital Region
Service
Commission
(CRSC)
Medium-
term
Low
4.1.5 Wildfire Resilience Plan
Action 5.1 Firesmart community designation
Grand Lake can enhance its preparedness for wildfires and wildfire smoke by adopting
guidance from FireSmart NB and FireSmart Canada. These programs provide practical
tools, educational materials, and community-level strategies designed to reduce wildfire
risk and improve resident awareness. Using these resources, the municipality can create
public awareness campaigns including encouraging property-level actions such as
removing combustible vegetation, maintaining defensible space around structures, and
ensuring safe storage of fuel sources.
Developing a wildfire response plan is also recommended. This plan should outline clear
procedures for detection, communication, evacuation, and resource mobilization during a
wildfire or smoke event. It should identify high-risk neighbourhoods, establish evacuation
triggers and routes, designate emergency shelters, and clarify responsibilities among fire
services, emergency management staff, and public works. Preparing these plans supports
faster, coordinated response during high-risk conditions. Voyent Alert! can be used to
address communication needs and where it cannot, the municipality may work with the
software team to identify and address such needs.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 75
The EMO coordinator, in collaboration with the Fire Department, would be responsible for
program coordination, community outreach, wildfire response plan, and tracking progress
toward wildfire-resilience goals. Collaboration between municipal departments, volunteer
firefighters, and local organizations will be essential for implementing these initiatives
effectively.
Ensuring that the fire department has reliable access to water is critical, particularly during
drought. Low water levels can limit firefighting capacity, so it is recommended to identify
and map viable water sources suitable for drafting. Where gaps exist, the municipality may
consider installing additional dry hydrants, improving access to natural water sources, or
coordinating with adjacent fire services for supplemental support.
The recommended emergency response assessment (Section 4.1.2) will help evaluate
preparedness, response capacity, and communication systems, while the transportation
study will identify road segments or bridges
that may become inaccessible during a wildfire
event. Understanding these vulnerabilities will
enable Grand Lake to plan alternate routes,
prioritize upgrades, and ensure that
emergency crews can reach isolated or at-risk
communities. It is noted that the municipality
is also likely to experience wildfire smoke from
fires burning in neighboring communities and
provinces (depending on wild direction).
Finally, updating municipal planning
documents is an important long-term
adaptation measure. Growth and
development in forested areas can increase
exposure to wildfire hazards, particularly
where homes and infrastructure intersect with
dense vegetation. Integrating
wildfire-resilience considerations into zoning
bylaws and land-use planning can help avoid
high-risk development patterns and single
access streets. This may include setting
minimum setbacks from forests, requiring
fire-resistant landscaping, and ensuring
adequate access routes for emergency
vehicles and evacuations.
Figure 4-18 A water bomber scoops
up a load from Grand Lake
to drop on the province's
massive out-of-control
wildfire southeast of
Chipman in September
2025 (Daigle, 2025)
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 76
Summary of Wildfire Resilience Plan Recommendations
Table 4.6 Summary of recommended action items to address Wildfire risks
Action
#
Description
Implementation
Lead
Partners &
Resources
Timeline
Estimated
Level of
Effort
5.1
Wildfire
Resilience Plan
EMO
Coordinator
Fire
Department; NB
Wildfire
Management
Branch;
FireSmart NB;
FireSmart
Canada;
NBEMO
Short-
term
Medium
4.1.6 Drought Management Plan
Action 6.1 Yield assessment
When groundwater is withdrawn from a well at a rate that exceeds its natural yield, the
aquifer cannot recharge quickly enough to meet ongoing demand. Over-extraction reduces
groundwater levels, often forcing well users to deepen existing wells and/or install
additional wells in new locations to secure adequate supply. This accelerates the decline of
the local water table and exacerbates community-wide water scarcity. Additionally, periods
of prolonged drought combined with rising annual mean temperatures are expected to
increase evapotranspiration rates and decrease aquifer recharge. Under these conditions,
groundwater levels may fall below the operational depth of existing shallow wells, resulting
in reduced water availability for households and businesses.
Reports of wells in the region, including Chipman, running dry have been recorded (Sweet,
2025). As the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase over the
coming decades, it is recommended that Grand Lake undertake a well yield assessment to
determine the sustainable, long-term productivity of local groundwater sources.
Conducting a formal yield assessment will provide quantitative insight into aquifer capacity,
recharge rates, and seasonal variability. Establishing a network of long-term monitoring
wells will enable the municipality to identify emerging trends, detect early signs of aquifer
stress, and forecast potential drought impacts with greater accuracy. This information will
be essential for planning targeted adaptation measures, such as water conservation
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 77
initiatives, drought response protocols, establishing additional water sources, and land-use
planning decisions.
In addition to supporting residential water security, a detailed understanding of
groundwater availability will help develop supportive proactive and informed decisions on
future industrial and commercial development strategies. By integrating groundwater yield
data into municipal planning, Grand Lake can balance development objectives with
responsible water management, ensuring long-term resilience of both the community and
its natural water systems.
Figure 4-19 Map showing drought conditions within the province as of February 28,
2026 (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2026)
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 78
Action 6.2 Drought preparedness at home
The municipality can encourage residents to adopt lower water use practices at home (car
washing, landscaping, etc.) during or leading up to drought seasons. Xeriscaping, which is
designing yards and gardens to require minimal irrigation, reduces reliance on
groundwater and supports long-term water conservation. By promoting drought-tolerant
plants, efficient soil management, and thoughtful yard design, the community can lower
overall water use without compromising aesthetic appeal. Increasing public awareness of
xeriscaping principles can help households make lasting changes that ease pressure on
local aquifers. This should be done in consultation with FireSmart landscaping
recommendations.
In addition to landscape changes, the municipality can educate residents on day-to-day
water-saving habits that contribute to broader community resilience. Relevant resources,
workshops can highlight simple water conservation actions. Residents may also consider
installing rain harvesting barrels to store water for landscaping during drought periods.
To complement these household-level measures, the municipality may recommend water
use restrictions during periods of reduced water availability. Temporary restrictions, such
as limiting outdoor watering or adjusting irrigation schedules, can significantly reduce peak
demand on groundwater systems. The municipality can also promote voluntary
conservation programming that encourages residents and businesses to adopt habits that
lower consumption throughout the year, not just during drought conditions.
A broader drought-preparedness program could also explore additional water-saving
techniques and infrastructure. These may include the use of low-water-use appliances,
installation of rain barrels for capturing roof runoff, creation of rain gardens to promote
infiltration, and
implementation of
low-impact development
(LID) landscaping
approaches. Such measures
not only conserve water but
also support stormwater
management, groundwater
recharge, and local
ecosystem health. Together,
these actions can increase
community resilience and
help ensure long-term
sustainability of water
resources.
Figure 4-20 An example of a sustainable Xeriscaping
design (Assiniboine.com, 2016)
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 79
Summary of Drought Management Plan Recommendations
Table 4.7 Summary of recommended action items for drought management
Action
#
Description
Implementation
Lead
Partners &
Resources
Timeline
Estimated
Level of
Effort
6.1
Yield
assessment
Grand Lake
Engineering
DELG; Capital
Region Service
Commission
(CRSC)
Long-
term
Moderate
6.2
Drought
preparedness at
home
EMO
Coordinator
Jemseg Grand
Lake Watershed
Association
Short-
term
Low
Monitoring and Implementation
The following actions are assigned to each respective department or association:
Action No.
Summary of Action
Departmental
Lead or
Representative
1.1
Adopt updated land use plans for flood resilience
Capital Region
Service Commission
(CRSC)
1.2
Updating flood lines to include wave analysis
CRSC - Planning
and Development
1.3
Completion of emergency response and
infrastructure assessment
EMO Coordinator;
NBDTI
1.4
Adapting vulnerable infrastructure
Grand Lake
Engineering
1.5
Community education and engagement
EMO Coordinator
2.1
Develop a Grand Lake Emergency Response Plan
EMO Coordinator
2.2
Adapting emergency shelters for thermal comfort
and air quality
Horizon Health
Network
Community
Development
2.3
Work with care facilities to reinforce emergency
procedures
Horizon Health
Network
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 80
Action No.
Summary of Action
Departmental
Lead or
Representative
Community
Development
2.4
Post-event cleanup procedures/ best practices
Grand Lake
Operations
2.5
Voyent Alert! and communications system
EMO Coordinator
3.1
Set up a cooling facility
EMO Coordinator
3.2
HAB monitoring program
Jemseg Grand Lake
Watershed
Association
4.1
Stormwater management plan and I&I study
Grand Lake
Engineering
4.2
Stormwater management by-laws
Grand Lake
Planning and
Development
5.1
Wildfire Resilience Plan
EMO Coordinator
6.1
Yield assessment
Grand Lake
Engineering
6.2
Drought preparedness at home
EMO Coordinator
Ongoing monitoring and evaluation are essential to ensure that the adaptation plan
remains effective, relevant, and responsive to evolving climate conditions. As climate
projections and community needs change over time, regular review allows the municipality
to adjust actions based on performance, new information, available funding, and shifting
priorities.
Progress toward CCAP goals can be assessed by:
Tracking completion of action items against the proposed implementation timeline.
Monitoring changes in community vulnerability, infrastructure performance, and key
environmental indicators.
Reviewing whether partners' roles and responsibilities continue to be appropriate and
effective.
Documenting lessons learned, challenges encountered, and opportunities identified
during implementation.
Where possible, measurable indicators should be used to evaluate progress and guide
future updates to the plan, such as:
Number of wells tested,
Residents engaged through education initiatives, or
Infrastructure improvements completed
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 81
5 Conclusions
The Municipality of Grand Lake faces a broad spectrum of climate-related risks, including
flooding, extreme heat, intense rainfall, drought, and wildfire smoke, with most of the
severe risks associated with riverine flooding and wildfire. The assessment completed
through this project illustrate how these hazards interact with municipal infrastructure and
services, natural assets, and community health and safety. While some of these risks have
been experienced as recently as 2018, projections indicate that climate change will
continue to intensify these challenges in the coming decades, if adaptation isn't prioritized.
The seventeen adaptation measures presented in this plan offer a clear and actionable
pathway for reducing vulnerabilities, improving emergency preparedness, and enhancing
long-term resilience. These actions reflect Grand Lake's priorities and address the identified
risks. Successful implementation will require ongoing coordination, strategic planning, and
sustained commitment across all levels of government.
The adaptation strategy must remain flexible and responsive as climate conditions,
development patterns, and community needs evolve. Periodic progress reviews, updates to
risk information, and assessment of the effectiveness of implemented actions will help
ensure that the adaptation plan remains current, effective, and responsive to emerging
conditions.
Although climate change presents long-term and complex challenges, proactive adaptation
can significantly mitigate potential impacts and create opportunities for a safer and more
resilient future. It is recommended that Grand Lake prioritize actions with the greatest
near-term benefits, pursue the stated and any further funding and partnership
opportunities to support implementation. It is also suggested that the municipality
continue to build community awareness and adaptive capacity.
By maintaining momentum and periodically revisiting this plan, Grand Lake can strengthen
its resilience and ensure that residents, infrastructure, and natural systems are better
prepared for the changing climate.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 82
Prepared by:
Reviewed by:
Stephen Sundarraj
Lindsay Bolton
Climate Resilience Specialist
Manager, Water Resources & Climate Change
This document was prepared for the party indicated herein. The material and information in the document reflects CBCL
Limited's opinion and best judgment based on the information available at the time of preparation. Any use of this document
or reliance on its content by third parties is the responsibility of the third party. CBCL Limited accepts no responsibility for any
damages suffered as a result of third-party use of this document.
Grand Lake Climate Change Adaptation Plan 83
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Appendices
APPENDIX A
Flood Risk Maps
Date:
Drawn:
Project No:
Figure No:
Approved:
Scale:
Drawing Title:
Project:
Issue/Revision
Date
No
FEB 2026
SMO
261201.00
1:180,000
LNB
B1
ROUTE 10 HIG
H
WAY
RO
U
TE 116 HI
GHW
AY
ROUTE 10 HIGHWAY
R
O
UT
E
10 HIGHW
A
Y
ROU
T
E
105 HIGH
W
AY
ROUT
E 12
3
H
IG
H
W
AY
PL
E
ASAN
T
D
RI
V
E
R
OU
TE
1
12
HIG
H
WAY
Grand Lake
CHIPMAN
MINTO
WWTP
WWTP
Legend:
At Risk Pumping Station
Treatment Plant
Pumping Station
Treatment Plant
At Risk Roads
At Risk Building
Flood Extent
Watercourse
Waterbody
Rail
Municipality of Grand
Lake Boundary
Flood Risk
1 in 100 year storm
with Climate Change
Feb. 3 2026
1
Issued for Report
Municipality of Grand Lake
CCAP
[
Path: Y:\Halifax\Data\Projects\2026\261201.00 Grand Lake CCAP\44 CAD\08 GIS\PRO\261201 Grand Lake CCAP Mapping.aprx
Vantor, Earthstar Geographics, Service New Brunswick / Service Nouveau-Brunswick
Mar 16 2026
2
Issued for Draft Report
Mar 31 2026
3
Issued for Final Report
Appendices
APPENDIX B
Risk Assessment Matrix
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
Likelihood:
2
3
3
4
3
5
5
5
3
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
1
2
3
4
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
2
2
3
3
3
3
1
2
3
3
1
2
3
3
Interaction
Likelihood
2
3
3
4
3
5
5
5
3
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
1
2
3
4
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
3
3
3
3
1
1
2
2
1
2
3
3
1
2
3
3
1
2
3
3
Consequence
Risk
8
12
12
16
6
10
10
10
6
8
8
8
8
8
10
10
4
8
12
16
3
3
3
2
12
12
8
8
15
15
15
15
5
5
10
10
3
6
9
9
5
10
15
15
3
6
9
9
Interaction
Likelihood
2
3
3
4
3
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
1
2
3
4
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
1
1
2
2
1
2
3
3
1
2
3
3
Consequence
Risk
10
15
15
20
9
12
12
12
12
12
15
15
4
8
12
16
6
6
6
4
9
9
6
6
4
4
4
4
12
12
12
12
4
4
8
8
5
10
15
15
3
6
9
9
Interaction
Likelihood
3
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
1
2
3
4
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
3
3
3
3
1
1
2
2
Consequence
Risk
6
8
8
8
12
12
15
15
4
8
12
16
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
6
6
6
6
3
3
6
6
Interaction
Likelihood
3
4
4
4
1
2
3
4
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
3
3
3
3
1
1
2
2
1
2
3
3
Consequence
Risk
6
8
8
8
4
8
12
16
6
6
6
4
9
9
6
6
9
9
9
9
3
3
6
6
2
4
6
6
Interaction
Likelihood
3
4
4
4
1
2
3
4
3
3
2
2
3
3
3
3
1
1
2
2
1
2
3
3
1
2
3
3
Consequence
Risk
6
8
8
8
3
6
9
12
9
9
6
6
9
9
9
9
2
2
4
4
5
10
15
15
5
10
15
15
Interaction
Likelihood
3
4
4
4
1
2
3
4
1
1
2
2
Consequence
Risk
6
8
8
8
4
8
12
16
3
3
6
6
Emergency
Response and
Management
4
2
3
Possible extended power outages at WWTP and PS
5
10
15
3
4
3
20
Temporary flooding of area surrounding well. Possible contaminant infiltration into
wells causing temporary unsuitable water quality. Testing/intervention may be required
to restore water supply.
Several homes and businesses that rely solely on wells will be hit particularly hard for
extended period of time during high contamination events.
16
1
Wastewater Collection,
Septic Tanks and
Wastewater Treatment
Plants
Repeated freeze-thaw may damage tanks,
distribution pipes, or leaching fields
Elevated risk of contaminating drinking
water wells
The Chipman Treatment plant and pumping stations along Bridge Street and near the
WWTP are within the flood extent. Potential for untreated wastewater to contaminate
groundwater and surface water.
Risk of sewage backing up into homes or onto properties.
High groundwater can damage or overwhelm septic systems. Saturated soils reduce the
system's ability to absorb and filter wastewater for private septic systems.
Increased corrosion of tanks and components.
1
4
4
2
4
8
12
Repeated freeze-thaw can lead to cracking
around the well seal, which can create
pathways for surface contaminants.
Emergency Reponse
and
Community Health
Centres
(Chipman Health Center,
Queens North
Community Health
Center)
Infrastructure flood risk. Potential for isolation of remote residential areas without access to
essential services due to culvert or bridge washout.
Potential for limited mobility within the municipality for relief and rescue efforts.
4
Ice storms may result in increased public safety
incidents and EMO response calls.
The municipality has backup power for an
emergency warming centre in the event of a
widespread power outage lasting extended
periods of time. Note that the municipality does
not have a designated emergency shelter but
Chipman fire station was used as a warming
shelter during the 2017 ice storm.
External resources (e.g., Red Cross, adjacent
municipalities) may be required for support.
Water and Sewer
5
Potential for schools to close during a high
snow event.
Access to hospitals may be challenging to
residents who require assistance with
snow clearing.
Possible school closures due to H&S hazards.
Potential for power outages leading to extended
closure of schools.
Power outages can put residents in senior care
and hospitals at risk if backup power is not
available.
Potential for damages to building infrastructure.
Potential for minor building damages from
ripped sidings or flying debris.
Potential for school closures.
Possible utility damage and extended power
outages. Emergency centres may be required.
Municipality has backup power for an
emergency warming centre in the event of a
widespread power outage. Potential for
delayed services during emergencies.
Potential for school closures.
Possible utility damage and extended power
outages. Emergency centres could be required.
Possible damages to infrastructure. Debris
cleanup.
2
Potential loss of access or impacted mobility due
to downed trees.
Possible erosion and damage to roadways
requiring repairs and debris cleanup.
Increased maintenance to remove wind-blown
debris from surfaces and maintain transportation
routes. Potential increased maintenance to clear
localized flooding, pooling of water from heavy
rainfall.
Wildfire events may result in increased public
safety incidents and EMO response
calls.Hospitals and other facilities without
adequate HVAC filters (MERV 13 or higher)
could be at a higher risk for air quality
impacts.
External resources (e.g., Red Cross, adjacent
municipalities) may be required for support.
No firefighting infrastructure (e.g., hydrants)
currently located in the municipality.
Potential for closure of schools.
Care facilities without adequate HVAC filters
(MERV 13 or higher) could be at a higher risk.
4
5
Potential for delayed services during
emergencies.
Roofs of buildings may need immediate
clearing during high precipitation events.
1
Unkown if EMO buildings are equiped with
lightning protection devices.
3
Potential flooding of major roads impacting mobility throughout the Municipality and
potentially isolating residents and businesses similar to 2018 and 2019 floods. Route 10
(multiple sections of the highway) in Chipman, Route 690 in Princess Park, and
Newcastle Rd connecting Newcastle Centre to Newcastle Creek are at highest risk.
Erosion and damage to roadways from floodwater may require repairs and debris
cleanup.
Residents may need to depend on service (gravel) roads which may be unsafe to use.
1 in 20 year Ice Thickness
Frequency/Intensity
Snowfall
Ice Accretion
Winter Storms
Wind Load
1 in 50-Year Hourly Wind Pressure
5
5
3
3
3
2
4
3
2080s
4
1
Regular wear and tear to road surface
from snow clearing.
Extreme temperatures may result in possible power outages lasting for extended period of time
due to overloading and possible failure of utility systems. Emergency cooling/warming centre(s)
may be required in these scenarios.
The municipality has backup power. This could reduce vulnerability of potential emergency
centres and residents during widespread power outages.
Grand Lake does not have an EMO plan, however there is a provincial plan (NBEMO). Extreme
Heat or Cold is not included in NBEMO Plan as a potential hazard. No criteria is outlined for
establishing cooling or warming centres. It is noted that including such criteria in EMO plans is
becoming more common in municipalities throughout Canada.
Residents facing extreme heat or cold temperatures may result in increased response calls for
EMO. During extreme heat events, the Minto clinic's capacity may be exceeded .
Hurricane events may result in increased public
safety incidents and EMO response calls.
Possible power outages lasting for extended
period of time.
Municipality has backup power in the event of a
widespread power outage.
External resources (e.g., Red Cross, adjacent
municipalities) may be required for support or
evacuation.
5
5
Asset/
Service
Potential for residents to be cut off or isolated because of flooded roads or access
routes, temporarily limiting access to essential services (similar to the 2018 flood events
where the village of Chipman was effectively cut off from the rest of the province due to
closure of all roads leading in and out of the village).
Potential for power outages and loss of communications for effective relief and rescue
operations.
The municipality does not have a designated emergency shelter.
5
BL
1
2030s
2
Riverine Flooding
1 in 100
4
Potential for delayed services during
emergency due to icy road conditions.
Potential impacts to worker health and
safety (slip and fall).
Potential for building (roof) damages but
this can be reduced or eliminated through
proper maintenance.
2
2
3
Winter storms may result in increased public
safety incidents and EMO response calls.
Possible power outages lasting for extended
period of time. Emergency warming centres
may be required.
Municipality has backup power for an
emergency warming centre in the event of a
widespread power outage. Chipman Fire
Station was used as a warming station in 2017.
External resources (e.g., Red Cross, adjacent
municipalities) may be required for support.
Frequency/Intensity
Freeze-Thaw Cycles
4
2
2
20
5
10
15
Vulnerable population are more prone to heat
stress and heat exhaustion without proper
cooling mechanisms in place. Care facilities may
require additional capacity during heatwaves.
Potential for additional electrical loads due to
active cooling efforts (if any).
Extreme Rainfall
Days > 30 °C
Annual Freeze-Thaw Cycles
Days > 18 °C
2050s
Potential for higher slips and falls due to
icy pavements, putting everyone at risk,
particularly the elderly. Proper
maintenance of walking surfaces can
alleviate the risk.
Potential for building (roof) damages but
this can be reduced or eliminated through
proper maintenance.
Potential flooding that could lead to reduced mobility throughout the community for
emergency and other critical services.
4
20
1
3
2
1
2
3
Private Water Supply
(Wells, Tanker
companies)
4
Some bridges may be susceptible to flooding in extreme water level scenarios.
Possible public safety risk if motorists or pedestrians attempt to cross bridge during a
flood event.
Extensive damaged or closure of the bridges can cause residents, emergency services,
municipal services, and businesses to face limited in access/egress routes, possibly
delaying emergency response times or disrupting essential travel and delivery of
essential goods/services. Newcastle Bridge was closed due to structural concerns but
because it is on the flood risk zone, the risk is higher still.
Bridges are owned by DTI, therefore condition assessments and repair plans are not
directly within municipality's control.
5
5
20
Saturated soils reduce the system's ability to
absorb and filter wastewater.
Risk of sewage backing up into homes or onto
properties.
Potential for untreated wastewater to contaminate
groundwater and surface water, possibly
contaminating drinking water wells or downstream
water bodies.
3
Wind loading can stress exposed structures.
Blowing snow or ice can affect visibility and
traffic safety, potentially resulting in increased
public safety incidents.
3
2
Degradation of roads due to repeated
expansion/cracking.
Possible risk to motorists if not property
maintained.
4
Potential flooding of roadways impacting mobility throughout the Municipality, particularly
around water crossings.
Erosion and damage to roadways from floodwater may require repairs and debris cleanup.
1
3
3
Declining groundwater levels may reduce
yield or cause wells to run dry.
Concentration of minerals and
contaminants may increase.
Currently no formal backup potable water
supply in the municipality in case the
wells run dry. Some residents may use
local springs, which may not regularly be
tested for water quality.
Care facilities may need to supplement
water.
Regular wear and tear to road surface from ice
clearing.
Possible hazardous driving conditions during
extreme events resulting in public health and
safety risk.
Possible hazardous driving conditions during
extreme events resulting in public health and
safety risk.
Potential for temporary loss of access to areas
due to downed trees.
1
2
2
4
3
Snow clearing equipment will add load on
decks and superstructure. Some risk of
structural overstress, more so for older or
under-designed bridges. Snow clearing
equipment can also result in additional
wear and tear to bridge.
Ice buildup on surfaces increases weight
(structural load). Ice can damage cables, railings,
or other exposed components. Older bridges
are more vulnerable.
Potential for bridges to be temporarily closed
due to icy conditions.
Ice accretion may result in hazardous driving
conditions, increasing accident risk and public
safety incidents.
2
Freeze-thaw events can result in water
infiltrating cracks, which then freezes and
expands resulting in wear and tear to
structure that may already be in poor
condition.
Accelerated spalling of concrete and
degradation of protective coatings.
Bridges provide key access routes to areas
within the municipality. Significant
disruption to flow of services if closed.
4
3
The capacity and condition of culverts and key
water crossings are unknown. It is assumed that
most culverts, particularly those that are older,
would not have been sized to accommodate
climate change projections.
Significant rainfall events may result in
scouring/erosion around bridge foundations or
abutments, undermining stability.
Possible health and safety risk to motorists and
pedestrians.
Bridge repair or replacement can be costly and
time-consuming. Bridges provide key access routes
to areas within the municipality. Significant
2
3
Bridges and Culverts
High-Risk Faciltiies:
Daycares and Senior
care facilities, Schools,
Camp Rotary & Minlak
(Training Services for
kids, youth, and adults
with disabilities)
2
3
4
Roads
A part of Camp Rotary lies within the flood zone but the camp starts well after Spring.
Chipman Elementary School and Care 'N' Share (Chipman Family Resource Centre) are
just a few meters away from the edge of flood zone. Chipman Forest Ave School,
Chipman Community Care Youth Centre are about 100 m from the flood zone. Flooding
may present evacuation challenges and risks to vulnerabile populations.
Potential for limited access to education and care facilities due to flooding.
Flood damages to buildings and building components may require extensive repairs.
Debris cleanup and other infrastructure-related damages can cause further financial
burden.
15
10
Transportation
6
9
12
1
2
3
4
5
5
10
15
Temperature
Precipitation
Other Hazards
Hurricanes/Tropical Storms
Lightning
Wildfire
Drought
Riverine Flooding
Cooling Degree Days
Extreme Heat
Wind and Storms
Risk = L x C
1 in 10 year 24 hour
Lightning Strikes within 25km
Frequency/Intensity (incl. Air Quality)
Frequency/Intensity
1 in 100 year 24 hour
Days with Snowfall > 10 cm
Asset Group
Surface water infiltration can carry bacteria,
nutrients, and chemicals into wells.
Shallow or poorly sealed wells are especially
vulnerable to contamination.
Increased risk of septic system effluent reaching
groundwater supplies.
3
NBEMO Plan does not currently address
potential hazards related to drought and
loss of water supply for residents.
No official plan for backup water source
for residents if wells were to dry up during
a period of drought. Unknown if hospitals
and other critical buildings have water
availability challenges.
3
3
Possible contamination from wildfire event.
Testing likely required before water is
deemed safe to consume.
Potential extended power outages resulting in
disruption of potable water supply to residences
and businesses.
2
5
5
Potential extended power outages resulting in
disruption of potable water supply to
residences and businesses.
Temporary flooding of area surrounding well.
Possible infiltration of contaminant into well
causing temporary unsuitable water quality.
Testing/intervention may be required to restore
water supply.
Potential extended power outages resulting in
disruption of potable water supply to residences
and businesses.
3
2
Potential significant damage to bridges during
hurricane events due to structural damage from
high winds, flooding, erosion, and debris impact.
Damage could result in long term repairs and
closure of assets. Older bridges are more
vulnerable.
Extensive damaged or closure of the bridges can
cause residents, emergency services, municipal
services, and businesses to face limited
access/egress routes, possibly delays in
emergency response times.
Potential for disruption of essential travel and
delivery of essential goods/services.
Bridges may act as key access or emergency
evacuation points during wildfire events. If
bridges are damaged or out of service, it may
result in longer routes and/or fewer options
for emergency evacuation, potentially
resulting in increased health and safety risk to
the community.
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
Likelihood:
2
3
3
4
3
5
5
5
3
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
1
2
3
4
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
2
2
3
3
3
3
1
2
3
3
1
2
3
3
1 in 20 year Ice Thickness
Frequency/Intensity
Snowfall
Ice Accretion
Winter Storms
Wind Load
1 in 50-Year Hourly Wind Pressure
3
2080s
4
Asset/
Service
BL
1
2030s
2
Riverine Flooding
1 in 100
Frequency/Intensity
Freeze-Thaw Cycles
Extreme Rainfall
Days > 30 °C
Annual Freeze-Thaw Cycles
Days > 18 °C
2050s
Temperature
Precipitation
Other Hazards
Hurricanes/Tropical Storms
Lightning
Wildfire
Drought
Riverine Flooding
Cooling Degree Days
Extreme Heat
Wind and Storms
Risk = L x C
1 in 10 year 24 hour
Lightning Strikes within 25km
Frequency/Intensity (incl. Air Quality)
Frequency/Intensity
1 in 100 year 24 hour
Days with Snowfall > 10 cm
Asset Group
Interaction
Likelihood
4
4
5
5
1
2
3
4
3
3
3
2
Consequence
Risk
12
12
15
15
4
8
12
16
6
6
6
4
Interaction
Likelihood
2
3
3
4
1
2
3
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
2
2
1
2
3
3
Consequence
Risk
4
6
6
8
2
4
6
8
6
6
4
4
4
4
4
6
6
6
6
6
3
3
6
6
3
6
9
9
Interaction
Likelihood
2
3
3
4
3
4
4
4
1
2
3
4
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
2
2
1
2
3
3
Consequence
Risk
4
6
6
8
6
8
8
8
3
6
9
12
9
9
9
6
6
6
4
4
6
6
6
9
9
9
9
9
4
4
8
8
3
6
9
9
Interaction
Likelihood
3
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
1
2
3
4
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
2
2
1
2
3
3
Consequence
Risk
3
4
4
4
8
8
10
10
4
8
12
16
6
6
6
4
6
6
4
4
2
2
2
3
6
6
6
6
3
3
6
6
3
6
9
9
Interaction
Likelihood
2
3
3
4
3
4
4
4
1
2
3
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
2
2
1
2
3
3
1
2
3
3
Consequence
Risk
4
6
6
8
3
4
4
4
1
2
3
4
9
9
6
6
4
4
4
6
9
9
9
9
3
3
6
6
3
6
9
9
3
6
9
9
Interaction
Likelihood
2
3
3
4
3
4
4
4
1
2
3
4
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
2
2
1
2
3
3
Consequence
Risk
4
6
6
8
6
8
8
8
4
8
12
16
9
9
9
6
9
9
6
6
2
2
2
3
9
9
9
9
4
4
8
8
5
10
15
15
Interaction
Likelihood
2
3
3
4
1
2
3
4
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
3
3
3
3
1
1
2
2
1
2
3
3
Consequence
Risk
8
12
12
16
3
6
9
12
6
6
6
4
6
6
4
4
9
9
9
9
3
3
6
6
3
6
9
9
Cancelled or delayed collection due to
impassable roads.
Increased operational costs for rerouting and
catch-up days.
Staffing shortages during extended/severe
storms.
Cancelled or delayed collection due to impassable
roads.
Increased operational costs for rerouting and
catch-up days. Debris clean up can be significant.
Staffing shortages during extended/severe storms.
3
Potential vegetation damage or die-off
contributing to deterioration of natural
assets.
3
4
6
8
2
Possible disruption to waste collection and
similar services during strong wind events.
2
Stormwater
Management
Stormwater
Management including
roadside ditches and
culverts
Flooding events can lead to increased sedimentation and debris blocking these drainage
pathways. Potential for pooling of water to occur due to debris blocking the drains.
Roads, bridges, and culverts can erode, wash out, or become unsafe, leading to increased
maintenance or repair costs.
Stormwater drainage systems may need to be upgraded to meet future demands.
Wind damage to exterior of property including
roofing, siding, doors and windows.
Possible damage from flying debris and
downed trees.
Snow built-up on roof presenting possible
structural implications. Snow drifting on
property requiring cleanup and removal.
Potential widespread property damage from
interaction with wildfire. Note that risk to
properties are highly dependant on location
of home/proximity to forested area, type of
constructions, fire breaks present, etc.
1
3
4
5
Ice buildup on property. Removal required to
avoid structural damage.
Health and safety risk from icy surfaces and
falling ice.
Snow buildup on roof could require
removal to prevent structural damages
and can prevent drainage around
foundation.
Potential loss of rare bur oak trees and other
vegetation.
Potential for tree branches or entire trees being
uprooted and flung away, damaging other trees
and plants in their path.
3
Potential loss of rare bur oak trees and other
vegetation.
3
Deterioration of natural features due to
erosion of soils; tree branches breaking
off.
2
1
2
3
4
2
3
4
Damages to campgrounds, trails, and other local
attractions can result in temporary closure of
facilities and loss of revenue.
3
3
Potential loss of trees and other vegetation due
to heavy ice accumulation.
Potential health and safety risks due to slip
hazards.
Temporary access restrictions to assets.
2
Potential loss of revenue due to wildfire
smoke or evacuations. Loss of natural assets.
3
Recreation and Culture
- Buildings
(Community Centres,
Hockey Arenas, The
Burpee Bridge, Libraries,
Museums)
Potential for higher slips and falls due to
icy pavements, putting everyone,
particularly the elderly or persons with
disabilities, at risk. Proper maintenance of
pavements can alleviate the risk.
Potential for building (roof) damages but
this can be reduced or eliminated through
proper maintenance.
2
Potential loss of tourism revenue due to floods.
Possible repair costs to assets such as Chipman Marina and campgrounds due to
flooding and debris cleanup.
3
Municipal Services
(Waste collection, snow
clearing)
Impacts to staff health and safety (heat stress,
heat exhaustion, fatigue, etc.)
Potential setbacks in waste collection schedule.
Temporary suspension of waste collection services until flood waters are fully drained.
The system may be subject to increased capacity loading in the days following the flood.
Increased operational costs due to rerouting during limited access to regular roads.
3
3
6
9
12
Possible water ingress through basements,
foundations, and lower floors. Damage could
potentially lead to secondary risks such as erosion
around foundations or access points, weakened
foundations or retaining wall features. Costly
repairs may be required.
Potential mould growth and air quality concerns
from water ingress.
Potential business disruption including closure, loss
of inventory or equipment, and associated costs.
5
Chipman Community care is within the 100-year flood zone. Chipman Public Library is
just meters away from flood zone. Flood and erosion risk on Burpee Bridge flood. The
other buildings are relatively further away from the flood zone.
Potential damages to building infrastructure.
Possible loss of service due to power outage.
Restricted access to facilities.
3
Residential and
Commercial
Flooding of basement and damage to commercial property. Damage to building exterior
or displacement of exterior property elements due to overland flow and fast-moving
debris. Debris deposited from adjacent properties requiring clean up.
Several buildings along banks of Salmon River and the shores of Grand Lake are
vulnerable to flooding.
Timber Mill in Chipman which employs a third of the village's population is in the flood
zone and has been affected previously.
Increased discomfort for occupants if sufficient
cooling is not present.
Exposure to prolonged periods of heat may
require occupants to seek medical attention for
heat related illnesses, particularly in more
vulnerable populations (e.g., children, elderly).
Business delays or disruption from closures due
to unsafe conditions, reduced outdoor work for
staff, or equipment malfunction.
Building deterioration including cracking
of foundations, walls, and masonry from
repeated expansion/contraction.
Secondary impacts such as water ingress
through damaged areas.
Degradation of concrete, asphalt and
other surfaces including cracking and
potholes.
Plumbing risks including leaks or bursts
during repeated freezing/thawing if pipes
do not have sufficient depth or insultation.
2
Recreation and Culture
- Outdoor Facilities
(Princess Park Beach,
Campgrounds, Trails,
Parks, Marinas, Outdoor
sports facilities)
Natural Environment
(Shorelines, and
vegetation)
Possible increased maintenance costs in
Princess Park campgrounds during heavy
precipitation event.
4
Cyanobacteria has been reported in Grand
Lake and higher temperatures can provide
favorable conditions for their rapid
reproduction.
As of now, only Gilbert Park has Splash pads.
More cooling stations may be required in the
future to meet demands, adding to increased
initial and operational costs.
Potential for loss of revenue from visitors during
summer hot days.
2
Newcastle Creek Walking Trail is in the flood zone.
Possible flooding throughout Princess Park area similar to 2018 and 2019 floods.
Extreme water levels could impact accessibility of adjacent roads, limiting operations
and access to recreational areas.
1
2
3
2
2
2
1
2
3
4
Community Assets
(services, sports,
recreation, culture)
Tourism
2
2
4
6
8
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
5
10
Buildings
Tourism
15
20
4
4
8
12
1
2
3
4
4
16
4
6
8
Shoreline erosion leading to reduced flood protection to the community.
Soil around some of the trees were eroded in the previous floods leaving exposed roots
forcing potential cut down of trees.
Potential vegetation damage or die-off
contributing to deterioration of natural assets.
Conditions are exacerbated during drought.
Overland flow that is unable to be captured by
stormwater management can damage
campgrounds and trails.
Temporary loss of tourism revenue during repair
and debris cleanup.
Increased maintenance costs.
Wear and tear to gravel trails and other
surfaces. Possible increased maintenance
requirements and costs to keep
infrastructure in adequate and safe
condition.
Possible washout or erosion of trails, particularly around river/stream crossings.
Overland flow that is unable to be captured by stormwater management infrastructure can
contribute to contamination of downstream waterbodies.
Temporary loss of service due to potential overland flooding.
Increased maintenance cost and debris cleanup.
2
1
1
2
2
3
Potential damages to building infrastructure.
Restricted or temporary loss of access to facilities.
Potential for vegetation that are not water-resistant
to die off.
Potential for soil erosion leading to exposed roots
and potential cut down of affected trees.
Increased operational costs to maintain
thermal comfort.
Impacts to worker health and safety (heat
stress, heat exhaustion, fatigue, etc.) for any
staff working outdoors.
Potential loss of service due to closure of
facilities during power outages under extreme
circumstances.
2
Heavy precipitation events may require
snow maintenance of assets.
4
2
3
Loss of access to areas due to flooding events can
lead to delays in waste collection.
Roads, bridges, and culverts can erode, wash out,
or become unsafe, leading to increased
operational costs by means of longer routes or
temporary suspension of waste collection to certain
areas.
Wind damage to exterior of property including
roofing, siding, doors and windows.
Possible damage from flying debris and downed
trees.
Potential loss of service due to power outages.
Potential for significant repairs to be required.
3
Possible minor damages to public
infrastructure requiring repairs.
Potential repair and maintenance costs.
3
4
Freeze-thaw cycles can affect early growth
of plants and induce soil heaving that can
damage roots
Erosion or closure of trails.
Possible increased maintenance cost.
Potential flooding and erosion of trails, roads, and
walkways.
Possible damage to erosion protection
infrastructure.
Possible debris cleanup and maintenance
costs.
1
2
4
Potential damages to trail systems in forested
areas used for recreation.
Increased maintenance costs after wildfires.
Temporary loss of service due to closure of
trails for maintenance.
Note that the facilities are away from previous
instances of wildfire in and around Grand
Lake area but smoke could prevent outdoor
activities.
Snow clearing may result in damaged or
blocked drainage features. Snowmelt
compounded with extreme rainfall events
can potentially exacerbate the conditions
by overloading the system's capacity.
3
Sports or community events may be cancelled
due to poor air quality.
Note that the facilities themselves are away
from previous instances of wildfires in the
municipality.
3
Widespread damage of vegetation and
ecosystems.
Loss of habitat for flora and fauna.
Wind damage to exterior of property including
roofing, siding, doors and windows.
Potential repair and maintenance costs.
Closure of facilities due to extreme weather.
Potential loss of service due to power outages.
2
Potential loss of rare bur oak trees and other
vegetation due to heavy ice accumulation.
Grand Lake is home to one of eight habitats in
the province that contain these trees.
3
2
3
Cancelled or delayed collection due to wildfire
response, closed areas. Debrid clean up.
Increased operational costs for rerouting and
catch-up days.
Impacts to worker health and safety due to
poor air quality.
Potential health and safety risks for trail users
(walking, bikes, ATVs, snowmobiles).
Temporary closure of campgrounds, trails, and
other local attractions that can result in and
loss of revenue.
Building damage such as displacement of
envelope materials (e.g., shingles) or
impact damage from wind blown debris
(e.g., broken windows)
Wind damage to exterior of property including
roofing, siding, doors and windows.
Possible damage from flying debris.
3
2
Roofs of buildings may need immediate
clearing during high precipitation events.
Potential for higher slips and falls due to icy
pavements, putting everyone, particularly the
elderly, at risk. Proper maintenance of
pavements can alleviate the risk.
Potential for building (roof) damages but proper
maintenance can reduce or eliminate the risk.
2
3
2
3
Temporary access issues to some areas due to
icy conditions.
2
1
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
BL
2030s
2050s
2080s
Likelihood:
2
3
3
4
3
5
5
5
3
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
1
2
3
4
3
3
3
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
2
2
3
3
3
3
1
2
3
3
1
2
3
3
1 in 20 year Ice Thickness
Frequency/Intensity
Snowfall
Ice Accretion
Winter Storms
Wind Load
1 in 50-Year Hourly Wind Pressure
3
2080s
4
Asset/
Service
BL
1
2030s
2
Riverine Flooding
1 in 100
Frequency/Intensity
Freeze-Thaw Cycles
Extreme Rainfall
Days > 30 °C
Annual Freeze-Thaw Cycles
Days > 18 °C
2050s
Temperature
Precipitation
Other Hazards
Hurricanes/Tropical Storms
Lightning
Wildfire
Drought
Riverine Flooding
Cooling Degree Days
Extreme Heat
Wind and Storms
Risk = L x C
1 in 10 year 24 hour
Lightning Strikes within 25km
Frequency/Intensity (incl. Air Quality)
Frequency/Intensity
1 in 100 year 24 hour
Days with Snowfall > 10 cm
Asset Group
Interaction
Likelihood
4
4
5
5
1
2
3
4
Consequence
Risk
8
8
10
10
3
6
9
12
Interaction
Likelihood
4
4
5
5
1
2
3
4
Consequence
Risk
8
8
10
10
2
4
6
8
Development
Standards and Policies
2
2
4
Land use and development plans are verified through GeoNB open data catalogue to confirm
that proposed plans do not lie in a flood or natural hazard area. However, new developments
could increase runoff onto adjacent or downstream properties if not properly managed with
drain control.
4
4
Increased development in environmentally sensitive areas could lead to increased runoff,
creating erosion and water quality issues for downstream environments. This is of particular
concern in protected areas such as wetlands.
4
8
12
16
2
3
4
8
12
16
2
3
4
Through analysis demonstrating compliance to the Statement of Public Interest (SPI)
Regulation, Grand Lake's Municipal planning promotes land use and development
- in areas other than flood-prone areas,
- that are not expected to increase impacts on safety and costs associated with flooding,
and
- that incorporate mitigation measures with respect to flooding
Existing structures which are built in the flood plain are at risk of flooding and
associated damages. Properties on wetlands and those adjacent to the river and Grand
Lake are at additional risk of damage from waves caused by strong winds (similar to the
2018 and 2019 floods). Development in natural asset areas (such as wetlands) may
increase downstream flooding over time.
1
2
3
Land Use and
Policies
Municipal Planning
Documents and Zoning
By-laws
Development in wetland areas could reduce efficiency of flood protection. Noted that
provincial wetland buffer is established to restrict development in wetland areas.
Some gravel roads were found on wetland areas and some properties lie within the
buffer zone in Minto (NW end), Newcastle Creek, and Chipman (Pleasant Dr).
Existing structures which are built in the flood plain are at risk of flooding and
associated damages. Properties on wetlands and those adjacent to the river and Grand
Lake are at additional risk of damage from waves caused by strong winds (similar to the
2018 and 2019 floods).
1
Appendices
APPENDIX C
Summary of Recommended Action Items
Action
Item
Description
Implementation
Lead
Partners & Resources
Timeline
Estimated
Level of Effort
Riverine Flood Preparedness and Mitigation
1.1
Adopt updated
land use plans
for flood
resilience
Capital Region
Service
Commission
(CRSC)
DELG;
Grand Lake Economic
Development Officer
Ongoing
Low
1.2
Updating flood
lines to include
wave analysis
CRSC - Planning
and Development
DELG;
Grand Lake EMO
Coordinator
Short-term
Moderate
1.3
Completion of
emergency
response
assessment
EMO Coordinator;
NBDTI
Fire Department;
Horizon Health
Network Community
Development
Short-term
Low
1.4
Adapting
vulnerable
infrastructure
Grand Lake
Engineering
EMO Coordinator;
Department of Tourism,
Heritage, and Culture;
NBDTI; Covered Bridges
Association of New
Brunswick; FCM Funding
Medium-
term
High
1.5
Community
education and
engagement
EMO Coordinator
Jemseg Grand Lake
Watershed Association
Ongoing
Moderate
Emergency Response Planning
2.1
Develop a
Grand Lake
Emergency
Response Plan
EMO Coordinator
Fire Department;
Horizon Health
Network Community
Development;
NBEMO
Short-Term
Moderate
2.2
Adapting
emergency
shelters for
thermal
comfort and air
quality
Horizon Health
Network
Community
Development
EMO Coordinator
Medium-
term
High
Action
Item
Description
Implementation
Lead
Partners & Resources
Timeline
Estimated
Level of Effort
2.3
Work with care
facilities to
reinforce
emergency
procedures
Horizon Health
Network
Community
Development
EMO Coordinator
Short-term
Low
2.4
Post-event
cleanup
procedures
Grand Lake
Operations
Fire Department
Short-term
Moderate
2.5
Voyent Alert!
and
communications
system
EMO Coordinator
Fire Department;
Horizon Health
Network Community
Development;
NBEMO
Ongoing
Low
Heatwave Adaptation
3.1
Establish
cooling
facilities
EMO Coordinator
Community Health
Centers, Fire Department
Short-Term
Moderate
3.2
HAB
monitoring
Jemseg Grand
Lake Watershed
Association
Department of
Tourism, Heritage, and
Culture; DELG; Voyent
Alert!
Ongoing
Moderate to
High
Extreme Rainfall Resilience
4.1
Stormwater
management
plan and I&I
study
Grand Lake -
Engineering
Capital Region Service
Commission (CRSC)
Medium-
term
Moderate
4.2
Stormwater
management
by-laws
Grand Lake
Planning and
Development
Capital Region Service
Commission (CRSC)
Medium-
term
Low
Wildfire Resilience Plan
5.1
Wildfire
Resilience Plan
EMO Coordinator
Fire Department; NB
Wildfire Management
Branch; FireSmart NB;
FireSmart Canada;
NBEMO
Short-term
Medium
Action
Item
Description
Implementation
Lead
Partners & Resources
Timeline
Estimated
Level of Effort
Drought Management Plan
6.1
Yield
assessment
Grand Lake
Engineering
DELG; Capital Region
Service Commission
(CRSC)
Long-term
Moderate
6.2
Drought
preparedness
at home
EMO Coordinator
Jemseg Grand Lake
Watershed Association
Short-term
Low