Nashwaak CCAP Final Report (Community Climate Adaptation Plan)
Nashwaak, New Brunswick
This is the exact embedded text of the captured official document.
Snapshot 63b5f44acbce · verified 2026-06-07 ·
original document ·
archived snapshot ·
unofficial consolidation, the official version is held by the municipal clerk.
NASHWAAK RURAL COMMUNITY
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Commercial Confidentiality Statement
This document contains trade secrets or scientific, technical, commercial, financial and labour or employee relations information which is
considered to be confidential to Dillon Consulting Limited ("Dillon"). Dillon does not consent to the disclosure of this information to any third
party or person not in your employ. Additionally, you should not disclose such confidential information to anyone in your organization except
on a "need-to-know" basis and after such individual has agreed to maintain the confidentiality of the information and with the understanding
that you remain responsible for the maintenance of such confidentiality by people within your organization. If the head or any other party
within any government institution intends to disclose this information, or any part thereof, then Dillon requires that it first be notified of that
intention. Such notice should be addressed to: Dillon Consulting Limited, 235 Yorkland Boulevard, Suite 800, Toronto, Ontario M2J 4Y8,
Attention: Legal Department.
Table of Contents
i
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Table of Contents
Acronyms, Abbreviations, Definitions
Executive Summary
1.0
Introduction
1
1.1
Background Information and Project Purpose................................................................... 1
2.0
Approach and Methodology
2
2.1
Background Review Process ............................................................................................. 3
2.1.1
Review of Climate Hazards ............................................................................................... 4
2.1.2
Community Engagement .................................................................................................. 7
2.2
Vulnerability Assessment .................................................................................................. 9
2.2.1
Infrastructure Assessment Methodology .......................................................................... 9
2.2.2
Infrastructure Assessment .............................................................................................. 12
2.2.3
Social Vulnerability Assessment ...................................................................................... 17
3.0
Adaptation and Implementation Planning
19
3.1
Adaptation Options ........................................................................................................ 24
3.1.1
Physical Adaptations ...................................................................................................... 24
3.1.2
Policy Adaptations .......................................................................................................... 25
4.0
Conclusion
30
4.1
Limitations ..................................................................................................................... 30
Figures
Figure 1: Results of Question 1 of 9 from the Community Survey ...................................................... 8
Figure 2: Risk matrix ........................................................................................................................ 11
Figure 3: Risk Scoring Criteria .......................................................................................................... 11
Figure 4: Infrastructure Assessment Results .................................................................................... 13
Figure 5: 1-in-20 Year Flood Map - Former Village of Stanley ........................................................... 16
Table of Contents
ii
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Tables
Table 1: Project Task Summary .......................................................................................................... 2
Table 2: Infrastructure Components .................................................................................................. 3
Table 3: Climate Data Projections ...................................................................................................... 5
Table 4: Targeted Interviewees ......................................................................................................... 7
Table 5: Likelihood of Occurrence ................................................................................................... 10
Table 6: Interactions severity ratings ............................................................................................... 11
Table 8. Wildfire Severity Scores ..................................................................................................... 14
Table 8: Flooding Severity Scores .................................................................................................... 15
Table 9: Implementation Criteria ..................................................................................................... 20
Table 10: High-Level Implementation Plan....................................................................................... 21
Appendices
A
Engagement Survey Results
B
Vulnerability Assessment Results
C
Flood Maps
References
Acronyms, Abbreviations, Definitions
iii
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Acronyms, Abbreviations, Definitions
2050s
30-year record covering the years 2041 to 2070, collectively referred to as "2050's".
2080s
30-year record covering the years 2071 to 2100, collectively referred to as "2080's".
CCAP
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
CDD
Cooling Degree Days
ECCC
Environment Climate Change Canada
GCM
Global Climate Model
GHG
Greenhouse Gasses
H&S
Health and Safety
HDD
Heating Degree Days
HVAC
Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning
mm
Millimetre
NRC
Nashwaak Rural Community
O&M
Operations and Maintenance
PIEVC
Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (CCRA Framework)
RCP
Representative Concentration Pathway
SPEI
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
Executive Summary
iv
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Executive Summary
In 2024, Dillon Consulting Limited (Dillon) worked collaboratively with Nashwaak Rural Community
(NRC) to assist with the development of a Climate Change Adaptation Plan (CCAP). The main objectives
of this CCAP are to identify the climate change vulnerabilities of specific community infrastructure assets
and components, and to develop strategic adaptation measures and an implementation plan that will
increase the community's resilience to climate change impacts.
The development of this CCAP included six main steps:
-
Background Review - literature review and social vulnerability review to determine the initial list of
vulnerabilities;
-
Community Engagement - one-on-one interviews with key NRC staff to identify vulnerabilities and
potential adaptation measures through a more experiential lens. An online community survey was
also published for the general public to gather more input;
-
Vulnerability Identification - risk scores of identified vulnerabilities are calculated to present a
hierarchy of risks;
-
Adaptation Planning - recommended adaptation measures are developed for medium to extreme
risk vulnerabilities identified;
-
Implementation Planning - identified adaptation options are ranked from highest to lowest relative
priority based on their risk level, timeline for implementation, estimated cost, and responsible
parties are identified; and
-
Reporting - developed a draft and final CCAP report.
In summary, the climate change vulnerability assessment completed for NRC identified four (4)
extreme, twelve (12) high, seventeen (17) medium, twenty (20) low risk interactions from the
vulnerability assessment. Medium, high, and extreme risks were prioritized and brought forward to the
adaptation planning process. The high-level flood risk assessment found various segments of the
community's road infrastructure and buildings to be vulnerable to the 1-in-20 year flood event in the
year 2100, as well as the 1-in-100 year flood event for present day.
Adaptation options were assigned to medium, high, and extreme risk interactions identified for NRC's
assets to increase the community's resilience and the capacity to respond to future climate events.
Upon completion of the adaptation planning process, an implementation plan was developed to support
the prioritization of adaptation options, taking into account the risk scores calculated as well as input
from community stakeholders.
As the global climate grows unstable, the frequency and severity of inclement weather such as very hot
days, heavy precipitation, or even drought-like conditions can also be anticipated to increase. More
Executive Summary
v
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
extreme multi-variable dependent events such as wildfire remain difficult to accurately predict but the
significant impacts they can bring to a community necessitates a robust and comprehensive emergency
management plan.
In total, thirty-four (34) unique adaptation options were identified to support climate resilience within
the community. This Climate Change Adaptation Plan identifies a path forward for the community to
proactively prepare for the anticipated climate change impacts for the region. As time progresses, new
climate information and modelling technologies will emerge and so this plan will require ongoing
monitoring and review of the adaptation measures and implementation plan outlined in Section 3.0 of
this report.
1.0 Introduction 1
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
1.0
Introduction
Nashwaak Rural Community (NRC) is situated in central New Brunswick, within York County. With an
estimated population of 4,755 in 2021 according to Statistics Canada. NRC lies along the Nashwaak
River, a tributary of the Saint John River. NRC was incorporated as a result of the 2023 New Brunswick
local governance reforms and includes the former Village of Stanley and portions of the local service
districts of Stanley, Saint Marys, Estey's Bridge, and Douglas.
Climate change has presented economic, environmental, and public safety risks to communities
throughout New Brunswick. Over the past century, New Brunswick has seen an increase in average
temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns with more frequent heavy rainfall events and variations
in snowfall patterns. There has also been a rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather
events, such as storms and flooding, which has impacted more rural communities in New Brunswick. The
purpose of this project is to investigate climate change related risks on the community and develop
potential adaptation strategies to mitigate the identified and prioritized risks.
1.1
Background Information and Project Purpose
NRC obtained funding from the Environmental Trust Fund (ETF) of New Brunswick to develop a Climate
Change Adaptation Plan (CCAP). The ETF aids with action-oriented projects with tangible and
measurable results, aimed at protecting, preserving and enhancing the natural environment. Dillon
Consulting Limited (Dillon) was engaged by NRC to identify potential impacts of climate change on the
community's various systems. The project consists of a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment, key
stakeholder engagement, and development of a final Climate Change Adaptation Plan including an
implementation plan.
2.0 Approach and Methodology 2
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
2.0
Approach and Methodology
This plan identifies the infrastructure vulnerabilities and focuses on recommending potential adaptation
options for each vulnerability identified. Additionally, a high-level implementation plan was also
developed to support NRC's decision making in prioritizing the actions identified within this CCAP. The
components of the Plan included completion of the following tasks as shown in Table 1 below.
The development of the adaptation options and implementation plan presented in this report was built
upon the various risks identified in the vulnerability assessment and from the knowledge and input of
NRC representatives through targeted interviews by Dillon staff.
Table 1: Project Task Summary
Phase
Task
Subtasks
Vulnerability
Assessment
Background
Review
Reviewed infrastructure data and compiled a list of critical infrastructure,
core services, and external service providers;
Reviewed past reports or plans completed for the Community;
Compiled existing climate change data and projections for the Community;
Reviewed flood maps available through the Province of NB;
Targeted
Interviews
Conducted one-on-one, key person interviews with NRC staff and residents
who hold detailed knowledge of the community's infrastructure, population,
and history as it pertains to climate change impacts;
Compiled an initial list of climate change vulnerabilities within the
community;
Vulnerability
Assessment
Completed a vulnerability assessment matrix and compiled vulnerability
assessment results into a list of high, medium, or low risk climate change
vulnerabilities;
Completed a qualitative spatial assessment to identify potential flood-
vulnerable assets
Adaptation
Planning
Adaptation
Planning &
Implementation
Plan Workshop
Reviewed the prioritized list of infrastructure and social vulnerabilities;
Developed adaptation measures and other recommendations to address the
medium, high, and extreme risk interactions identified from the vulnerability
assessment;
Created a distilled list of adaptation measures and additional considerations
to be considered for final reporting;
Developed a high-level implementation plan that provides information on the
adaptation options' estimated level of costs, timeline for implementation,
and responsible parties.
Final Reporting
Prepared and submitted a draft and final CCAP document to the Community
for approval;
2.0 Approach and Methodology 3
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
2.1
Background Review Process
The background review component of this project involved the review of infrastructure and planning
data provided by the community. In addition to physical built infrastructure, the review also examined
population data to understand the potential vulnerable populations that are present within NRC. The
background review process included a review of the climate hazards that could impact NRC
infrastructure and vulnerable populations. As a result of this review, a vulnerable population and
infrastructure component listing was established, and a prioritized list of vulnerabilities were compiled
(Section 2.2).
The component listing compiled for this project was informed by several sources, namely:
1. Nashwaak Rural Community 2023 Asset Inventory, which contains general information related to
building name, location, construction year, and improvement costs;
2. The Village of Stanley 2022 Emergency Action Plan, which defines the immediate response to
specific identified high-risk emergencies, municipal actions, and the contact numbers of those that
can provide immediate help;
3. Stakeholder Interviews, where community representatives provided information on their climate-
change related experiences and concerns, as well as the infrastructure and/or population groups
that they interface with on a regular basis.
4. Census Data, which provided information relating to population groups present within the
community, disaggregated by either age, socio-economic, or ethnic indicators.
5. Rural Plans, which provided information relating to regional planning policies and regulations for
various communities that are part of Nashwaak Rural Community
The infrastructure components considered as part of this assessment are shown in Table 2, below.
Table 2: Infrastructure Components
Asset Category
Component
Buildings
Foundation/Structure
Roof
Exterior Finishes
Windows & Doors
Mechanical Systems (HVAC)
Electrical Systems
Power Lines
Transportation
Hardscaping (Asphalt & Concrete Surface)
Walking Trails (Gravel or Natural)
Signage and Streetlights
Fleet
Fire Department Vehicles
2.0 Approach and Methodology 4
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Asset Category
Component
Wastewater and Stormwater
Wastewater Lagoon
Lift Station
Culverts & Ditches
Groundwater Wells (Private)
Storm Sewer
Natural Infrastructure
Green Infrastructure
River and Waterways
Riverbanks
People
Seniors
People with Disabilities
People in Core Housing Need
Low-Income Households
2.1.1
Review of Climate Hazards
Using publicly accessible climate toolkits and studies, historical and projected climate data were
collected to inform our understanding of anticipated changes in the climate. Historical conditions were
compiled for the period 1981 to 2010. Climate change projections were then calculated for the time
periods "2050s" (2041 - 2070) and "2080s" (2071 - 2100) using an ensemble average of various Global
Climate Models (GCMs) with an emission scenario using the Representative Concentration Pathway
(RCP) 8.5, demonstrating a "business as usual" scenario, with continued fossil fuel consumption going
forward. The use of a large ensemble of models provides the best estimate of climate change since the
average of the ensemble is the standard best practice methodology for climate change projections. The
following sources were utilized:
-
Climate Data Canada, an online climate data portal produced collaboratively by Canada's leading
climate organizations and supported, in part, by the Government of Canada;
-
The Climate Atlas of Canada, an online database with downscaled climate data that integrates
interactive web design with climatology, cartography, and storytelling to better support education
and applied decision-making;
-
"Possible Impacts of Climate Change of Wind Gusts under Downscaled Future Climate Conditions:
Updated for Canada" by Cheng et al., a research article exploring future projections of wind gust
events across various Canadian regions.
However, snow accumulation potential was assessed qualitatively based on available precipitation and
cold weather data, and anecdotal information gathered from key stakeholders.
Dillon's review of regional climate hazards has identified several climate change impacts of concern
(Table 3), namely extreme high temperatures, heavy rainfall events, drought conditions. These
parameters are expected to increase in frequency in the future.
2.0 Approach and Methodology 5
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Table 3: Climate Data Projections
Climate
Hazard
Definition/Threshold
Unit
Historical
2080s
Projected
Trend
Heat/
Drought
Very Hot Days
Average number of days per year with a maximum temperature >= 30°C
Days/year
8.2
62.0
⬆
Cooling Degree Days1
Average number of cooling demand per year against the baseline of 18°C
CDD
139.4
689.0
⬆
No. of Heat Waves2
Average number of heat waves per year
Heat
waves/year
0.5
5.3
⬆
Average Length of Heat Waves
Average length of heat waves in days
Days
1.7
7.3
⬆
12 Month SPEI3
A drought index based on the difference between precipitation (P) and
potential evapotranspiration (PET). Negative values indicate water deficit. The
lower the value, the greater the risk of a drought.
-
0.07
0.02
⬇
Cold
Winter Days
Average number of days per year with minimum temperatures < -15°C
Days/year
40.8
2.8
⬇
Heating Degree Days4
Average number of heating demand per year against the baseline of 18°C
HDD
4646.5
2985.1
⬇
Ice Days
Average number of days per year with a maximum temperature <= 0°C
Days/year
72.1
21.5
⬇
Heavy
Precipitation
Total Annual Precipitation
Average total annual precipitation in the form of rainfall and snow
mm/year
1221.3
1434.0
⬆
Wet Days >= 20 mm
Average number of days per year with precipitation >= 20 mm (rain and snow
combined)
Days/year
12.6
18.6
⬆
Maximum 5-Day Precipitation
Average amount of precipitation that falls over a consecutive 5-day period
mm
81.3
101.1
⬆
Freeze-Thaw
Freeze-Thaw Cycles5
Average number of freeze-thaw cycles per year
Cycles/year
81.8
68.1
⬇
High Wind
Gusts
High Winds >= 50 km/h
Average number of days per year with wind gusts >= 50 km/h
Days/year
23.5
25.9
⬆
High Winds >= 70 km/h
Average number of days per year with wind gusts >= 70 km/h
Days/year
5.5
6.6
⬆
2.0 Approach and Methodology 6
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Notes:
1Cooling Degree Days is a metric used to quantify cooling demand. CDD is calculated by subtracting 18°C from the average daily temperature for each day of a specified time
period. Increases in CDD indicate increasing cooling needs due to an increase in average daily temperatures.
2Heat waves occur when at least 3 days in a row reach or exceed 30°C.
3The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) classifications of drought; Extremely wet (1.83 ≤ SPEI); Severely wet (1.82 < SPEI < 1.43); Moderately wet
(1.42 < SPE < 1.43); Near normal (-1.0 ≤ SPEI ≤ 1.0); Moderate drought (-1.42 < SPEI < -1.0); Severe drought (-1.82 < SPEI < -1.43); Extreme drought (SPEI ≤ -1.83)
4Heating Degree Days is a metric used to quantify heating demand. HDD is calculated by subtracting the average daily temperature from 18°C for each day of a specified time
period. Decreases in HDD indicate decreasing heating needs due to an increase in average daily temperatures.
5A freeze-thaw cycle occurs when the daily maximum temperature exceeds 0°C and the daily minimum temperature is less than or equal to -1°C.
2.0 Approach and Methodology 7
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
2.1.1.1
Data Limitations
The data gathered depicts the average of statistically downscaled data from twenty-four (24) climate
models. It is standard practice in climatological studies to use data from a range of models (as opposed
to a single model), to represent the uncertainty associated with the modeling process. It is important to
acknowledge that there will invariably be an element of uncertainty associated with the projections
provided by climate models regarding the anticipated changes in our climate.
Furthermore, it is challenging to predict with absolute certainty the specific outcomes of climate change.
However, the level of confidence in potential impacts varies on a case-by-case basis, depending on the
type of climate change associated with the impact and the nature of the relationship between the
change and its resulting effects.
For example, there may be a higher degree of confidence when suggesting that an increase in the
frequency of hot days will likely lead to an increased risk of heat-related illnesses strokes in human
environments (unless proactive adaptation measures are implemented), but a lower degree of
confidence that the increased number of hot days will increase the severity of thunderstorms (which
require specific kinds of meteorological conditions). Therefore, while there exists a relatively
straightforward cause-and-effect relationship between elevated outdoor temperatures and heat-related
illnesses, the development of thunderstorms involves a more complex interplay of meteorological
variables.
2.1.2
Community Engagement
Engagement was conducted on two fronts: a targeted interview with key stakeholders, and an online
community-wide survey.
Dillon held four (4) targeted interviews between November 21 and November 25 of 2024 with
community leaders and staff to gather input in helping identify climate change vulnerabilities and
understand their first-hand observations of the impacts of climate change in their local communities.
Interviewees are listed in Table 4 below.
Table 4: Targeted Interviewees
Name
Role
Stephen Bliss
Fire Chief
Gary Spencer
Owner/Engineer of Spencer Environmental
Pam Stanley
Executive Director of Just Friends Food Bank
Amy Floyd
Former Ward Councillor
2.0 Approach and Methodology 8
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Interviews were tailored to each participant's respective areas of expertise so that insights gathered
were both relevant and highly valuable. The interviews included questions directed towards the
identification of past climate change impacts to specific infrastructure assets or vulnerable population
groups that Dillon identified during the background review process. Participants were also asked about
any adaptation options that they would like to see considered in the Climate Change Adaptation Plan
where appropriate. The approach taken towards the development of this CCAP was driven by historical
and projected climate data and an engagement process that facilitated stakeholder collaboration and
leadership participation.
The engagement survey was published online and kept online from November 2024 to January 2025. It
featured a series of questions asking participants to identify or rank climate change impacts that they
were concerned of the most, as well as adaptation options that they would recommend. An example of
such a question is shown in Figure 1 below. The complete survey results are available in Appendix A.
The engagement concluded with flooding, wildfire, and heavy precipitation as the top three climate
change impacts of concern in both the interviews and survey.
Figure 1: Results of Question 1 of 9 from the Community Survey
2.0 Approach and Methodology 9
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
The climate-related concerns reported throughout engagement were then carried over into the
vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning process, where adaptation and preventative measures
were developed for each medium, high, and extreme-risk climate hazard and infrastructure interaction.
The risks identified are discussed in greater detail in the sections that follow.
2.2
Vulnerability Assessment
Three vulnerability assessments were conducted: an infrastructure vulnerability assessment, a spatial
assessment, and a social vulnerability assessment, whereby:
-
The infrastructure assessment focused on the interactions between community infrastructure and
climate hazards of concern, independent of their location within the community;
-
The spatial assessment focused on a high-level analysis of available flood hazard maps of the
community provided by New Brunswick Flood Hazard Maps; and
-
The social vulnerability assessment focused on the interactions between specific vulnerable
population groups and climate hazards of concern, independent of their location within the
community.
2.2.1
Infrastructure Assessment Methodology
The methodology used for this assessment is in alignment with risk management guidelines and the risk
management process described within. The process required executing four key steps to complete the
vulnerability assessment of community infrastructure. These are:
1. Identify potential risk interactions between infrastructure components and climate hazards;
2. Determine likelihood of occurrence for climate hazards using current climate data and future
climate projections;
3. Determine the severity of an impact of each feasible interaction between a climate hazard and an
infrastructure component; and
4. Calculate the risk score corresponding to defined risk levels (i.e., very low, low, medium, high, or
extreme) by multiplying the likelihood of occurrence with the severity of the impact. The calculation
of the interaction risk score is based on the following fundamental equation: Risk = Likelihood x
Severity, where:
4.1. Likelihood is the statistical frequency/probability of specific climate hazard thresholds being
reached historically, and in the future; and
4.2. Severity is a measurement of the climate hazard's consequence of impact on a particular
asset, should that hazard occur.
2.0 Approach and Methodology 10
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
2.2.1.1
Identifying Risk Interactions
Possible risk interactions between the studied climate hazards and community infrastructure were
identified and recorded using an interaction matrix. The interaction matrix was then further expanded
through the formation of vulnerability statements which provided initial general descriptions of the
expected impacts because of the risk interaction.
For example, one initially identified interaction was between the wastewater lagoon and heavy
precipitation, and the corresponding vulnerability statement for this interaction identified a concern
regarding the increased risk of overtopping where untreated or partially treated wastewater can spill
over embankments and flow into surrounding land or bodies of water. The risk scores and vulnerability
statements were then confirmed and distilled with consultations within the Dillon Team.
2.2.1.2
Likelihood of Occurrence
For the purposes of this project, the probability scores were defined using a scale of 1 to 5, with 1
considered to be of the lowest probability (Highly Unlikely) and 5 being the highest probability (Highly
Probable).
The likelihood scoring criteria was tailored for the project by Dillon and was informed by criteria
successfully applied on similar assessments and was adapted from (ISO) 31000:2018 Risk Management
Guidelines. To assign a likelihood score, the historical and future occurrence probability values were
calculated based on the historical and projected climate data for each climate hazard. Historical climate
data was assigned a score from 1 to 5 based on professional judgement using the criteria outlined in
Table 5 below. Historical climate data was assigned a score of "Somewhat Likely" (3) or "Likely" (4).
Assigning a future probability score for each climate hazard required a simple calculation to relate the
future projection back to the historical climate value.
Table 5: Likelihood of Occurrence
Likelihood Score
Descriptor
Probability of event occurring in a year (%)
1
Highly Unlikely
≤ 1
2
Possible
1 - 19
3
Somewhat Likely
20 - 49
4
Likely
50 - 98
5
Highly Probable
≥ 99
2.2.1.3
Severity of Impact
The consequences of climate change impacts were assessed internally by the Dillon team and confirmed
through the adaptation planning workshop. Table 6 displays the scale used to score the severity of the
interactions.
2.0 Approach and Methodology 11
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Table 6: Interactions severity ratings
Severity
Rating
Classification
Consequence Types
Health & Safety
Infrastructure
1
Very Low
No effect
No permanent damage
2
Low
Minor short-term impacts
Minor asset or system damage, minor
repairs
3
Medium
Few injuries, or modest temporary
impact quality of life
Moderate asset or system damage,
minor repairs and some equipment
replacement
4
High
High possibility of injuries or chronic
health issues, or major temporary
impact on quality of life
Significant damage, loss, or require
repairs or complete replacement
5
Extreme
Serious injuries or illnesses, major
permanent impact on quality of life, or
fatalities
Major damage, loss, or require
complete replacement
2.2.1.4
Interaction Risk Score
Following principles of ISO 3100:2018, probability and severity scores were plotted on a risk matrix, as
shown in Figure 2, below. The Risk Matrix is a standard tool for considering probability and impact
severity to assess risk for a given hazard. Each risk level is associated with a different colour and
warrants different responses.
Figure 2: Risk matrix
Risk Classification
Rating
Recommended Risk Treatment
Very Low
1 - 2
Tolerable: risks do not require further consideration
Low
3, 4 and 6
Monitor: controls or coping strategies recommended
Medium
5, 7 - 9
Requires some attention: some controls required to reduce risk levels.
Monitor risk for changes over time.
High
10 - 16
Requires much attention: high priority control measures required
Extreme
20 - 25
Not acceptable: significant controls required
Figure 3: Risk Scoring Criteria
2.0 Approach and Methodology 12
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
A very low score (i.e., blue square in the matrix above) signifies a minimal risk event that does not
require further consideration. A low score (i.e., green square) signifies a low risk where existing
measures are sufficient to manage the risks, but eventual control strategies should be a consideration. A
medium score (i.e., yellow square) signifies a medium risk where action may be required, or risks may be
closely monitored and managed by continuous improvement. A high score (i.e., orange square) signifies
a high risk where high priority is required. An extreme score (i.e., red square) signifies an unacceptable
risk requiring immediate or significant controls to be implemented.
2.2.2
Infrastructure Assessment
2.2.2.1
Infrastructure Assessment Results
Based on the results of the infrastructure assessment, a total of four (4) extreme, twelve (12) high,
seventeen (17) medium, twenty (20) low risk interactions were identified. These risks are presented in
Figure 4 in the next page and further expanded in greater detail in Appendix B. Each identified risk was
assigned an identifier code for ease of reference in the adaptation planning process.
2.0 Approach and Methodology 13
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Figure 4: Infrastructure Assessment Results
2.0 Approach and Methodology 14
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
2.2.2.2
Flooding and Wildfire Assessment Results
Wildfire risk was assessed primarily based on their severity scores (Table 7), as wildfires are driven by a
complex combination of environmental, climatic, and human-related factors. Key elements such as
temperature fluctuations, which can accelerate the drying of vegetation, and prolonged drought-like
conditions that can increase the chances of ignition and rapid spread. Precipitation patterns also play an
important role, as reduced or irregular rainfall can create drier landscapes more susceptible to fires.
Additionally, human activities, such as land use changes, accidental ignitions, or intentional fire-setting,
can contribute to wildlife occurrences. Hence, assigning a likelihood score could not be done with a
sufficient level of certainty.
Table 7. Wildfire Severity Scores
Impact Category
Impact Statement
Severity
Life and Property
Loss of
Infrastructure
Wildfires pose a significant threat to homes, buildings,
and infrastructure, particularly in rural areas where
properties are often more dispersed and lack
firebreaks or fire-resistant construction. Remote
locations face additional challenges, including limited
access for evacuation and delayed firefighting
response.
5
Displacement
of Residents
Wildfires often necessitate large-scale evacuations,
forcing community members to leave their homes
and communities behind. For many, this displacement
can result in the loss of not only their homes but also
their livelihoods, personal belongings, and deep-
rooted connections to their local environment.
5
Health and Safety
Air Quality &
Respiratory Issues
Wildfires generate smoke, which can travel vast
distances. This smoke contains fine particulate matter
and harmful pollutants that, when inhaled, can lead
to severe respiratory issues. Vulnerable populations,
such as children, the elderly, and individuals with pre-
existing conditions like asthma or heart disease, are
particularly at risk of experiencing exacerbated health
problems.
5
Increased Risk of
Injuries & Fatalities
Beyond direct exposure to flames, wildfires can cause
injuries or fatalities through car accidents during
evacuations, smoke inhalation, or accidents involving
falling trees or debris. It is reported that many of the
Community's roads need repair due to ageing,
washouts from flooding, or increased wear from
diverted traffic. If roads are under repair, rapid
response during emergencies may be more difficult.
5
2.0 Approach and Methodology 15
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Flooding is among the most serious natural hazards facing New Brunswick today. Inland flooding is a
type of flood event caused by heavy rainfall or a combination of rainfall and snowmelt. Flood risks are
especially high during the spring, when contributions from melt of the winter snow and ice pack create
peak runoff conditions that exceed local drainage capacities.
Flooding was assessed similarly based on severity scores (Table 8) and a high-level assessment of flood
maps (Appendix C). Some risk factors include precipitation patterns, as heavier rainfall can overwhelm
drainage systems and lead to ponding. The community's proximity to rivers and waterways plays a
significant role in determining flood vulnerability. Additionally, human activities within and adjacent to
the community, such as urbanization or clear-cutting, can exacerbate flood risks by altering drainage
patterns. Given the multifaceted nature of these factors, assigning a precise likelihood score could not
be done with a sufficient level of certainty.
Table 8: Flooding Severity Scores
Impact Category
Impact Statement
Severity
Life and Property
Loss of
Infrastructure
Flooding can cause significant damage to infrastructure,
including road washouts, bridge collapses, and the
inundation of homes, businesses, and public buildings. Such
damage can severely disrupt transportation networks,
making it difficult for emergency services to respond and
for residents to evacuate or access essential resources.
Critical services, such as electricity, water supply, and
communication systems, are also vulnerable to flooding,
leading to widespread outages and further complicating
recovery efforts. These disruptions often culminate in
substantial economic setbacks, as the costs of repairs,
replacements, and lost productivity can be immense.
4
Displacement
of Residents
Flooding often forces evacuations, displacing community
members and causing the loss of homes, livelihoods, and
connections to their local environment. This can lead to
emotional, psychological, and economic challenges, with
some households potentially being permanently uprooted.
This disrupts social networks, cultural ties, and long-term
stability, leaving lasting impacts on mental health and
community cohesion.
4
2.0 Approach and Methodology 16
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
2.2.3
Spatial Assessment
A high-level assessment of several flood maps at four key regions (Former Village of Stanley, Village of
Nashwaak, Penniac, and Penniac East) in the community was also conducted under the following flood
scenarios:
1. The present day 1-in-100 year flood event; and
2. The present day and future 2100 1-in-20 year flood event (with climate change).
Flood limits were sourced from New Brunswick Flood Hazard Maps, an online accessible tool that
allows users to explore areas that may experience potential flooding on the coast and near rivers in New
Brunswick. An example of one map developed is shown in Figure 5 below, which showcases the present
day and future 2100 1-in-20 year flood event in the Former Village of Stanley. New Brunswick Flood
Hazard Maps did not feature complete data for the future 2100 1-in-100 year flood event. For this
reason, only the present day variant was assessed. The complete set of flood maps is available in
Appendix C.
Figure 5: 1-in-20 Year Flood Map - Former Village of Stanley
2.0 Approach and Methodology 17
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Several key observations made are as follows.
Former Village of Stanley
For both the present day 1-in-100 year flood event and the 2100 1-in-20 year flood event, Main Street
access to the Fire Hall is at high risk of flooding. Buildings adjacent to the fire hall located north of Bridge
Street are also at high risk of flooding as they are located close to the flood limits.
Village of Nashwaak
For both the present day 1-in-100 year flood event and the 2100 1-in-20 year flood event, parts of
Nashwaak Village Road is anticipated to be flooded as well as many buildings sitting on the eastern side
of the road.
Penniac East
For both the present day 1-in-100 year flood event and the 2100 1-in-20 year flood event, buildings
located on the south side of Penniac Road (e.g., properties immediately adjacent to 154 Penniac Road)
are projected to be below the flood limits and therefore have high flood risks.
Penniac
For both the present day 1-in-100 year flood event and the 2100 1-in-20 year flood event, Parts of
Canada Street and Price Road are projected to be flooded. Furthermore, several buildings located on
Price Road (e.g., around 834 Canada Street) and the southern side of Penniac Road (e.g., around 154
Penniac Road) are projected to be under high flood risks.
Transportation infrastructure is vital for ensuring connectivity, mobility, and access to emergency
services within and beyond a community. Road networks enable emergency vehicles to navigate
effectively, making their design and resilience critical for public safety. A key concern is the potential
flooding of access roads, which could disrupt connectivity, delay emergency response times, and hinder
evacuation efforts--particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly, people with disabilities,
or those with pre-existing health conditions. The vulnerability assessment highlights several roads at risk
of flooding, which, if compromised, could sever critical links and exacerbate risks during emergencies.
Addressing these vulnerabilities is essential to maintaining reliable access for emergency services and
ensuring community safety.
2.2.4
Social Vulnerability Assessment
2.2.4.1
Secondary Research on Social Vulnerability
To understand the potential climate impacts to more vulnerable groups within the community, Dillon
conducted secondary research using census data and Environics Analytics to gain insight into social
vulnerabilities in NRC. Due to municipal restructuring as a result of local governance reform, some
2.0 Approach and Methodology 18
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
variables for the NRC are not available as part of the Census 2021 data. For the variables of suitable
housing, households paying over 30% of their income for shelter costs, and residents of homes with
major repairs needed, an average was pulled from the Village of Stanley, Stanley Parish, and St. Mary's
Parish.
Census Variables indicating vulnerability among the NRC population with a provincial comparison were
selected from a baseline report provided by the New Brunswick Department of Health, which included
age-related, socio-cultural, and socio-economic indicators.
NRC diverges from the remainder of New Brunswick within two key areas: socio-cultural and core
housing needs. Concerning, socio-cultural indicators, NRC has a smaller percentage of residents who are
recent immigrants, visible minorities, with Indigenous identity, and without knowledge of English or
French. NRC has more significant percentage of residents paying over 30% of their income for shelter
costs and living in dwelling units in needing repair (Statistics Canada 2021).
The population of NRC grew 5% from 2016 to 2021, at a rate slightly higher than the Province of New
Brunswick. The most vulnerable age groups to climate change risks are those between 0 - 4 and over 65.
NRC has a similar age breakdown to the province as a whole. NRC has 5% of its population under 4 years
of age, compared to 4% across New Brunswick, and 21% of NRC is above 65, compared to 23% of the
province (Statistics Canada 2021).
Within the NRC, 9% of residents spend over 30% of their income on shelter. When examining the Village
of Stanley specifically, this percentage increases to 16%, which is significantly greater than Saint Mary's
Parish (7%), Stanley Parish (5%) and the province as a whole (8%). NRC has a higher proportion of
residents in need of significant repairs (10% vs 10%), though in Stanley Parish, the percentage of
dwellings needing major maintenance rises to 18% (Statistics Canada 2021).
The CCAP interviews reveal specific vulnerable groups and socio-economic vulnerabilities that impact
the population. A general lack of awareness and understanding of climate change presents a barrier to
developing and implementing climate adaptation or mitigation measures. Some residents suffer from
generational poverty and have low incomes, making them particularly vulnerable during climate
emergencies as they often lack the financial means to invest in adaptation measures such as improved
insulation, stronger building materials, or flood defences. Two other groups discussed were the elderly
and those with pre-existing health conditions. Both groups face mobility constraints, including the
inability to drive and physical mobility issues, that can add difficulty in evacuating during extreme
weather events such as floods and wildfires. For these reasons, seniors, people with disabilities or pre-
existing health conditions, low-income households, and those with core housing needs were identified
as the primary vulnerable population groups that would be assessed throughout the vulnerability
assessment.
3.0 Adaptation and Implementation Planning 19
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
3.0
Adaptation and Implementation Planning
Potential adaptation options for extreme, high, and medium risk interactions identified during the
vulnerability assessment were discussed and developed at the and adaptation and implementation
planning interviews.
Adaptation options in the context of this report can be characterized primarily by:
-
Physical adaptation of infrastructure through repairing, rebuilding, relocating, retrofitting actions; or
-
Policy adaptation through changes to policies or plans, direction and the goals of the community to
better mitigate the impacts of climate change.
The extreme, high, and medium risk interactions were classified by climate hazard of concern.
Participants then identified and discussed potential adaptation measures to help mitigate impacts
associated with the climate hazards of concern.
To support the implementation of these adaptation measures, a high-level implementation plan was
also developed to help community leaders prioritize actions based on level of risk and relative ease of
implementation based on three key metrics: parties potentially responsible for implementation,
estimated capital resources required, and working timeline. These criteria are explained in Table 9
below.
This CCAP identified 34 adaptation measures that could be implemented, and they are ranked from
highest to lowest priority in Table 10. The table also explores the justifications behind the adaptation
options and what impacts have motivated them. The recommendations listed in the table address the
extreme, high, and medium risks identified throughout the vulnerability assessment and are a
culmination of strategies that have been assessed and confirmed by community stakeholders during the
Adaptation and Implementation Planning Workshop. Ongoing review and update of this ranked list is
recommended as this CCAP moves forward in time. The ongoing review and update allows integration of
new information into adaptation planning, including observations on how effective adaptation measures
are after their initial implementation.
3.0 Adaptation and Implementation Planning 20
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Table 9: Implementation Criteria
Responsibilities
Capital Requirements
Timeline
Driver of action is solely the
municipality
Nashwaak Rural Community (NRC)
$
(Adaptation is estimated to cost
less than $10,000)
Short term
(Action should be initiated
within 0-4 years.)
Municipality may have to consult or
coordinate with Federal organizations
E.g., Natural Resources Canada,
Department of Transport Canada (DTI)
$$
(Adaptation is estimated to cost
between $10,000 and $40,000)
Medium-to-long term
(Action should be initiated
within 5-8 years.)
Municipality could consult or
8coordinate with local organizations
E.g., Nashwaak Watershed Association,
Local Organizations (e.g., community
associations, food banks, community
centres, etc.)
$$$
(Adaptation is estimated to cost
greater than $40,000)
Continuous
(Action to continue or occur
repeatedly beyond .)
3.0 Adaptation and Implementation Planning 21
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Table 10: High-Level Implementation Plan
Priority
Number
Interaction Description
Interaction Codes
(Refer to Appendix B)
Adaptation Option
Type
Responsibilities
Capital
Requirement
Timeline
1
Flooding, Wildfire, High
Temperatures, Low
Temperatures, High Wind Gusts
People
P1, P2, P3, P4, P5, P6, P7, P8, P9,
P10, P11, P12, P13, P14
Climate Change Impact Awareness & Preparedness
Campaign
Policy
NRC, NBEMO, Local
Organizations
$
Short term
2
High Temperatures, Low
Temperatures, Drought
People
P1, P2, P4, P5, P7, P8, P11, P12
Incentivizing Green Retrofits
Policy
NRC, Local
Organizations
$$
Short term
3
Flooding, Wildfire
General
(See Section 2.2.2.2)
Localized Emergency Committees
Policy
NRC, NBEMO, Local
Organizations
$
Short term
4
Wildfire
General
(See Section 2.2.2.2)
Integrate FireSmart Program into EMO Plan
Policy
NRC
$$
Short term
5
Flooding, Wildfire
General
(See Section 2.2.2.2)
Access Homeowner Repair Programs
Policy
NRC, Provincial
Government
$$$
Continuous
7
Drought
Groundwater Wells (Private)
W7
Water Conservation Campaign
Policy
NRC
$$
Short term
8
Drought
Groundwater Wells (Private)
W7
Aquifer Assessment
Policy
NRC
$$
Short term
9
Heavy Precipitation
Lift Station
W2
Inflow & Infiltration Assessment
Policy
NRC
$$
Short term
10
High Temperatures, Heavy
Precipitation
Exterior Finishes
B8, B9
Maintenance and Renewal of Exterior Finishes for
Municipal Buildings
Policy
NRC
$
Continuous
11
High Temperatures
Windows & Doors
B10
Installation of Window Blinds
Physical
NRC
$
Short term
12
Drought
Groundwater Wells (Private)
W7
Municipal Water System Feasibility Assessment
Policy
NRC
$$
Continuous
13
Heavy Precipitation
Stormsewers
W8
Stormwater Management Modeling
Policy
NRC
$$
Continuous
14
Wildfire
General
(See Section 2.2.2.2)
Community Fire Risk Assessment
Policy
NRC, Natural
Resources Canada,
Local Organizations
$$
Medium-
to-long
term
3.0 Adaptation and Implementation Planning 22
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Priority
Number
Interaction Description
Interaction Codes
(Refer to Appendix B)
Adaptation Option
Type
Responsibilities
Capital
Requirement
Timeline
15
Flooding
General
(See Section 2.2.2.2)
Improved Floodplain Management
Policy
NRC
$$
Medium-
to-long
term
16
Flooding
General
(See Section 2.2.2.2)
Flood-Resilient Infrastructure
Physical
NRC, DTI
$$$
Medium-
to-long
term
17
High Temperatures
Roof
B3
Routine Inspections and Maintenance of Roofs for
Heat Damage
Policy
NRC
$
Continuous
18
High Temperatures
Hardscaping (Asphalt & Concrete
Surface)
T1
Routine Inspection and Maintenance of Roads
Policy
NRC, DTI
$
Continuous
19
Heavy Precipitation
Wastewater Lagoon
W1
Upgrade Lagoon Capacity
Physical
NRC
$$$
Medium-
to-long
term
20
Heavy Precipitation, Flooding
Riverbanks
N5
Riverbank Restoration and Riparian Buffers
Physical
NRC, Natural
Resources Canada
$
Medium-
to-long
term
21
Heavy Precipitation, Flooding
Riverbanks
N5
Acquiring Land in High-Risk Flood Areas for
Conservation
Policy
NRC, Natural
Resources Canada;
Nashwaak
Watershed
Association
$$$
Medium-
to-long
term
22
Heavy Precipitation
Culverts & Ditches
W3
Increase Capacity of Ditches and Culverts
Physical
NRC, DTI
$$$
Medium-
to-long
term
23
Heavy Precipitation
Stormsewers
W8
Increase Stormsewer Capacity
Physical
NRC
$$$
Continuous
24
High Temperatures
Roof
B3
Consider Alternative Roof Materials
Physical
NRC
$$-$$$
Continuous
25
High Temperatures
Hardscaping (Asphalt & Concrete
Surface)
T1
Pavement material upgrades
Physical
NRC, DTI
$$$
Continuous
3.0 Adaptation and Implementation Planning 23
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Priority
Number
Interaction Description
Interaction Codes
(Refer to Appendix B)
Adaptation Option
Type
Responsibilities
Capital
Requirement
Timeline
26
High Temperatures
Mechanical Systems
B14
Routine Inspection and Maintenance of Cooling
Systems
Policy
NRC
$
Continuous
27
High Temperatures
Mechanical Systems
B14
Upgrade Cooling Systems
Physical
NRC
$$$
Continuous
28
High Temperatures
Electrical Systems
B17
Improving Grid Resilience
Physical
NRC
$
Continuous
29
High Temperatures
Windows & Doors
B10
Routine Inspection and Maintenance of Windows
Policy
NRC
$
Continuous
30
Heavy Precipitation
Roof
B4
Proper Installation and Maintenance of Roof
Gutters and Downspouts
Physical
NRC
$
Short term
31
Heavy Precipitation
Exterior Finishes
B11
Waterproofing Exterior Walls and Foundations
Physical
NRC
$
Continuous
32
Heavy Precipitation
Groundwater Wells (Private)
W6
Well Maintenance Awareness Campaign
Policy
NRC
$$
Continuous
33
Snow Accumulation
Roof
B6
Routine Snow Removal
Policy
NRC
$
Continuous
34
High Temperatures
Green Infrastructure
N1
Planting Heat-Tolerant & Drought-Resilient
Vegetation
Physical
NRC, Natural
Resources Canada
$-$$
Short term
3.0 Adaptation and Implementation Planning 24
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
3.1
Adaptation Options
The following section catalogues the 34 adaptations listed above.
3.1.1
Physical Adaptations
Priority 11 - Installation of Window Blinds
Installing blinds on windows can help regulate indoor temperatures by reducing the amount of heat
entering or escaping through the glass. During hot weather, closing blinds can block direct sunlight,
keeping interiors cooler. By minimizing temperature fluctuations, blinds also help reduce the strain on
window materials
Priority 16 - Invest in Flood-Resilient Infrastructure
Investing in flood-resilient infrastructure can be a critical strategy for protecting communities from flood
impacts. This can involve elevating critical infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and utilities to
withstand flooding and maintain their functions during and after flood events. Several roads have been
identified to be at high risk of flooding, such as Main Street (Stanley), Nashwaak Village Road (Village of
Nashwaak), Penniac Road, Price Road, and Canada Street (Penniac). Constructing flood barriers, levees,
or retention ponds in strategic locations can also help divert or contain floodwaters, reducing damage to
homes, businesses, and municipal facilities.
Priority 19 - Upgrade Lagoon Capacity
Lagoon expansion through increasing hydraulic capacity (i.e. dredging). Increasing hydraulic capacity
address the issue of overflow by providing more room to hold both wastewater and stormwater during
heavy rainfall events.
Priority 20 - Riverbank Restoration and Establish Riparian Buffers
Establishing vegetated strips of land along riverbanks with native plants, trees, and grasses can
significantly reduce erosion and improve water absorption, which can help slow and manage
floodwaters. This can also provide additional ecological benefits, such as wildlife habitat and water
filtration. Once established, riparian buffers require relatively low maintenance, especially if native
vegetation is used.
Priority 22 - Increase Ditch and Culvert Capacities
Upgrading or expanding the capacity of existing drainage infrastructure to handle higher volumes of
runoff during heavy precipitation, reducing the likelihood of localized flooding.
3.0 Adaptation and Implementation Planning 24
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
3.1
Adaptation Options
The following section catalogues the 34 adaptations listed above.
3.1.1
Physical Adaptations
Priority 11 - Installation of Window Blinds
Installing blinds on windows can help regulate indoor temperatures by reducing the amount of heat
entering or escaping through the glass. During hot weather, closing blinds can block direct sunlight,
keeping interiors cooler. By minimizing temperature fluctuations, blinds also help reduce the strain on
window materials
Priority 16 - Invest in Flood-Resilient Infrastructure
Investing in flood-resilient infrastructure can be a critical strategy for protecting communities from flood
impacts. This can involve elevating critical infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and utilities to
withstand flooding and maintain their functions during and after flood events. Constructing flood
barriers, levees, or retention ponds in strategic locations can also help divert or contain floodwaters,
reducing damage to homes and businesses.
Priority 19 - Upgrade Lagoon Capacity
Lagoon expansion through increasing hydraulic capacity (i.e. dredging). Increasing hydraulic capacity
address the issue of overflow by providing more room to hold both wastewater and stormwater during
heavy rainfall events.
Priority 20 - Riverbank Restoration and Establish Riparian Buffers
Establishing vegetated strips of land along riverbanks with native plants, trees, and grasses can
significantly reduce erosion and improve water absorption, which can help slow and manage
floodwaters. This can also provide additional ecological benefits, such as wildlife habitat and water
filtration. Once established, riparian buffers require relatively low maintenance, especially if native
vegetation is used.
Priority 22 - Increase Ditch and Culvert Capacities
Upgrading or expanding the capacity of existing drainage infrastructure to handle higher volumes of
runoff during heavy precipitation, reducing the likelihood of localized flooding.
Priority 23 - Increase Storm Sewer Capacity
Increasing the size of pipes and stormwater drainage systems can accommodate higher volumes of
water. This might involve upgrading storm sewer systems by installing larger pipes or additional storm
drains in areas prone to flooding.
3.0 Adaptation and Implementation Planning 25
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Priority 24 - Consider Alternative Roof Materials
Alternatives include installing lighter-colored shingles to reduce heat absorption, ensuring proper attic
ventilation to prevent heat buildup, and using sheet metal or slate roofing as durable, weather-resistant
options instead of asphalt shingles.
Priority 25 - Pavement Material Upgrades
Asphalt binder upgrade, increasing HMA layer thickness, or using modified HMA are some of the
strategies many studies suggest reducing the risks of pavement structure failure because of degradation
over time from increased temperature and precipitation. Further investigation is necessary to further
examine the cost-effectiveness of these adaptation strategies.
Priority 27 - Upgrade Cooling Systems
Using more energy-efficient cooling systems or upgrading existing systems can help reduce the amount
of energy needed to cool a building, thereby reducing the strain on the system during extreme heat.
Priority 28 - Improve Grid Resilience
Small-scale upgrades to existing infrastructure can help prevent overheating and failures in transformers
and other equipment without requiring major overhauls. Protective equipment such as fuses or circuit
breakers can be installed in critical areas to prevent overloads from high energy demand.
Priority 30 - Proper Installation and Maintenance of Roof Gutters and Downspouts
Design roofs with an appropriate slope to direct water toward gutters and downspouts are correctly
sized, and well-maintained.
Priority 31 - Waterproofing Exterior Walls and Foundations
Waterproofing exterior walls with proper waterproofing sealants helps protect them from water
damage. It reduces the risk of mold growth, decay, and weakening of building material.
3.1.2
Policy Adaptations
Priority 1 - Climate Awareness & Preparedness Campaign
The municipality recently signed on to Voyent Alert; a multi-purpose communication services and
alerting app. In an initiative to further community resilience, this program could be coupled with an
educational campaign based on preparing for and responding to various severe weather events. This can
include information such as staying hydrated and recognizing symptoms of heat illness during
heatwaves, where to access heating centers during cold spells, information on flooding and wildfire
risks, evacuation plans, and fire safety practices.
3.0 Adaptation and Implementation Planning 26
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Priority 2 - Incentivizing Green Retrofits
Encourage rural households to acquire green retrofits (e.g., home insulation, space heating) through
incentives and rebates. This would also include educating community members on programs such as the
Canada Greener Homes Initiative; run by the Federal Government, which seeks to provide grants to
households to be more climate resilient.
Priority 3- Localized Emergency Committees
Organize ward-based volunteer or neighborhood teams trained to assist in the evacuation of vulnerable
individuals. These teams could be mobilized quickly in case of severe emergency events such as flooding
or wildfire to ensure that at-risk people such as elderly, children, or those with mobility issues are
assisted in evacuations.
Priority 4 - Integrate FireSmart Program into EMO Plan
By integrating the FireSmart Program into the EMO plan, communities can take a comprehensive,
proactive approach to wildfire management, ensuring greater safety and resilience for residents and
infrastructure.
Priority 5 - Access Homeowner Repair Programs
Funding programs such as the Repair and Renewal option of the Affordable Housing Fund, or the
Government of New Brunswick's Homeowner Repair program can be proactive measure to prepare for
wildfires is vital for enhancing the resilience of homes and communities. By retrofitting properties with
flood-resistant materials, elevating structures, and improving drainage systems, homeowners can
protect their homes from water intrusion and reduce the risk of structural damage.
These programs can also help homeowners implement fire-resistant improvements, such as installing
fire-resistant roofing, creating defensible space around properties, and reinforcing windows and doors
to prevent ember intrusion. These proactive measures not only safeguard the property but also reduce
long-term financial and emotional stress during and after a flood event. Additionally, repairing and
reinforcing homes before flooding occurs helps ensure quicker recovery, supports community resilience,
and reduces the overall impact on local economies and resources.
Priority 7 - Water Conservation Campaign
Public education campaigns promoting water conservation practices, such as efficient irrigation systems,
rainwater harvesting, and reduced water usage, to alleviate pressure on groundwater resources -
especially during hot summers.
Priority 8 - Aquifer Assessment
Aquifer assessments help identify areas at risk of over-extraction, contamination, or depletion by
analyzing groundwater levels, flow patterns, and quality. By understanding the vulnerabilities of local
3.0 Adaptation and Implementation Planning 27
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
aquifers, communities can implement sustainable water management practices, such as regulating
extraction rates, protecting recharge zones, and preventing contamination from agricultural or industrial
activities.
Priority 9 - Inflow and Infiltration Assessment
Conduct evaluations to identify and quantify excess water entering lift stations through inflow and
infiltration and recommending remediation strategies. Municipality should seek funding from the
Environmental Trust Fund to potentially complete this assessment.
Priority 10 - Maintenance and Renewal of Exterior Finishes for Municipal Building
Regularly inspect and seal cracks and gaps to mitigate water intrusion because of wind-directed rain.
Sealing as needed can help maintain building performance and prevent minor issues from escalating to
major repairs. This routine should also inspect existing heat mitigation elements, such as shade
structures and reflective coatings. When renewing, opt for heat-resistant options like reflective or light-
colored paints and coatings that can withstand prolonged sun exposure.
Priority 12 - Municipal Water System Feasibility Assessment
Such an assessment is a comprehensive evaluation to determine the viability of establishing, upgrading,
or expanding a community's water supply and distribution system. This assessment can be an important
action to investigate the feasibility of a centralized water system to ensure reliable, safe, and sustainable
water access, especially in the face of climate change and growing demands.
Priority 13 - Stormwater Management Modelling
Modelling supports the evaluation of existing stormwater control systems and help develop strategies to
mitigate overland flood risks in flood-prone areas through the identification of drainage system
improvements.
Priority 14 - Community Fire Risk Assessment
Conducting a fire risk assessment involves systematically identifying fire hazards and evaluating risks in
order to take appropriate actions to reduce or eliminate potential threats. One potential outcome could
be the identification of activities of surrounding municipalities or private organizations in near vicinity of
Nashwaak that could heighten wildfire risks and working with the right authorities to address them.
Priority 15 - Improved Floodplain Management (Establish or Enforce Zoning Regulations in
Floodplains)
Implement zoning regulations that prevent development in high-risk flood zones identified through
flood risk assessments, while promoting flood-resistant building practices. Consider enforcing
compliance through a permitting process, regular inspections, and penalties for non-compliance. This
3.0 Adaptation and Implementation Planning 28
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
coupled with regularly updating zoning maps and engaging the community can support long-term
resilience and adaptability to changing flood risks.
Priority 17 - Routine Roof Inspections for Heat Damage
Timely inspections can be done to ensure that minor issues are addressed appropriately before they
escalate into major roofing problems. This can also assist in identifying potential problems to watch for
in the future (e.g. cracking, shrinking, damage to flashing).
Priority 18 - Routine Inspection and Maintenance of Roads
Establish a routine inspection and maintenance schedule to regularly check for and address heat-related
damage, extending the lifespan of the infrastructure.
Priority 21 - Acquire Land in High-Risk Flood Areas for Conservation
With support from watershed associations, purchasing and preserving land in high-risk flood areas for
conservation can restore natural ecosystems, such as wetlands and floodplains, which act as natural
buffers against flooding by absorbing and slowing floodwaters. Partnering with watershed associations
and leveraging funding opportunities can make this strategy cost-effective and community-driven,
ensuring a sustainable and environmentally conscious path toward flood mitigation and ecosystem
restoration.
Priority 26 - Routine Inspection and Maintenance of Cooling Systems
Ensuring that cooling systems are well-maintained helps them run more efficiently and reduces the risk
of breakdowns during periods of extreme heat. Regular maintenance can prevent service disruptions,
extend the life of the system, and reduce the need for costly repairs or upgrades in the future.
Priority 29 - Routine Inspection and Maintenance of Windows
Regularly inspecting and maintaining window seals ensures early detection of any damage, which can
prevent further deterioration. Reapply sealant or caulk around the window edges as necessary,
especially after noticing any cracking or shrinkage from weather exposure.
Priority 32 - Well Maintenance Awareness Campaign
Public education campaigns can raise awareness about the importance of well maintenance and flood
preparedness. This can include information on the importance of regular inspection and maintenance of
private wells with proper casing and secure seals. In addition, it could also inform residents to consider
elevating wellheads and installing backflow prevention devices to further reduce contamination risks.
Priority 33 - Routine Snow Removal
If snow accumulates significantly, timely inspection and removal of snow from the roof can reduce
weight load that the roof must support.
3.0 Adaptation and Implementation Planning 29
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Priority 34 - Planting Heat-Tolerant and Drought-Resilient Vegetation
Plant native and drought-tolerant species that can withstand both heat and wet conditions (e.g., Red
Maple (Acer rubrum), Eastern White Cedar (Thuja occidentalis), and Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum).).
These species are better adapted to regional conditions and can withstand temperature fluctuations and
drought conditions.
4.0 Conclusion 30
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
4.0
Conclusion
In summary, the climate change vulnerability assessment completed for Nashwaak Rural Community
identified four (4) extreme, twelve (12) high, seventeen (17) medium, twenty (20) low risk interactions
from the vulnerability assessment. Medium, high, and extreme risks were prioritized and brought
forward to the adaptation planning process. The high-level flood risk assessment found various
segments of the community's road infrastructure and buildings to be vulnerable to the 2100 1-in-20 year
and present day 1-in-100 year flood events. As the global climate grows unstable, the frequency and
severity of inclement weather such as very hot days, heavy precipitation, or even drought-like
conditions can also be anticipated to increase. More extreme multi-variable dependent events such as
wildfire remain difficult to accurately predict but the significant impacts they can bring to a community
necessitates a robust and comprehensive emergency management plan.
In total, thirty-four (34) unique adaptation options were identified to support climate resilience within
the community. This Climate Change Adaptation Plan identifies a path forward for the Community to
proactively prepare for the anticipated climate change impacts for the region. As time progresses, new
climate information and modelling technologies will emerge and so this plan will require ongoing
monitoring and review of the adaptation measures and implementation plan outlined in Section 3.0 of
this report.
4.1
Limitations
The climate change hazards used in this project were obtained from several sources, each using
separate projection models with inherent limitations. Generally, the uncertainty found in climate
projections can be divided into three main categories:
1. Natural climate variability (i.e., the natural fluctuations of the climate on timescales ranging from
days to decades);
2. Models (i.e., different parameterizations in models can lead to somewhat different climate change
signals or properties); and
3. Scenarios (i.e., future CO2 emissions, representative concentration pathways).
Uncertainty categories 1 and 2 relate to the use of large ensembles of models. Using a large ensemble
will ultimately help develop a measure of the natural climate variability, which is related to the spread of
the simulations estimated by looking at the 10th, 25th, 75th and 90th percentiles for each climate
indicator.
Uncertainty category 3 is covered by using the most realistic RCP scenarios (namely RCP 8.5) to align
with the current progress of global GHG emission reductions. RCP 8.5 aligns with the current "business
4.0 Conclusion 31
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
as usual" trend of no significant reduction in global GHG emissions, and a possibility of continued growth
in atmospheric loadings of global GHGs.
This report was prepared by Dillon Consulting Limited for the sole benefit of our Client for the purposes
outlined in our approved scope of work. The material in it reflects Dillon's best judgment in light of the
information available to it at the time of preparation. Any use which a third party makes of this report,
or any reliance on or decisions made based on it, are the responsibilities of such third parties. Dillon
accepts no responsibility for damages, if any, suffered by any third party as a result of decisions made or
actions based on this report.
A - 1
Appendix A
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
A Engagement Survey Results
Nashwaak Rural Community Climate Change Adaptation Plan - Community Survey
1 / 12
Q1
What do you feel are climate impacts of concern for the Nashwaak
Rural Community? Select top 3 climate concerns.
Answered: 14
Skipped: 0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
High
temperatures
Low
temperatures
Heavy rainfall
Heavy snowfall
High winds
Tropical storms
Flooding
Forest Fire
Drought
Other (please
specify)
Nashwaak Rural Community Climate Change Adaptation Plan - Community Survey
2 / 12
14.29%
2
7.14%
1
50.00%
7
7.14%
1
42.86%
6
7.14%
1
64.29%
9
50.00%
7
28.57%
4
28.57%
4
Total Respondents: 14
ANSWER CHOICES
RESPONSES
High temperatures
Low temperatures
Heavy rainfall
Heavy snowfall
High winds
Tropical storms
Flooding
Forest Fire
Drought
Other (please specify)
Nashwaak Rural Community Climate Change Adaptation Plan - Community Survey
3 / 12
Q2
Which places do you feel are at high risk of climate change impacts?
Think of various social, economic, built, or natural spaces in the Nashwaak
area. Select all that apply.
Answered: 13
Skipped: 1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Residential
buildings: your
home, your...
Parks:
playgrounds,
parks, and...
Forest and
walking trails
Along or on
the Nashwaak
River and ot...
Agricultural
lands and
natural yard...
Community
buildings:
recreational...
Schools and
workplaces
Businesses:
restaurants,
service...
Arts & Culture
venues:
heritage sit...
Hospitals,
care
facilities, ...
Transportation
infrastructure:
roads and...
Nashwaak Rural Community Climate Change Adaptation Plan - Community Survey
4 / 12
76.92%
10
15.38%
2
15.38%
2
69.23%
9
53.85%
7
15.38%
2
15.38%
2
7.69%
1
7.69%
1
7.69%
1
61.54%
8
Total Respondents: 13
ANSWER CHOICES
RESPONSES
Residential buildings: your home, your neighbors' and loved ones' homes
Parks: playgrounds, parks, and nature reserves
Forest and walking trails
Along or on the Nashwaak River and other waterways
Agricultural lands and natural yard gardens
Community buildings: recreational facilities, community resource centres, churches, etc.
Schools and workplaces
Businesses: restaurants, service providers, retail spaces, etc.
Arts & Culture venues: heritage sites, community markets, etc.
Hospitals, care facilities, and social services facilities
Transportation infrastructure: roads and sidewalks
Nashwaak Rural Community Climate Change Adaptation Plan - Community Survey
5 / 12
53.85%
7
7.69%
1
53.85%
7
84.62%
11
69.23%
9
Q3
The following list of statements represent potential social risks posed
by climate change. Select the 3 risks you are most concerned about in
your community.
Answered: 13
Skipped: 1
Total Respondents: 13
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
More extreme
weather events
leading to...
More hot days
reducing the
use of outdo...
More extreme
weather events
causing...
More extreme
weather events
causing powe...
More heavy
rainfall
leading to...
ANSWER CHOICES
RESPONSES
More extreme weather events leading to higher mental and physical health impacts
More hot days reducing the use of outdoor spaces and disrupting community events
More extreme weather events causing dangerous travel conditions
More extreme weather events causing power outages impacting internet or other connectivity
More heavy rainfall leading to flooding causing displacement as a result of damage to roadways and homes
Nashwaak Rural Community Climate Change Adaptation Plan - Community Survey
6 / 12
30.77%
4
100.00%
13
76.92%
10
30.77%
4
46.15%
6
Q4
The following list of statements represent potential economic or
infrastructure risks posed by climate change. Select the 3 risks you are
most concerned about in your community.
Answered: 13
Skipped: 1
Total Respondents: 13
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
More extreme
weather events
causing...
More extreme
weather events
causing dama...
More heavy
rainfall
causing roof...
More hot days
increasing
demand on th...
More ideal
conditions for
insects and...
ANSWER CHOICES
RESPONSES
More extreme weather events causing dangerous travel conditions
More extreme weather events causing damage to power lines and utility infrastructure that businesses rely on
More heavy rainfall causing roof leaks, flooding, and damage to privately owned assets and infrastructure
More hot days increasing demand on the power grid
More ideal conditions for insects and pests, impacting agricultural crops
Nashwaak Rural Community Climate Change Adaptation Plan - Community Survey
7 / 12
69.23%
9
38.46%
5
76.92%
10
15.38%
2
30.77%
4
61.54%
8
69.23%
9
Q5
The following list of statements represent potential environmental risks
posed by climate change. Select the 4 risks you are most concerned about
in your community.
Answered: 13
Skipped: 1
Total Respondents: 13
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
More extreme
weather events
causing the...
More heavy
rainfall
causing more...
Rising
temperatures
leading to...
Rising
temperatures
disrupting...
Rising
temperatures
causing chan...
Rising
temperatures
and drier da...
Rising
temperatures
and drier da...
ANSWER CHOICES
RESPONSES
More extreme weather events causing the riverbank and steep slopes to erode, and the destruction of habitats in the
floodplain
More heavy rainfall causing more flooding and more surface runoff to carry contaminants into waterways and
groundwater supplies
Rising temperatures leading to higher risk of forest fires, heatwaves. and poor air quality
Rising temperatures disrupting plant growth
Rising temperatures causing changes in species distribution and stunted rare and common plant growth
Rising temperatures and drier days leading to lower water levels in lakes and rivers
Rising temperatures and drier days stressing forests, wetlands, and groundwater supplies
Nashwaak Rural Community Climate Change Adaptation Plan - Community Survey
8 / 12
Q6
Rank each government-led action from very important to very
unimportant
Answered: 13
Skipped: 1
38.46%
5
0.00%
0
7.69%
1
23.08%
3
30.77%
4
13
2.92
23.08%
3
7.69%
1
30.77%
4
15.38%
2
23.08%
3
13
2.92
7.69%
1
61.54%
8
7.69%
1
15.38%
2
7.69%
1
13
3.46
23.08%
3
23.08%
3
38.46%
5
15.38%
2
0.00%
0
13
3.54
7.69%
1
7.69%
1
15.38%
2
30.77%
4
38.46%
5
13
2.15
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Retrofit
Programs:
Financial...
Community
Education
Campaigns:...
Climate Data
Monitoring:
Track...
Green
Infrastructure
and Restorat...
Sensitive Area
Protection &
Land Use...
1
2
3
4
5
TOTAL
SCORE
Retrofit Programs: Financial incentives for homeowners to
make energy-efficient upgrades and flood-proof their
homes.
Community Education Campaigns: Inform the public about
climate risks specific to Nashwaak and how to prepare for
them (e.g. FireSmart program that supports improvements
in emergency planning, preparation and response to
wildfire impacts).
Climate Data Monitoring: Track climate-related data to
inform future adaptation efforts and policy decisions,
including the Northside Flood Resiliency Project and Water
Quality Monitoring - Facilitating Environmental
Stewardship organized by Petitcodiac Watershed Alliance.
Green Infrastructure and Restoration Projects: Develop
green infrastructure like wetlands, parks, and greenways to
manage floodwaters and provide recreational spaces,
including the Forested Wetlands Project or Nashwaak
River Bank Stabilization Project organized by Nashwaak
Watershed Association Inc.
Sensitive Area Protection & Land Use Planning Reform:
Regulate development on environmentally sensitive areas
like rivers, streams, wetlands, steep slopes, organic soils,
and groundwater recharge / discharge areas, including
McLeod Hill and the Nashwaak River floodplain.
Nashwaak Rural Community Climate Change Adaptation Plan - Community Survey
9 / 12
Q7
Do you have other Actions or Strategies that you would like to see the
Government implement?
Answered: 3
Skipped: 11
Answers have been synthesized and included as Section 3.0 of the report
Nashwaak Rural Community Climate Change Adaptation Plan - Community Survey
10 / 12
Q8
Rank each community-led action from very important to very
unimportant.
Answered: 13
Skipped: 1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Lot Level
Flood
Preparedness...
Home Energy
Efficiency and
Resiliency:...
Heat Safety
Practices:
Adopt person...
Waste
Reduction and
Recycling...
Local Food
Production:
Support loca...
Climate
Resilience
Planning:...
Nashwaak Rural Community Climate Change Adaptation Plan - Community Survey
11 / 12
7.69%
1
7.69%
1
30.77%
4
7.69%
1
15.38%
2
30.77%
4
13
2.92
53.85%
7
7.69%
1
15.38%
2
15.38%
2
0.00%
0
7.69%
1
13
4.77
0.00%
0
15.38%
2
7.69%
1
15.38%
2
46.15%
6
15.38%
2
13
2.62
0.00%
0
15.38%
2
23.08%
3
23.08%
3
23.08%
3
15.38%
2
13
3.00
38.46%
5
23.08%
3
7.69%
1
23.08%
3
7.69%
1
0.00%
0
13
4.62
0.00%
0
30.77%
4
15.38%
2
15.38%
2
7.69%
1
30.77%
4
13
3.08
1
2
3
4
5
6
TOTAL
SCORE
Lot Level Flood Preparedness: Implement
measures like Natural Yard Pledge & Wildlife
Friendly Gardening and Rain Gardens to reduce
flooding on personal properties.
Home Energy Efficiency and Resiliency:
Upgrade insulation, windows, and
heating/cooling systems to reduce energy
consumption and improve comfort during
extreme weather.
Heat Safety Practices: Adopt personal heat
safety measures such as staying hydrated,
using fans, and checking on vulnerable
neighbors during heatwaves.
Waste Reduction and Recycling Initiatives:
Encourage waste reduction through recycling
programs, composting, and initiatives to reduce
single-use plastics.
Local Food Production: Support local food
production through farmers' markets and
supporting local agriculture to reduce food
miles and promote sustainable farming
practices.
Climate Resilience Planning: Develop plans to
enhance the community's resilience to climate
impacts, including the Village of Stanley
Emergency Action Plan and the Climate
Adaptation Plan these efforts support.
Nashwaak Rural Community Climate Change Adaptation Plan - Community Survey
12 / 12
Q9
Do you have other Actions or Strategies that you would like to see the
Community of Nashwaak implement?
Answered: 2
Skipped: 12
Answers have been synthesized and included as Section 3.0 of the report
B - 1
Appendix B
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
B Vulnerability Assessment Results
B - 1
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Table B-1. Expanded Vulnerability and Risk Table
Code
Infrastructure
Hazard
Vulnerability
Historical Risk Score
(1981 - 2010)
Projected Risk Score
(2050s)
Projected Risk Score
(2080s)
Building Infrastructure
B1
Foundation/Structure
Heavy Precipitation
Heavy rain can impact building foundations by saturating the surrounding soil, leading to soil erosion, uneven settlement,
and increased hydrostatic pressure against foundation walls. This can cause foundation cracks, misalignment, or even
shifting and tilting of the structure.
4
4
4
B2
Foundation/Structure
Freeze-Thaw Cycles
When water enters cracks in the foundation and freezes in cold weather, it expands, putting pressure on the material. This
can cause cracks, surface damage, and weaken the foundation over time. Repeated freezing and thawing can further
weaken the structure.
5
5
4
B3
Roof
High Temperatures
Higher temperatures can cause materials such as asphalt, shingles, and metal to expand and contract, which can lead to
cracking, warping, and weakening of exterior walls, reducing their lifespan.
4
8
10
B4
Roof
Heavy Precipitation
Heavy precipitation can cause ponding and poor roof drainage may lead to water infiltration and damage to other building
components, disrupting service and requiring repairs
8
8
8
B5
Roof
Freeze-Thaw Cycles
Damage roof membrane over time due to expansion/contraction and possible ice build-up; Long-term wear and tear may
increase maintenance cost and shorten asset life
5
5
4
B6
Roof
Snow Accumulation
As snow piles up on the roof, it adds weight to the structure, which can stress the roof and potentially lead to sagging or
even collapse if the weight exceeds the roof's capacity.
12
12
121
B7
Roof
High Wind Gusts
Damage from wind-blown debris is possible but is expected to have a small impact to building roof potentially requiring
minor repairs
3
-
3
B8
Exterior Finishes
High Temperatures
Higher temperatures can cause materials such as wood, concrete, and brick to expand and contract, which can lead to
cracking, warping, and weakening of exterior walls, reducing their lifespan.
4
8
10
B9
Exterior Finishes
Heavy Precipitation
Heavy precipitation can damage a building's exterior finishes by allowing water to infiltrate cracks and gaps, leading to
water damage, mold growth, or weakening of materials.
8
8
8
B10
Windows & Doors
High Temperatures
More extreme temperature fluctuations can cause materials used in windows to expand and contract. This repeated
movement can weaken seals, cause cracks in the glass, and degrade the window frame over time.
4
8
10
B11
Windows & Doors
Heavy Precipitation
Wind-directed rain can put pressure on the seals around windows. If the seals (weatherstripping or caulking) are
compromised or degraded, rainwater can seep through gaps into the building. This can cause water damage to the window
frame, the surrounding wall, and the interior of the building.
4
4
4
B12
Windows & Doors
Freeze-Thaw Cycles
Damage seals over time due to expansion/contraction; Long-term wear and tear may increase maintenance costs and
shorten asset life
10
10
8
B13
Windows & Doors
High Wind Gusts
Wind loading; Risk of debris damaging windows - Wind damage is possible but is expected to have a small impact to building
envelope requiring minor repairs
6
-
6
B14
Mechanical Systems
High Temperatures
Extreme hot temperatures could overwhelm the cooling system's capacity which may lead to increased energy demand,
temporary service disruption, and expensive replacement costs to increase capacity for the future.
2
4
5
B15
Mechanical Systems
Heavy Precipitation
Wind-directed rain can penetrate rooftop HVAC systems and damage ducts
4
4
4
B16
Mechanical Systems
High Wind Gusts
In the case of roof mounted HVAC units, high winds can potentially remove grilles and filters, and bend ducts out of shape.
6
-
6
B17
Electrical Systems
High Temperatures
Higher average temperatures can strain electrical grids and equipment, leading to higher demand for cooling systems and
potentially causing overheating or failures in transformers, switchgear, and other electrical components.
2
4
5
B18
Electrical Systems
High Wind Gusts
Temporary service disruptions may occur due to power outages
3
-
3
B19
Power Lines
High Wind Gusts
Wider temporary service disruptions may occur due to power outages
9
-
9
Transportation
T1
Hardscaping (Asphalt &
Concrete Surface)
High Temperatures
Under high temperatures, road surfaces are at higher risk of softening, cracking, rutting, leading to overall degradation of
the road infrastructure
4
8
10
T2
Hardscaping (Asphalt & C
oncrete Surface)
Heavy Precipitation
Rain loading/flash flooding - May erode supporting soils but unlikely to have a direct impact on hard surfaces
4
4
4
1 Risk score for Roof - Snow Accumulation was downgraded from a high to medium risk as roof design typically considers safety factors.
B - 2
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Code
Infrastructure
Hazard
Vulnerability
Historical Risk Score
(1981 - 2010)
Projected Risk Score
(2050s)
Projected Risk Score
(2080s)
T3
Hardscaping (Asphalt &
Concrete Surface)
Freeze-Thaw Cycles
Accelerated damage with more freeze-thaw cycles; Long-term wear and tear may increase maintenance costs and shorten
asset life
5
5
4
T4
Walking Trails
(Gravel or Natural)
Heavy Precipitation
Heavy rain can lead to the erosion of trail surfaces, particularly on dirt, gravel, or soil-based trails.
4
4
4
T5
Signage and Streetlights
High Wind Gusts
High winds can impact road signage and streetlights, causing damage or displacement.
3
-
3
Fleet
F1
Fire Department Vehicles
High Temperatures
Increased ambient temperatures can reduce the ability for engine cooling. If overheated, it can lead to reduced
performance, potential damage to engine components, and even engine failure.
2
4
52
Water, Wastewater, and Stormwater
W1
Wastewater Lagoon
Heavy Precipitation
Heavy rain can impact water levels in wastewater lagoon, potentially leading to overflow of untreated or partially treated
wastewater. This can lead to the contamination of surrounding area.
12
12
12
W2
Lift Station
Heavy Precipitation
Lift station pumps may by impacted if significant inflow and infiltration is present, causing increased operational costs or
potential discharge to the surrounding environment through emergency overflow.
12
12
12
W3
Culverts & Ditches
Heavy Precipitation
Heavy precipitation events can result in higher volumes of runoff entering ditches and culverts, exceeding their capacity and
causing localized flooding.
8
8
8
W4
Culverts & Ditches
Snow Accumulation
Snow, if not cleared, can be packed down impacting flow from culverts and ditches, potentially leading to localized flooding
during winter rain events.
6
6
6
W5
Culverts & Ditches
High Wind Gusts
Wind-swept debris can impact ditches and culverts, obstructing flow and potentially leading to localized flooding
6
-
6
W6
Groundwater Wells
(Private)
Heavy Precipitation
Heavy precipitation causing localized flooding may result in potential contamination based on increased water run off.
However, we assume most private wells have proper casing and are appropriately maintained.
8
8
8
W7
Groundwater Wells
(Private)
Drought
Drought can lower groundwater well levels and degrade water quality.
8
8
12
W8
Stormsewers
Heavy Precipitation
Heavy precipitation events can result in higher volumes of runoff entering the piping system, exceeding their capacity and
causing localized flooding.
8
8
8
W9
Stormsewers
Freeze-Thaw Cycles
Freeze-thaw cycles can lead to ground subsidence around pipes, potentially causing settlement and structural instability.
4
4
4
Natural Infrastructure
N1
Green Infrastructure
High Temperatures
Increased watering costs and cost of transitioning to warmer climate landscaping; However extreme heat can cause more
pronounced damage to green infrastructure, which has not been quantified as part of this risk due to unknowns.
2
4
5
N2
Green Infrastructure
Heavy Precipitation
Heavy precipitation can impact green infrastructure and surrounding soils.
4
4
4
N3
Green Infrastructure
Drought
Risk of damage to trees and landscaping, and other green infrastructure.
4
4
6
N4
River and Waterways
Drought
Low water levels can restrict use and reduce intake for firefighting capacity
4
4
6
N5
Riverbanks
Heavy Precipitation
Heavy precipitation can increase water levels and cause shoreline erosion lead which can lead to loss of land
12
12
12
People
P1
Seniors
High Temperatures
Seniors can be more vulnerable to heat-related illnesses (e.g. heat exhaustion and heat stroke). Chronic health conditions
such as respiratory issues and heart disease can worsen in the heat. Without relief, extreme cases can potentially lead to
hospitalization or death.
10
20
25
P2
People with disabilities
High Temperatures
High temperatures can be especially harmful to people with disabilities, as certain conditions may affect their ability to
regulate body temperature or respond to heat. Mobility impairments can limit access to cooling methods, while sensory or
cognitive disabilities might make it harder to recognize or communicate the need for hydration or rest. Additionally, some
medications used by people with disabilities may increase sensitivity to heat, raising the risk of heat exhaustion or heat
stroke.
8
16
20
P3
People in core
housing need
High Temperatures
People in core housing need are vulnerable to heat due to inadequate housing, lack of cooling, and overcrowded conditions.
Financial constraints and limited access to healthcare increase the risk of heat-related illnesses.
8
16
20
P4
Low-Income Households
High Temperatures
Low-income households are at greater risk during heatwaves due to limited access to cooling, financial constraints, limited
access to healthcare, and poor housing. This increases the likelihood of heat-related illnesses.
8
16
20
2 Risk score for Fire Department Vehicles - High Temperatures was downgraded from a medium to low risk due to their robustness to high temperatures in their initial design.
B - 3
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Code
Infrastructure
Hazard
Vulnerability
Historical Risk Score
(1981 - 2010)
Projected Risk Score
(2050s)
Projected Risk Score
(2080s)
P5
Seniors
Low Temperatures
Cold temperatures can impact elderly populations due to reduced circulation and a weakened ability to sense temperature
changes. This increases the risk of hypothermia. Chronic conditions and limited mobility also make it harder for this
population to stay warm, further heightening vulnerability to cold-related health issues.
16
12
8
P6
People with disabilities
Low Temperatures
Mobility impairments may make it difficult to access heating or seek shelter in warmer spaces, increasing the risk of
prolonged exposure to the cold. Sensory disabilities, such as blindness or deafness, can prevent individuals from sensing the
drop in temperature, while cognitive or developmental disabilities may affect their ability to recognize the symptoms of
hypothermia or frostbite.
16
12
8
P7
People in core
housing need
Low Temperatures
Without adequate warmth, these households face an increased risk of hypothermia, frostbite, and other cold-related health
issues. Limited access to healthcare and resources further exacerbates the danger, making it harder for individuals to
recover from cold exposure.
16
12
8
P8
Low-Income Households
Low Temperatures
Without adequate warmth, these households face an increased risk of hypothermia, frostbite, and other cold-related health
issues. Limited access to healthcare and resources further exacerbates the danger, making it harder for individuals to
manage from cold exposure.
16
12
8
P9
People in core
housing need
High Wind Gusts
Wind-swept debris can cause serious injury or death, especially in areas with poorly constructed buildings or insufficient
wind protection which is often the case with households in core housing need.
9
-
9
P10
Low-Income Households
High Wind Gusts
Wind swept debris can cause serious injury or death, especially in areas with poorly constructed buildings or insufficient
wind protection.
9
-
9
C - 1
Appendix C
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
C Flood Maps
C - 2
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
Flood Risk Assessment Process
Dillon analyzed the flood limits within key regions of higher population centers within NRC. This being
the former Village of Stanley, Village of Nashwaak, Penniac, and Penniac-East. The present day and
2100 flood maps are publicly accessible through the "New Brunswick Flood Hazard Maps" published by
Service New Brunswick. The following scenarios were assessed:
1. The present day 1-in-100 year flood event; and
2. The present day and 2100 1-in-20 year flood event (with climate change).
A "1-in-100 year flood" means that there is a 1% chance of this level of flooding occurring in a given year
at a specific location. While a 1-in-100 year flood represents a relatively rare event, it's crucial to be
prepared for such occurrences, as they can cause significant damage and pose risks to life and property.
In practice, regions and municipalities often use this concept to establish zoning regulations ad
insurance requirements in flood-prone areas. This approach is part of a broader strategy to consider and
mitigate the impacts of flooding and protect public safety.
Note: New Brunswick Flood Hazard Maps did not feature complete data for the future 2100
1-in-100 year flood event. For this reason, only the present day variant was assessed. Production
of a future 2100 1-in-100 year flood map (with climate change) may be an action to be undertaken
following the publishing of this CCAP.
0
0.25
0.5
0.13
km²
FILE LOCATION: K:\2024\249222\Product\Client\Flood Mapping\Flood Mapping.aprx
PROJECT:
STATUS:
DATE:
24-9222
DRAFT
2025-01-20
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
PENNIAC EAST
1 IN 100 YEAR FLOOD MAP
NASHWAAK CLIMATE
ADAPTATION PLAN
MAP DRAWING INFORMATION:
DATA PROVIDED BY DILLON, GEONB
MAP CREATED BY:
MAP CHECKED BY:
MAP PROJECTION:
DS
JM
NAD 1983 CSRS New Brunswick Stereographic
SCALE 1:10,000
Present Day - 1 in 100 year
Building
Watercourse
Parcel
Wetland
Waterbody
Municipal Boundary
KEY MAP
0
0.25
0.5
0.13
km²
FILE LOCATION: K:\2024\249222\Product\Client\Flood Mapping\Flood Mapping.aprx
PROJECT:
STATUS:
DATE:
24-9222
DRAFT
2025-02-25
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
PENNIAC EAST
1 IN 20 YEAR FLOOD MAP
NASHWAAK CLIMATE
ADAPTATION PLAN
MAP DRAWING INFORMATION:
DATA PROVIDED BY DILLON, GEONB
MAP CREATED BY:
MAP CHECKED BY:
MAP PROJECTION:
DS
JM
NAD 1983 CSRS New Brunswick Stereographic
SCALE 1:10,000
Building
Present Day - 1 in 20 year
2100 Flood with Climate Change - 1 in 20 year
Watercourse
Parcel
Wetland
Municipal Boundary
KEY MAP
0
0.25
0.5
0.13
km²
FILE LOCATION: K:\2024\249222\Product\Client\Flood Mapping\Flood Mapping.aprx
PROJECT:
STATUS:
DATE:
24-9222
DRAFT
2025-01-20
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
PENNIAC
1 IN 100 YEAR FLOOD MAP
NASHWAAK CLIMATE
ADAPTATION PLAN
MAP DRAWING INFORMATION:
DATA PROVIDED BY DILLON, GEONB
MAP CREATED BY:
MAP CHECKED BY:
MAP PROJECTION:
DS
JM
NAD 1983 CSRS New Brunswick Stereographic
SCALE 1:10,000
Present Day - 1 in 100 year
Building
Watercourse
Parcel
Wetland
Waterbody
Municipal Boundary
KEY MAP
0
0.25
0.5
0.13
km²
FILE LOCATION: K:\2024\249222\Product\Client\Flood Mapping\Flood Mapping.aprx
PROJECT:
STATUS:
DATE:
24-9222
DRAFT
2025-02-25
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
PENNIAC
1 IN 20 YEAR FLOOD MAP
NASHWAAK CLIMATE
ADAPTATION PLAN
MAP DRAWING INFORMATION:
DATA PROVIDED BY DILLON, GEONB
MAP CREATED BY:
MAP CHECKED BY:
MAP PROJECTION:
DS
JM
NAD 1983 CSRS New Brunswick Stereographic
SCALE 1:10,000
Building
Present Day - 1 in 20 year
2100 Flood with Climate Change - 1 in 20 year
Watercourse
Parcel
Wetland
Municipal Boundary
KEY MAP
0
0.15
0.3
0.07
km ²
FILE LOCATION: K:\2024\249222\Product\Client\Flood Mapping\Flood Mapping.aprx
PROJECT:
STATUS:
DATE:
24-9222
DRAFT
2025-01-20
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
FORMER VILLAGE OF STANLEY
1 IN 100 YEAR FLOOD MAP
NASHWAAK CLIMATE
ADAPTATION PLAN
MAP DRAWING INFORMATION:
DATA PROVIDED BY DILLON, GEONB
MAP CREATED BY:
MAP CHECKED BY:
MAP PROJECTION:
DS
JM
NAD 1983 CSRS New Brunswick Stereographic
SCALE 1:6,400
Present Day - 1 in 100 year
Building
Watercourse
Parcel
Wetland
Waterbody
Municipal Boundary
KEY MAP
Community Office
Stanley Fire Hall
0
0.15
0.3
0.07
km ²
FILE LOCATION: K:\2024\249222\Product\Client\Flood Mapping\Flood Mapping.aprx
PROJECT:
STATUS:
DATE:
24-9222
DRAFT
2025-02-25
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
FORMER VILLAGE OF STANLEY
1 IN 20 YEAR FLOOD MAP
NASHWAAK CLIMATE
ADAPTATION PLAN
MAP DRAWING INFORMATION:
DATA PROVIDED BY DILLON, GEONB
MAP CREATED BY:
MAP CHECKED BY:
MAP PROJECTION:
DS
JM
NAD 1983 CSRS New Brunswick Stereographic
SCALE 1:6,400
Building
Present Day - 1 in 20 year
2100 Flood with Climate Change - 1 in 20 year
Watercourse
Parcel
Wetland
Municipal Boundary
KEY MAP
Community Office
Stanley Fire Hall
0
0.25
0.5
0.13
km²
FILE LOCATION: K:\2024\249222\Product\Client\Flood Mapping\Flood Mapping.aprx
PROJECT:
STATUS:
DATE:
24-9222
DRAFT
2025-01-20
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
1 IN 100 YEAR FLOOD MAP
NASHWAAK CLIMATE
ADAPTATION PLAN
MAP DRAWING INFORMATION:
DATA PROVIDED BY DILLON, GEONB
MAP CREATED BY:
MAP CHECKED BY:
MAP PROJECTION:
DS
JM
NAD 1983 CSRS New Brunswick Stereographic
SCALE 1:10,000
Present Day - 1 in 100 year
Building
Watercourse
Parcel
Wetland
Waterbody
Municipal Boundary
KEY MAP
VILLAGE OF NASHWAAK
0
0.25
0.5
0.13
km²
FILE LOCATION: K:\2024\249222\Product\Client\Flood Mapping\Flood Mapping.aprx
PROJECT:
STATUS:
DATE:
24-9222
DRAFT
2025-02-25
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
VILLAGE OF NASHWAAK
1 IN 20 YEAR FLOOD MAP
NASHWAAK CLIMATE
ADAPTATION PLAN
MAP DRAWING INFORMATION:
DATA PROVIDED BY DILLON, GEONB
MAP CREATED BY:
MAP CHECKED BY:
MAP PROJECTION:
DS
JM
NAD 1983 CSRS New Brunswick Stereographic
SCALE 1:10,000
Building
Present Day - 1 in 20 year
2100 Flood with Climate Change - 1 in 20 year
Watercourse
Parcel
Wetland
Municipal Boundary
KEY MAP
References - i
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
References
Berry, P., & Schnitter, R. (Eds.). (2022). Health of Canadians in a Changing Climate: Advancing our
Knowledge for Action. Ottawa, ON: Government of Canada. Available online:
https://changingclimate.ca/health-in-a-changing-climate/
Bush, E., Gillett, N., Watson, E., Fyfe, J., Vogel, F. and Swart, N. (2019): Understanding Observed Global
Climate Change; Chapter 2 in Canada's Changing Climate Report, (ed.) E. Bush and D.S. Lemmen;
Government of Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, p. 24-72. Retrieved from:
https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/sites/www.nrcan.gc.ca/files/energy/Climate-change/pdf/CCCR_FULLREPORT-
EN-FINAL.pdf
Cannon, Alex, Jeong, Dae Il, Zhang, Xuebin and Zwiers, Francis, 2020: Climate-Resilient Buildings and
Core Public Infrastructure: An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Climatic Design Data In
Canada. Environment and Climate Change Canada.
CBC News (2019): Climate Change Poses Threat to New Brunswick Public Health. Avaiiable online:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/climate-change-health-new-brunswick-report-
1.5188818
CCOHS (2023). Climate Change: Extreme Weather - Cold. Available online:
https://www.ccohs.ca/oshanswers/safety_haz/climate/climate-change-extreme-weather-cold.html
Cheng C.S., Lopes E., Fu C., Huang Z., 2014, Possible impacts of climate change on wind gusts under
downscaled future climate conditions: Updated for Canada. J. Climate 27(3): 1255-1270.
Cheng, C. S., Li, G., and Auld, H, 2011: Possible impacts of climate change on freezing rain using
downscaled future climate scenarios: Updated for eastern Canada. Atmos.-Ocean, 49, 8-21.
Environment Canada, 2019, Canadian Climate Normals: 1981-2010 Climate Normals & Averages.
http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_normals/index_e.html
Eyquem, J. and Feltmate, B. 2022). Irreversible Extreme Heat: Protecting Canadians and Communities
from a Lethal Future. Available online: https://www.intactcentreclimateadaptation.ca/wp-
content/uploads/2022/04/UoW_ICCA_2022_04-Irreversible-Extreme-Heat.pdf
Government of New Brunswick Canada. (2023). A Guide for Climate Change Adaptation Planning for
New Brunswick Communities. Available online:
https://www2.gnb.ca/content/dam/gnb/Departments/env/pdf/Climate-Climatiques/guide-for-climate-
change-adaptation-planning.pdf
References - ii
Nashwaak Rural Community
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
February 2025 - 24-9222
CMHC (2024): Homeowner Repair Program. Available online:
https://www2.gnb.ca/content/dam/gnb/Departments/sd-
ds/pdf/Housing/HomeownerRepairProgram.pdf
Mitchell, S.J. (2019): Community Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. Available online:
https://d2akrl9rvxl3z3.cloudfront.net/downloads/sjr_cccva_2017_full_report_final.pdf
NB Power (2023). Outages and Weather. Available online:
https://www.nbpower.com/en/outages/preparing-for-outages/outages-and-
weather#:~:text=Common%20failures%20associated%20with%20severe,of%20our%20power%20being
%20restored.
New Brunswick Canada (2025): Climate Change and Your Health. Available online:
https://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/corporate/promo/climate-change/your-health.html
Public Health Agency of Canada (2024). An intersectional analysis of the disproportionate health impacts
of wildfires on diverse populations and communities. Available online:
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/healthy-living/rapid-review-
intersectional-analysis-disproportionate-impacts-wildfires-diverse-populations-communities.html