Growth Management Strategy — full text

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TOWN OF ERIN Growth Management Strategy Final October 2019 | 19-9450 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1.0 Introduction 1 1.1 Report Organization ............................................................................................................ 3 2.0 Growth Management Strategy Process 4 2.1 Community Input ................................................................................................................ 4 2.1.1 Overview of Consultation Activities ..................................................................................... 4 2.2 Summary ............................................................................................................................. 5 3.0 Policy Framework 6 3.1 Provincial Policy................................................................................................................... 6 3.1.1 Provincial Policy Statement (2014) ...................................................................................... 6 3.1.2 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2019) ........................................................ 7 3.2 County of Wellington Official Plan ....................................................................................... 8 3.2.1 Official Plan Amendment No. 99 .......................................................................................... 9 3.3 Town of Erin Official Plan ..................................................................................................... 9 3.3.1 Wastewater Treatment Class Environmental Assessment .................................................. 13 4.0 Urban Land Supply 15 4.1 Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 15 4.2 Potential Development Areas ............................................................................................ 15 4.3 Designated Community Lands ........................................................................................... 17 4.4 Designated Employment Lands .......................................................................................... 17 4.5 Summary ........................................................................................................................... 18 5.0 Existing Conditions 19 5.1 Land Use ........................................................................................................................... 19 5.1.1 Existing Land Use - Hillsburgh ............................................................................................ 19 5.1.3 Existing Land Use - Erin ...................................................................................................... 20 5.2 Infrastructure Review ........................................................................................................ 21 5.3 Water and Wastewater Servicing ....................................................................................... 21 5.3.1 Wastewater Servicing ........................................................................................................ 21 5.3.2 Water Servicing ................................................................................................................. 23 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 ii 5.4 Transportation .................................................................................................................. 26 5.4.1 Transportation Existing Conditions .................................................................................... 26 5.4.2 Transportation Capacity Analysis ....................................................................................... 29 5.5 Natural Heritage ................................................................................................................ 30 5.5.1 Natural Heritage Assessment ............................................................................................. 30 5.6 Slope Risk .......................................................................................................................... 31 5.7 Summary ........................................................................................................................... 34 6.0 Regional and Local Economic Overview 37 6.1 Greater Golden Horseshoe Population and Employment Outlook, 2041 ............................ 37 6.2 Wellington County Population and Employment Growth Outlook, 2041 ............................ 39 6.3 Town of Erin Economic Trends ........................................................................................... 41 6.3.1 Town of Erin Labour Force Trends, 2001 to 2016 ............................................................... 41 6.3.2 Town of Erin Commuting Trends ........................................................................................ 42 6.3.3 Town of Erin Employment Trends ...................................................................................... 44 6.3.4 Town of Erin Employment Trends by Place of Work ........................................................... 45 6.3.5 Town of Erin Employment Trends by Sector....................................................................... 46 6.4 Observations ..................................................................................................................... 47 7.0 Population, Household and Employment Growth Outlook, 2016 to 2041 49 7.1 What Drives Population Growth? ...................................................................................... 49 7.2 Population Growth Drivers in the Town of Erin .................................................................. 49 7.2.1 Outward Growth Pressure from the Greater Golden Horseshoe ........................................ 49 7.2.2 Population Growth of the 55+ Age Group .......................................................................... 50 7.2.3 Attracting Millennials and Generation Z ............................................................................. 51 7.2.4 Quality of Life .................................................................................................................... 51 7.3 Town of Erin Population, Household and Employment Forecast, 2016 to 2041 .................. 52 7.3.1 Labour Growth Potential Within the Town of Erin Commuter-Shed ................................... 52 7.3.2 Population, Housing and Employment Growth Potential, 2016 to 2041 ............................. 53 7.3.3 Town of Erin Housing Forecast, 2016 to 2041 .................................................................... 54 7.3.4 Town of Erin Employment Forecast, 2016 to 2041 ............................................................. 55 7.3.5 Share of Town of Erin Population and Employment Growth Relative to Wellington County, 2016 to 2041 ........................................................................................................ 56 7.3.6 Observations ..................................................................................................................... 57 8.0 Residential and Non-Residential Growth Forecast by Planning Policy Area 58 8.1 Housing Forecast by Planning Policy Area, 2016 to 2041 .................................................... 58 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 iii 8.2 Employment Forecast by Sector and by Planning Policy Area, 2016 to 2041....................... 59 9.0 Urban Land Needs Analysis 60 9.1 Urban Land Demand, 2019 to 2041 ................................................................................... 60 9.1.1 Community Land Needs ..................................................................................................... 60 9.1.2 Employment Land Needs ................................................................................................... 61 9.1.3 Summary ........................................................................................................................... 62 10.0 Growth Allocation Scenarios 63 10.1 Evaluation Framework ....................................................................................................... 63 10.2 Issues and Opportunities ................................................................................................... 64 10.2.1 Land Use ........................................................................................................................... 64 10.2.2 People and Jobs ................................................................................................................. 65 10.2.3 Natural Heritage Features ................................................................................................. 65 10.2.4 Transportation .................................................................................................................. 66 10.2.5 Water ................................................................................................................................ 67 10.3 Summary of Growth Allocation .......................................................................................... 67 11.0 Preferred Growth Option and Phasing 68 11.1 Preferred Scenario ............................................................................................................. 68 11.1.1 Recommended Phasing ..................................................................................................... 68 11.1.2 Preferred Growth Allocation Scenario................................................................................ 70 12.0 Recommendations and Next Steps 72 12.1 Recommended Official Plan Policy Directions .................................................................... 72 12.2 Next Steps ......................................................................................................................... 73 Figures Figure 1: Study Area ............................................................................................................................. 2 Figure 2: Official Plan Land Use - Erin Village...................................................................................... 11 Figure 3: Official Plan Land Use - Hillsburgh ....................................................................................... 12 Figure 4: Land Supply - Erin and Hillsburgh ........................................................................................ 16 Figure 5: Development Area Comparison ........................................................................................... 22 Figure 6: Wastewater Servicing Network - Erin and Hillsburgh ........................................................... 24 Figure 7: Water Servicing Network - Erin and Hillsburgh .................................................................... 25 Figure 8: Transportation Network - Erin and Hillsburgh...................................................................... 27 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 iv Figure 9: Natural Features - Erin and Hillsburgh ................................................................................. 32 Figure 10: Slope Risk - Erin and Hillsburgh .......................................................................................... 33 Figure 11: Refined Land Supply - Erin ................................................................................................. 35 Figure 12: Refined Land Supply - Hillsburgh ....................................................................................... 36 Figure 13: The Town of Erin within the Context of the Greater Golden Horseshoe .............................. 38 Figure 14: Historical and Forecast Annual Employment Growth Rate for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2001 to 2041 ................................................................................................... 39 Figure 15: Long-Term Population and Employment Growth for Wellington County, 2016 to 2041 ...... 40 Figure 16: Annual Population Growth Rate, 2016 to 2041 .................................................................. 40 Figure 17: Annual Employment Growth Rate, 2016 to 2041................................................................ 41 Figure 18: Town of Erin Employed Labour Force Base 2001, 2006, and 2016 ...................................... 42 Figure 19: Town of Erin Primary Commuter-Shed ............................................................................... 43 Figure 20: Where Town of Erin Employees Commute to Work, 2016 .................................................. 44 Figure 21: Town of Erin Historical Employment Base .......................................................................... 45 Figure 22: Town of Erin Employment Base by Sector, 2016 (Usual Place of Work) .............................. 46 Figure 23: Town of Erin Employment Trends by Major Sector, 2006 and 2016 .................................... 47 Figure 24: Town of Erin Forecast Out-Commuters, 2016 to 2041 ........................................................ 52 Figure 25: Town of Erin Employed Labour Force by Sector, 2001 to 2041 ........................................... 53 Figure 26: Town of Erin Population Forecast, 2016 to 2041 ................................................................ 54 Figure 27: Town of Erin Long-term Housing Forecast .......................................................................... 55 Figure 28: Town of Erin Employment Base forecast, 2016 to 2041 ...................................................... 56 Figure 29: Wellington County Share of Growth by Municipalities, 2001 to 2041 ................................. 56 Figure 30: Wellington County Employment Growth by Municipality, 2016 to 2041 ............................. 57 Figure 31: Preferred Growth Scenario ................................................................................................ 69 Tables Table 1: Report Organization ................................................................................................................ 3 Table 2: Growth Plan Population and Employment Projections ............................................................ 7 Table 3: County of Wellington Population and Household Projections .................................................. 8 Table 4: Distribution of Population in the Town of Erin ......................................................................... 8 Table 5: Employment Projections in the Town of Erin ........................................................................... 9 Table 6: Town of Erin Official Plan Population, Household and Employment Forecasts ....................... 10 Table 7: Community Land Supply as of 2019 by Settlement ................................................................ 17 Table 8: Employment Land Supply as of 2019 by Settlement .............................................................. 17 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 v Table 9: Wellington Road 124 - Existing Capacity Analysis .................................................................. 29 Table 10: Wellington Road 24 - Existing Capacity Analysis .................................................................. 29 Table 11: Historical and Forecast Population Growth for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2001 to 2041 .................................................................................................................................. 38 Table 12: Historical and Forecast Employment Growth for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2001 to 2041 .............................................................................................................................. 39 Table 13: Town of Erin Historical Labour Force, 2001-2016................................................................. 42 Table 14: Town of Erin Relationship Between Employment (Local Jobs) and Employment Labour Force, 2006 to 2016 ........................................................................................................... 46 Table 15: Town of Erin Working-Age Population Forecast, 2016 to 2041 ............................................ 53 Table 16: Town of Erin Population Forecast, 2016 to 2041 ................................................................. 54 Table 17: Town of Erin Residential Housing Growth, 2016-2041 ......................................................... 58 Table 18: Town of Erin Employment Growth by Planning Area, 2016 to 2041 ..................................... 59 Table 19: Town of Erin Employment Growth within Community Lands, 2019 to 2041 ......................... 59 Table 20: Town of Erin Community Lands Designated Greenfield Residential and Non-residential Land Needs, 2019-2041 ..................................................................................................... 61 Table 21: Town of Erin Community Land Average Population and Employment Density, 2019 to 2041 .................................................................................................................................. 61 Table 22: Employment Land Demand, 2019-2041 ............................................................................... 62 Table 23: Evaluation Criteria............................................................................................................... 63 Table 24: Land Use Considerations ..................................................................................................... 64 Table 25: People and Jobs .................................................................................................................. 65 Table 26: Natural Heritage Features Constraints................................................................................. 65 Table 27: Transportation Considerations ............................................................................................ 66 Table 28: Wastewater Servicing ......................................................................................................... 66 Table 29: Water Servicing ................................................................................................................... 67 Table 30: Preferred Growth Allocation Scenario: Population & Housing Forecast by Settlement Area, 2019-2041 ................................................................................................................ 70 Table 31: Employment Projections ..................................................................................................... 70 Table 32: Summary of Wastewater Capacity....................................................................................... 71 Appendices A Community Growth Survey Results B Oﬃcial Plan Amendment No. 99 C Table of Contents for EIS D Detailed PopulaƟon and Housing Forecasts Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 vi Executive Summary The Town of Erin's (the Town) ability to accommodate growth has been limited for some Ɵme, largely due to infrastructure capacity constraints. The Town has undertaken several iniƟaƟves to address the infrastructure challenges in recent years, for example, the Urban Centre Wastewater Servicing Class Environmental Assessment (UCWS EA) and the Municipal Water Supply EA (ongoing). These infrastructure investments will support exisƟng development and growth in the Town's Urban Centres. The Town's current supply of designated residenƟal land in Erin and Hillsburgh exceeds demand to 2041; therefore, the Growth Management Strategy (GMS) must provide guidance on where to direct growth within the 2041 planning horizon. This study takes into consideraƟon land use planning, infrastructure planning and market demand factors. The purpose of this report is to provide a recommended framework for growth to 2041 that is aligned with the UCWS EA. Community Input Community members and stakeholders contributed valuable input at key decisions points in the process by providing context and background from diﬀerent perspecƟves. This helped to idenƟfy issues and opportuniƟes associated with potenƟal growth areas in the Town. Community engagement was achieved through a variety of mechanisms, including an online Community Growth Survey, stakeholder meeƟngs, Technical Advisory Group and Steering CommiƩee meeƟngs (including public members), social media posts, Erin ConnecƟon newsleƩers, the Erin Advocate, and through the Town's website. Policy Context Growth management in Ontario is governed by a number of provincial policy documents. SecƟon 3 of the GMS report summarizes the relevant policies that guide growth management in the Town, including provincial, county and local plans. The Provincial Policy Statement (PPS) provides direcƟon on maƩers of provincial interest related to land use planning and development. The PPS requires that planning authoriƟes provide land uses and infrastructure to meet the long-term employment needs of its projected populaƟon, including the provision of a range and mix of land uses. Through the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Growth Plan), the Province also establishes minimum density and intensiﬁcaƟon targets for municipaliƟes to implement through their Oﬃcial Plans (OP). The Growth Plan requires that the County of Wellington (County) achieves a minimum Greenﬁeld density of 40 residents and jobs combined per hectare within the horizon of the Growth Plan. The County's OP also provides a populaƟon forecast to 2041, based on the Growth Plan, and further deﬁnes how that populaƟon is to be allocated to lower-Ɵer municipaliƟes such as the Town. Table 1 illustrates the populaƟon distribuƟon in the Town. In addiƟon to this, employment is projected to grow by 1,470 to a total of 5,240 jobs by 2041. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 vii Table1: Distribution of Population in the Town of Erin Wellington Oﬃcial Plan PopulaƟon Households 2016 2036 2041 2016 2036 2041 Town of Erin 12,365 15,360 to 16,250 15,865 to 18,905 4,115 5,185 to 5,480 5,385 to 6,340 Hillsburgh and Erin 4,415 6,500 to 7,390 7,000 to 10,040 1,530 2,235 to 2,530 2,420 to 3,375 Outside of Urban Centres 7,950 8,860 8,865 2,585 2,950 2,965 The Ontario Municipal Board oversaw an appeal on the County's OP, known as Oﬃcial Plan Amendment (OPA) No. 99. The appeal resulted in changes to Tables 1 and 7 and Policy 3.5.1 of the County's OP. The Minutes of SeƩlement are aƩached as an Appendix to this report. The study area for this GMS includes the Urban Centres of the Town, Hillsburgh and Erin (Figure 1). Within both Urban Centres, the Town's OP designates land based on the following land use categories: · ResidenƟal; · Future Development; · Central Business District; · Highway Commercial; · ResidenƟal TransiƟon; · Industrial; · Core Greenlands; · Greenlands; and · RecreaƟonal. Figure 2 and Figure 3 illustrate the applicable land use designaƟons, Built Boundary and Urban Centre boundaries in Hillsburgh and Erin, respecƟvely. Community Areas are made up of ResidenƟal and ResidenƟal TransiƟon land use designaƟons. Employment Areas are made up of Central Business District, Highway Commercial and Industrial land uses. Within each of the Urban Centres, the Town has established a Built Boundary. The Built Boundary is deﬁned by the province as the limits of the developed urban area deﬁned by the Minister in consultaƟon with aﬀected municipaliƟes for the purpose of measuring the minimum intensiﬁcaƟon target. Lands outside of the Built Boundary, but within the Urban Centre are described as Greenﬁeld lands intended to accommodate future growth. Erin Hillsburgh Wellington Road 52 Trafalgar Road Wellington Road 22 Main Street Tenth Line Sideroad 17 Sixth Line Shamrock Road Wellington Road 23 Sideroad 15 Fifth Line Wellington Road 124 Si deroad 24 Fourth Line Eighth Line S tation Street Sideroad 10 Sideroad 27 Dundas Street East Ninth Line TOWN OF ERIN GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY STUDY AREA FIGURE 1 NORTH Scale 1:30,000 [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Limited Map Checked by: MM Dillon Consulting Limited October 10, 2019 Document Path: G:\GIS\199450 Erin Growth Management Strategy\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Figure 1 - Study Area.mxd LEGEND Base Mapping Built Boundary Urban Centre / Hamlet Municipal Boundary Defferal Area 2 Study Area Potential Wastewater Treatment Plant Site 0 500 1,000 250 Metres Def. #2 SPA1 SPA6 Tenth Line Wellington Road 52 Sideroad 17 Wellington Road 124 Wellington Road 23 Wellington Road 22 Sideroad 15 Ninth Line Winston Churchill Boulevard Sixth Line Sideroad 10 Trafalgar Road Dundas Street East Eighth Line Main Street The Greenlands System Core Greenland Greenland TOWN OF ERIN GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY OFFICIAL PLAN LAND USE - ERIN VILLAGE FIGURE 2 NORTH Scale 1:25,000 0 500 1,000 250 Metres [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Limited Map Checked by: MM Dillon Consulting Limited October 10, 2019 Official Plan Land Use Residential Country Residential Residential Transition Secondary Agricultural Hamlet Industrial Central Business District Highway Commercial Recreational Future Development Defferal Area 2 Policy Area LEGEND Base Mapping County Road Other Road Parcel Built Boundary Urban Centre / Hamlet Municipal Boundary Document Path: G:\GIS\199450 Erin Growth Management Strategy\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Figure 2 - Official Plan Land Use - Erin Village.mxd Potential Wastewater Treatment Plant Site PA2-2 PA2-3 Hilltop Road Trafalgar Road Sixth Line Fifth Line Wellington Road 22 Sideroad 27 Eighth Line Ninth Line Sideroad 24 Station Street TOWN OF ERIN GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY OFFICIAL PLAN LAND USE - HILLSBURGH FIGURE 3 NORTH Scale 1:15,000 0 500 1,000 250 Metres [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Limited Map Checked by: MM Dillon Consulting Limited October 09, 2019 Document Path: G:\GIS\199450 Erin Growth Management Strategy\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Figure 3 - Official Plan Land Use - Hillsburgh.mxd LEGEND The Greenlands System Core Greenland Greenland Official Plan Land Use Residential Residential Transition Secondary Agricultural Hamlet Industrial Central Business District Highway Commercial Recreational Future Development Policy Area Base Mapping County Road Other Road Proposed Minor Collector Parcel Built Boundary Urban Centre / Hamlet Municipal Boundary Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 xi Within each of the Urban Centres, the Town has established a Built Boundary. The Built Boundary is deﬁned by the province as the limits of the developed urban area deﬁned by the Minister in consultaƟon with aﬀected municipaliƟes for the purpose of measuring the minimum intensiﬁcaƟon target. Lands outside of the Built Boundary, but within the Urban Centre are described as Greenﬁeld lands intended to accommodate future growth. Land Supply To idenƟfy the supply of available land to accommodate future growth in the Town, lands were reviewed based on land use designaƟon and status (i.e., developed or vacant). Lands designated for residenƟal and employment uses within the Urban Centre were included in the land supply analysis. Vacant, designated areas within the Built Boundary were considered as potenƟal IntensiﬁcaƟon Areas, whereas vacant, designated areas beyond the Built Boundary but within the Urban Centres were considered as potenƟal Greenﬁeld Areas. The land area calculaƟons remove (net out) lands that prohibit development, such as natural heritage features, infrastructure corridors, etc., as well as developed parcels and parcels less than 1 ha. The potenƟal developable area includes lands with no constraint to development from a land use designaƟon perspecƟve, as well as lands subject to an Environmental Impact Study (EIS) including potenƟal buﬀers from environmental features as well as ConservaƟon Authority Regulated Areas. These areas would be further evaluated and conﬁrmed through a future EIS process. The potenƟal development areas idenƟﬁed are illustrated on Figure 4. In Erin Village, there are four (4) Greenﬁeld areas which are located outside of the Built Boundary and are included as part of this analysis. In Hillsburgh, there are four (4) Greenﬁeld areas which are located outside of the Built Boundary; however, one area was removed from the analysis as it is not currently designated for residenƟal or employment uses. The land supply analysis found that there is 249 gross ha of designated residenƟal land within Erin and Hillsburgh. Speciﬁcally, 29 gross ha are within the Built Boundary and the remaining 220 ha are within Greenﬁeld areas. There is approximately 48 gross ha of designated employment lands in Erin and Hillsburgh. Wastewater Servicing It is recognized that growth in the Town was previously constrained due to the lack of municipal servicing. The Town conducted an Environmental Assessment for future wastewater servicing, referred to as the UCWS EA. In August 2019, the Ministry of Environment, ConservaƟon and Parks denied three (3) Part II Orders that were ﬁled following the formal public review period of the EA process. With the denial of the Part II Orders, the Town can proceed with the design and construcƟon of the wastewater infrastructure idenƟﬁed within the Environmental Study Report. The future wastewater servicing design proposed as part of the EA is illustrated on Figure 5. Servicing segments 1, 2, 3 and 4 have been idenƟﬁed to connect the exisƟng and future units to the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). Two potenƟal locaƟons for the wastewater treatment plant were idenƟﬁed on the southeast side of Erin, which will have an impact on future growth scenarios due to construcƟon of infrastructure. The ﬁnal site selecƟon is dependent on Ɵming and will be made in conjuncƟon with the wastewater treatment plant project moving forward. Erin Hillsburgh Wellington Road 52 Trafalgar Road Wellington Road 22 Main Street Tenth Line Sideroad 17 Sixth Line Shamrock Road Wellington Road 23 Sideroad 15 Fifth Line Wellington Road 124 Si deroad 24 Fourth Line Eighth Line S tation Street Sideroad 10 Sideroad 27 Dundas Street East Ninth Line Area C Intensification Area B Area A Intensification Area C Intensification Area A Area D Area G Area H Area F Intensification Area D Area E Area B TOWN OF ERIN GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY LAND SUPPLY - ERIN AND HILLSBURGH FIGURE 4 NORTH Scale 1:30,000 [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Limited Map Checked by: MM Dillon Consulting Limited October 10, 2019 Document Path: G:\GIS\199450 Erin Growth Management Strategy\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Figure 4 - Land Supply - Erin and Hillsburgh.mxd LEGEND Base Mapping Built Boundary Urban Centre / Hamlet Municipal Boundary Potential Development Area Defferal Area Area 2 Future Development Area Potential Wastewater Treatment Plant Site 0 500 1,000 250 Metres Erin Hillsburgh Wellington Road 52 Trafalgar Road Wellington Road 22 Main Street Tenth Line Sideroad 17 Sixth Line Shamrock Road Wellington Road 23 Sideroad 15 Fifth Line Wellington Road 124 Si deroad 24 Fourth Line Eighth Line S tation Street Sideroad 10 Sideroad 27 Dundas Street East Ninth Line Segment # 1 Segment # 4 Segment # 3 Segment # 2 Area C Intensification Area B Area A Intensification Area C Intensification Area A Area D Area G Area H Area F Intensification Area D Area E Area B TOWN OF ERIN GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY WASTEWATER SERVICING NETWORK - ERIN AND HILLSBURGH FIGU RE 5 NORTH Scale 1:30,000 [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Lim ited Map Ch eck ed by: MM Dillon Consulting Lim ited October 10, 2019 Docum ent Path : G:\GIS\199450 Erin Grow th Managem ent Strategy\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Ex ec Figure 5 - Wastew ater Servicing Netw ork - Erin and Hillsburgh - Copy.m x d LEGEND Base Mapping Built Boundary U rban Centre / Ham let Municipal Boundary Potential Developm ent Area Defferal Area 2 Future Developm ent Area Potential Wastew ater Treatm ent Plant Site 0 500 1,000 250 Metres Wastewater Servicing Forcem ain Gravity Sew er Segm ent #1 Segm ent #2 Segm ent #3 Segm ent #4 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 xiv ExisƟng CondiƟons ExisƟng condiƟons are reviewed and summarized in SecƟon 5, including land use, water and wastewater infrastructure, transportaƟon infrastructure, natural heritage features as well as slope risk. Based on this, constraints were idenƟﬁed, including but not limited to the following: · Land use constraints such as proximity to exisƟng development and ease of development. · Natural environmental constraints such as wetlands, core Greenlands and areas of natural and scienƟﬁc interest exist throughout the study area. A future EIS will be required to evaluate and conﬁrm delineaƟon of features and appropriate buﬀers and/or miƟgaƟon. · TransportaƟon constraints such as future capacity on County Road 124 in Erin. · Infrastructure constraints such as availability of water and wastewater services. This analysis helped inform the development of evaluaƟon criteria to assess the potenƟal development areas idenƟﬁed. Economic Overview As part of the GMS process, it is important to acknowledge the Town's role in the context of the regional and local economy. Based on the populaƟon and employment outlook within the Greater Golden Horseshoe and the County (through Oﬃcial Plan Amendment No. 99), populaƟon, housing and employment forecasts were developed for the Town of Erin. Based on the forecast conducted as part of this GMS, it is expected that the Town will grow to 19,000 people, 6,490 units, and 5,200 jobs by 2041. It should be noted that this includes Town-wide populaƟon (i.e., beyond the Urban Centres). The projected residenƟal and non-residenƟal growth is further described by policy area (i.e., Community Lands and Employment Lands). The Built-up Areas (BUA) are anƟcipated to receive 20% of the Town's total housing growth, accounƟng for 457 units over the 2019 to 2041 forecast period. Urban Land Needs ExisƟng land supply within the designated growth areas is then compared with forecast demand to assess long-term needs. The urban land needs assessment idenƟﬁes that the Town has a suﬃcient supply of both Community Lands and Employment Lands to accommodate growth to the year 2041. Speciﬁcally, based on the forecast housing and employment growth within the Built Boundary, a total of 100 ha of residenƟal lands and 6 ha of non-residenƟal land are required between 2019 and 2041. Therefore, there is suﬃcient land supply within the designated growth areas to accommodate the 2041 demand. In addiƟon, there is suﬃcient capacity in the wastewater treatment plant to accommodate the 2041 demand. Growth Scenarios An evaluaƟon matrix was prepared to objecƟvely examine the development potenƟal of each potenƟal development area. The evaluaƟon framework idenƟﬁed in SecƟon 10 includes 23 criteria relevant to the assessment of future growth in the Town, which were informed by public input through the Community Growth Survey. AŌer examining the each of the potenƟal development areas based on the evaluaƟon Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 xv criteria, issues and opportuniƟes for future growth began to emerge. These can be summarized into the following key themes: · Land Use; · Natural Features; · TransportaƟon; · Wastewater Servicing; and · Water Servicing. Please refer to SecƟon 10 for further details for each of the potenƟal development areas within the BUA. Preferred Growth OpƟon The preferred growth scenario based on the evaluaƟon Framework is to prioriƟze future populaƟon growth in Area C, Area D in Erin Village and Area E in Hillsburgh (Figure 6). The preferred growth scenario provides suﬃcient land to accommodate the 2041 demand forecast and aligns with the recommended municipal ﬁnancing approach outlined in the Wastewater Financing OpƟons Study undertaken in 2019. The Town should monitor and review the phasing approach over Ɵme and if proposals are presented that ulƟmately require a variaƟon of the recommendaƟons contained herein, this should be reviewed in accordance with the evaluaƟon criteria set out through this document. Corresponding with these areas, it is assumed that the intensiﬁcaƟon areas will be developed within this planning horizon as well. These sites are considered to be within the BUA and are not restrained to meet any density requirements, but to achieve 20% of the Town's future residenƟal housing growth. This equates to approximately 457 units. At this Ɵme, growth allocaƟon for each area within the preferred scenario will be considered on a ﬁrst come, ﬁrst serve basis to 2041. This report recommends that a detailed phasing strategy and allocaƟon policy be developed by the Town reﬂecƟng the outcomes of the GMS, as well as other concurrent studies such as the Wastewater Financing OpƟons Study. Key Findings By 2041, Erin Village and Hillsburgh are forecast to reach a total populaƟon of 7,100 and 3,200 respecƟvely. Table 2 summarizes the preferred residenƟal growth allocaƟon scenario for the Town of Erin between Erin Village, Hillsburgh and the remaining rural area. Between the 2019 and 2041 forecast period, approximately 70% of urban populaƟon growth has been allocated to Erin Village, while the remaining 30% of urban populaƟon growth has been allocated to Hillsburgh. Please refer to SecƟon 7 of the report for further details. Erin Hillsburgh Wellington Road 52 Trafalgar Road Wellington Road 22 Main Street Tenth Line Sideroad 17 Sixth Line Shamrock Road Wellington Road 23 Sideroad 15 Fifth Line Wellington Road 124 Si deroad 24 Fourth Line Eighth Line S tation Street Sideroad 10 Sideroad 27 Dundas Street East Ninth Line Area C Area D Area E TOWN OF ERIN GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY PREFERRED GROWTH SCENARIO FIGURE 6 NORTH Scale 1:30,000 [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Limited Map Checked by: MM Dillon Consulting Limited October 10, 2019 Document Path: G:\GIS\199450 Erin Growth Management Strategy\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Exec Figure 6 - Preferred Growth Scenario - Copy.mxd LEGEND Base Mapping Built Boundary Urban Centre / Hamlet Municipal Boundary Defferal Area 2 Future Development Area Potential Wastewater Treatment Plant Site 0 500 1,000 250 Metres Land Supply Preferred Growth Option Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 xvii Table 2: Preferred Growth Allocation Scenario: Population & Housing Forecast by Settlement Area, 2019-2041 Period Erin Village Hillsburgh Rural Total Total Population 1 Total Households Total Population 1 Total Households Total Population 1 Total Households Total Population 1 Total Households 2016 3,100 1,200 1,400 500 7,400 2,500 11,900 4,100 2019 3,100 1,200 1,500 500 7,500 2,500 12,100 4,200 2031 4,500 1,700 2,000 700 7,800 2,700 14,300 5,100 2036 5,600 2,000 2,500 900 8,200 2,800 16,300 5,700 2041 7,100 2,500 3,200 1,100 8,600 2,900 18,900 6,500 2019-2041 4,000 1,300 1,700 600 1,100 400 6,800 2,300 Derived from Wellington County Official Plan (Revisions November 9, 2017) forecast for the Town of Erin by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2019 ¹ Includes Census undercount estimated at approximately 4.1%. Notes: "Rural" includes other non-serviced urban seƩlement areas. (i.e., rural areas); Numbers may not add due to rounding. Table 3 illustrates that there is suﬃcient capacity in the wastewater system to accommodate development beyond the 2041 forecast if the rate of development should exceed the forecast in determined through this GMS. Speciﬁcally, Table 3 demonstrates that the WWTP can accommodate for exisƟng units (2,273) and non-residenƟal growth (528), and service 3,939 new units within the total build-out capacity of the WWTP. Table 3: Summary of Wastewater Capacity UCWS EA Capacity1 Total Build-out Capacity (UCWS EA) 6,740 Total Single Family Units (2019) 2,273 Non-residenƟal Growth 2019-Build-out 528 Capacity for Growth 3,939 RecommendaƟons and Next Steps The following policy direcƟons are recommended to implement the outcomes of the Town's Growth Management Strategy. 1. Update the residenƟal growth policies in the OP. 2. Update the Growth Strategy policies contained in the OP. 3. Strengthen policies related to monitoring and review of growth within the Town. 1 Refer to the Urban Centre Wastewater Servicing EA and Wastewater Financing Options Study for further detail. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 xviii 4. Delineate the Built Boundary and establish policies promoƟng intensiﬁcaƟon within the Built Boundary. 5. Update policies related to servicing in the Urban Centres based on the outcomes of servicing studies completed. 6. Strengthen policies related to the requirement of municipal servicing. 7. Introduce phasing policies and/or a Phasing Plan. 8. Strengthen language regarding eﬃciency of development. 9. Resolve Deferral Area 2. 10. Update guidance on Planning Act applicaƟon submission requirements. 11. Develop a "deﬁniƟons" secƟon of the Town of Erin Oﬃcial Plan to provide clarity on the applicaƟon of terms. 12. Consider the development of Community Design and/or Streetscape Guidelines. 13. Consider the development of architectural guidelines and/or architectural control. 14. Conduct an Oﬃcial Plan Review to address Provincial and County policy conformity. Further details are provided in SecƟon 12 of the report. As a result of this growth management planning process, as well as the related studies led by the Town, an OPA should be iniƟated by the Town to align the OP with the outcomes idenƟﬁed through these studies. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 1 1.0 Introduction The Town of Erin's (the Town) ability to accommodate growth has been limited for some Ɵme, largely due to infrastructure capacity constraints. The Town has undertaken several iniƟaƟves to address the infrastructure challenges over the last few years, for example, the Class Environmental Assessment (EA) for a new municipal wastewater treatment plant and new municipal water supply. These infrastructure investments will support exisƟng development and growth in the Town's Urban Centres. We understand that there are several other iniƟaƟves currently being undertaken by the Town that need to be considered when reviewing how and where the Town should grow. The Growth Management Strategy (GMS) relies on the infrastructure plans established through the EAs previously and currently being undertaken by the Town, and outlines a high level phasing strategy for growth within the two Urban Centres (Hillsburgh and Erin). The Town's current supply of designated residenƟal land in Erin and Hillsburgh exceeds demand to 2041; therefore, the GMS must provide guidance on where to direct growth within the 2041 planning horizon. This study takes into consideraƟon land use planning, infrastructure planning and market demand factors. The GMS ulƟmately provides a recommended framework for growth to 2041 that is aligned with the Urban Centre Wastewater Servicing Class EA (UCWS EA). The study area for this GMS includes the Urban Centres of the Town, Hillsburgh and Erin (See Figure 1). Speciﬁcally, the GMS looked at vacant lands designated for residenƟal and/or employment uses within the Built Boundary, and outside of the Built Boundary but within the Urban Centres, to consider where to allocate growth. It should be noted that a seƩlement boundary expansion was not considered as part of this study, as there is suﬃcient land supply within the Urban Centres to accommodate growth forecasted to 2041 and beyond. The GMS followed a structured process where growth forecasts were reviewed and updated based on the Town's current iniƟaƟves including the UCWS EA, the Development Charges By-law, and the Wastewater Financing OpƟons Study. Lands were idenƟﬁed for potenƟal future development and assessed for development feasibility and infrastructure requirements. Based on this analysis, a preferred growth scenario emerged to guide future growth to 2041. Erin Hillsburgh Wellington Road 52 Trafalgar Road Wellington Road 22 Main Street Tenth Line Sideroad 17 Sixth Line Shamrock Road Wellington Road 23 Sideroad 15 Fifth Line Wellington Road 124 Si deroad 24 Fourth Line Eighth Line S tation Street Sideroad 10 Sideroad 27 Dundas Street East Ninth Line TOWN OF ERIN GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY STUDY AREA FIGURE 1 NORTH Scale 1:30,000 [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Limited Map Checked by: MM Dillon Consulting Limited October 10, 2019 Document Path: G:\GIS\199450 Erin Growth Management Strategy\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Figure 1 - Study Area.mxd LEGEND Base Mapping Built Boundary Urban Centre / Hamlet Municipal Boundary Defferal Area 2 Study Area Potential Wastewater Treatment Plant Site 0 500 1,000 250 Metres Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 3 1.1 Report Organization The report is structured to document the GMS project process including the policy framework which regulates growth allocaƟon and density, idenƟﬁcaƟon of the current land supply, an analysis of demand (populaƟon, housing and jobs) to 2041, and infrastructure capacity in the Town. This analysis was used to determine the preferred soluƟon to accommodate growth in the Town. Table 1 provides an overview of how the report is organized. Table 1: Report Organization Report Layout DescripƟon Report SecƟon Growth Management Strategy Project Process This secƟon describes the Growth Management Strategy process and outlines the steps taken during this project to determine where growth should occur to 2041. SecƟon 1.0 and 2.0 Policy Framework This secƟon outlines the provincial, county and municipal policies which impact growth management in Erin. SecƟon 3.0 Urban Land Supply The Town's current land supply is idenƟﬁed and categorized as Community Lands or employment lands in this secƟon. SecƟon 4.0 ExisƟng CondiƟons The exisƟng condiƟons secƟon of the report summarizes the current characterisƟcs and infrastructure capacity in Erin. SecƟon 5.0 Economic Overview and Trends This secƟon provides a summary of Regional and local economic trends, including labour force and populaƟon trends. SecƟon 6.0 PopulaƟon, Household and Employment Growth This secƟon examines the key drivers behind growth in the GTHA and Erin. SecƟon 7.0 PopulaƟon and Employment Forecasts This secƟon covers the anƟcipated populaƟon growth to 2041. SecƟon 8.0 Urban Land Needs This secƟon idenƟﬁes how much land is available to accommodate forecasted residenƟal and employment growth. SecƟon 9.0 Growth AllocaƟon Scenarios Available lands for future residenƟal and employment growth are assessed and prioriƟzed based on factors including development feasibility and infrastructure costs. SecƟon 10.0 Preferred Growth Scenario and Phasing This secƟon describes the preferred opƟon to accommodate growth to 2041. SecƟon 11.0 Oﬃcial Plan Policy DirecƟons and Next Steps This secƟon presents recommended updates to the Town's Oﬃcial Plan, based on the ﬁndings of the Growth Management Strategy. SecƟon 12.0 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 4 2.0 Growth Management Strategy Process The Growth Management Strategy focused on providing the Town with a defensible, supported and comprehensive vision for growth. The goal was to answer two key quesƟons: 1. How do we want to grow? and, 2. Where do we want to grow? Building on the background demographic work undertaken as part of OPA 99, a PopulaƟon, Housing and Employment Growth forecast was established to provide a baseline understanding of the amount of demand anƟcipated to 2041. The second component of the project was focused on land supply. This process included the idenƟﬁcaƟon of lands available to accommodate growth, evaluaƟon framework to evaluate each of the areas, and the recommendaƟon of a preferred soluƟon to accommodate future growth. Throughout the process, community and stakeholder input was used to conﬁrm approaches, and test potenƟal growth scenarios. 2.1 Community Input 2.1.1 Overview of ConsultaƟon AcƟviƟes Community members and stakeholders contributed valuable input at key decisions points in the process by providing context and background from diﬀerent perspecƟves. This helped to idenƟfy issues and opportuniƟes associated with potenƟal growth areas in the Town of Erin. It also provided informaƟon used to inform the evaluaƟon criteria. To complement and support the development of the GMS, a high-level engagement strategy was created. Community engagement was achieved through an online Community Growth Survey, stakeholder meeƟngs, Technical Advisory Group and Steering CommiƩee meeƟngs (including public members), social media posts (Facebook, TwiƩer, and Instagram), Erin ConnecƟon newsleƩers, an adverƟsement in the Erin Advocate, and through the Town of Erin's website. GMS Project Overview 1. Provincial, County and Municipal Background Review 2. Community Growth Survey 3. EvaluaƟon Framework 4. Growth Scenarios 5. Preferred Growth Scenario and Phasing 6. Policy Guidance 7. Council MeeƟng 8. Final Growth Management Strategy Report Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 5 Community Growth Survey 2.1.1.1 The Community Growth Survey was designed to idenƟfy issues and opportuniƟes associated with future growth, as well as to prioriƟze growth areas between Hillsburgh and Erin. The survey was launched on May 20, 2019 and closed on June 21, 2019. The survey was adverƟsed through a link on the Town's website, through the Erin Advocate, and sent to the business community through the Economic Developers email subscripƟon. In addiƟon, Town staﬀ aƩended the RibFest on June 8, 2019 and had a tablet available for residents to complete the survey. Hard copies of the survey were available at RibFest and throughout the survey period at Town Hall. The Community Growth Survey received 284 responses. Overall, respondents were generally neutral or happy about future growth prospects in the Town of Erin. Erin Village was slightly favoured for future residenƟal and employment growth over Hillsburgh. Respondents indicated that they would prefer residenƟal growth to be focused on redevelopment of exisƟng and small vacant sites. For employment growth, respondents indicated that they would prefer to see this focused to downtown main streets and business parks. When asked about what they want Erin to be known for in 2041, respondents emphasized a Vibrant Small Town. The survey data collected is aƩached in Appendix A. Steering CommiƩee and Technical Advisory Group MeeƟngs 2.1.1.2 The purpose of the Steering CommiƩee and the Technical Advisory Group was to provide the project team with input at key points in the process of developing the GMS for the Town. The Steering CommiƩee and Technical Advisory Group provided input on the draŌ evaluaƟon criteria, as well as the preferred growth scenario and draŌ policy guidelines. Two joint Steering CommiƩee and Technical Advisory Group meeƟngs were held. The ﬁrst meeƟng was to review the potenƟal development areas and the draŌ evaluaƟon criteria proposed to evaluate these potenƟal areas. A presentaƟon summarized the work completed to-date and a group discussion followed. The second meeƟng was focused on the preliminary preferred growth scenario and draŌ Oﬃcial Plan policy guidance. The presentaƟon provided a status update on the project and idenƟﬁed results of the analysis undertaken that led to a preliminary preferred scenario. The group discussed the interrelaƟonship between the GMS and other related studies such as the Wastewater Financing OpƟons Study and the need for an integrated approach to guide growth. 2.2 Summary The input received through the iniƟal community and stakeholder engagement was used to inform the evaluaƟon framework. In the Community Growth Survey, respondents indicated addiƟonal evaluaƟon criteria, for example ensuring the accommodaƟon of seniors housing, daycare availability and idenƟfying phasing of infrastructure projects. Council, the Steering CommiƩee and the Technical Advisory Group provided a local lens in discussing the potenƟal growth areas and the evaluaƟon criteria. Input and guidance was also received on the preliminary preferred growth scenario. ParƟcipants oﬀered meaningful feedback on the draŌ Oﬃcial Plan policy direcƟons, as well as insight into messaging and engagement as part of a future Oﬃcial Plan Amendment and/or Oﬃcial Plan Review process. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 6 3.0 Policy Framework Growth management in Ontario is governed by a number of provincial policy documents. The following secƟons summarize the relevant policies that guide growth management in the Town of Erin, including provincial, county and local plans. 3.1 Provincial Policy 3.1.1 Provincial Policy Statement (ϤϢϣϦ) The Provincial Policy Statement (PPS) came into eﬀect on April 30, 20142 and provides policy direcƟon on maƩers of provincial interest related to land use planning and development. The PPS is issued under SecƟon 3 of the Planning Act. Land use planning decisions made by municipaliƟes must be consistent with the PPS. The PPS encourages growth to be directed within urban and rural seƩlement areas. A planning authority may idenƟfy a seƩlement area or allow the expansion of a seƩlement area boundary and when it can be demonstrated that suﬃcient opportuniƟes for growth area not available through exisƟng growth areas to accommodate the projected needs over the planning horizon. In conjuncƟon, suitable services need to be planned or available to accommodate the new growth. SecƟon 1.3.2.1 of the PPS requires that planning authoriƟes provide land uses and infrastructure to meet the long-term employment needs of its projected populaƟon. The PPS requires that suﬃcient land be made available to accommodate an appropriate range and mix of land uses to meet project needs. Within seƩlement areas, suﬃcient land shall be made available through intensiﬁcaƟon and redevelopment and, if necessary, designated growth areas (DGA) (SecƟon 1.1.2). The PPS states that lands must be developed such that the development eﬃciently uses land and resources, is appropriate for and eﬃciently uses infrastructure and public service faciliƟes, minimizes negaƟve impacts to air quality and climate change, promotes energy eﬃciency, and supports acƟve transportaƟon, transit and freight (SecƟon 1.1.3.2). New developments taking place in DGA should occur adjacent to exisƟng BUA and shall have a compact form, mix of uses and densiƟes that allow for the eﬃcient use of land, infrastructure and public service faciliƟes (SecƟon 1.1.3.6). Planning authoriƟes must also establish phasing policies to ensure speciﬁc targets for intensiﬁcaƟon and redevelopment are achieved prior to, or concurrent with, new development within DGA, and the orderly progression of 2 In July 2019, the Province released proposed amendments to the Provincial Policy Statement to reflect other recent changes including those of the approved Growth Plan, 2019. The proposed changes are open to public comment until October 21, 2019. This report is based on the in force and effect PPS (2014). Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 7 development within DGA and the Ɵmely provision of the infrastructure and public service faciliƟes required to meet current and projected needs (SecƟon 1.1.3.7). Planning authoriƟes shall maintain the ability to accommodate residenƟal growth for a minimum of 10 years through residenƟal intensiﬁcaƟon and redevelopment, and if necessary, lands which are designated and available for residenƟal development. The planning authoriƟes need to provide lands with suﬃcient servicing capacity to provide at least a three-year supply of residenƟal units (SecƟon 1.4). The PPS also outlines planning for infrastructure, speciﬁcally, that growth should be directed in a manner which promote the eﬃcient use and opƟmizaƟon of municipal sewage services and municipal water services (SecƟon 1.6.6.1). TransportaƟon systems should be provided which are safe, energy eﬃcient, facilitate the movement of people and goods, and are appropriate to address projected needs (SecƟon 1.6.7.1). 3.1.2 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (ϤϢϣϫ) The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (the Growth Plan), approved under SecƟon 7 of the Places to Grow Act, 2005 took eﬀect on May 16, 2019. The Growth Plan builds on the policy foundaƟon set by the PPS 2014 and is intended to promote the eﬀecƟve use of land for future generaƟons. The horizon of the Growth Plan is to 2041. The Growth Plan encourages future growth to be directed to serviced areas to create compact and complete communiƟes which protect agricultural and water resources for future generaƟons. The Growth Plan provides populaƟon and employment forecasts for all upper and single-Ɵer municipaliƟes in the Greater Golden Horseshoe. Table 2 shows the projected populaƟon and employment for the County of Wellington. Table 2: Growth Plan Population and Employment Projections Growth Plan PopulaƟon Employment 2031 2036 2041 2031 2036 2041 County of Wellington 122,000 132,000 140,000 54,000 57,000 61,000 To achieve the Growth Plan targets, minimum intensiﬁcaƟon and Greenﬁeld density targets have been established for areas within the Growth Plan. The County of Wellington is mandated to achieve a minimum Greenﬁeld density of 40 residents and jobs combined per hectare within the horizon of the Growth Plan. For reference, this is consistent with the County's target established through the previous version of the Growth Plan (2017). The intensiﬁcaƟon target is to be established through the next municipal comprehensive review based on maintaining or improving upon the minimum intensiﬁcaƟon target contained in the applicable upper- or single-Ɵer oﬃcial plan. UnƟl the next municipal comprehensive review is approved and in eﬀect, the annual minimum intensiﬁcaƟon target contained in the applicable oﬃcial plan that is approved and in eﬀect as of July 1, 2017 will conƟnue to apply (SecƟon 2.2.2.2). Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 8 During the preparaƟon of this GMS, the Province of Ontario passed Bill 108, the More Homes, More Choice Act which received Royal Assent on June 6, 2019. The Bill amends 13 legislaƟve acts, including the Planning Act. The changes made through Bill 108, the More Homes, More Choice Act do not result in any material change to the growth management approach for Erin. 3.2 County of Wellington Official Plan County of Wellington Oﬃcial Plan (County OP), which came into eﬀect in May 1999, provides direcƟon regarding growth and development across the County. All land use and servicing decisions made by member municipaliƟes, including the Town of Erin, must conform to the policies of the County's OP. The County OP generally directs growth to Urban Centres, speciﬁcally, those which oﬀer municipal water and sewage. In an eﬀort to conserve prime agricultural areas, growth could also be directed to secondary agricultural areas. The County OP sets targets for new development, including residenƟal intensiﬁcaƟon, Greenﬁeld development and aﬀordable housing. SecƟon 3.3.1 of the County OP sets out intensiﬁcaƟon targets. By the year 2015 and for each year thereaŌer, a minimum of 20 percent of all residenƟal development occurring annually will be within a BUA. The designated Greenﬁeld area will be planned to achieve an overall minimum density of not less than 40 residents and jobs per hectare. The County OP also projects populaƟon to 2041. Table 3 shows the projected populaƟon for the County. The percentage of populaƟon in Urban Centres is projected to increase by approximately 10%. Table 3: County of Wellington Population and Household Projections 2016 2031 2036 2041 Total PopulaƟon 95,805 122,000 132,000 140,000 % of PopulaƟon in Urban Centres 51% 59% 61% 62% Households 32,960 42,290 45,750 48,740 Total Employment 40,070 54,000 57,000 61,000 The populaƟon forecasts for the Town of Erin are outlined in the County's OP. PopulaƟon and household growth forecasts for Hillsburgh and Erin Urban Centres were combined as addiƟonal analysis was needed to allocate growth between the two Urban Centres. A range was provided in the County's OP due to the uncertainty in land supply based on infrastructure constraints. Table 4 and Table 5 provide a summary of the populaƟon, household and employment forecast outlined in the County's OP. Table 4: Distribution of Population in the Town of Erin Wellington Oﬃcial Plan PopulaƟon Households 2016 2036 2041 2016 2036 2041 Town of Erin 12,365 15,360 to 16,250 15,865 to 18,905 4,115 5,185 to 5,480 5,385 to 6,340 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 9 Wellington Oﬃcial Plan PopulaƟon Households 2016 2036 2041 2016 2036 2041 Hillsburgh and Erin 4,415 6,500 to 7,390 7,000 to 10,040 1,530 2,235 to 2,530 2,420 to 3,375 Outside of Urban Centres 7,950 8,860 8,865 2,585 2,950 2,965 Table 5: Employment Projections in the Town of Erin Wellington Oﬃcial Plan Employment 2016 2036 2041 Total Employment 3,770 5,220 5,240 3.2.1 Oﬃcial Plan Amendment No. ϫϫ The Ontario Municipal Board oversaw an appeal on the County of Wellington OP under SecƟon 17 of the Planning Act. The Revised Minutes of SeƩlement are dated May 2017. OPA 99 speaks to two main issues relaƟng to the phasing of future growth in Hillsburgh and Erin. It states that two Class EA processes will be completed to determine municipal water and wastewater service capacity. Following the compleƟon of these Class EA's, the Town's Oﬃcial Plan growth management policies will need to be amended to reﬂect the results of the Class EA process and include appropriate Ɵming, phasing, servicing, locaƟon and ﬁnancing of future growth. The Appeal also included updates to Tables 1 and 7 and Policy 3.5.1 of the County's Oﬃcial Plan (See Appendix B). 3.3 Town of Erin Official Plan The Town of Erin Oﬃcial Plan (Erin OP) was adopted by Wellington County Council in December 2004; however, the current version contains ModiﬁcaƟon and ApplicaƟons to May 2012. The purpose of the Erin OP is to provide local land use policies for future growth and development. The Erin OP sets out the major land use designaƟons applicable to the Town, including the Urban and Rural Areas. Table 6 provides a summary of the populaƟon, household and employment forecasts to 2031, as referenced in the Town's OP. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 10 Table 6: Town of Erin Official Plan Population, Household and Employment Forecasts Years 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Town of Erin Total PopulaƟon 11,680 11,930 12,490 13,510 14,530 15,530 Households 3,810 3,960 4,160 4,510 4,850 5,180 Total Employment 3,550 3,590 3,780 4,600 5,020 5,460 Erin Village Total PopulaƟon 3,020 3,000 3,100 3,540 3,980 4,400 Households 1,030 1,050 1,090 1,240 1,390 1,530 Hillsburgh Total PopulaƟon 1,240 1,280 1,380 1,610 1,850 2,080 Households 410 430 460 540 610 690 The Erin OP designates land through three major land-use areas: the Greenlands system, the Rural system and the Urban system. The rest of the Town is made up of Greenlands and Rural system land use designaƟons. The focus of this study is on the Urban Centres of Hillsburgh and Erin. Within both Urban Centres, the Erin OP designates land based on the following land use categories: · ResidenƟal; · Future Development; · Central Business District; · Highway Commercial; · ResidenƟal TransiƟon; · Industrial; · Core Greenlands; · Greenlands; and · RecreaƟonal. Figure 2 and Figure 3 illustrate the applicable land use designaƟons, Built Boundary and Urban Centre boundaries in Erin and Hillsburgh, respecƟvely. Def. #2 SPA1 SPA6 Tenth Line Wellington Road 52 Sideroad 17 Wellington Road 124 Wellington Road 23 Wellington Road 22 Sideroad 15 Ninth Line Winston Churchill Boulevard Sixth Line Sideroad 10 Trafalgar Road Dundas Street East Eighth Line Main Street The Greenlands System Core Greenland Greenland TOWN OF ERIN GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY OFFICIAL PLAN LAND USE - ERIN VILLAGE FIGURE 2 NORTH Scale 1:25,000 0 500 1,000 250 Metres [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Limited Map Checked by: MM Dillon Consulting Limited October 10, 2019 Official Plan Land Use Residential Country Residential Residential Transition Secondary Agricultural Hamlet Industrial Central Business District Highway Commercial Recreational Future Development Defferal Area 2 Policy Area LEGEND Base Mapping County Road Other Road Parcel Built Boundary Urban Centre / Hamlet Municipal Boundary Document Path: G:\GIS\199450 Erin Growth Management Strategy\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Figure 2 - Official Plan Land Use - Erin Village.mxd Potential Wastewater Treatment Plant Site PA2-2 PA2-3 Hilltop Road Trafalgar Road Sixth Line Fifth Line Wellington Road 22 Sideroad 27 Eighth Line Ninth Line Sideroad 24 Station Street TOWN OF ERIN GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY OFFICIAL PLAN LAND USE - HILLSBURGH FIGURE 3 NORTH Scale 1:15,000 0 500 1,000 250 Metres [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Limited Map Checked by: MM Dillon Consulting Limited October 09, 2019 Document Path: G:\GIS\199450 Erin Growth Management Strategy\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Figure 3 - Official Plan Land Use - Hillsburgh.mxd LEGEND The Greenlands System Core Greenland Greenland Official Plan Land Use Residential Residential Transition Secondary Agricultural Hamlet Industrial Central Business District Highway Commercial Recreational Future Development Policy Area Base Mapping County Road Other Road Proposed Minor Collector Parcel Built Boundary Urban Centre / Hamlet Municipal Boundary Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 13 Within each of the Urban Centres, the Town has established a Built Boundary. The Built Boundary is deﬁned by the province as the limits of the developed urban area deﬁned by the Minister in consultaƟon with aﬀected municipaliƟes for the purpose of measuring the minimum intensiﬁcaƟon target. However, some lands designated for Future Development are also included within the Built Boundary. Lands outside of the Built Boundary, but within the Urban Centre are described as Greenﬁeld lands intended to accommodate future growth. Future development refers to areas within the Town, where it is not possible to predesignate for future intended uses. Such lands may not be required over the planning period for development purposes or the speciﬁc nature of the intended land uses is not known at this Ɵme (OP SecƟon 4.13). For the purposes of this GMS, land designated as Future Development has been excluded from the analysis. In accordance with SecƟon 3.5.2 of the OP, the Town shall maintain at all Ɵmes, the ability to accommodate residenƟal growth for a minimum of 10 years through residenƟal intensiﬁcaƟon and redevelopment. The Town also states that they will maintain at all Ɵmes where new development is to occur, land with servicing capacity suﬃcient to provide at least a three year supply of residenƟal units available through lands suitably zoned to facilitate residenƟal intensiﬁcaƟon and redevelopment, and land in draŌ approved and registered plans. Growth in the Town was previously constrained and put on hold unƟl the compleƟon of a Servicing and SeƩlement Master Plan and subsequent EA. This process is described in more detail below. 3.3.1 Wastewater Treatment Class Environmental Assessment In 2006, a Wastewater EA was mandated by the Town and growth in Erin was put on hold. The ﬁrst phase of the EA began in 2009 and was completed by R.M. Ross and Associates in 2014. This is referred to as the Servicing and SeƩlement Master Plan (see SecƟon 3.3.1.1). The second phase of the EA was completed by Ainley Group (Ainley) in 2018, which is referred to as the Urban Centre Wastewater Servicing Class EA (UCWS EA) and described below in SecƟon 3.3.1.2. Servicing and SeƩlement Master Plan 3.3.1.1 The Servicing and SeƩlement Master Plan was required in order to assess the capacity to accommodate growth from a servicing perspecƟve. It deﬁnes a preferred strategy for providing water supply and sanitary sewage faciliƟes for exisƟng and future development in Hillsburgh and Erin, and assesses stormwater and transportaƟon infrastructure policy implicaƟons. It also provided the foundaƟon for the Class EA process for the Wastewater Treatment Plant. Wastewater Treatment Plant Environmental Assessment 3.3.1.2 The UCWS EA was completed for the wastewater servicing of Erin and Hillsburgh by Ainley. The noƟce of compleƟon issued on May 3, 2018. A link to addiƟonal informaƟon is provided here: hƩp://www.erin.ca/town-hall/wastewater-ea. In August 2019, the Ministry of Environment, ConservaƟon and Parks (MECP) denied three (3) Part II Orders that were ﬁled following the formal public review period of the EA process. With the denial of the Part II Orders, the Town can proceed with Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 14 the design and construcƟon of the wastewater infrastructure idenƟﬁed within the Environmental Study Report (ESR). The consultant (Ainley) is currently in the process of updaƟng the ESR to include the correspondence associated with the Part II Orders and expects to complete the ﬁnal ESR in October 2019. This represents an important milestone in the process of proacƟvely planning for future growth and development in Erin, allowing the Town to move forward with the next steps in construcƟon of a wastewater treatment plant. Two potenƟal locaƟons for the wastewater treatment plant were idenƟﬁed on the southeast side of Erin, which will have an impact on future growth scenarios due to construcƟon of infrastructure. The ﬁnal site selecƟon is dependent on Ɵming and will be made in conjuncƟon with the wastewater treatment plant project moving forward. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 15 4.0 Urban Land Supply The Urban Land supply analysis for this GMS is focused on the lands within the Urban Centres of Hillsburgh and Erin. The land use designaƟons from the May 2012 Town Oﬃcial Plan were used to idenƟfy three categories to support the growth management analysis; Community Area, Employment Area and Other Land Use. 4.1 Methodology To idenƟfy the supply of available land to accommodate future growth in the Town of Erin, lands were reviewed based on land use designaƟon and status (i.e., developed and vacant). Lands designated for residenƟal and employment uses within the Urban Centre were included in the land supply analysis. Vacant, designated areas within the Built Boundary were considered as potenƟal IntensiﬁcaƟon Areas and vacant, designated areas beyond the Built Boundary but within the Urban Centres were considered as Greenﬁeld Areas. The land area calculaƟons remove (net out) lands that prohibit development, such as natural heritage features, infrastructure corridors, etc. The potenƟal developable area includes lands with no constraint to development from a land use designaƟon perspecƟve, as well as lands subject to an Environmental Impact Study (EIS) including potenƟal buﬀers from environmental features as well as ConservaƟon Authority Regulated Areas. These areas would be further evaluated and conﬁrmed through a future EIS process. Developed parcels were removed unless considered appropriate for intensiﬁcaƟon or redevelopment. Parcels less than 1 ha in area were also removed as these do not represent signiﬁcant contribuƟon to the land supply. 4.2 Potential Development Areas Community Areas are made up of ResidenƟal and ResidenƟal TransiƟon land use designaƟons. Employment Areas are made up of Central Business District, Highway Commercial and Industrial land uses. The Other Land Use category captures the remaining land uses - Core Greenlands, Greenlands, RecreaƟonal and Future Development land use designaƟons. In Erin Village, there are four Greenﬁeld areas which are located outside of the Built Boundary and are included as part of this analysis. In Hillsburgh, there are four Greenﬁeld areas which are located outside of the Built Boundary; however, one area was removed from the analysis as it is not currently designated for residenƟal or employment uses. Figure 4 illustrates the land supply in both Hillsburgh and Erin. Erin Hillsburgh Wellington Road 52 Trafalgar Road Wellington Road 22 Main Street Tenth Line Sideroad 17 Sixth Line Shamrock Road Wellington Road 23 Sideroad 15 Fifth Line Wellington Road 124 Si deroad 24 Fourth Line Eighth Line S tation Street Sideroad 10 Sideroad 27 Dundas Street East Ninth Line Area C Intensification Area B Area A Intensification Area C Intensification Area A Area D Area G Area H Area F Intensification Area D Area E Area B TOWN OF ERIN GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY LAND SUPPLY - ERIN AND HILLSBURGH FIGURE 4 NORTH Scale 1:30,000 [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Limited Map Checked by: MM Dillon Consulting Limited October 10, 2019 Document Path: G:\GIS\199450 Erin Growth Management Strategy\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Figure 4 - Land Supply - Erin and Hillsburgh.mxd LEGEND Base Mapping Built Boundary Urban Centre / Hamlet Municipal Boundary Potential Development Area Defferal Area Area 2 Future Development Area Potential Wastewater Treatment Plant Site 0 500 1,000 250 Metres Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 17 4.3 Designated Community Lands The designated Community Lands in Erin Village and Hillsburgh are shown in Table 7 below. There is a total of 118 ha of land available for Greenﬁeld development in Erin and 102 ha of Greenﬁeld land in Hillsburgh. Of the designated Community Lands, 57% of all available land is available in Erin and 43% is available in Hillsburgh. The majority of community lands available for future development in the Town are located in the Greenﬁeld areas (220 ha outside of the Built Boundary within the Urban Centre). Approximately 29 ha of community land have been idenƟﬁed for intensiﬁcaƟon within the Built Boundary. Table 7: Community Land Supply as of 2019 by Settlement Geographic LocaƟon Available Lands (ha) Available Lands (%) Erin 141 57% Greenﬁeld 118 47% IntensiﬁcaƟon 23 9% Hillsburgh 108 43% Greenﬁeld 102 41% IntensiﬁcaƟon 6 2% Total 249 100% Note: An Environmental Impact Statement required as part of a future development applicaƟon will conﬁrm the area available for development. 4.4 Designated Employment Lands Table 8 shows the vacant designated employment land area broken out by Urban Centre. Erin has the majority of the available employment lands with approximately 40 gross ha. Hillsburgh has 8 gross ha of vacant, designated employment lands. Table 8: Employment Land Supply as of 2019 by Settlement Geographic LocaƟon Available Lands (ha) Available Lands (%) Erin 40 83% Greenﬁeld 25 52% IntensiﬁcaƟon 15 32% Hillsburgh 8 17% Greenﬁeld 8 17% IntensiﬁcaƟon 0 0% Total 48 100% Note: An Environmental Impact Statement required as part of a future development applicaƟon will conﬁrm the area available for development. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 18 4.5 Summary There are 249 gross ha of designated residenƟal land within Erin and Hillsburgh (of which 29 gross ha are within the Built Boundary and the remaining 220 ha are Greenﬁeld areas). The available Greenﬁeld residenƟal land is distributed fairly evenly between Erin and Hillsburgh, with slightly more Greenﬁeld land available in Erin. There is just over 48 gross ha of designated employment lands in Erin and Hillsburgh. The majority of the employment lands are located in Erin. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 19 5.0 Existing Conditions 5.1 Land Use 5.1.1 ExisƟng Land Use - Hillsburgh Hillsburgh is made up of primarily large single family residenƟal lots which create a rural estate feel within the community. The residenƟal units are generally set back from the street. The streets are lined with mature trees and many of the residenƟal streets do not have sidewalks, further reinforcing the small town character of the community. The main commercial area is located along Trafalgar Road near the intersecƟon of George Street. There is a mix of small commercial spaces with residenƟal units above along the east side of Trafalgar Road. On the west side of the road, there are neighbourhood commercial uses, including a grocery store, liquor store and beer store. Outside of the Built Boundary, Hillsburgh is surrounded by sprawling farmﬁelds with acƟve agricultural uses. There is very liƩle development outside of Hillsburgh, except for individual farm houses. The Elora- Cataract Trailway intersects Trafalgar Road south of downtown, and connects Hillsburgh to Erin Village to the south. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 20 5.1.3 ExisƟng Land Use - Erin Similar to Hillsburgh, development in Erin Village is dominated by single family residenƟal units. The residenƟal units in Erin Village are closer to the street than Hillsburgh; however, the streets contribute to the small town character as they are tree lined, limited sidewalks, and a low curb proﬁle. Erin Village has a bigger commercial area than Hillsburgh, with several blocks of Wellington Road having commercial properƟes fronƟng the street. Main Street has two travel lanes (one north and one south) with designated on-street parking on each side which creates a comfortable street environment. The western side of Main Street between Charles Street, north to the Valu-Mart is primarily a two-storey brick façade with commercial units on the ground ﬂoor. Independent retail shops are present along this corridor further contribuƟng to the character of Erin Village. Erin also has lands designated for industrial commercial acƟvity, north of the railroad track along County Rd 124. This area is home to manufacturing and storage faciliƟes which provide employment opportuniƟes for the community. Outside the Built Boundary, Erin is surrounded by sprawling farmland. Similar to Hillsburgh, there is very liƩle development outside of Erin Village, except individual farm houses. There are also acƟve gravel operaƟons nearby. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 21 5.2 Infrastructure Review Historically, the Town has struggled to accommodate new growth due to servicing constraints. In the Urban Centres there is an exisƟng municipal water source which some developments have accessed. It is the intenƟon of the Town to provide a municipal water service to all lands within the designated Urban Centres. Currently, there is no municipal sanitary sewage facility in the Town. All sanitary sewage treatment is by individual private systems. It has been recognized by the Town that in order to provide municipal sanitary servicing to the exisƟng Urban Centres and accommodate the growth forecasted by the County, it is necessary to construct a new wastewater treatment facility. The Town began the process for approving a new Wasterwater Treatment Plant with the support of Ainley for the EA (see SecƟon 5.3.1.2). This EA, along with supplemental informaƟon (e.g., ﬁnal servicing analysis) provided by Ainley, form the basis upon which the evaluaƟon of the wastewater servicing opƟons for the potenƟal development areas was derived. To provide clarity between the lands considered in both studies, Figure 5 shows the Development Areas used as part of the Wastewater EA, and the study areas deﬁned through the GMS analysis. 5.3 Water and Wastewater Servicing The communiƟes of Erin and Hillsburgh are serviced using a combinaƟon of public and private infrastructure for potable water and wastewater discharge. Some properƟes have public potable water, whereas others are serviced by private wells or cisterns. As menƟoned previously, there is no public infrastructure for wastewater; therefore, properƟes are primarily serviced with private sepƟc systems or holding tanks. 5.3.1 Wastewater Servicing ExisƟng Wastewater CondiƟons 5.3.1.1 ExisƟng wastewater servicing in both Erin and Hillsburgh is exclusively managed through private wastewater systems. These systems are a combinaƟon of leaching ﬁelds/tanks and holding tanks. In some cases, the systems may have inadequate treatment processes prior to leaching which could cause ground water contaminaƟon. Erin Hillsburgh Wellington Road 52 Trafalgar Road Wellington Road 22 Main Street Tenth Line Sideroad 17 Sixth Line Shamrock Road Wellington Road 23 Sideroad 15 Fifth Line Wellington Road 124 Si deroad 24 Fourth Line Eighth Line S tation Street Sideroad 10 Sideroad 27 Dundas Street East Ninth Line Area 1 Area 4 Area 3 Area 2 Area 5 Area 6 Area 7 Area C Intensification Area B Area A Intensification Area C Intensification Area A Area D Area G Area H Area F Intensification Area D Area E Area B TOWN OF ERIN GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT AREA COMPARISON FIGURE 5 NORTH Scale 1:30,000 [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Limited Map Checked by: MM Dillon Consulting Limited October 10, 2019 Document Path: G:\GIS\199450 Erin Growth Management Strategy\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Figure 5 - Development Area Comparison.mxd LEGEND Base Mapping Built Boundary Urban Centres / Hamlets Municipal Boundary Land Supply GMS Potential Development Areas Wastewater Master Plan Development Areas Future Development Area Defferal Area 2 Potential Wastewater Treatment Plant Site 0 500 1,000 250 Meters Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 23 Proposed Wastewater Systems to Support Development 5.3.1.2 A wastewater EA was completed for the Town of Erin by Ainley, and was accepted in 2019. For further details on the proposed wastewater servicing details, refer to the Urban Centre Wastewater Servicing Class EA. The UCWS EA was undertaken to provide wastewater servicing for the Erin and Hillsburgh Urban Centres, including the connecƟon of exisƟng uses and the expansion of servicing to facilitate new development. The EA idenƟﬁed two possible locaƟons for the Town's wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and a basic infrastructure phasing plan that generally extends from south to north. The infrastructure plan was based on the need to facilitate new development, and may pick up exisƟng development as the services are extended. The development areas that were idenƟﬁed to extend wastewater servicing are illustrated on Figure 6. Ainley provided approximate costs and analysis based on the EA work conducted. As such, the costs and details presented in the EA may not directly match those included in this analysis. It is possible that these costs may be revised further as the process for the design of the future wastewater system progresses. The UCWS EA discreƟzed the proposed wastewater system into 4 segments. To service the potenƟal development areas in Erin, Segments 1 through 2 are required. To service the potenƟal development areas in Hillsburgh, Segments 1 through 4 are required. For informaƟon regarding the cost associated with the construcƟon of segments of wastewater servicing and the WWTP, refer to the UCWS EA and the Wastewater Financing OpƟons Study. During the detailed design of the sanitary connecƟons from each development to the proposed trunks, the designer must account for the sanitary catchments that ﬂow into the connecƟon rouƟng and size their pipes accordingly. The UCWS EA was relied upon to idenƟfy infrastructure requirements, costs and phasing for this assignment. The wastewater treatment capacity will need to be monitored to ensure suﬃcient capacity for all of the development areas idenƟﬁed within the UCWS EA. 5.3.2 Water Servicing PorƟons of both Erin and Hillsburgh are serviced by potable water provided by the Town. The system is supplied by a series of groundwater wells. Those not serviced by municipal water are serviced either by private wells or by cisterns. The exisƟng and proposed water service network is illustrated on Figure 7. ExisƟng Water CondiƟons 5.3.2.1 The municipal water systems are comprised primarily of pipes between 100mm and 250mm in diameters. Larger 600mm diameter pipes do exist adjacent to well locaƟons, and smaller pipes, 50mm in diameter are located on cul-de-sacs, which is common pracƟce. The pipe systems in comprised primarily of PVC pipe, with cast iron pipes, and ducƟle iron pipes in smaller quanƟƟes. One copper 50mm loop exists in the Aspen Court area of Erin. The system has a number of dead-end mains which likely require periodic ﬂushing. Erin Hillsburgh Wellington Road 52 Trafalgar Road Wellington Road 22 Main Street Tenth Line Sideroad 17 Sixth Line Shamrock Road Wellington Road 23 Sideroad 15 Fifth Line Wellington Road 124 Si deroad 24 Fourth Line Eighth Line S tation Street Sideroad 10 Sideroad 27 Dundas Street East Ninth Line Segment # 1 Segment # 4 Segment # 3 Segment # 2 Area C Intensification Area B Area A Intensification Area C Intensification Area A Area D Area G Area H Area F Intensification Area D Area E Area B T OWN OF ERIN GROWT H MANAGEMENT ST RAT EGY WASTEWATER SERVICING NETWORK - ERIN AND HILLSBURGH FIGURE 6 NORTH Scale 1:30,000 [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Lim ited Map Ch eck ed by: MM Dillon Consulting Lim ited October 10, 2019 Docum ent Path : G:\GIS\199450 Erin Grow th Manag em ent Strateg y\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Fig ure 6 - Wastew ater Servicing Netw ork - Erin and Hillsburg h .m xd LEGEND Base Mapping Built Boundary Urban Centre / Ham let Municipal Boundary Potential Developm ent Area Defferal Area 2 Future Developm ent Area Potential Wastew ater T reatm ent Plant Site 0 500 1,000 250 Metres Wastewater Servicing Forcem ain Gravity Sew er Seg m ent #1 Seg m ent #2 Seg m ent #3 Seg m ent #4 Erin Hillsburgh Wellington Road 52 Trafalgar Road Wellington Road 22 Main Street Tenth Line Sideroad 17 Sixth Line Shamrock Road Wellington Road 23 Sideroad 15 Fifth Line Wellington Road 124 Si deroad 24 Fourth Line Eighth Line S tation Street Sideroad 10 Sideroad 27 Dundas Street East Ninth Line Area C Intensification Area B Area A Intensification Area C Intensification Area A Area D Area G Area H Area F Intensification Area D Area E Area B TOWN OF ERIN GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY WATER SERVICING NETWORK - ERIN AND HILLSBURGH FIGURE 7 NORTH Scale 1:30,000 [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Limited Map Checked by: MM Dillon Consulting Limited October 10, 2019 Document Path: G:\GIS\199450 Erin Growth Management Strategy\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Figure 7 - Water Servicing Network - Erin and Hillsburgh.mxd LEGEND Base Mapping Built Boundary Urban Centre / Hamlet Municipal Boundary Potential Development Area Defferal Area 2 Future Development Area Potential Wastewater Treatment Plant Site 0 500 1,000 250 Metres Water Servicing Existing Water Servicing Conceptual Water Servicing Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 26 Proposed Water Systems to Support Development 5.3.2.2 The various potenƟal development areas will need to be connected to the municipal potable water system. The system as it stands is not able to provide a suﬃcient source of water for all the new potenƟal developments. As part of the water supply EA, the Town has been working to idenƟfy supplemental sources of water, including new wells and connecƟons to the exisƟng water distribuƟon network. These improvements would be required regardless of which areas are preferred to meet the growth projecƟon. For further details on the proposed water system, including associated cost esƟmates, refer to the Town's Water Supply EA. 5.4 Transportation 5.4.1 TransportaƟon ExisƟng CondiƟons The transportaƟon system for the Town is predominantly provided by the County road network. Alternate modes of transportaƟon, including cycling, transit and pedestrian infrastructure, is anƟcipated to become an increased focus for the Town as part of a long-term transportaƟon strategy to support growth. AcƟve transportaƟon was included as a criterion in the evaluaƟon undertaken. Since the vehicular use of the road network is the primary mode of transportaƟon in the Town of Erin, this network is the focus of the transportaƟon analysis outlined below. The County road network, mostly rural in nature, connects the Urban Centres (Hillsburgh and Erin) to the broader region, Guelph, Georgetown, Brampton and Orangeville. Township roads complete Erin's road network by providing connecƟons to and from communiƟes to the County road network. While Wellington County Road 22 and Sideroad 17 provide local connecƟvity between Erin and Hillsburgh, the most signiﬁcant roadways in terms of connecƟng Erin and Hillsburgh to the broader region are Wellington County Road 124 and Wellington County Road 24. This transportaƟon assessment focuses on the regional connecƟons. Figure 8 illustrates the exisƟng transportaƟon network in Erin and Hillsburgh. Erin Hillsburgh Wellington Road 52 Trafalgar Road Wellington Road 22 Main Street Tenth Line Sideroad 17 Sixth Line Shamrock Road Wellington Road 23 Sideroad 15 Fifth Line Wellington Road 124 Si deroad 24 Fourth Line Eighth Line S tation Street Sideroad 10 Sideroad 27 Dundas Street East Ninth Line Area C Intensification Area B Area A Intensification Area C Intensification Area A Area D Area G Area H Area F Intensification Area D Area E Area B TOWN OF ERIN GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY TRANSPORTATION NETWORK - ERIN AND HILLSBURGH FIGURE 8 NORTH Scale 1:30,000 [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Limited Map Checked by: MM Dillon Consulting Limited October 10, 2019 Document Path: G:\GIS\199450 Erin Growth Management Strategy\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Figure 8 - Transportation Network - Erin and Hillsburgh.mxd LEGEND Base Mapping Built Boundary Urban Centre / Hamlet Municipal Boundary Potential Development Area Defferal Area 2 Future Development Area Potential Wastewater Treatment Plant Site 0 500 1,000 250 Metres Transportation Network Road Considered in Transportation Study Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 28 ExisƟng CondiƟon - County Road ϣϤϦ (Erin) 5.4.1.1 Wellington County Road 124 is a two lane, predominantly an east-west, road classiﬁed as rural arterial road within the Town. It has a posted speed limit of 80 km/h outside of the Urban Centre of Erin limits which decreases to 50 km/h or 60 km/h on the approach into the community depending on direcƟon travelled (east and west, respecƟvely). Within the Urban Centre of Erin, County Road 124 is a north- south road that is also known as Main Street and has a posted speed limit of 40 km/h. On-street parking is available on both the east and west sides of Main Street from just south of Millwood Road to Church Boulevard and on the west side only from Church Boulevard to just north of English Street. Along this stretch, Main Street has four signalized intersecƟons (Shamrock Road, Dundas Street, Church Boulevard/East Church Street and Wellington Road 52/ Wellington Road 124) all of which have dedicated northbound and southbound leŌ turn lanes and the intersecƟons at Shamrock Road and Wellington Road 52/ Wellington Road 124 also have dedicated southbound right turn lanes. There are sidewalks on both sides of Main Street through Erin between Lorne Street and Wellington Road 52/ Wellington Road 124 with sidewalks on one side of the road for the remaining secƟons Main Street. There is also an uncontrolled acƟve transportaƟon crossing (the Elora-Cataract Trailway) on Main Street just north of Ross Street. It should be noted that prior to 1997, Wellington County Road 124 was Ontario Highway 24. Historically, Highway 24 was a provincial highway that connected the Town of Simcoe to the Town of Collingwood with connecƟons to many communiƟes (Branƞord, Cambridge, Guelph, Erin, Caledon, Orangeville and Shelburne) along the way. Today, Wellington County Road 124 serves a much more regional focus within Erin and adjacent townships; however, sƟll aƩracts longer distance trips and truck traﬃc. ExisƟng CondiƟons - County Road ϤϦ (Hillsburgh) 5.4.1.2 Wellington County Road 24 or Trafalgar Road is a two lane north-south road classiﬁed as a rural arterial road within the Town. It has a posted speed limit of 80 km/h outside of the Urban Centre of Hillsburgh which decreases to 60 km/h on the approach into the community from the north. Within the community of Hillsburgh, County Road 24,locally know as Main Street, has a posted speed limit of 40 km/h. On- street parking is available on both the east and west sides of County Road 24 between St Andrews Church (160m north of StaƟon Street) and just south of Upper Canada Drive/Church Street. County Road 24 has one signalized intersecƟon within Hillsburgh at Wellington Road 22. This intersecƟon has dedicated northbound and southbound leŌ turn lanes. There are formal sidewalks on both sides of County Road 24 through Hillsburgh between Upper Canada Drive/Church Street and Ross R. MacKay Public School (320 m north of Jane Street). The remainder of the road has a formal sidewalk on one side of the road and/or paved asphalt shoulders that funcƟon as sidewalks. There is also an uncontrolled acƟve transportaƟon crossing (the Elora-Cataract Trailway) on County Road 24, 110 m north of Jane Street. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 29 5.4.2 TransportaƟon Capacity Analysis Preliminary capacity analysis of the aforemenƟoned County Roads was conducted. The following secƟons summarize the exisƟng capacity analysis results. Capacity - County Road ϣϤϦ (Erin) 5.4.2.1 Table 9 presents the exisƟng capacity analysis for Wellington County Road 124 which travels through Erin village. Wellington County Road 124 is operaƟng well during the PM peak hour. The criƟcal secƟon of Wellington County Road 124 is located just south of Dundas Street. The volume to capacity raƟo for this secƟon of roadway (0.81) indicates a level of service D or approaching unstable traﬃc ﬂow condiƟons. This roadway has limited excess capacity should addiƟonal traﬃc need to be accommodated. Table 9: Wellington Road 124 - Existing Capacity Analysis LocaƟon Year Average Annual Daily Traﬃc Count Design Hour Volume DirecƟonal Split % Vehicle Capacity ExisƟng PM Peak Hour (Peak DirecƟon) Volume to Capacity West of Winston Churchill Boulevard 2018 7,068 14% 55% 900 550 0.61 South of Dundas Street 2018 9,392 14% 55% 900 730 0.81 West of Wellington Road 52 2017 8,768 14% 55% 900 680 0.76 Capacity - County Road ϤϦ (Hillsburgh) 5.4.2.2 Table 10 presents the exisƟng capacity analysis for Wellington County Road 24 which travels through Hillsburgh. Wellington County Road 24 is operaƟng well during the PM peak hour. The volume to capacity (v/C) raƟos (0.44 and 0.47) indicates a level of service C or stable traﬃc ﬂow condiƟons. This roadway has excess capacity should addiƟonal traﬃc need to be accommodated. Table 10: Wellington Road 24 - Existing Capacity Analysis LocaƟon Year Average Annual Daily Traﬃc Count Design Hour Volume DirecƟonal Split % Vehicle Capacity ExisƟng PM Peak Hour (Peak DirecƟon) Volume to Capacity South of Side Road 27 2016 5,092 14% 55% 900 400 0.44 North of Wellington Road 22 2019 6,817 n/a n/a 900 426 0.47 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 30 5.5 Natural Heritage In order to delineate the natural heritage features, a desktop Natural Heritage Assessment was conducted including the review of best available informaƟon from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF), the Credit Valley ConservaƟon Authority (CVC), and the Grand River ConservaƟon Authority (GRCA). The intent of this review was to determine areas where development would likely not occur due to environmental constraints. SecƟon 8.9 of the County's Oﬃcial Plan provides policy direcƟon regarding the Greenlands System, which includes features such as rivers, their adjacent ﬂood prone land and valley slopes. Also included in the Greenlands System are wetlands, signiﬁcant woodlands, smaller watercourses and other areas with physical constraints (e.g., poor drainage or steep slopes). Consistent with the County's Oﬃcial Plan, the Town Oﬃcial Plan includes policy direcƟon regarding Core Greenlands and Greenlands land use designaƟons. The Core Greenlands designaƟon includes provincially signiﬁcant and other wetlands; habitat of endangered or threatened species; and ﬂoodways and hazardous lands. The Greenlands designaƟon includes other signiﬁcant natural heritage features including but not limited to ﬁsh, wildlife and plant habitat, areas of natural and scienƟﬁc interest, streams and valleylands, woodlands, and other environmentally sensiƟve areas. No development is permiƩed in the Core Greenlands designaƟon. Some development is permiƩed to occur within the Greenlands designaƟon, subject to the preparaƟon of an EIS to the saƟsfacƟon of the Town, the applicable ConservaƟon Authority and other agencies if necessary. For reference, a sample Table of Contents for an EIS is provided in Appendix C. 5.5.1 Natural Heritage Assessment The Natural Heritage constraints mapping was completed through a desktop analysis of available natural heritage data obtained from the County, MNRF, CVC and GRCA. AŌer reviewing the data, the following layers were idenƟﬁed as high constraints: · Provincially Signiﬁcant Wetlands - MNRF; · Unevaluated Wetlands - MNRF; · Area of Natural and ScienƟﬁc Interest (ANSI), Earth Science - MNRF; · ANSI, Life Science - MNRF; and · Core Greenlands - County of Wellington. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 31 Figure 9 illustrates the natural heritage features areas mapped in Erin and Hillsburgh. High constraints were deﬁned as natural features which local agencies consider having high ecological funcƟon and development is generally not permiƩed in these areas. A 30 metre buﬀer was applied to the high constraints layer since these areas oŌen require buﬀers to protect and maintain their funcƟon. The 30 metre buﬀer was determined based on review of relevant policies and guides including but not limited to the Greenbelt Plan (2017), MNRF's Natural Heritage Reference Manual (2010), and regulaƟons under the ConservaƟon AuthoriƟes Act, 1990. A conservaƟve approach was taken to provide increased protecƟon of environmentally signiﬁcant lands and provide for more clarity on developable areas. Once the high constraints were determined, the areas where an EIS is required for development were idenƟﬁed. These included: · Greenlands - County of Wellington; and · 30 m high constraints Buﬀer - Dillon. Development within Greenlands and buﬀers may be possible if limited impacts and appropriate miƟgaƟon and/or compensaƟon are idenƟﬁed through an EIS and agreed to with local regulatory agencies. These areas contain lower quality habitat or are areas that abut high-quality habitat. As a ﬁnal layer, the regulated areas provided by both the CVC and GRCA were disƟnguished. Development within these areas require consultaƟon with the appropriate ConservaƟon Authority. 5.6 Slope Risk Slope stability was also reviewed as part of the exisƟng condiƟons. Using the mapping informaƟon provided by Credit Valley ConservaƟon, areas which were categorized as Valleylands were idenƟﬁed. Figure 10 illustrates the areas of slope risk in Erin and Hillsburgh. Areas were have slope risk were deemed unsuitable for development and removed from the study area. Erin Hillsburgh Wellington Road 52 Trafalgar Road Wellington Road 22 Main Street Tenth Line Sideroad 17 Sixth Line Shamrock Road Wellington Road 23 Sideroad 15 Fifth Line Wellington Road 124 Si deroad 24 Fourth Line Eighth Line S tation Street Sideroad 10 Sideroad 27 Dundas Street East Ninth Line Cre d i t R iver ( Eri n Bra n ch) Eram o sa Ri ver Area C Intensification Area B Area A Intensification Area C Intensification Area A Area D Area G Area H Area F Intensification Area D Area E Area B TOWN OF ERIN GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY NATURAL FEATURES FIGURE 9 NORTH Scale 1:30,000 [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Limited Map Checked by: MM Dillon Consulting Limited October 10, 2019 Document Path: G:\GIS\199450 Erin Growth Management Strategy\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Figure 9 - Natural Features.mxd LEGEND Base Mapping Built Boundary Urban Centre / Hamlet Municipal Boundary Greenbelt Boundary Watercourse Water Body Potential Development Area Defferal Area 2 Future Development Area Potential Wastewater Treatment Plant Site 0 500 1,000 250 Metres High Constraints EIAs Required for Development Constraints Conservation Authority Constraints Buffers Conservation Authority Regulated Areas Erin Hillsburgh Wellington Road 52 Trafalgar Road Wellington Road 22 Main Street Tenth Line Sideroad 17 Sixth Line Shamrock Road Wellington Road 23 Sideroad 15 Fifth Line Wellington Road 124 Si deroad 24 Fourth Line Eighth Line S tation Street Sideroad 10 Sideroad 27 Dundas Street East Ninth Line Area C Intensification Area B Area A Intensification Area C Intensification Area A Area D Area G Area H Area F Intensification Area D Area E Area B Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AeroGRID, IGN, and the GIS User Community TOWN OF ERIN GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY SLOPE RISK - ERIN AND HILLSBURGH FIGURE 10 NORTH Scale 1:30,000 [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Limited Map Checked by: MM Dillon Consulting Limited October 10, 2019 Document Path: G:\GIS\199450 Erin Growth Management Strategy\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Figure 10 - Slope Risk - Erin and Hillsburgh.mxd LEGEND Base Mapping Built Boundary Urban Centre / Hamlet Municipal Boundary Potential Development Area Defferal Area 2 Future Development Area Potential Wastewater Treatment Plant Site 0 500 1,000 250 Metres Slope Risk Valleylands (CVC) Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 34 5.7 Summary The following summarizes the constraints idenƟﬁed through this desktop review: · Land use constraints such as proximity to exisƟng development, and ease of development. · Natural environmental constraints such as wetlands, core Greenlands and areas of natural and scienƟﬁc interest exist throughout the study area. A future EIS will be required to evaluate and conﬁrm delineaƟon of features and appropriate buﬀers and/or miƟgaƟon. · TransportaƟon constraints such as future capacity on County Road 124 in Erin. · Infrastructure constraints such as availability of water and wastewater services. The review of exisƟng condiƟons resulted in the development of high constraint areas which were removed from the calculaƟon of available land supply. Development constraints were considered in establishing the evaluaƟon criteria and used to idenƟfy realisƟc growth opƟons. Figure 11 shows the reﬁned land supply for Erin and Figure 12 shows the reﬁned land supply for Hillsburgh. Overlan d D r i ve C a r olyn C o u r t C hur ch B oulevard Dundas Street East Daniel Street Water Street Millwood Road Eighth Line Main Street March Street Erin Heights D rive S c otch Street Erin Park Drive Long Lane C a rb err y R oad Spring Street Patri ck Drive Lions Park A v enu e Wheelock Street Tenth Line M c C ullogh Dr i ve Mountain v i ew C re sc e nt Lorne Street Pine Street East Church Street Ross Street Boland Drive Arm s trong Street Sideroad 17 W aterford Drive Park Boulevard Wellington Roa d 124 Cedar Lane Laurel Lane Charles Street Erinville Drive First A ven u e Churchill L a n e Willia m S treet Shamrock Road Di a nne Road Centre Street Sideroad 10 Ce d a r R i d g e C ourt F o r e s t R i d g e R oad Erindale Drive Sideroad 15 S eco n d Avenue Ninth Line Wellington Road 23 To m w ell C r es c ent Wesley Crescent Leenders L a ne Dun d as S treet West As p e n C o u rt Pioneer Drive Delerin C r esce n t Willi a m Rex C r e scent Treel o n g Cr escent Delarmbro Dr ive Erinle a Cr e s c ent Erinwood Drive Tho m p s on Cr escent Credit River Road Wellington Road 52 Trafalgar Road Pine Ridge Road Winston Churchill Boulevard Area C Intensification Area B Area A Intensification Area C Intensification Area A Area D Area B Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AeroGRID, IGN, and the GIS User Community TOWN OF ERIN GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY ERIN - REFINED LAND SUPPLY FIGURE 11 NORTH Scale 1:20,000 0 500 1,000 250 Metres [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Limited Map Checked by: MM Dillon Consulting Limited October 10, 2019 Document Path: G:\GIS\199450 Erin Growth Management Strategy\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Figure 11 - Erin - Refined Land Supply.mxd LEGEND Base Mapping County Road Other Road Built Boundary Urban Centre / Hamlet Municipal Boundary Potential Development Area Defferal Area 2 Future Development Area Classified by OP Land Use Community Area Employment Area Other Land Use Constraints High Constraint Parcel < 1 ha Parcel Developed EIA + CA Eighth Line Mill Street Trafalgar Road Cu r rie Road Market Street Jane Street Gilbey Lane Queen Street Church Stre e t McMurchy Crescent Barbour Drive George Street Alice Gate Howe Str e et Ann Street Orangeville Street Covert Lane Spruce Street Wellington Street Ellen Crescent Wa l lace S treet Hill Street Wellington Road 22 Leader Cou r t Sideroad 24 Sixth Line Statio n Stree t Sideroad 27 Upper Canada Drive Do u glas Crescent Area G Area H Area F Intensification Area D Area E TOWN OF ERIN GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY HILLSBURGH - REFINED LAND SUPPLY FIGURE 12 NORTH Scale 1:13,000 0 250 500 125 Metres [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Limited Map Checked by: MM Dillon Consulting Limited October 09, 2019 Document Path: G:\GIS\199450 Erin Growth Management Strategy\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Figure 12 - Hillsburgh - Refined Land Supply.mxd LEGEND Base Mapping County Road Other Road Proposed Minor Collector Built Boundary Urban Centre / Hamlet Municipal Boundary Potential Development Area Classified by OP Land Use Community Area Employment Area Other Land Use Constraints High Constraint Parcel < 1 ha Parcel Developed EIA + CA Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 37 6.0 Regional and Local Economic Overview 6.1 Greater Golden Horseshoe Population and Employment Outlook, 2041 A key driver of the Town of Erin's future economic potenƟal is its geographic locaƟon within Ontario. As illustrated on Figure 13, the Town of Erin is located within south Wellington County within the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH). The GGH comprises the municipaliƟes that make up the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA), as well as the surrounding Regions/CounƟes within Central Ontario, known as the GGH "Outer Ring," which extends from Haldimand County in the southwest, to Simcoe County in the north, and to Peterborough County in the northeast. Wellington County is located in the GGH Outer Ring. The populaƟon of the GGH is forecast to increase from 9.5 million in 2016 to 13.5 million in 2041. This represents a populaƟon increase of 4 million people (approximately 160,000 annually), or 1.4% annually between 2016 and 2041. With respect to the region's economic potenƟal, the GGH employment base is forecast to increase from 4.6 million in 2016 to 6.3 million in 2041. This represents an employment increase of 1.7 million jobs (approximately 68,000 annually), or 1.2% annually between 2016 and 2041. The GGH represents the fourth largest and one of the fastest growing City/Regions in North America. The GGH represents the economic powerhouse of Ontario and the centre of a large porƟon of the economic acƟvity in Canada. The GGH is also economically diverse with most of the top 20 traded industry clusters throughout North America having a strong presence in this region. The industrial and oﬃce commercial real estate markets within this region are signiﬁcant, having the third and sixth largest inventories, respecƟvely, in North America.3 With a robust economy and diverse mix of export-based employment sectors, the GGH is highly aƩracƟve on an internaƟonal level to new businesses and investors. The GGH also has a strong appeal given the area's regional infrastructure (i.e., Toronto Pearson InternaƟonal Airport, other regional airports, provincial highways, inter-modal faciliƟes), access to labour force, post-secondary insƟtuƟons and proximity to the U.S. border. In turn, this conƟnues to support steady populaƟon and housing growth within this region, largely driven by internaƟonal, inter-provincial and intra-provincial net migraƟon to the area. 3 Source: Derived from Cushman & Wakefield Toronto Industrial Market Beat and U.S. Industrial Market Beat Snapshot, Q3 2017 and Cushman & Wakefield Toronto Office Market Beat and U.S. Office Market Beat Snapshot, Q3 2017 by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 38 Figure 13: The Town of Erin within the Context of the Greater Golden Horseshoe Table 11 and Table 12 summarize the long-term populaƟon employment growth forecast for the GGH between the GTHA and the GGH Outer Ring. Figure 14 idenƟﬁes that the GTHA has historically experienced a higher rate of populaƟon and employment relaƟve to the GGH over the 2001 to 2016 period. Looking forward, the forecast annual populaƟon and employment growth rate of the GGH Outer Ring is anƟcipated to increase signiﬁcantly, driven by conƟnued outward growth pressure from the GTHA. In fact, the forecast annual rate of employment growth in the GGH Outer Ring is expected to exceed that of the GTHA between 2016 and 2041. Table 11: Historical and Forecast Population Growth for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2001 to 2041 Population 2001-2016 2016-2041 Area 2001 2016 2041 Total Population Growth Annual Population Growth Rate Total Population Growth Annual Population Growth Rate GTHA 5,808,000 7,183,000 10,130,000 1,375,000 1.4% 2,947,000 1.4% GGH Outer Ring 2,046,000 2,355,000 3,350,000 309,000 0.9% 995,000 1.4% Total 7,854,000 9,538,000 13,480,000 1,684,000 1.3% 3,942,000 1.4% Source: 2001 to 2016 derived from Statistics Canada Census, 2001 and 2016. 2016 to 2041 derived from Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe 2017 by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2019. Note: PopulaƟon includes the Census undercount. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 39 Table 12: Historical and Forecast Employment Growth for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2001 to 2041 Employment 2001-2016 2016-2041 Area 2001 2016 2041 Total Employment Growth Annual Employme nt Growth Rate Total Employment Growth Annual Employme nt Growth Rate GTHA 2,938,000 3,564,000 4,820,000 626,000 1.3% 1,256,000 1.2% GGH Outer Ring 890,000 1,034,000 1,450,000 144,000 1.0% 416,000 1.4% Total 3,828,000 4,598,000 6,270,000 770,000 1.2% 1,672,000 1.2% Source: 2001 to 2016 derived from Statistics Canada Census, 2001 and 2016. 2016 to 2041 derived from Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe 2017 by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2019. Figure 14: Historical and Forecast Annual Employment Growth Rate for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2001 to 2041 The strength of the broader regional GGH economy, in parƟcular the GGH Outer Ring, presents a signiﬁcant opportunity for Wellington County as a whole and more speciﬁcally, the Town of Erin economy and its residents, given its commuƟng distance to growing regional employment markets. The inﬂuence of the regional labour market on future populaƟon growth potenƟal in the Town of Erin is discussed in greater detail in SecƟon 3.3. 6.2 Wellington County Population and Employment Growth Outlook, 2041 Figure 15 summarizes the long-term populaƟon and employment growth outlook for Wellington County to the year 2041 as summarized in Schedule 3 of the Growth Plan for the GGH As previously menƟoned, between 2016 and 2041, Wellington County's populaƟon and employment base is forecast to reach 140,000 people and 61,000 jobs. This represents a respecƟve populaƟon and employment increase of 46,000 persons and 21,000 jobs from 2016, in accordance with StaƟsƟcs Canada Census data. 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 2001-2016 2016-2041 Annual Growth Rate Period G.T.H.A G.G.H Outer Ring Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 40 Figure 15: Long-Term Population and Employment Growth for Wellington County, 2016 to 2041 Figure 16 and Figure 17 rank forecast annual populaƟon and employment growth for each of the GGH Outer Ring municipaliƟes between 2016 and 2041. Wellington County ranks 5th and 4th, respecƟvely, out of the ﬁŌeen GGH Outer Ring municipaliƟes in terms of annual populaƟon and employment growth over the 2016 to 2041 forecast period. Figure 16: Annual Population Growth Rate, 2016 to 2041 94,000 122,000 132,000 140,000 40,000 54,000 57,000 61,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 2016 2031 2036 2041 Total Persons Year Population Employment 0.91% 1.04% 1.14% 1.17% 1.26% 1.30% 1.31% 1.37% 1.45% 1.59% 1.62% 1.66% 1.83% 1.96% 2.24% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% County of Northumberland County of Peterborough Region of Niagara County of Dufferin County of Haldimand City of Peterborough City of Kawartha Lakes City of Guelph City of Orillia County of Brant County of Wellington Region of Waterloo County of Simcoe City of Brantford City of Barrie Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 41 Figure 17: Annual Employment Growth Rate, 2016 to 2041 6.3 Town of Erin Economic Trends 6.3.1 Town of Erin Labour Force Trends, ϤϢϢϣ to ϤϢϣϨ Table 13 and Figure 18 summarize historical labour force growth trends for the Town of Erin between 2001 and 2016. Labour force data represents the number of residents who live in the Town and are within the labour force, regardless of where they work. This includes residents who live and work within the Town of Erin, including those who work from home, and those who commute outside the Town for work. Key observaƟons include: · As of 2016, the Town's total labour force is esƟmated at approximately 7,050; · Over the 2001 to 2016 period, the Town's total labour force4 expanded from 6,550 to 7,050, an increase of 0.5% annually; · The unemployment rate within Town of Erin was recorded at approximately 4.3% in 2016.5 ComparaƟvely, the Ontario unemployment rate was esƟmated at 5.4%.6 As of August 2019, the Province of Ontario unemployment rate is esƟmated at 5.6%;7 4 Total labour force includes unemployed persons looking for work. 5 Unemployment rate based on Statistics Canada 2016 Census. 6 Ibid. 7 Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 0.88% 0.89% 0.92% 1.05% 1.08% 1.15% 1.17% 1.31% 1.32% 1.37% 1.54% 1.68% 2.03% 2.38% 2.48% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% County of Northumberland City of Kawartha Lakes City of Guelph City of Peterborough County of Simcoe County of Dufferin City of Orillia County of Peterborough Region of Niagara County of Haldimand Region of Waterloo County of Wellington County of Brant City of Brantford City of Barrie Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 42 · The Town's live/work raƟo remained steady at 15% from 2001 to 2016. From an economic perspecƟve, a high live-work raƟo is desirable to ensure that the local labour force (i.e., residents of the Town of Erin) is well-served by the opportuniƟes available in the local employment market (i.e., jobs in the Town of Erin); and · As of 2016, approximately 59% of the Town's labour force base commutes outside the Town for work, while approximately 41% live and work within the Town, work from home or are deﬁned as having no ﬁxed place of work (N.F.P.O.W.). Table 13: Town of Erin Historical Labour Force, 2001-2016 Figure 18: Town of Erin Employed Labour Force Base 2001, 2006, and 2016 6.3.2 Town of Erin CommuƟng Trends Figure 19 geographically illustrates the primary commuter-shed for Town of Erin residents in accordance with the 2016 Census. In total, the municipaliƟes highlighted in Figure 20 represent the employment desƟnaƟon of approximately 90% of the total out-commuters in the Town of Erin. For the purpose of this study, the municipaliƟes highlighted in Figure 21 represent the primary commuter-shed for employed Town of Erin residents. Given the relaƟvely higher forecast employment growth rates of the Year Total Labour Force Employed Labour Force Unemployment Rate (%) Participation Rate (%) 2001 6,555 6,290 4.0% 77% 2006 6,680 6,485 2.8% 75% 2011 6,485 6,200 4.3% 73% 2016 7,055 6,750 4.3% 73% Source: Derived from 2001-2016 Statistics Canada Labour Force data by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2019. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 43 GGH municipaliƟes and the relaƟvely high concentraƟon of the Town of Erin's out-commuters to GGH Outer Ring municipaliƟes, it is anƟcipated that the County's proporƟon of out-commuters will remain steady or potenƟally increase over the 2016 to 2041 planning horizon. The municipaliƟes within the Town's primary commuter-shed are forecast to add approximately 604,000 jobs by 2041, an increase from 2,551,800 in 2016 to 3,155,900 by 2041. Projected job growth within the Town's commuter-shed represents a signiﬁcant opportunity for labour force growth within the Town of Erin. Figure 19: Town of Erin Primary Commuter-Shed Figure 20 provides further details with respect to the geographic desƟnaƟon of Town of Erin out- commuters. As summarized, a large share (24%) of Town of Erin out-commuters travel to the City of Mississauga for work. This is followed by the City of Brampton (15%), the Town of Halton Hills (12%), the City of Guelph (9%), the City of Toronto (9%), the Town of Caledon (6%), the Town of Milton (6%), the Town of Orangeville (6%) and the Town of Oakville (4%). As previously menƟoned, these municipaliƟes comprise approximately 90% of the Town of Erin commuter-shed. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 44 Figure 20: Where Town of Erin Employees Commute to Work, 2016 6.3.3 Town of Erin Employment Trends Figure 21 summarizes the total change in the Town of Erin's employment base between 2006 and 2016 in accordance with StaƟsƟcs Canada Census data. Employment represents the number of jobs located within the Town of Erin. This includes the live/work employment, including work at home employees and employees with N.F.P.O.W., as well as in-commuters. During the historical Ɵme-period reviewed, the total employment base for Town of Erin grew at a rate of 1.4% annually, increasing from approximately 3,400 in 2006 to 3,900 in 2016. Figure 21 also summarizes the Town's employment acƟvity rate (raƟo of Town-wide jobs to Town-wide populaƟon) over the 2006 to 2016 period. Over this 10-year period, the Town of Erin's employment acƟvity rate increased slightly from 31% to 34%, indicaƟng that the local employment base increased at a slightly faster rate than the local populaƟon base. RelaƟve to Wellington, the Town of Erin had a comparable acƟvity rate raƟo in 2016. Mississauga 24% Brampton 15% Halton Hills 12% Toronto 9% Guelph 9% Caledon 6% Orangeville 6% Milton 6% Oakville 4% Source: Data from StatisticsCanada, 2016 Census of Population, Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-400-X2016391 by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2019. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 45 Figure 21: Town of Erin Historical Employment Base 6.3.4 Town of Erin Employment Trends by Place of Work Figure 21 above summarizes the historical change in the Town of Erin's employment base by usual place of work (i.e., work at home and N.F.P.O.W.) during the 2006 to 2016 period. As previously discussed, the Town of Erin serves as a source of labour to a number of GGH municipaliƟes. With an esƟmated employed labour force base of 3,900 in 2016, the Town's employment base (i.e., local jobs) is approximately 2,850 lower (approximately 58%) than its employed labour force base (3,900 local jobs versus 6,750 employed labour force). Of the Town's 2016 employment base, approximately 55% of employees are reported as having a usual place of work. The remaining 45% work from home or are reported as having N.F.P.O.W. Over the past 10 years, the share of the Town of Erin's total employment base to employed labour force steadily increased from 53% to 57%, as shown in Table 14. This is a posiƟve trend regarding the strength of the Town of Erin's employment market, because it indicates that the local employment base is growing at a faster pace than the local labour force base. This trend, however, also addresses a rather urgent need for the Town to focus eﬀorts on retaining and aƩracƟng new labour. 3,400 3,500 3,900 31% 31% 34% 30% 31% 31% 32% 32% 33% 33% 34% 34% 35% 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,400 3,500 3,600 3,700 3,800 3,900 4,000 2006 2011 2016 Activity Rate Total Employment Year Total Employment (Including N.F.P.O.W.) Note: Population used for activity rate excludes Census undercount. Source: Derived from Statistics Canada, 2006-2016 data by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2019. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 46 Table 14: Town of Erin Relationship Between Employment (Local Jobs) and Employment Labour Force, 2006 to 2016 Year Town of Erin Employment Relationship of Employment to Employed Labour Force Employed Labour Force Employme nt (Usual Place of Work) Work at Home No Fixed Place of Work (N.F.P.O.W.) Total Employment (Including N.F.P.O.W. and Work at Home) Difference (Employed Labour Force Less Total Employment) Employmen t as % of Labour Force 2006 6,485 1,700 885 820 3,405 3,080 53% 2011 6,200 1,865 770 850 3,485 2,715 56% 2016 6,750 2,145 845 880 3,870 2,880 57% Source: Derived from 2006 to 2016 StaƟsƟcs Canada Place of Work and Labour Force Survey data by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2019. 6.3.5 Town of Erin Employment Trends by Sector Figure 22 summarizes the Town of Erin employment base by sector for 2016. The largest employment sector in the Town of Erin is Retail Trade which accounts for 15% of the total employment base. Other key sectors in the Town of Erin include manufacturing (10%), educaƟonal services (9%), health care and social assistance (8%) and transportaƟon and warehousing (6%), which comprise a total of 33% of the total employment base. Figure 22: Town of Erin Employment Base by Sector, 2016 (Usual Place of Work) Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 6% Mining and oil and gas extraction 1% Construction 6% Manufacturing 10% Wholesale trade 6% Retail trade 15% Transportation and warehousing 6% Finance and insurance 2% Real estate and rental and leasing 1% Professional, scientific and technical services 5% Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services 6% Educational services 9% Health care and social assistance 8% Arts, entertainment and recreation 3% Accommodation and food services 6% Other services (except public administration) 6% Public administration 3% Does not include Utilities, Information and cultural industries, and Management of companies and enterprises due to Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 47 Goods Producing 36% Retail and Other Services Sectors 64% 2016 Goods Producing 36% Retail and Other Services Sectors 64% 2006 The structure of the Town's economy has remained relaƟvely steady over the past decade where the Province has steadily shiŌed away from tradiƟonal good-producing sectors to the retail sector and other service sectors. Figure 23 summarizes the Town's employment base between goods-producing sectors (largely industrial and agricultural) and retail/other service sectors. As of 2016, retail and other service sectors comprised approximately 64% of the Town's employment base. In contrast, during this period the Province as a whole, experienced a steady increase in the share of retail and other services sector employment, increasing from 68% to 75%. Figure 23: Town of Erin Employment Trends by Major Sector, 2006 and 2016 6.4 Observations The future populaƟon and employment growth potenƟal of the Town is closely Ɵed to the economic potenƟal of the broader economic region which forms the Town's primary commuter-shed. Local and regional economic growth and associated job creaƟon represent key drivers of populaƟon growth across the County and the Town. The Town's economy is concentrated in a number of employment sectors related to manufacturing, transportaƟon and warehousing, construcƟon, health care, educaƟon, retail and accommodaƟon and food services. Looking forward, exisƟng and emerging knowledge-based and "creaƟve class" sectors such as professional, technical and scienƟﬁc services, health care and social assistance, educaƟonal services, tourism, and advanced manufacturing, are expected to represent some of the fastest growing employment sectors of the Town. In addiƟon, the Town is anƟcipated to experience steady employment growth in the service and construcƟon sector driven by future populaƟon growth. Source: Derived from 2006, 2016 Statistics Canada Place of Work data by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 48 Despite the local and regional economic growth potenƟal idenƟﬁed herein, the Town's labour force base has increased modestly over the last decade. For the Town of Erin's local economic base to conƟnue to grow, eﬀort will be required to retain and aƩract new skilled working residents to the Town. AƩracƟon eﬀorts must also be linked to housing accommodaƟon (both ownership and rental), municipal services and infrastructure, as well as quality of life aƩributes that appeal to a younger mobile populaƟon, while not detracƟng from the Town's aƩracƟveness to older populaƟon segments. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 49 7.0 Population, Household and Employment Growth Outlook, 2016 to 2041 7.1 What Drives Population Growth? As previously discussed, it is important to recognize that future populaƟon and employment growth within the Town is strongly correlated with the employment growth outlook and compeƟƟveness of the employment sectors with the local and regional economies. As previously idenƟﬁed, the regional economy can be broadly deﬁned as the Town's primary commuter-shed. PotenƟal employment, both local as well as within the surrounding commuter-shed, represents the primary driver of net migraƟon to the Town. In turn, net migraƟon drives populaƟon growth within the Town's working-age populaƟon and their dependents (i.e., children, spouses not in the labour force and other family members). The employment base within the Town and the surrounding commuter-shed can be grouped into two broad categories - export-based sectors and community-based sectors. The laƩer primarily refers to local populaƟon-serving employment. Export-based sectors are comprised of industries (i.e., economic clusters) that produce goods that reach markets outside the community (e.g., agriculture and primary resources, manufacturing, research and development as well as other knowledge-based industries). Export-based industries also provide services to temporary and/or other residents of the municipality not captured by Census data as part of the permanent populaƟon base (hotels, restaurants, tourism- related sectors, colleges and universiƟes) or to businesses outside the community/municipality (specialized ﬁnancial, professional, scienƟﬁc and technical services). Economic growth in the regional export-based economy generates wealth and economic opportuniƟes that, in turn, sƟmulate community-based or populaƟon-related employment sectors, including retail trade, accommodaƟon and food, and other services sectors. As such, regional economic growth represents the key driver of net migraƟon and, ulƟmately long-term populaƟon and housing growth within the Town. On the other hand, long-term populaƟon growth of the County's populaƟon aged 65+ will be largely driven by the aging of the Town's exisƟng populaƟon and, to a lesser extent, the aƩracƟveness and aﬀordability of the Town to exisƟng and new seniors. 7.2 Population Growth Drivers in the Town of Erin 7.2.1 Outward Growth Pressure from the Greater Golden Horseshoe As previously menƟoned, the Town is located within the GGH Outer Ring. The magnitude and distribuƟon of growth throughout the GGH is of key signiﬁcance to the Town. More speciﬁcally, as the more mature areas of the GGH gradually build out, increasing outward growth pressure will be placed on the outlying municipaliƟes of the GGH Outer Ring, and beyond. It is anƟcipated that the majority of all new residents migraƟng to the Town will be within the 0-54 age group; however, a proporƟon of new Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 50 migrants are also expected in the 55-74 age group, given the Town's aƩracƟveness as a reƟrement desƟnaƟon and its proximity to outdoor recreaƟon, as well as arts, culture and entertainment, both locally and within neighbouring municipaliƟes such as Centre Wellington, the City of Guelph, the Town of Orangeville and the Town of Caledon. The bulk of new residents coming to the Town are in the 19-54 age category and will ulƟmately seek compeƟƟvely priced ground-oriented housing forms (i.e., low and medium density) to accommodate exisƟng and/or future families. RelaƟve to the municipaliƟes in the west GGH, average housing prices in the Town are lower and more aﬀordable relaƟve to local income. As housing prices conƟnue to steadily rise across the Town and County, it is foreseeable that an increasing proporƟon of the populaƟon in the Town will be accommodated in various forms of medium- and high-density housing (i.e., townhouses, walk-up apartments, triplexes, and low-rise apartments). In addiƟon, a proporƟon of new migrants plus exisƟng residents in the County's growing 55+ age group will also seek higher density housing accommodaƟons, ranging from tradiƟonal apartments to assisted living accommodaƟons and seniors' housing, within the Town's urban seƩlement areas (i.e., Erin Village and Hillsburgh) given their access to urban ameniƟes and health care services. 7.2.2 PopulaƟon Growth of the ϧϧ+ Age Group PopulaƟon growth of the 55+ age group across Ontario will conƟnue to be a key driver of housing growth in Town over the next 25 years. For the Province of Ontario as a whole, the percentage of the 55+ age group to the total populaƟon is projected to increase from 30% in 2016 to 36% in 2041.8 The source of net migraƟon to Town of Erin in the 55+ age category is anƟcipated to be largely driven from the surrounding GGH region. It is important to recognize that the populaƟon base of Town is slightly older on average, and aging at a slightly faster rate than the Province as a whole. The Town's 55+ age group has grown considerably over the past 25 years and is expected to increase in both percentage and absolute terms over the next several decades, largely due to the aging of the Town's Baby Boom populaƟon. Over the next 25 years, the aging of the Town's populaƟon base is anƟcipated to place downward pressure on the rate of populaƟon growth within the Town. Similar to the Province of Ontario and County of Wellington, the Town will increasingly become more reliant on net migraƟon as a source of populaƟon growth as a result of these demographic condiƟons. It is important to recognize these demographic trends, as they are anƟcipated to impact the rate of populaƟon and economic growth expected across the Town over the next several decades. It is also important to recognize that forecast populaƟon growth rates are not anƟcipated to be homogenous across the Town's urban and rural areas. 8 Ministry of Finance, Spring 2017 Update, Table 6: Ontario Population Projections, 2016-2041, reference scenario. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 51 In the Town's rural areas, the populaƟon is anƟcipated to increase moderately over Ɵme as these areas are expected to experience limited new housing growth. While the aging of the Town's populaƟon will have a downward impact on populaƟon growth in the Town's rural areas, these same demographic trends are anƟcipated to place increasing development pressures on the Town's Urban Centres. This is because the aging of the Town's populaƟon is anƟcipated to drive the need for seniors' housing and other housing forms geared to older adults (e.g., assisted living, aﬀordable housing, adult lifestyle housing), that are not available, or cannot be provided for, in the surrounding rural area. Given the diversity of the 55-74 and 75+ populaƟon age groups, forecast housing demand across Town of Erin within this broad 55+ demographic group is anƟcipated to vary considerably. Within the 55+ age group, housing demand within the 55-74 age group is anƟcipated to be relaƟvely strong for ground- oriented housing forms (i.e., single detached, semi-detached and townhouses) that provide proximity to urban ameniƟes, municipal services and community infrastructure. With respect to the 75+ age group, the physical and socio-economic characterisƟcs of this age group (on average) are considerably diﬀerent from those of younger seniors, empty-nesters and working adults with respect to income, mobility and health. Typically, these characterisƟcs of the 75+ populaƟon age group drive demand for medium- and high-density housing forms (including seniors' housing) that are in proximity to urban ameniƟes, health care services and other community faciliƟes geared toward this age group. 7.2.3 AƩracƟng Millennials and GeneraƟon Z Future housing needs in Town will be increasingly impacted by the Millennial generaƟon. While there is no standard age group associated with the Millennial generaƟon, persons born between 1980 and 1992 best ﬁt the deﬁniƟon of this age group. Given the age and size of this cohort, Millennials will play a key role with respect to labour force supply, which as previously menƟoned is criƟcal to the steady growth of Town of Erin's populaƟon. The extent to which Town can capitalize on this shiŌ is subject to a number of economic and socio-economic variables (e.g., relaƟve housing costs/aﬀordability, local and regional employment opportuniƟes, fuel costs, lifestyle preferences and perceived quality of life between larger urban municipaliƟes and relaƟvely smaller urban areas/rural service centres). In an eﬀort to retain and aƩract a segment of this populaƟon group, opportuniƟes should be explored across Town to provide a mix of future housing by tenure across a range of density types, to accommodate new and exisƟng residents with varying levels of income (including aﬀordable housing opƟons) within new Greenﬁeld areas as well through intensiﬁcaƟon areas across the Town. 7.2.4 Quality of Life Quality of life is a key factor inﬂuencing the residenƟal locaƟon decisions of individuals and their families. It is also a factor considered by companies in their respecƟve relocaƟon decisions. Typically, quality of life encompasses several factors such as employment opportuniƟes, cost of living, housing aﬀordability, crime levels, quality of schools, transportaƟon, recreaƟonal opportuniƟes, climate, arts Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 52 and culture, entertainment, ameniƟes and populaƟon diversity. The importance of such factors; however, will vary considerably depending on life stage and individual preferences. The Town oﬀers opportuniƟes for small-town living with access to shopping and urban ameniƟes, arts and culture, recreaƟon and the rural countryside. The Town's urban and rural character oﬀers a high quality of life which is expected to drive net migraƟon from a broad range of demographic groups, including the 55-74 age group (i.e., Baby Boomers (populaƟon born between 1946 and 1964) and younger seniors) and the remaining adult populaƟon age groups. 7.3 Town of Erin Population, Household and Employment Forecast, 2016 to 2041 7.3.1 Labour Growth PotenƟal Within the Town of Erin Commuter-Shed SecƟon 6.3.2 provides a summary of the Town's commuter-shed trends where, historically, out- commuters within the Town of Erin have represented a rather small but relaƟvely steady share of the employment market within the Town of Erin's primary commuter-shed. In 2016, the Town's out- commuters accounted for approximately 3,900 jobs, which represents approximately 0.14% of the total jobs within the Town's primary commuter-shed. In accordance with historical trends, it is reasonable to assume that the raƟo of the Town's out-commuters will remain relaƟvely stable over the next 25 years. Figure 24 summarizes Erin's labour force growth potenƟal related to out-commuters, assuming a steady raƟo of Town of Erin out-commuters to employment growth within the primary commuter-shed. This scenario generates an increase of 1,100 out-commuters in the Town over the 25-year planning horizon, from 3,500 in 2016 to 4,600 in 2041. As previously menƟoned, the number of out-commuters within the primary commuter-shed represents approximately 90% of the total Town's commuter-shed. Figure 24: Town of Erin Forecast Out-Commuters, 2016 to 2041 Figure 25 summarizes the total labour force forecast for the Town of Erin including out-commuters, live/work employment, work at home employment and employees with N.F.P.O.W. In total, the Town of 3,300 3,500 3,500 4,100 4,300 4,600 0.15% 0.15% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 2001 2006 2016 2031 2036 2041 Share of Primary Commuter- Shed Total Out-Commuters Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 53 Erin's total labour force base is forecast to increase by 3,000 between 2016 and 2041, from 6,800 to 9,800. This represents an annual labour force growth rate of 1.5%. As the Town's population continues to grow, designated employment lands are serviced and the Town's Business Centres continue to mature, the share of live/work employment is anticipated to steadily rise. Figure 25: Town of Erin Employed Labour Force by Sector, 2001 to 2041 7.3.2 Population, Housing and Employment Growth Potential, 2016 to 2041 Table 15 summarizes the long-term population forecast for persons aged 15+ within the Town of Erin from 2016 to 2041 in accordance with the forecast labour force trends identified in Section 7.3.1. Over the 2016 to 2041 period, the Town of Erin's population aged 15+ is forecast to increase by just over 6,300 persons from 9,900 in 2016 to 16,200 in 2041 including the net Census undercount. Table 15: Town of Erin Working-Age Population Forecast, 2016 to 2041 Town of Erin Census Forecast 2001 2006 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 Total Labour Force 6,300 6,500 6,800 7,400 7,800 8,300 8,900 9,800 Labour force participation Rate (Total Labour Force/Pop 15+) 76.4% 74.9% 73.0% 72.1% 71.2% 70.3% 66.7% 62.2% Population 15 and Over 8,800 9,200 9,900 10,600 11,300 12,100 13,800 16,200 Note: Population includes the net Census undercount. Numbers have been rounded. Source: 1991 to 2016 derived from Statistics Canada Census data. 2016 to 2041 forecast derived by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2019. As previously mentioned, the Town's historical share of population aged 15+ to total population has been steadily increasing as a result of the aging of the population, primarily those in the 55+ age group. Consistent with historical trends, the share of the Town's 15+ population is forecast to increase from approximately 84% in 2016 to 85% in 2041. Combining the 15+ and 0-15 population provides a total 2041 population for Town of Erin of 19,000. The total Town population forecast is summarized below in Figure 26 and Table 16. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 54 2,500 2,300 1,800 1,600 1,300 2,200 2,500 2,800 8,800 9,200 9,900 10,600 11,300 12,100 13,800 16,200 11,300 11,500 11,700 12,200 12,600 14,300 16,300 19,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 2001 2006 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 Population Including Undercount Year Age 0-15 Age 15+ Total Population (Including undercount) Figure 26: Town of Erin Population Forecast, 2016 to 2041 Table 16: Town of Erin Population Forecast, 2016 to 2041 Town of Erin Census Forecast 2001 2006 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 Population Under 15 2,500 2,300 1,800 1,600 1,300 2,200 2,500 2,800 Population 15 and Over 8,800 9,200 9,900 10,600 11,300 12,100 13,800 16,200 Total Population 11,300 11,500 11,700 12,200 12,600 14,300 16,300 19,000 Share of Population 15+ 78% 80% 85% 87% 90% 85% 85% 85% Note: PopulaƟon includes the net Census undercount. Numbers have been rounded. Source: 2001 to 2016 derived from StaƟsƟcs Canada Census data. 2016 to 2041 forecast derived by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2019. 7.3.3 Town of Erin Housing Forecast, ϤϢϣϨ to ϤϢϦϣ Figure 27 summarizes the long-term housing forecast for the Town in accordance with the populaƟon forecast outlined in SecƟon 5.3.2. Key observaƟons include: · Between 2016 and 2041, the Town's housing base is forecast to increase by approximately 2,380 units, from 4,110 in 2016 to 6,490 in 2041. This represents an annual increase of 95 households per year; · New housing development is anƟcipated to remain dominated by ground-oriented housing forms; however, as previously menƟoned, demand for medium and high-density housing forms is anƟcipated to steadily increase over the forecast period, driven by the aging of the Town's populaƟon base and rising housing prices relaƟve to household income; and · Over the forecast period, average household occupancy levels (i.e., persons per unit or P.P.U.) are anƟcipated to steadily increase, driven by housing demand from families. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 55 Figure 27: Town of Erin Long-term Housing Forecast Year Population (Including Census Undercount)1 Housing Units Person Per Unit (P.P. U.): Total Population/Total Households Singles and Semi- Detached Multiple Dwellings2 Apartments3 Other Total Households International Forecast Historical Mid 2006 11,610 3,495 65 125 11 5 3,800 2,934 Mid 2011 11,890 3,755 10 95 95 3,955 2,887 Mid 2016 11,910 3,805 35 120 15 0 4,110 2,783 Mid 2031 14,340 4,682 103 184 15 0 5,118 2,691 Mid 2036 16,250 5,198 137 184 15 0 5,669 2,753 Mid 2041 18,900 5,878 187 274 15 0 6,489 2,799 Mid 2006- Mid 2011 280 260 -55 -30 -20 155 Mid 2011- Mid 2016 20 50 25 25 55 155 Mid 2016- Mid 2031 2,430 877 68 64 0 1,008 Mid 2016 - Mid 2036 4,340 1,393 102 64 0 1,559 Mid 2016- Mid 2041 6,990 2,073 152 154 0 2, 379 Derived from Wellington County Official Plan (Revisions November 9, 2017) forecast for the Town of Erin by Watson & Associates 1 Census undercut estimated at approximately 4.1%. Note: Population including the undercount has been rounded. 2 Includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes. 3 Includes bachelor, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom+ apartments. 4 Buildout represents the buildout of urban residential excluding rural development. 7.3.4 Town of Erin Employment Forecast, ϤϢϣϨ to ϤϢϦϣ Figure 28 summarized the Town-wide employment forecast from 2016 to 2041. The employment forecast is based on the 2019 Wellington County Oﬃcial Plan employment allocaƟon for the Town of Erin. Key observaƟons include: · Town-wide employment base is forecast to increase by approximately 1,400 jobs between 2016 and 2041; · This represents an annual employment growth rate of 1.2% and 7% of Wellington County total employment growth; · Comparably, the Wellington County employment base is anƟcipated to increase at an annual rate of 1.7%; and · The Town's employment acƟvity rate (raƟo of jobs to populaƟon) is anƟcipated to decline slightly from 32% in 2016 to 28% by 2041. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 56 Figure 28: Town of Erin Employment Base forecast, 2016 to 2041 7.3.5 Share of Town of Erin PopulaƟon and Employment Growth RelaƟve to Wellington County, ϤϢϣϨ to ϤϢϦϣ Over the past two decades, populaƟon and employment growth in the Town has been constrained by available municipal water and wastewater capacity. With approved municipal water and wastewater servicing capacity, the Town is forecast to accommodate approximately 15% of the County-wide populaƟon growth from 2016 - 2041 as shown in Figure 29. As previously menƟoned, the Town is forecast to accommodate approximately 7% of County-wide employment growth from 2016 - 2041 as shown in Figure 30. Figure 29: Wellington County Share of Growth by Municipalities, 2001 to 2041 3,400 3,500 3,900 4,600 5,000 5,200 29% 29% 32% 32% 30% 28% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2006 2011 2016 2031 2036 2041 Activity Rate Total Employment (Including N.F.P.O.W.) Year Total Employment (Including N.F.P.O.W.) Activity Rate Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 57 Figure 30: Wellington County Employment Growth by Municipality, 2016 to 2041 7.3.6 ObservaƟons Future populaƟon and housing growth potenƟal for the Town is signiﬁcant given the Town's proximity to west GTHA employment market. Over the forecast period, employment levels within the Town's commuter-shed are forecast to increase by over 600,000. Job growth in the surrounding commuter-shed represent the key driver of net-migraƟon to the Town. The growth assessment undertaken herein idenƟﬁes that the high growth scenario for the Town (approximately 19,000 people), as idenƟﬁed in the County Oﬃcial Plan9, represents that appropriate long-term populaƟon growth range for the Town. It is further noted that the provided that municipal water and wastewater capacity is available, the Town's populaƟon could potenƟally exceed the high growth scenario by 2041. As such, it is recommended that the Town's long-term populaƟon growth is regularly monitored and updated in accordance with the review of the Wellington County and Town of Erin Oﬃcial Plans. 9 Wellington County Official Plan, August 15, 2019, Pg. 15. Erin 7% Guelph/Er amosa 6% Centre Wellingto n 52% Puslinch 8% North Wellingto n County Municipali ties 27% Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 58 8.0 Residential and Non-Residential Growth Forecast by Planning Policy Area 8.1 Housing Forecast by Planning Policy Area, 2016 to 2041 This secƟon provides a more detailed allocaƟon of the Town's growth forecast by planning policy area including; the Built-up Areas (BUA), Designated Greenﬁeld Areas (DGA) and remaining rural lands. The 2019 County of Wellington Oﬃcial Plan idenƟﬁes the BUA as all lands within the built boundary, while the DGA refers to the area within a seƩlement area that is not a BUA. The Wellington County Oﬃcial Plan states that for each year post 2015, a minimum of 20% of all residenƟal development annually will occur within the built-up area and the DGA area will achieve an overall minimum density of not less than 40 residents and jobs per hectare.10 As shown below in Table 17, the BUA is anƟcipated to receive 20% of the Town's total housing growth, accounƟng for 457 units over the 2019 to 2041 forecast period. Of this total housing intensiﬁcaƟon allocaƟon, 50% are in the form of low-density units (single and semi-detached), 20% are medium- density units (townhouses and duplexes), and 30% are high density units (apartments). It is anƟcipated that the DGA will receive 62% of the total growth, reaching an average density of 50 residents and jobs per hectare over the 2019-2041 Ɵme-horizon. The Town's rural area is expected to grow by approximately 16 units per year over the next 25 years. This represents approximately 400 new low-density units of growth over the 2019-2041 Ɵme-horizon or approximately 18% of the Towns total housing forecast. Table 17: Town of Erin Residential Housing Growth, 2016-2041 Households Growth by Structure Type Residential Growth Low- Density1 Medium- Density2 High- Density3 Total Town of Erin 1,990 152 142 2,284 Built-up Area (BUA) 228 91 137 457 Designated Greenfield Area (DGA) 1,360 61 5 1,425 Rural 402 0 0 402 1Includes Single and Semi-detached. 2Includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes. 3Includes apartments. 10 Wellington County Official Plan, Office Consolidation. August 15, 2019. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 59 8.2 Employment Forecast by Sector and by Planning Policy Area, 2016 to 2041 Employment within the Town of Erin is anƟcipated to occur in either designated Employment Areas or within the Community Lands. As shown in Table 18, the Town's employment base is anƟcipated to increase by approximately 1,300 jobs from 2019-2041. Of this total approximately 61% of new jobs have been allocated to the Town's Community Lands, while the remaining 39% have been allocated to the Town's designated Employment Areas. Table 18: Town of Erin Employment Growth by Planning Area, 2016 to 2041 Employment Sector Employment Lands Growth, 2016-2041 Community Lands Growth, 2016-2041 Total Employment Growth, 2016-2041 Primary 0 0 0 Work at Home 0 295 295 Industrial 268 0 268 Commercial/Population Related 124 371 494 Institutional 4 32 35 No Fixed Place of Work 116 116 232 Total 511 813 1,324 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2019 Table 19 provides a further allocaƟon of the Town's urban employment forecast on Community Lands by Planning Policy Area (i.e., BUA and DGA). Of the approximate 800 jobs forecast on Community Lands, just over 200 have been allocated to the BUA while just under 600 new jobs have been allocated to the DGA lands. Table 19: Town of Erin Employment Growth within Community Lands, 2019 to 2041 Employment Sector Emp. Growth on Designated Greenfield Area (Community Lands) Emp. Growth within BUA Total Employment on Community Lands Primary 0 0 0 Work at Home 252 44 296 Industrial 0 0 0 Commercial/Population Related 259 111 371 Institutional 22 9 32 No Fixed Place of Work 58 58 116 Total 591 222 813 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2019 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 60 9.0 Urban Land Needs Analysis 9.1 Urban Land Demand, 2019 to 2041 9.1.1 Community Land Needs This secƟon builds on the Town's long-term residenƟal and on-residenƟal land supply assessment presented in SecƟon 4.0 for the DGA Community Lands within both the Erin Urban Centre and the Hillsburgh Urban Centre. ExisƟng land supply within the DGA Community Lands is then compared with forecast demand to assess long-term needs. A key factor that was considered in this analysis is the build out capacity of the wastewater treatment plant, as described in SecƟon 5.3 of this report. As summarized in Table 20 and Table 21, ﬁndings include: · Between 2019 and 2041, the Town's DGA lands are anƟcipated to approximately 4,700 persons and 1,400 housing units. · An addiƟonal 600 new jobs area also anƟcipated within the Town's DGA Community Lands between 2019 and 2041. · The Town currently has a total land supply of 220 gross ha within its DGA Community Lands. · In accordance with forecast housing and employment growth within the DGA, a total of 100 ha of residenƟal lands and 6 ha of non-residenƟal land are required between 2019 and 2041. Therefore, there is suﬃcient land supply within the DGA Community Lands to accommodate the 2041 demand. In addiƟon, there is suﬃcient capacity in the WWTP to accommodate the 2041 demand. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 61 Table 20: Town of Erin Community Lands Designated Greenfield Residential and Non-residential Land Needs, 2019-2041 Designated Greenfield Area - Community Lands Total (Erin + Hillsburgh) Residential Demand Total Housing Demand, 2019 to 2041 1,425 Net Density (units per net ha) 22 Net Land Requirement (net ha) 65 Gross Land Area Surplus/Deficit - 65% Net to Gross Ratio (Gross ha) 100 Non-Residential Demand Total Employment Demand including N.F.P.O.W and W.A.H, 2019 to 2041 591 Net Density (Jobs per net ha) 133 Net Land Requirement (net ha) 4 Gross Land Area Surplus/Deficit - 75% Net to Gross Ratio (Gross ha) 6 Total Land Demand Total Residential and Non-residential Land Demand (Gross ha) 106 Community Land Supply Residential Land Supply (Gross ha), 2019 220 Community Land Needs Land Area Surplus/ Deficit (Gross ha) 114 Note: Numbers may not add precisely due to rounding Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2018 Table 21 idenƟﬁes the average density of new development within the Town's DGA Community Lands between 2019 and 2041. In summary, new development within the Town's DGA Community Lands is anƟcipated to average 50 residents and jobs per hectare. Table 21: Town of Erin Community Land Average Population and Employment Density, 2019 to 2041 Town of Erin Community Land Average Population and Employment Density 2019-2041 Population 4,673 Employment 591 Total Population and Employment 5,264 Land Need (ha) 106 Residents and Jobs Density per ha 50 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2019 9.1.2 Employment Land Needs Employment Areas typically include a broad range of designated lands, including light, medium and heavy industrial lands, business parks and rural industrial lands. Employment Areas accommodate primarily export-based employment, including a wide range of industrial uses (e.g., manufacturing, distribuƟon/logisƟcs, transportaƟon services), as well as speciﬁc commercial and insƟtuƟonal uses (e.g., oﬃce, services, ancillary/accessory retail). Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 62 The Town is anƟcipated to add approximately 500 jobs within its designated Employment Areas. This represents 39% of the Town's total job growth between 2019 and 2041. Based on an average employment density of 16 jobs per gross hectare, this generates an Employment Area land need of 32 gross ha. As summarized in Table 22, an Employment Area surplus of 16 ha has been idenƟﬁed by 2041 based on available land supply. Table 22: Employment Land Demand, 2019-2041 Employment Land Demand Area (ha) Employment on Employment Lands, 2019 to 20411 511 Forecast Employment Density on Employment Lands (Jobs/ Gross Ha) 16 Gross Land Area (gross ha) 32 Employment Land Supply Employment Land Supply (Gross Ha) 48 Employment Land Needs Employment Land Surplus/Deficit (Gross Ha) 16 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2019 1 Includes N.F.P.O.W and W.A.H. Note: Numbers may not add precisely due to rounding. 9.1.3 Summary The urban land needs assessment provided herein idenƟﬁes that the Town of Erin has a suﬃcient supply of DGA lands, including both Community Lands and Employment Lands to accommodate growth to the year 2041. In addiƟon, there is suﬃcient capacity within the wastewater treatment plant to accommodate the 2041 populaƟon and employment forecast to 2041. As previously menƟoned, it is foreseeable that urban land demand could exceed the 2041 forecast provided herein, provided this demand does not exceed the Town's municipal water and wastewater servicing capacity. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 63 10.0 Growth Allocation Scenarios Based on our review of the County Oﬃcial Plan, the Town of Erin Oﬃcial Plan and the various background reports, there is an excess of designated residenƟal and employment land in the Urban Centres to meet the populaƟon and employment forecast for Hillsburgh and Erin to 2041. As a result and as required through the PPS, it is necessary to idenƟfy, prioriƟze and phase lands which will accommodate this growth. 10.1 Evaluation Framework An evaluaƟon matrix was prepared to objecƟvely examine the development potenƟal of each potenƟal development area. The evaluaƟon framework included using 23 criteria relevant to the assessment of future growth in the Town, which were informed by public input through the Community Growth Survey. The criteria shown in Table 23, covers all aspects of the development cycle and evaluates each of the areas based on how feasible they are to develop. Key quesƟons considered: · Is the growth area adjacent to exisƟng BUAs to allow for eﬃcient use of land, infrastructure and public service faciliƟes? · Does the growth area provide suﬃcient land to meet the Town's long-term housing demand? · Are there known constraints that would impact the ease of development? · Can the land be eﬃciently served by exisƟng or planned transportaƟon and acƟve transportaƟon networks? · Can the area be eﬃciently serviced by a future municipal sanitary sewer system? Table 23: Evaluation Criteria EvaluaƟon Criteria 1. Proximity to ExisƟng Development 2. Natural Heritage Features 3. Human-made Hazards 4. Proximity to ExisƟng and Planned FaciliƟes, Parks and Open Space 5. Surface and Groundwater 6. AcƟve TransportaƟon 7. Land Use CompaƟbility 8. Agricultural Impacts 9. Road Network 10. Housing 11. Mineral and Petroleum Resources 12. Water Improvements 13. Employment 14. Cultural Heritage and Archaeology 15. Sanitary Sewer System 16. Ease of Development 17. Natural Hazards 18. Emergency Services 19. Air Quality and Climate Change 20. Overall Capital Costs 21. Cross-JurisdicƟonal 22. Community Character 23. Phasing Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 64 10.2 Issues and Opportunities AŌer examining the each of the potenƟal development areas based on the evaluaƟon criteria, issues and opportuniƟes for future growth began to emerge. For simplicity, these are summarized into key themes, including: · Land Use; · Natural Features; · TransportaƟon; · Wastewater Servicing; and · Water Servicing. Highlights of this analysis are described below for Erin and Hillsburgh. 10.2.1 Land Use As previously menƟoned, the lands examined as part of this GMS are lands within the Urban Centres are designated for development. The potenƟal development areas were also examined based on proximity to exisƟng built up areas and public service faciliƟes. Table 24 shows the land use consideraƟons for each potenƟal development area. Table 24: Land Use Considerations PotenƟal Development Area Comments Erin Area A Designated Greenlands, Core Greenlands and ResidenƟal. Close proximity to exisƟng built- up areas. Not in close proximity to exisƟng parks. Area B Designated ResidenƟal. In close proximity to exisƟng neighbourhoods; however, is not in close proximity to exisƟng parks. Area C Primarily designated as ResidenƟal. Small porƟon in the south as Greenlands and Core Greenlands. Not in close proximity to exisƟng built-up areas or parks. Area D Designated Highway Commercial, Industrial, Future Development and ResidenƟal. Is in close proximity to exisƟng development and parks. Hillsburgh Area E Designated ResidenƟal and Core Greenlands. In close proximity to Trafalgar Road through StaƟon street. Not in close proximity to exisƟng parks. Area F Designated ResidenƟal, RecreaƟonal, Future Development and Industrial. Is in close proximity Trafalgar Road and close to public school which has a playground and playing ﬁelds. Area G Designated ResidenƟal and Future Development. Is in close proximity to exisƟng residenƟal developments; however, not in close proximity to parks. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 65 10.2.2 People and Jobs The total housing demand for the Town to 2041 is 1,425 and the total employment demand to 2041 was 1,112. Each of the growth areas was assessed based on the percentage each of the areas could accommodate. Table 25 below show the capacity for each of the growth areas in Erin and Hillsburgh. Table 25: People and Jobs Area Housing Demand to 2041 Employment Demand on Community Lands to 2041 Employment Demand on Employment Lands to 2041 Erin Area A 17% 13% 9% Area B 0% 0% 0% Area C 68% 52% 0% Area D 88% 67% 96% Hillsburgh Area E 34% 26% 0% Area F 66% 66% 34% Area G 30% 23% 0% 10.2.3 Natural Heritage Features Each of the potenƟal development areas were evaluated based on proximity to natural environmental features. At the Ɵme of development applicaƟon, addiƟonal studies will be required to determine speciﬁc buﬀers for the natural heritage features and any potenƟal Species-at-Risk. Table 26 shows the natural features constraints by potenƟal development area. Table 26: Natural Heritage Features Constraints PotenƟal Development Area Comments Erin Area A Surrounded and bisected by several natural heritage features Area B Within a ConservaƟon Authority regulated area. There are no signiﬁcant natural heritage features present. Area C Surrounded and bisected by several natural heritage features. Area D Some natural heritage features present on the north side of the development area Hillsburgh Area E Some natural heritage features which exist along the northern boundary of the growth area. Area F Some natural heritage features which are present in the growth area. Area G No signiﬁcant natural heritage features present. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 66 10.2.4 TransportaƟon Each of the growth areas were evaluated based on the accessibility to the exisƟng transportaƟon network. Table 27 shows the transportaƟon consideraƟons by potenƟal development area. Table 27: Transportation Considerations PotenƟal Development Area Comments Erin Area A Direct access to municipal road network - WR 124 & Eighth Line. Eighth Line is not paved and would likely require upgrades. Area B Indirect access to municipal road network - WR 52 and Ninth Line. Area C Direct access to municipal road network - Sideroad 17, Eighth Line and Dundas St. W. Area D Direct access to municipal road network - WR 124, Sideroad 15 (Dundas St. E.), and Tenth Line. Hillsburgh Area E Direct Access to municipal road network - WR 22 and Sideroad 25 (StaƟon Street). Sideroad 24 (StaƟon Street) may require upgrades. Area F Direct access to municipal road network - Trafalgar Road, WR 22, and Eighth Line. Area G Direct access to municipal road network - Trafalgar Road. Signiﬁcant frontage is present. To service Hillsburgh, Segments #1, #2 and #3 would need to be constructed. These segments includes a pumping staƟon and twin forcemains to the proposed wastewater treatment plant, a series of trunk gravity sewers through the Erin town core, a pumping staƟon at the south end of Hillsburgh and twin forcemains between Hillsburgh and Erin. The developer would be responsible for the design and construcƟon of either pressure or gravity infrastructure to connect the development area itself to the pumping staƟon. Table 28 shows the required wastewater segments by potenƟal development area. Table 28: Wastewater Servicing PotenƟal Development Area Comments Erin Area A Segment #1 is required to service development. Area B Segment #1 is required to service development as well as a gravity system on Aspen and McCullogh. Area C Segment #1 and # 2 are required to service development. Area D Segment #1 and #2 are required to service development. Hillsburgh Area E Segment #1, #2, and #3 are required to service development. Area F Segment #1, #2, and #3 are required to service development. Area G Segment #1, #2, #3 and #4 are required to service development. Note: The developer would be responsible for the design and construcƟon of either pressure or gravity infrastructure to connect the development area to the pumping staƟon. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 67 10.2.5 Water As previously menƟoned, some municipal water services are available in the Town. Each of the potenƟal development areas were examined based on how feasible it would be to connect to exisƟng or proposed water servicing. Table 29 shows the water servicing consideraƟons by potenƟal development area. Table 29: Water Servicing PotenƟal Development Area Comments Erin Area A Direct connecƟons to exisƟng systems are available; Forest Ridge, W.R. 124, William St., Charles St. There will be minimal beneﬁt to other areas. Area B Direct connecƟons to exisƟng system are available; Aspen Court. There will be no beneﬁt to other areas. Area C Direct connecƟons to exisƟng system are available; Eighth Line. Indirect connecƟons to exisƟng system are available; SDRD 17, SDRD 15 (Unopened ROW). There will be no beneﬁt to other areas. Area D Indirect connecƟons to exisƟng system are available; extension of watermain on W.R.124, Dundas St. East, Erinville Dr. (Unopened ROW). There will be beneﬁt to IntensiﬁcaƟon Area A. Hillsburgh Area E Indirect connecƟons to exisƟng system are available; extension of watermain on StaƟon St., Watermain will need to be extended down Trafalgar to the Rail Trail to W.R.22 and down W.R.22 to allow watermain looping; Beneﬁt to exisƟng units on Trafalgar Rd, IntensiﬁcaƟon Area D and Area F. Area F Direct connecƟons to exisƟng system are available: Currie Rd, Spruce St. Indirect connecƟons to exisƟng system are available: extension of watermain down Trafalgar Rd and the Rail Trail; Beneﬁt to exisƟng units on Trafalgar Rd, Area D and Area E. Area G Direct connecƟons to exisƟng system are available; Upper Canada Dr. and Howe St; Beneﬁt to exisƟng units on Upper Canada Dr. 10.3 Summary of Growth Allocation The potenƟal development areas idenƟﬁed were examined against the evaluaƟon criteria for future growth. The analysis resulted in the preferred growth scenario, presented in SecƟon 11. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 68 11.0 Preferred Growth Option and Phasing The EvaluaƟon Framework was used by the technical planning team to test scenarios and develop a preferred scenario for future growth in Erin. 11.1 Preferred Scenario The preferred growth scenario based on the evaluaƟon framework is to prioriƟze future populaƟon growth in Area C, Area D in Erin Village and Area E in Hillsburgh (Figure 31). The preferred growth scenario provides suﬃcient land to accommodate the 2041 demand forecast and aligns with the recommended municipal ﬁnancing approach outlined in the Wastewater Financing OpƟons Study undertaken in 2019. The Town should monitor and review the phasing approach over Ɵme and if proposals are presented that ulƟmately require a variaƟon of the recommendaƟons contained herein, this should be reviewed in accordance with the evaluaƟon criteria set out through this document. This provides the Town with ﬂexibility to adjust areas to be considered for development, as necessary, based on a variety of factors, including but not limited to market realiƟes. Corresponding with these areas, it is assumed that the intensiﬁcaƟon areas will be developed within this planning horizon as well. These sites are considered to be within the BUA and are not restrained to meet any density requirements, but to achieve 20% of the Town's future residenƟal housing growth. This equates to approximately 457 units (see Table 17). 11.1.1 Recommended Phasing The recommended phasing of growth is Ɵed to the construcƟon of the wastewater treatment plant and Ɵming of the construcƟon of servicing segments. Developers have the opportunity to accelerate the servicing construcƟon through front-ending the costs and recovering funds through future development agreements. Based on the planned future servicing discussed in SecƟon 5.3, and the preferred scenario illustrated in Figure 31, the logical progression of servicing is from south to north, originaƟng at the WWTP. As Segments 1, 2 and 3 are constructed, adjacent lands can be connected and allocated servicing capacity. It is the intent of the Town to construct the necessary wastewater servicing segments (1, 2 and 3) to service the preferred scenario as soon as funding is available. At this Ɵme, growth allocaƟon for each area within the preferred scenario will be considered on a ﬁrst come, ﬁrst serve basis to 2041. This report recommends that a detailed phasing strategy and allocaƟon policy be developed by the Town reﬂecƟng the outcomes of the GMS, as well as other concurrent studies such as the Wastewater Financing OpƟons Study. Erin Hillsburgh Wellington Road 52 Trafalgar Road Wellington Road 22 Main Street Tenth Line Sideroad 17 Sixth Line Shamrock Road Wellington Road 23 Sideroad 15 Fifth Line Wellington Road 124 Si deroad 24 Fourth Line Eighth Line S tation Street Sideroad 10 Sideroad 27 Dundas Street East Ninth Line Area C Area D Area E TOWN OF ERIN GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY PREFERRED GROWTH SCENARIO FIGURE 31 NORTH Scale 1:30,000 [ Map Prepared by: PFM Dillon Consulting Limited Map Checked by: MM Dillon Consulting Limited October 10, 2019 Document Path: G:\GIS\199450 Erin Growth Management Strategy\GIS Data\MXD\20191009 GMS Report Final\Figure 31 - Preferred Growth Scenario.mxd LEGEND Base Mapping Built Boundary Urban Centre / Hamlet Municipal Boundary Defferal Area 2 Future Development Area Potential Wastewater Treatment Plant Site 0 500 1,000 250 Metres Land Supply Preferred Growth Option Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 70 11.1.2 Preferred Growth AllocaƟon Scenario Table 30 summarizes the preferred residenƟal growth allocaƟon scenario for the Town of Erin between Erin Village, Hillsburgh and the remaining rural area. The preferred residenƟal growth allocaƟon is based on the results of the urban land supply and demand analysis provided in SecƟon 7. By 2041, Erin Village and Hillsburgh are forecast to reach a total populaƟon of 7,100 and 3,200 respecƟvely. Between the 2019 and 2041 forecast period, approximately 70% of urban populaƟon growth has been allocated to Erin Village, while the remaining 30% of urban populaƟon growth has been allocated to Hillsburgh. A more detailed populaƟon and housing growth forecast is provided in Appendix D. Table 30: Preferred Growth Allocation Scenario: Population & Housing Forecast by Settlement Area, 2019-2041 Period Erin Village Hillsburgh Rural Total Total Population 1 Total Households Total Population 1 Total Households Total Population 1 Total Households Total Population 1 Total Households 2016 3,100 1,200 1,400 500 7,400 2,500 11,900 4,100 2019 3,100 1,200 1,500 500 7,500 2,500 12,100 4,200 2031 4,500 1,700 2,000 700 7,800 2,700 14,300 5,100 2036 5,600 2,000 2,500 900 8,200 2,800 16,300 5,700 2041 7,100 2,500 3,200 1,100 8,600 2,900 18,900 6,500 2019-2041 4,000 1,300 1,700 600 1,100 400 6,800 2,300 Derived from Wellington County Official Plan (Revisions November 9, 2017) forecast for the Town of Erin by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2019 ¹ Includes Census undercount estimated at approximately 4.1%. Notes: "Rural" includes other non-serviced urban seƩlement areas. (i.e., rural areas); Numbers may not add due to rounding. Table 31 summarizes the preferred non-residenƟal growth allocaƟon scenario for the Town of Erin between Erin Village and Hillsburgh. Similar to the residenƟal allocaƟons, the preferred non-residenƟal residenƟal growth allocaƟon is based on the results of the urban land supply and demand analysis provided in SecƟon 4 and SecƟon 7 of this report. Between the 2019 and 2041 forecast period, all of the Town's forecast growth on employment lands and 70% of the Town's employment growth on Community Lands has been allocated to Erin Village. The remaining 30% of employment growth on Community Lands has been allocated to Hillsburgh. A net increase in employment growth in the Town's rural areas is not anƟcipated over the long-term forecast period. Table 31: Employment Projections Period Employment on Employment Lands Employment on Community Lands Total Employment Town of Erin 2016-2019 20 30 50 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 71 Period Employment on Employment Lands Employment on Community Lands Total Employment 2019-2031 240 370 610 2019-2036 500 800 1,300 2019-2041 510 810 1,320 Erin Village 2016-2019 20 20 40 2019-2031 240 260 500 2019-2036 500 560 1,060 2019-2041 510 570 1,080 Hillsburgh 2016-2019 0 10 10 2019-2031 0 110 110 2019-2036 0 240 240 2019-2041 0 240 240 The incremental housing growth for the period of 2019 to 2041 is 1,76711. Table 32 illustrates that there is suﬃcient capacity in the wastewater system to accommodate development beyond the 2041 forecast if the rate of development should exceed the forecast in determined through this GMS. This provides the Town ﬂexibility to grow beyond the forecast anƟcipated herein. Please refer to the Wastewater Financing OpƟons Study and the UWCS EA for further informaƟon and detail. Table 32: Summary of Wastewater Capacity UCWS EA Capacity12 Total Build-out Capacity (UCWS EA) 6,740 Total Single Family Units (2019) 2,273 Non-residenƟal Growth 2019-Build-out 528 Capacity for Growth 3,939 The Table above demonstrates that the WWTP can accommodate for exisƟng units (2,273) and non- residenƟal growth (528), and service 3,939 new units within the total build-out capacity of the WWTP. 11 Refer to Table 30. Adjusted to single family equivalent households. 12 Refer to the Urban Centre Wastewater Servicing EA and Wastewater Financing Options Study for further detail. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 72 12.0 Recommendations and Next Steps The following secƟon provides the recommended policy direcƟons resulƟng from the Growth Management Strategy and the next steps in facilitaƟng development within the Town of Erin. 12.1 Recommended Official Plan Policy Directions The following policy direcƟons are recommended to implement the outcomes of the Town's Growth Management Strategy. 1. Update the residenƟal growth policies in the OP. SecƟon 2.2.2 outlines the community vision for residenƟal growth for the Town. This secƟon should be updated to reﬂect the updated municipal servicing status and the populaƟon and housing market demand analysis which idenƟﬁed a demand for a broader range of housing types and densiƟes. 2. Update the Growth Strategy policies contained in the OP. SecƟon 2.3 of the Town's OP idenƟﬁes the Growth Strategy for the Town. This secƟon should be updated to include direcƟon regarding how growth will be managed within the Town in conformity with Provincial policy direcƟon and the County's OP. Further, this updated secƟon should outline the 2041 populaƟon, housing and employment forecast for County approval. 3. Strengthen policies related to monitoring and review of growth within the Town. SecƟon 3.5.3 of the OP addresses monitoring of housing and land supply. This secƟon should be updated to allow the Town to monitor and report regularly (term to be conﬁrmed), and modify the Town's growth objecƟves based on actual supply and demand circumstances. 4. Delineate the Built Boundary and establish policies promoƟng intensiﬁcaƟon within the Built Boundary. SecƟon 3.5.5 of the Town's OP references the role of the Built Boundary in supporƟng intensiﬁcaƟon. The OP should be updated to delineate the Built Boundary and clearly deﬁne its role in achieving the intensiﬁcaƟon target of the Town, in accordance with Provincial policy. 5. Update policies related to servicing in the Urban Centres based on the outcomes of servicing studies completed. SecƟon 3.6 of the Town's OP includes the municipal servicing policies. This secƟon, and several other secƟons, should be updated to reﬂect the compleƟon of the Servicing and SeƩlement Master Plan (completed in 2014), the UCWS EA (completed in 2019), and highlight the long-term municipal servicing strategy for the Town's Urban Centres. 6. Strengthen policies related to the requirement of municipal servicing. SecƟon 3.6.3 and 3.6.5 of the OP address servicing requirements and acknowledge that sanitary servicing is not yet available. These policies should be strengthened to require municipal sanitary servicing for new development and redevelopment. 7. Introduce phasing policies and/or a Phasing Plan. Based on the outcomes of this Growth Management Strategy, the Town should develop a wastewater capacity allocaƟon system to coordinate and track the available allocaƟon as new development proceeds and/or exisƟng Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 73 areas are connected to the system. These policies and/or the Phasing Plan should be monitoring and regularly updated to ensure accuracy based on the pace of development. 8. Strengthen language regarding eﬃciency of development. SecƟon 3.6.2 of the OP provides some direcƟon regarding ﬁscal eﬃciency of servicing provision. This language should be strengthened to direct that development eﬃciently uses land, resources and infrastructure. AddiƟonal policies regarding water resource protecƟon and water conservaƟon should be included. The Town may also wish to consider the development of a strategy regarding water conservaƟon and eﬃciency, including detailed criteria and standards to guide future development. 9. Resolve Deferral Area 2. The Town, in consultaƟon with the County, should remove the Deferral (known as Deferral Area 2) in Erin Village. This is required to be addressed in advance of development proceeding in this area. 10. Update guidance on Planning Act applicaƟon submission requirements. AddiƟonal clarity should be established to assist applicants in preparing submission materials in support of a complete applicaƟon. Speciﬁcally, secƟon 5.16 of the OP should be updated to capture a fulsome list of potenƟal supporƟng studies that may be required to form a complete submission, to the saƟsfacƟon of the Town. In addiƟon, the Terms of Reference for a scoped EIS as included in Appendix C herein should be either included as an appendix to the OP or provided to proponents through other means. 11. Develop a "deﬁniƟons" secƟon of the Town of Erin Oﬃcial Plan to provide clarity on the applicaƟon of terms. The Town Oﬃcial Plan does not currently idenƟfy any deﬁniƟons. A new secƟon should be added to the OP to include deﬁniƟons for terms such as Built Boundary, Urban Centre, development, intensiﬁcaƟon, Greenﬁeld Area, etc. The inclusion of deﬁniƟons in an OP document provides clarity regarding the intent of key terms and is considered good pracƟce. 12. Consider the development of Community Design and/or Streetscape Guidelines. The Town should idenƟfy policies in the OP to establish the need to undertake a community design and/or streetscape guidelines to inform the preparaƟon of development proposals and ensure built form and character of the town is preserved. 13. Consider the development of architectural guidelines and/or architectural control. The Town should idenƟfy policies in the OP to establish the need to undertake architecture guidelines and consider appropriate architectural controls. 14. Conduct an Oﬃcial Plan Review to address Provincial and County policy conformity. Several new Provincial policies have been introduced since the adopƟon of the Town's Oﬃcial Plan. In addiƟon to the policy direcƟons noted herein, a fulsome review of the OP should be undertaken to conﬁrm conformity with Provincial and County policies. 12.2 Next Steps As a result of this growth management planning process, as well as the related studies led by the Town, an Oﬃcial Plan Amendment should be iniƟated by the Town to align the OP with the outcomes idenƟﬁed through these studies. Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 74 The availability of municipal servicing sets the Town up for growth in a way that has not been experienced to date. There are some key studies that the Town should consider undertaking to strengthen the foundaƟon for a smooth development review and approvals process. Speciﬁcally, this may include the establishment of Community Design and/or Streetscape Guidelines, and a list of background studies that may be required to support a complete applicaƟon. Further, both residents and the development community should be aware of the updated Development Charges applicable to future development and how growth is funded (this study is underway). As noted above, it is recommended that the Town's long-term populaƟon growth is regularly monitored and updated in accordance with the review of the Wellington County and Town of Erin Oﬃcial Plans. In addiƟon to this policy lens, ongoing public educaƟon and engagement is recommended to ensure a common understanding of the growth landscape within the Town's two Urban Centres, and building an understanding of the development review and approvals process. The Town may also wish to explore the implicaƟons of the addiƟonal development acƟvity including the necessary staﬃng complement (e.g., planning and engineering experƟse), and appropriate applicaƟon and review fees to account for the eﬀort involved. Appendix A Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy October 2019 | 19-9450 A Community Growth Survey Results 43.42% 122 11.74% 33 8.54% 24 30.96% 87 5.34% 15 Q1 Where in the Town of Erin do you live? Answered: 281 Skipped: 3 TOTAL 281 # OUTSIDE OF ERIN (PLEASE SPECIFY) DATE 1 Port Elgin 6/21/2019 2:17 PM 2 Just outside of town. 6/20/2019 7:56 PM 3 Belfountain 6/20/2019 3:40 PM 4 Northern Ontario 6/16/2019 5:19 PM 5 Guelph Eramosa 6/13/2019 9:11 PM 6 RR 1 6/13/2019 3:12 PM 7 Oakville - I work for an Erin landowner 6/13/2019 8:54 AM 8 4PM has 8tydti9y7 an7t74886858666d I 77inches u7998co8 t87 6/12/2019 5:46 PM 9 Belfountain 6/11/2019 9:18 PM 10 Brisbane 6/11/2019 7:28 PM 11 Rural caledon 6/11/2019 2:52 PM 12 Trafalgar Road, between Brisbane and Hillsburgh. 6/11/2019 12:15 PM 13 Live in Fergus, volunteer in Erin 6/10/2019 8:54 AM Erin Village Hillsburgh Other Hamlet (Orton, Ceda... Rural area Outside of Erin (please... 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ANSWER CHOICES RESPONSES Erin Village Hillsburgh Other Hamlet (Orton, Cedar Valley, Brisbane, Ospringe, Ballinafad, Crewsons Corners) Rural area Outside of Erin (please specify) 1 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 14 Brampton 6/8/2019 2:59 PM 15 Fergus 6/8/2019 1:24 PM 2 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 34.88% 98 15.30% 43 11.03% 31 8.90% 25 27.40% 77 2.49% 7 Q2 How long have you lived in Erin? Answered: 281 Skipped: 3 TOTAL 281 0-5 years 5-10 years 10-15 years 15-20 years 20+ years Not applicable (e.g., I wor... 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ANSWER CHOICES RESPONSES 0-5 years 5-10 years 10-15 years 15-20 years 20+ years Not applicable (e.g., I work in Erin and live elsewhere) 3 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 16.73% 47 27.76% 78 28.47% 80 18.51% 52 8.54% 24 Q3 How do you feel about the prospect of growth in the Town of Erin? Please choose one. Answered: 281 Skipped: 3 TOTAL 281 Very happy Happy Neutral Unhappy Very unhappy 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ANSWER CHOICES RESPONSES Very happy Happy Neutral Unhappy Very unhappy 4 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 56 13,911 250 Q4 Based on the provincial growth targets, the majority of this growth is expected to be accommodated within the built-up areas of Hillsburgh and Erin. Based on this, how should future residential growth be distributed? Answered: 250 Skipped: 34 Total Respondents: 250 # DATE 1 57 6/21/2019 10:03 AM 2 49 6/21/2019 7:50 AM 3 0 6/21/2019 6:15 AM 4 34 6/21/2019 6:09 AM 5 52 6/21/2019 6:05 AM 6 53 6/20/2019 11:25 PM 7 50 6/20/2019 11:10 PM 8 100 6/20/2019 11:07 PM 9 82 6/20/2019 9:35 PM 10 93 6/20/2019 8:11 PM 11 51 6/20/2019 7:58 PM 12 49 6/20/2019 7:16 PM 13 100 6/20/2019 6:29 PM 14 69 6/20/2019 6:16 PM 15 66 6/20/2019 5:59 PM 16 52 6/20/2019 5:26 PM 17 53 6/20/2019 5:11 PM 18 30 6/20/2019 4:43 PM 19 37 6/20/2019 4:11 PM 20 51 6/20/2019 3:44 PM 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 ANSWER CHOICES AVERAGE NUMBER TOTAL NUMBER RESPONSES 5 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 21 56 6/20/2019 3:35 PM 22 52 6/20/2019 3:35 PM 23 51 6/20/2019 3:30 PM 24 89 6/20/2019 3:14 PM 25 33 6/20/2019 2:53 PM 26 50 6/20/2019 2:48 PM 27 85 6/20/2019 2:47 PM 28 16 6/20/2019 2:40 PM 29 33 6/19/2019 7:19 PM 30 50 6/19/2019 8:47 AM 31 61 6/17/2019 7:10 PM 32 29 6/17/2019 10:56 AM 33 50 6/17/2019 5:16 AM 34 70 6/16/2019 7:09 PM 35 60 6/16/2019 5:21 PM 36 51 6/15/2019 8:23 PM 37 49 6/15/2019 1:31 PM 38 89 6/15/2019 1:13 PM 39 51 6/15/2019 12:54 PM 40 74 6/15/2019 9:34 AM 41 51 6/15/2019 9:33 AM 42 45 6/15/2019 8:31 AM 43 53 6/15/2019 8:07 AM 44 100 6/15/2019 6:40 AM 45 52 6/14/2019 8:15 PM 46 72 6/14/2019 6:49 PM 47 49 6/14/2019 12:59 PM 48 33 6/14/2019 12:48 PM 49 51 6/14/2019 10:11 AM 50 8 6/14/2019 10:06 AM 51 50 6/14/2019 8:13 AM 52 74 6/13/2019 9:15 PM 53 58 6/13/2019 8:47 PM 54 49 6/13/2019 3:38 PM 55 50 6/13/2019 1:23 PM 56 51 6/13/2019 12:47 PM 57 49 6/13/2019 12:33 PM 58 74 6/13/2019 11:27 AM 59 49 6/13/2019 10:35 AM 60 51 6/13/2019 10:23 AM 61 62 6/13/2019 9:16 AM 6 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 62 50 6/13/2019 9:07 AM 63 78 6/13/2019 8:57 AM 64 92 6/13/2019 8:56 AM 65 49 6/13/2019 8:29 AM 66 49 6/13/2019 8:23 AM 67 63 6/13/2019 8:02 AM 68 51 6/12/2019 7:56 PM 69 51 6/12/2019 5:30 PM 70 69 6/12/2019 5:26 PM 71 64 6/12/2019 4:43 PM 72 62 6/12/2019 3:32 PM 73 50 6/12/2019 2:41 PM 74 50 6/12/2019 11:12 AM 75 0 6/12/2019 10:22 AM 76 50 6/12/2019 9:57 AM 77 50 6/12/2019 9:44 AM 78 50 6/12/2019 8:45 AM 79 50 6/12/2019 8:25 AM 80 51 6/12/2019 8:18 AM 81 50 6/12/2019 8:15 AM 82 92 6/12/2019 8:09 AM 83 100 6/12/2019 7:42 AM 84 51 6/12/2019 7:31 AM 85 100 6/12/2019 7:30 AM 86 51 6/12/2019 7:07 AM 87 100 6/12/2019 7:01 AM 88 48 6/12/2019 6:54 AM 89 2 6/12/2019 6:34 AM 90 59 6/12/2019 6:25 AM 91 51 6/12/2019 6:06 AM 92 50 6/12/2019 5:47 AM 93 50 6/12/2019 4:54 AM 94 53 6/12/2019 4:36 AM 95 56 6/12/2019 1:38 AM 96 30 6/12/2019 12:13 AM 97 50 6/11/2019 11:26 PM 98 48 6/11/2019 10:21 PM 99 49 6/11/2019 9:57 PM 100 51 6/11/2019 9:49 PM 101 46 6/11/2019 9:28 PM 102 29 6/11/2019 9:19 PM 7 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 103 53 6/11/2019 9:09 PM 104 64 6/11/2019 9:07 PM 105 72 6/11/2019 8:59 PM 106 50 6/11/2019 8:22 PM 107 50 6/11/2019 8:15 PM 108 51 6/11/2019 8:02 PM 109 50 6/11/2019 7:53 PM 110 50 6/11/2019 7:33 PM 111 49 6/11/2019 7:20 PM 112 63 6/11/2019 7:14 PM 113 50 6/11/2019 6:55 PM 114 52 6/11/2019 6:25 PM 115 31 6/11/2019 6:15 PM 116 51 6/11/2019 6:04 PM 117 80 6/11/2019 6:04 PM 118 51 6/11/2019 5:59 PM 119 50 6/11/2019 5:41 PM 120 29 6/11/2019 5:31 PM 121 74 6/11/2019 4:59 PM 122 50 6/11/2019 4:55 PM 123 50 6/11/2019 4:53 PM 124 0 6/11/2019 4:46 PM 125 52 6/11/2019 4:44 PM 126 83 6/11/2019 4:41 PM 127 74 6/11/2019 4:33 PM 128 51 6/11/2019 4:02 PM 129 67 6/11/2019 3:57 PM 130 20 6/11/2019 3:51 PM 131 50 6/11/2019 3:39 PM 132 50 6/11/2019 3:32 PM 133 92 6/11/2019 3:27 PM 134 49 6/11/2019 3:22 PM 135 65 6/11/2019 3:17 PM 136 51 6/11/2019 3:07 PM 137 51 6/11/2019 2:59 PM 138 47 6/11/2019 2:48 PM 139 100 6/11/2019 2:46 PM 140 50 6/11/2019 2:41 PM 141 48 6/11/2019 2:40 PM 142 53 6/11/2019 2:39 PM 143 76 6/11/2019 2:36 PM 8 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 144 48 6/11/2019 2:29 PM 145 57 6/11/2019 2:23 PM 146 100 6/11/2019 2:20 PM 147 50 6/11/2019 2:11 PM 148 49 6/11/2019 2:06 PM 149 41 6/11/2019 2:06 PM 150 63 6/11/2019 2:01 PM 151 78 6/11/2019 1:59 PM 152 51 6/11/2019 1:55 PM 153 52 6/11/2019 1:51 PM 154 51 6/11/2019 1:49 PM 155 64 6/11/2019 1:42 PM 156 50 6/11/2019 1:40 PM 157 74 6/11/2019 1:39 PM 158 52 6/11/2019 1:38 PM 159 50 6/11/2019 1:36 PM 160 34 6/11/2019 1:26 PM 161 50 6/11/2019 1:20 PM 162 49 6/11/2019 1:20 PM 163 67 6/11/2019 1:18 PM 164 55 6/11/2019 1:17 PM 165 28 6/11/2019 1:13 PM 166 61 6/11/2019 1:11 PM 167 65 6/11/2019 1:04 PM 168 51 6/11/2019 1:01 PM 169 50 6/11/2019 1:01 PM 170 50 6/11/2019 1:00 PM 171 51 6/11/2019 12:57 PM 172 48 6/11/2019 12:55 PM 173 93 6/11/2019 12:53 PM 174 52 6/11/2019 12:51 PM 175 50 6/11/2019 12:49 PM 176 51 6/11/2019 12:48 PM 177 50 6/11/2019 12:48 PM 178 47 6/11/2019 12:46 PM 179 51 6/11/2019 12:46 PM 180 50 6/11/2019 12:45 PM 181 49 6/11/2019 12:39 PM 182 53 6/11/2019 12:37 PM 183 74 6/11/2019 12:35 PM 184 89 6/11/2019 12:34 PM 9 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 185 50 6/11/2019 12:30 PM 186 52 6/11/2019 12:28 PM 187 8 6/11/2019 12:20 PM 188 85 6/11/2019 12:19 PM 189 100 6/11/2019 12:17 PM 190 52 6/11/2019 12:17 PM 191 48 6/11/2019 12:16 PM 192 49 6/11/2019 12:15 PM 193 51 6/11/2019 12:14 PM 194 50 6/11/2019 12:14 PM 195 100 6/11/2019 12:13 PM 196 53 6/11/2019 12:13 PM 197 99 6/11/2019 12:12 PM 198 41 6/11/2019 12:11 PM 199 99 6/11/2019 12:09 PM 200 75 6/11/2019 12:09 PM 201 42 6/11/2019 12:09 PM 202 49 6/11/2019 12:07 PM 203 50 6/11/2019 12:06 PM 204 50 6/11/2019 12:05 PM 205 50 6/11/2019 12:05 PM 206 70 6/11/2019 12:05 PM 207 50 6/11/2019 12:05 PM 208 71 6/11/2019 12:04 PM 209 100 6/11/2019 12:04 PM 210 100 6/11/2019 12:03 PM 211 75 6/10/2019 8:54 AM 212 51 6/10/2019 8:51 AM 213 52 6/8/2019 3:52 PM 214 95 6/8/2019 3:02 PM 215 51 6/8/2019 2:40 PM 216 52 6/8/2019 2:27 PM 217 84 6/8/2019 1:38 PM 218 52 6/8/2019 1:27 PM 219 49 6/8/2019 1:13 PM 220 52 6/8/2019 1:02 PM 221 55 6/8/2019 12:54 PM 222 48 6/8/2019 12:46 PM 223 53 6/8/2019 12:35 PM 224 15 6/8/2019 12:29 PM 225 49 6/7/2019 10:44 AM 10 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 226 50 6/3/2019 10:24 AM 227 40 5/31/2019 1:32 AM 228 48 5/30/2019 10:37 PM 229 51 5/30/2019 10:08 PM 230 49 5/29/2019 6:25 PM 231 50 5/29/2019 3:54 PM 232 55 5/29/2019 12:46 PM 233 50 5/28/2019 10:38 AM 234 50 5/28/2019 8:46 AM 235 100 5/27/2019 10:32 PM 236 56 5/27/2019 8:54 PM 237 50 5/27/2019 8:18 PM 238 48 5/26/2019 4:35 AM 239 61 5/25/2019 9:36 PM 240 7 5/25/2019 5:49 PM 241 0 5/25/2019 3:23 PM 242 51 5/25/2019 2:18 PM 243 76 5/25/2019 1:39 PM 244 47 5/25/2019 12:05 PM 245 54 5/25/2019 11:33 AM 246 93 5/25/2019 10:37 AM 247 76 5/25/2019 10:24 AM 248 49 5/25/2019 9:43 AM 249 10 5/25/2019 9:39 AM 250 63 5/22/2019 4:20 PM 11 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 63 15,841 253 Q5 Where do you think future employment areas should be distributed between Hillsburgh and Erin? Answered: 253 Skipped: 31 Total Respondents: 253 # DATE 1 93 6/21/2019 10:03 AM 2 49 6/21/2019 7:50 AM 3 56 6/21/2019 6:09 AM 4 64 6/21/2019 6:05 AM 5 100 6/20/2019 11:25 PM 6 51 6/20/2019 11:10 PM 7 24 6/20/2019 11:07 PM 8 91 6/20/2019 9:35 PM 9 49 6/20/2019 8:11 PM 10 51 6/20/2019 7:58 PM 11 66 6/20/2019 7:16 PM 12 100 6/20/2019 6:29 PM 13 67 6/20/2019 6:16 PM 14 67 6/20/2019 5:59 PM 15 54 6/20/2019 5:26 PM 16 77 6/20/2019 5:11 PM 17 31 6/20/2019 4:43 PM 18 51 6/20/2019 4:11 PM 19 52 6/20/2019 3:44 PM 20 50 6/20/2019 3:35 PM 21 51 6/20/2019 3:35 PM 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 ANSWER CHOICES AVERAGE NUMBER TOTAL NUMBER RESPONSES 12 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 22 51 6/20/2019 3:30 PM 23 59 6/20/2019 3:27 PM 24 52 6/20/2019 3:14 PM 25 50 6/20/2019 2:53 PM 26 50 6/20/2019 2:48 PM 27 91 6/20/2019 2:47 PM 28 13 6/20/2019 2:40 PM 29 28 6/19/2019 7:19 PM 30 73 6/19/2019 8:47 AM 31 69 6/17/2019 7:10 PM 32 45 6/17/2019 10:56 AM 33 50 6/17/2019 5:16 AM 34 88 6/16/2019 7:09 PM 35 60 6/16/2019 5:21 PM 36 93 6/15/2019 8:23 PM 37 53 6/15/2019 1:31 PM 38 51 6/15/2019 1:13 PM 39 91 6/15/2019 12:54 PM 40 70 6/15/2019 9:34 AM 41 51 6/15/2019 9:33 AM 42 48 6/15/2019 8:31 AM 43 52 6/15/2019 8:07 AM 44 100 6/15/2019 6:40 AM 45 52 6/14/2019 8:15 PM 46 72 6/14/2019 6:49 PM 47 82 6/14/2019 12:59 PM 48 68 6/14/2019 12:48 PM 49 51 6/14/2019 10:11 AM 50 8 6/14/2019 10:06 AM 51 90 6/14/2019 8:13 AM 52 76 6/13/2019 9:15 PM 53 88 6/13/2019 8:47 PM 54 92 6/13/2019 3:38 PM 55 53 6/13/2019 1:23 PM 56 61 6/13/2019 12:47 PM 57 94 6/13/2019 12:33 PM 58 76 6/13/2019 11:27 AM 59 50 6/13/2019 10:35 AM 60 50 6/13/2019 10:23 AM 61 83 6/13/2019 9:16 AM 62 94 6/13/2019 9:07 AM 13 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 63 78 6/13/2019 8:57 AM 64 56 6/13/2019 8:56 AM 65 100 6/13/2019 8:29 AM 66 50 6/13/2019 8:23 AM 67 64 6/13/2019 8:02 AM 68 51 6/13/2019 6:37 AM 69 50 6/12/2019 7:56 PM 70 69 6/12/2019 5:30 PM 71 87 6/12/2019 5:26 PM 72 65 6/12/2019 4:43 PM 73 63 6/12/2019 3:32 PM 74 99 6/12/2019 2:41 PM 75 50 6/12/2019 11:12 AM 76 0 6/12/2019 10:22 AM 77 50 6/12/2019 9:57 AM 78 51 6/12/2019 9:44 AM 79 95 6/12/2019 8:45 AM 80 50 6/12/2019 8:25 AM 81 56 6/12/2019 8:18 AM 82 100 6/12/2019 8:15 AM 83 54 6/12/2019 8:09 AM 84 100 6/12/2019 7:42 AM 85 50 6/12/2019 7:31 AM 86 100 6/12/2019 7:30 AM 87 51 6/12/2019 7:07 AM 88 100 6/12/2019 7:01 AM 89 48 6/12/2019 6:54 AM 90 6 6/12/2019 6:34 AM 91 60 6/12/2019 6:25 AM 92 64 6/12/2019 6:06 AM 93 82 6/12/2019 5:47 AM 94 50 6/12/2019 4:54 AM 95 51 6/12/2019 4:36 AM 96 74 6/12/2019 1:38 AM 97 28 6/12/2019 12:13 AM 98 47 6/11/2019 11:26 PM 99 50 6/11/2019 10:29 PM 100 48 6/11/2019 10:21 PM 101 47 6/11/2019 9:57 PM 102 50 6/11/2019 9:49 PM 103 54 6/11/2019 9:28 PM 14 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 104 28 6/11/2019 9:19 PM 105 52 6/11/2019 9:09 PM 106 62 6/11/2019 9:07 PM 107 50 6/11/2019 8:59 PM 108 54 6/11/2019 8:22 PM 109 46 6/11/2019 8:15 PM 110 94 6/11/2019 8:02 PM 111 51 6/11/2019 7:53 PM 112 70 6/11/2019 7:33 PM 113 62 6/11/2019 7:20 PM 114 100 6/11/2019 7:14 PM 115 50 6/11/2019 6:55 PM 116 55 6/11/2019 6:25 PM 117 50 6/11/2019 6:15 PM 118 53 6/11/2019 6:04 PM 119 81 6/11/2019 6:04 PM 120 51 6/11/2019 5:59 PM 121 50 6/11/2019 5:41 PM 122 52 6/11/2019 5:31 PM 123 89 6/11/2019 4:59 PM 124 50 6/11/2019 4:55 PM 125 97 6/11/2019 4:53 PM 126 0 6/11/2019 4:46 PM 127 54 6/11/2019 4:44 PM 128 85 6/11/2019 4:41 PM 129 50 6/11/2019 4:33 PM 130 54 6/11/2019 4:02 PM 131 69 6/11/2019 3:57 PM 132 23 6/11/2019 3:51 PM 133 49 6/11/2019 3:39 PM 134 50 6/11/2019 3:32 PM 135 95 6/11/2019 3:27 PM 136 49 6/11/2019 3:22 PM 137 62 6/11/2019 3:17 PM 138 51 6/11/2019 3:07 PM 139 51 6/11/2019 2:59 PM 140 52 6/11/2019 2:48 PM 141 98 6/11/2019 2:46 PM 142 50 6/11/2019 2:41 PM 143 45 6/11/2019 2:40 PM 144 50 6/11/2019 2:39 PM 15 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 145 48 6/11/2019 2:29 PM 146 53 6/11/2019 2:23 PM 147 100 6/11/2019 2:20 PM 148 55 6/11/2019 2:18 PM 149 94 6/11/2019 2:11 PM 150 51 6/11/2019 2:06 PM 151 57 6/11/2019 2:01 PM 152 77 6/11/2019 1:59 PM 153 59 6/11/2019 1:55 PM 154 61 6/11/2019 1:51 PM 155 50 6/11/2019 1:49 PM 156 67 6/11/2019 1:42 PM 157 87 6/11/2019 1:40 PM 158 59 6/11/2019 1:39 PM 159 92 6/11/2019 1:38 PM 160 51 6/11/2019 1:36 PM 161 48 6/11/2019 1:26 PM 162 94 6/11/2019 1:20 PM 163 51 6/11/2019 1:20 PM 164 67 6/11/2019 1:18 PM 165 56 6/11/2019 1:17 PM 166 53 6/11/2019 1:13 PM 167 63 6/11/2019 1:11 PM 168 66 6/11/2019 1:04 PM 169 53 6/11/2019 1:01 PM 170 67 6/11/2019 1:01 PM 171 50 6/11/2019 1:00 PM 172 52 6/11/2019 12:57 PM 173 86 6/11/2019 12:55 PM 174 95 6/11/2019 12:53 PM 175 92 6/11/2019 12:51 PM 176 91 6/11/2019 12:50 PM 177 59 6/11/2019 12:49 PM 178 53 6/11/2019 12:48 PM 179 51 6/11/2019 12:48 PM 180 52 6/11/2019 12:46 PM 181 99 6/11/2019 12:46 PM 182 68 6/11/2019 12:45 PM 183 49 6/11/2019 12:39 PM 184 54 6/11/2019 12:37 PM 185 54 6/11/2019 12:35 PM 16 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 186 92 6/11/2019 12:34 PM 187 92 6/11/2019 12:30 PM 188 85 6/11/2019 12:28 PM 189 50 6/11/2019 12:20 PM 190 85 6/11/2019 12:19 PM 191 100 6/11/2019 12:17 PM 192 68 6/11/2019 12:17 PM 193 50 6/11/2019 12:16 PM 194 49 6/11/2019 12:15 PM 195 95 6/11/2019 12:14 PM 196 87 6/11/2019 12:14 PM 197 100 6/11/2019 12:13 PM 198 59 6/11/2019 12:13 PM 199 100 6/11/2019 12:12 PM 200 59 6/11/2019 12:11 PM 201 55 6/11/2019 12:09 PM 202 79 6/11/2019 12:09 PM 203 58 6/11/2019 12:09 PM 204 50 6/11/2019 12:07 PM 205 80 6/11/2019 12:06 PM 206 50 6/11/2019 12:05 PM 207 52 6/11/2019 12:05 PM 208 62 6/11/2019 12:05 PM 209 75 6/11/2019 12:05 PM 210 50 6/11/2019 12:04 PM 211 100 6/11/2019 12:04 PM 212 53 6/11/2019 12:03 PM 213 75 6/10/2019 8:54 AM 214 50 6/10/2019 8:51 AM 215 100 6/8/2019 3:52 PM 216 51 6/8/2019 3:02 PM 217 49 6/8/2019 2:40 PM 218 55 6/8/2019 2:27 PM 219 76 6/8/2019 1:38 PM 220 52 6/8/2019 1:27 PM 221 47 6/8/2019 1:13 PM 222 50 6/8/2019 1:02 PM 223 57 6/8/2019 12:54 PM 224 52 6/8/2019 12:46 PM 225 55 6/8/2019 12:35 PM 226 51 6/8/2019 12:29 PM 17 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 227 54 6/7/2019 10:44 AM 228 50 6/3/2019 10:24 AM 229 57 5/31/2019 1:32 AM 230 51 5/30/2019 10:37 PM 231 53 5/30/2019 10:08 PM 232 69 5/29/2019 6:25 PM 233 51 5/29/2019 3:54 PM 234 56 5/29/2019 12:46 PM 235 40 5/28/2019 9:58 PM 236 50 5/28/2019 10:38 AM 237 50 5/28/2019 8:46 AM 238 100 5/27/2019 10:32 PM 239 100 5/27/2019 8:54 PM 240 99 5/27/2019 8:18 PM 241 50 5/26/2019 4:35 AM 242 63 5/25/2019 9:36 PM 243 53 5/25/2019 5:49 PM 244 1 5/25/2019 3:23 PM 245 59 5/25/2019 2:18 PM 246 76 5/25/2019 1:39 PM 247 51 5/25/2019 12:05 PM 248 51 5/25/2019 11:33 AM 249 94 5/25/2019 10:37 AM 250 76 5/25/2019 10:24 AM 251 49 5/25/2019 9:43 AM 252 32 5/25/2019 9:39 AM 253 63 5/22/2019 4:20 PM 18 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy Q6 Growth can be accommodated in several ways, such as developing large parcels of vacant lands, or individual smaller sites within urban centres (Erin and Hillsburgh). Keeping in mind that the Town already has policies in place to guide development, such as compatibility with existing neighbourhood character, what is your preference for future development based on the options below? Please rank the following development options from most desirable to least desirable, from your perspective. Answered: 254 Skipped: 30 45.90% 112 24.59% 60 29.51% 72 244 2.16 25.51% 63 62.75% 155 11.74% 29 247 2.14 29.48% 74 13.15% 33 57.37% 144 251 1.72 Redevelopment of existing... Development of individual... Development of large vacant... 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 TOTAL SCORE Redevelopment of existing (typically small) sites within the urban centres Development of individual (typically small) vacant sites within the urban centres Development of large vacant parcels that are next to existing development 19 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 82.63% 214 44.02% 114 39.38% 102 39.77% 103 3.86% 10 4.63% 12 23.55% 61 9.27% 24 Q7 What forms of new housing do you feel are most appropriate in the Town of Erin? Check all that apply: Answered: 259 Skipped: 25 Total Respondents: 259 # OTHER (PLEASE DESCRIBE) DATE 1 Seniors housing 6/20/2019 5:59 PM 2 Senior living centre 6/20/2019 3:14 PM 3 Combination of different homes 6/20/2019 2:48 PM 4 mobile and Tiny homes would bean excellent answer to housing seniors and starter homes 6/15/2019 8:23 PM Single-detached house Duplex or semi-detache... Row house or Townhouse Apartment or condominium ... Apartment or condominium... Mobile homes "Tiny Homes" (a residenti... Other (please describe) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ANSWER CHOICES RESPONSES Single-detached house Duplex or semi-detached house Row house or Townhouse Apartment or condominium (up to 3 stories) Apartment or condominium (greater than 3 stories) Mobile homes "Tiny Homes" (a residential structure under 400 sq. ft) Other (please describe) 20 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 5 Senior living 6/15/2019 9:33 AM 6 Apartments above commercial to keep downtown vibrant 6/13/2019 9:15 PM 7 Need for affordable housing so young people (such as those who graduate from EDHS) and seniors can afford to live in Erin. 6/13/2019 12:47 PM 8 Senior Housing 6/13/2019 12:33 PM 9 granny flats 6/13/2019 11:27 AM 10 To attract people to develop an employable demographic it will be necessary to have "affordable" housing such as "starter homes". You must also keep in mind that every home WILL require driveways that can accommodate at least 2 good size vehicles (ie - a family van and a pick up truck.) You must also, have adequate parking for visitors as well as a place to pile snow. This would be best described a the old style storey and a half design of house. To provide for a proper septic tank and bed the front of the home should be allocated for this purpose.. 6/12/2019 4:43 PM 11 Co-housing for Seniors 6/11/2019 4:53 PM 12 Retirement Residences, Small Starter Homes 6/11/2019 3:27 PM 13 1200 sq ft homes 6/11/2019 2:40 PM 14 I would encourage the Town to consider co-housing or other forms of co-operative housing. These types of housing have multiple benefits, including affordability, facilitation of shared resources, low environmental footprint from development and resource sharing, and aiding a transition to a low carbon future. 6/11/2019 2:06 PM 15 Affordable homes to keep young people in the area 6/11/2019 1:13 PM 16 We need a combination of all the above. We need to bring affordable housing to greater Erin to allow our youth to remain in a the area as they "leave the nest". Fourier we need to allow the elderly to retire in Erin as well. As we grow our industrial base we need our workers to live where they work. 6/11/2019 12:16 PM 17 Homes suitable for people downsizing. Retirement community 6/11/2019 12:12 PM 18 Maximum density housing using the least land is most appropriate 6/11/2019 12:04 PM 19 Seniors 6/10/2019 8:51 AM 20 Retirement homes 6/8/2019 3:02 PM 21 Subsidized housing for low income families 6/8/2019 1:27 PM 22 Shouldn't be my discision. If it were it would be affordable housing. Shocked that isn't an option. 6/3/2019 10:24 AM 23 no to high density residential developing 5/28/2019 8:46 AM 24 Modular community 55+ like the one in Belwood http://www.pinemeadows.ca/ 5/25/2019 1:39 PM 21 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 24.32% 63 67.18% 174 54.44% 141 57.53% 149 4.25% 11 Q8 Where do you feel it is most appropriate to focus new employment uses in the Town of Erin? Check all that apply: Answered: 259 Skipped: 25 Total Respondents: 259 # OTHER (PLEASE DESCRIBE) DATE 1 new business in the rural area is also very appropriate. 6/15/2019 9:34 AM 2 What are new employment uses?Need to define to answer question. Using planning terms average citizen will not understand. 6/13/2019 12:47 PM 3 all of the above 6/13/2019 10:23 AM 4 I'm not sure what is meant by "new employment uses". This is a very poorly worded question. Retail should be focused on downtown main streets, offices should be in business parks, and factories in industrial areas. 6/12/2019 8:09 AM 5 rural/agricultural/environmental in nature, use existing industrial space only and focus on clean industries 6/12/2019 6:06 AM 6 Industrial area at the north end of town 6/11/2019 6:04 PM 7 Mixed with residential to facilitate walkable communities. 6/11/2019 2:06 PM 8 professional health, research & development think tanks, etc. maybe ask residents where they are employed/underemployed. look at what talent is here and utilize it 6/11/2019 1:26 PM 9 I don't understand the question. 6/11/2019 12:03 PM Highway Commercial Downtown Main Streets (i.e... Industrial Areas Business Parks Other (please describe) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ANSWER CHOICES RESPONSES Highway Commercial Downtown Main Streets (i.e., Central Business Districts) Industrial Areas Business Parks Other (please describe) 22 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 10 Rural on farm companies need to be given more flexibility to expand in order to grow. Maybe a tax and development fee between farm and commercial...? Get creative and thrive with a more rural vibe is my thought. 5/25/2019 1:39 PM 11 Erin is beautiful and nature is what most value the town, taking it out of this feel will be an absolute mistake, you can see modern homes and over popularity in all other towns and they all have lost the country feels which made just like other big towns which no one likes. Protecting our identity of who we are will definitely creat great feel and will attract more and more people. Log homes is best picture instead of monster modern homes, small apartments building and mobile home parks that affordable for everyone will make our foundation of employees living and tourists. Moving built out skirt on Trafalgar will between Brisbane and hillsbourgh will creat life to serve the town will and expand the size and will be easier move to attract more people faster than original plan. Baby steps to bring home owners to where you want them to be. That also quick fix to your financial trouble at the town as more sites will creat more land taxes per year and more business growth. Think logic and built proper foundation to carry on with bigger plans. 5/25/2019 10:37 AM 23 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 28.00% 70 22.00% 55 38.00% 95 37.60% 94 42.40% 106 8.40% 21 48.80% 122 29.20% 73 Q9 The Town of Erin is developing decision making criteria to help evaluate different options for how we grow. Please select your top 4 most important criteria: Answered: 250 Skipped: 34 Transportation Networks and... Active Transportati... Housing Options,... Economic Viability, J... Minimize Impacts to... Minimize Impacts to... Protection of Prime... Fiscal Responsibility Efficient Water/Wastew... Community Amenities... Preservation of the Natur... 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ANSWER CHOICES RESPONSES Transportation Networks and Road Capacity Active Transportation (e.g., walking, cycling, etc.) Housing Options, Affordability Economic Viability, Job Creation Minimize Impacts to Existing Residential Minimize Impacts to Existing Business Protection of Prime Agricultural Areas Fiscal Responsibility 24 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 47.20% 118 26.00% 65 65.60% 164 Total Respondents: 250 Efficient Water/Wastewater Infrastructure Community Amenities (e.g., libraries, public services, etc.) Preservation of the Natural Environment 25 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 99.15% 116 76.92% 90 57.26% 67 42.74% 50 28.21% 33 Q10 In addition to the potential decision making criteria listed above, are there any additional criteria that you feel should be used to decide on the best growth options? Enter up to five additional key themes that should be considered. Please limit each response to 200 characters or less. Answered: 117 Skipped: 167 # 1. DATE 1 Environmental responsibility 6/21/2019 7:52 AM 2 Splash park 6/20/2019 11:28 PM 3 Tourism/Promotion 6/20/2019 8:16 PM 4 Parks with more amenities 6/20/2019 8:03 PM 5 Public swimming pool 6/20/2019 6:13 PM 6 Recreational facilities 6/20/2019 6:06 PM 7 No increase to taxes !! 6/20/2019 4:13 PM 8 Preserve water and environme 6/20/2019 3:58 PM 9 Keeping country rural character and charm 6/20/2019 3:34 PM 10 Preserving the character of a small town. 6/19/2019 7:37 PM 11 projects that include green technology in their building 6/19/2019 8:50 AM 12 Draws for young families - schooling, affordable housing, daycare 6/17/2019 7:12 PM 13 Small town vibe 6/17/2019 11:01 AM 14 infrastructure - water, waste treatment, hydro, roads, public transit 6/15/2019 8:34 PM 15 New development designed to retain natural environment look & trees. 6/15/2019 1:03 PM 16 housing for seniors 6/15/2019 9:39 AM 17 Preserving small town downtown 6/15/2019 8:39 AM 18 MUST maintain small town charm and country feel of entire area 6/15/2019 8:31 AM 19 Ensure the downtown's of both Erin and Hillsburgh are vibrant 6/14/2019 12:56 PM 20 No cookie-cutter monster-homes. Keep the new homes varied in size/shape/type. Don't develop sub-divisions that are closed and where all the houses look the same. 6/14/2019 10:17 AM 21 Manage increasing property taxes 6/14/2019 10:13 AM 22 would like to see a bypass for heavy traffic for both villages 6/13/2019 3:45 PM 23 Preserve the CHARM of Erin and the current lifestyle, not turning us into urban sprawl with no character. We want to remain a rural community with agriculture. 6/13/2019 1:27 PM ANSWER CHOICES RESPONSES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 26 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 24 Building practices that are in line with the needs of the future - ie. sustainability - can we look to build homes that are more passive solar/reuse of grey water systems/etc. 6/13/2019 12:49 PM 25 climate change - to be used as a lens to consider the sustainability of all development. 6/13/2019 11:35 AM 26 compatible or sympathetic housing designs or styles 6/13/2019 9:20 AM 27 Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change 6/13/2019 9:13 AM 28 Highway bypass for trucks out of downtown 6/13/2019 6:40 AM 29 promote "green" solutions; sustainability 6/12/2019 5:35 PM 30 keep the business area concentrated for walkability. 6/12/2019 5:30 PM 31 Emergency response 6/12/2019 3:37 PM 32 Plans for Climate Change Mitigation/Adaptation 6/12/2019 2:46 PM 33 disruptive technology: advance of automation, autonomous vehicles, efficiencies through workplace automation. (cont'd) 6/12/2019 11:22 AM 34 art galleries 6/12/2019 10:24 AM 35 allow farms to sever 1 to 2 acre lots along frontage on the existing roads. 6/12/2019 10:00 AM 36 Green focus, a Green, sustainable Erin 6/12/2019 8:17 AM 37 We do not want development - this is why we live in Erin 6/12/2019 7:44 AM 38 More infrastructure. 6/12/2019 7:33 AM 39 Preserve small town environment 6/12/2019 7:04 AM 40 maintain the rural and environmental culture within the town of Erin 6/12/2019 6:30 AM 41 senior's housing options 6/12/2019 6:20 AM 42 net zero carbon in all new home & commercial construction 6/12/2019 12:32 AM 43 Making internet availability a priority. It's a shame the services that are available in the area. 6/11/2019 11:32 PM 44 Preservation of rural way of life 6/11/2019 10:35 PM 45 Affordability 6/11/2019 10:07 PM 46 TRUCK BYPASS OF MAIN STREET 6/11/2019 9:30 PM 47 keeping a small town feel 6/11/2019 9:21 PM 48 Attract young professionals to Erin 6/11/2019 9:20 PM 49 Stop referencing quaint and charm these do not get finances to support the town. 6/11/2019 9:17 PM 50 Protect scenic downtown and historic areas 6/11/2019 9:16 PM 51 Attracting high net worth individuals on large parcels of land 3 to 10 acres 6/11/2019 8:31 PM 52 Child care 6/11/2019 8:18 PM 53 Consider population impact versus corporate compensation for new initiatives 6/11/2019 8:15 PM 54 Impact to existing residents 6/11/2019 7:37 PM 55 Ability of our schools to handle the new growth 6/11/2019 7:02 PM 56 Present rural roads are not satiactory for more traffic. Extra growth should stay in already built up areas. 6/11/2019 6:18 PM 57 Maintaining existing schools 6/11/2019 6:08 PM 58 Environmentally responsible development with respect for the credit valley conversation and the watershed. 6/11/2019 6:07 PM 59 Do not want farmers land being bought up and houses being built. We need our farming area. We are rural. This isn't Brampton 6/11/2019 5:49 PM 60 Fewer big trucks going through Erin village 6/11/2019 5:35 PM 27 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 61 Affordability - existing residents should NOT pay for the cost of development.... 6/11/2019 5:23 PM 62 better recycling programs 6/11/2019 3:59 PM 63 The Quarry moved further away from the residential area 6/11/2019 3:55 PM 64 Sustainable, Green business plans. 6/11/2019 3:41 PM 65 Retirement Residence so we don't lose current residents 6/11/2019 3:30 PM 66 Affordable Housing 6/11/2019 3:21 PM 67 Maintenance of small-town feel 6/11/2019 3:03 PM 68 Water 6/11/2019 2:43 PM 69 No more growth 6/11/2019 2:24 PM 70 Sustainability 6/11/2019 2:22 PM 71 Reasonable ongoing costs to residents for water and sewage rates 6/11/2019 2:20 PM 72 Low carbon, carbon neutral 6/11/2019 2:20 PM 73 Any new industry should be sensitive to the environment and low impact on existing homes and properties 6/11/2019 1:53 PM 74 Fiscal Responsibility 6/11/2019 1:43 PM 75 Within transportation, diverting trucks from town 6/11/2019 1:39 PM 76 community feedback/ townhall meetings 6/11/2019 1:32 PM 77 Maintain small town culture 6/11/2019 1:23 PM 78 Small business required 6/11/2019 1:22 PM 79 Community Amenities 6/11/2019 1:14 PM 80 Public indoor swimming pool added onto the high school 6/11/2019 1:04 PM 81 Any developments should be in character of the existing town 6/11/2019 12:54 PM 82 Family friendly 6/11/2019 12:53 PM 83 Transportation networks 6/11/2019 12:47 PM 84 Bring in small industry. I've been looking to do this for some years! But there isn't incentives. 6/11/2019 12:32 PM 85 Impacts to species at risk, beyond "natural enviroment" 6/11/2019 12:29 PM 86 Too much growth, more crime 6/11/2019 12:26 PM 87 DEVELOPERS SHOULD SOURCE LOCAL SUPPLIERS 6/11/2019 12:26 PM 88 The Town needs a "Vision" that goes past the term of our politicians. 10 year minimum 6/11/2019 12:26 PM 89 Off leash dog park 6/11/2019 12:23 PM 90 Infrastructure- schools, doctors, community events (Milton neglected to make sure they had space before growing) 6/11/2019 12:22 PM 91 need young families to come to town so schools do not close 6/11/2019 12:20 PM 92 Better use of fairgrounds 6/11/2019 12:17 PM 93 Retirement community 6/11/2019 12:14 PM 94 Equine! Support the horse world, incentive to business to come, etc. 6/11/2019 12:13 PM 95 Reroute trucks from Main St. 6/11/2019 12:08 PM 96 creation of roads, schools, parks before houses are built 6/11/2019 12:06 PM 97 Space - we moved here to be more in the country, but can't afford to buy a house. 6/11/2019 12:06 PM 98 Infrastructure 6/10/2019 8:55 AM 99 Efficient water/ wastewater infrastructure 6/10/2019 8:52 AM 28 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 100 Sewers 6/8/2019 3:53 PM 101 Keep the small townfeeling 6/8/2019 3:05 PM 102 Wifi high speed 6/8/2019 2:31 PM 103 Stop allowing Nestle to extract ground water please, 6/8/2019 1:32 PM 104 Maintain rural character of town & area 6/8/2019 1:19 PM 105 Rural high speed internet 6/8/2019 12:40 PM 106 Keep atmosphere of Main Street business area and quaint village feel 5/30/2019 10:44 PM 107 Enhance the already existing Main Street shops that bring in tourists and revenue to the community . Shops sitting empty is unacceptable 5/30/2019 10:17 PM 108 Create a space for tiny homes, this is the way of the future, as people in their 20-30 are no longer able to buy houses with the rate its going 5/28/2019 10:48 AM 109 projected growth is too much. residence are not in favour of this 5/28/2019 8:49 AM 110 Maintain small town flare of existing town WITHOUT the Kleinberg affect. 5/27/2019 9:16 PM 111 Attract businesses that employ bright young technologically savvy and well paid people 5/26/2019 8:19 PM 112 keep erin small, thats why people want to live here 5/25/2019 3:28 PM 113 seriously consider making growth small and sticking to a rural tourist vibe for the town 5/25/2019 1:47 PM 114 Downtown businesses need help to survive 5/25/2019 11:47 AM 115 Cancel business licence fees for 2 years to motivate owners to open business 5/25/2019 10:46 AM 116 Town needs to work agressively to get development going 5/22/2019 4:37 PM # 2. DATE 1 Reduce crime 6/21/2019 7:52 AM 2 Pool 6/20/2019 11:28 PM 3 Healthcare/Mental Health Support 6/20/2019 8:16 PM 4 No increase to property taxes to pay for the new waste water facility. 6/20/2019 8:03 PM 5 Small McDonalds 6/20/2019 6:13 PM 6 Medical/healthcare facilities 6/20/2019 6:06 PM 7 Current residents NOT paying for new development 6/20/2019 4:13 PM 8 Relocate and reevaluate the waste water treatment plant location and effectiveness 6/20/2019 3:58 PM 9 Protecting small town sense of community and properties of existing residents 6/20/2019 3:34 PM 10 Minimal sprawl 6/19/2019 7:37 PM 11 projects that have a low environmental impact 6/19/2019 8:50 AM 12 Keep it small 6/17/2019 11:01 AM 13 fiscal responsibility -- balanced budget without huge tax increases 6/15/2019 8:34 PM 14 Any new housing should be matched by sufficient industry for tax base. 6/15/2019 1:03 PM 15 Bringing in businesses decreasing rent for them so they will join the downtown 6/15/2019 8:39 AM 16 Strict architectural control to avoid horrid mass development like Brampton 6/15/2019 8:31 AM 17 Ensure the downtown's of both Erin and Hillsburgh are pedestrian friendly 6/14/2019 12:56 PM 18 Fulfill your commitment to make/keep Erin a horse friendly town. Acknowledge trail riding and work to create more trails, working with landowners. 6/13/2019 1:27 PM 19 Improved internet access with better rates so people can work from home without any interruption 6/13/2019 12:49 PM 20 social viability - residential development should facilitate a sense of interconnectedness. 6/13/2019 11:35 AM 21 Public Green Space and Gardens 6/13/2019 9:13 AM 29 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 22 Ambulance service 6/13/2019 6:40 AM 23 growth should take into account the heritage nature of town 6/12/2019 5:35 PM 24 what is Erin doing to facilitate these sorts of technologies. (one example answer would be: better network connectivity, another could be education, etc.) 6/12/2019 11:22 AM 25 crafts 6/12/2019 10:24 AM 26 allow builders to develop these properties on the existing roads. 6/12/2019 10:00 AM 27 Lifestyle choices for living a healthy lifestyle 6/12/2019 8:17 AM 28 Do not bring in low-income housing or you will see an exodus of your white collar residents 6/12/2019 7:44 AM 29 attract young families 6/12/2019 6:20 AM 30 Indigenous inclusion in town council and land use planning. 6/12/2019 12:32 AM 31 Community amenities 6/11/2019 11:32 PM 32 Economic viability 6/11/2019 10:07 PM 33 Increase students in local schools 6/11/2019 9:20 PM 34 Showcase Erin's unique features & waterways 6/11/2019 9:16 PM 35 We need to create infrastructure to support long term growth & sustainability- internet, water & waste. 6/11/2019 8:31 PM 36 Improve leadership with subject matter experts guiding council 6/11/2019 8:15 PM 37 Mainting the rural life of Erin ie. farms 6/11/2019 7:02 PM 38 Obviously, more businesses would help to maintain a reasonable tax base for residences. 6/11/2019 6:18 PM 39 Maintaining the small town atmosphere 6/11/2019 6:08 PM 40 Focus on developers creating their own waste water systems 6/11/2019 5:35 PM 41 . Since it is not affordable business such as the theatre have left. We need to attract commercial industrial business but we dont have infrastructure for them to use. 6/11/2019 5:04 PM 42 sewage system 6/11/2019 3:59 PM 43 Starter homes so youth can stay 6/11/2019 3:30 PM 44 Community Amenities 6/11/2019 3:21 PM 45 Protection of woodlands and farmland 6/11/2019 3:03 PM 46 Upkeep of roads especially rural 6/11/2019 2:43 PM 47 No more growth 6/11/2019 2:24 PM 48 Limit growth 6/11/2019 2:22 PM 49 Sidewalks in the outlying areas (Erin Heights area) 6/11/2019 2:20 PM 50 Sustainable and resilient design and systems 6/11/2019 2:20 PM 51 Minimizing impact to existing residential 6/11/2019 1:43 PM 52 Protection of wetlands 6/11/2019 1:39 PM 53 more opportunities for youth to network and gain experience 6/11/2019 1:32 PM 54 Improved and intensive policing 6/11/2019 1:23 PM 55 Better town management (new ideas required) 6/11/2019 1:22 PM 56 Transportation and road capacities 6/11/2019 1:14 PM 57 Bringing a agricultural college to town 6/11/2019 1:04 PM 58 No big box store 6/11/2019 12:54 PM 59 Senior affordability 6/11/2019 12:53 PM 60 Job creation with small business support 6/11/2019 12:47 PM 30 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 61 Minimize the environmental footprint. 6/11/2019 12:32 PM 62 Impacts to water sources such as aquafers, beyond "natural enviroment" 6/11/2019 12:29 PM 63 Protection of woods 6/11/2019 12:26 PM 64 NEW HOUSING SHOULD ENHANCE AND STRENGTHEN COMMUNITY 6/11/2019 12:26 PM 65 We have an outstanding opportunity to make Erin a wonderful equine destination. This means an integrated trail network, bed and bales and more! 6/11/2019 12:26 PM 66 Daycare 6/11/2019 12:23 PM 67 Community involvement - create opportunity to function as a community to avoid new and old divide 6/11/2019 12:22 PM 68 need affordable housing for young families and seniors 6/11/2019 12:20 PM 69 Increased police presence on roads 6/11/2019 12:17 PM 70 Tourism - eco and green both quaint town and rural areas 6/11/2019 12:13 PM 71 Keep property values from deteriorating 6/11/2019 12:06 PM 72 Infrastructure - we left Guelph because the growth was not supported by infrastructure 6/11/2019 12:06 PM 73 Sewers 6/10/2019 8:55 AM 74 Assisted living houses 6/10/2019 8:52 AM 75 Housing 6/8/2019 3:53 PM 76 Get affordable housing for seniors they will spent money in townw 6/8/2019 3:05 PM 77 Local employment 6/8/2019 2:31 PM 78 Don't accept Nestle's voluntary levy anymore 6/8/2019 1:32 PM 79 Consider tourism as the business opportunity 6/8/2019 1:19 PM 80 Comprehensive recreation and trails 6/8/2019 12:40 PM 81 Make the permit process less restrictive and more accessible for new business opportunists 5/30/2019 10:17 PM 82 Mobile home community as again people in their 20-30 can no longer afford to buy houses 5/28/2019 10:48 AM 83 no to WWTP 5/28/2019 8:49 AM 84 Do not cater strictly to the visitor, focus on needs of locals. 5/27/2019 9:16 PM 85 employ building standards that reinforce our reputation of being an attractive small town with a pretty main street 5/26/2019 8:19 PM 86 find a way for transport trucks to bypass the main strip in erin 5/25/2019 3:28 PM 87 Make trails of all kinds a drawing card and people who come to use them will frequent other establishmants 5/25/2019 1:47 PM 88 Main Street needs resurfacing 5/25/2019 11:47 AM 89 Cancel development fees for mobile homes parks and apartments building. 5/25/2019 10:46 AM 90 Encourage several developers to build so that all housing will not look the same (cookie cutter) 5/22/2019 4:37 PM # 3. DATE 1 More stores 6/20/2019 11:28 PM 2 Small Walmart (affordable children's' clothing, etc) 6/20/2019 6:13 PM 3 Housing options for seniors 6/20/2019 6:06 PM 4 New subdivision = self sufficiency 6/20/2019 4:13 PM 5 Redesign traffic control volume from and to town and surrounding areas 6/20/2019 3:58 PM 6 Protecting wildlife habitats and agriculture lands 6/20/2019 3:34 PM 7 Keep rural areas rural. 6/19/2019 7:37 PM 31 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 8 Protect environment 6/17/2019 11:01 AM 9 emergency services - police, fire, ambulance 6/15/2019 8:34 PM 10 Deal with the improvement of streets and roads to attract new owners 6/15/2019 8:39 AM 11 Buildings must have designs that are complimentary and respectful of existing historic properties 6/15/2019 8:31 AM 12 Built up area so it attracts tourists. Day use and overnight. Beautiful areas with a lot of assists that can attract small business for tourism (biking, hiking, horseback riding etc) 6/14/2019 12:56 PM 13 Affordable housing for those graduating from EDHS through to seniors who are downsizing and want to stay in the area. Both groups are leaving as they cannot afford to live here. 6/13/2019 1:27 PM 14 Making sure public park spaces/walking & bike trails are integrated in the new plan 6/13/2019 12:49 PM 15 Sidewalks Everywhere 6/13/2019 9:13 AM 16 Improved police presence 6/13/2019 6:40 AM 17 try to keep the "small town" atmosphere 6/12/2019 5:35 PM 18 clothing stores 6/12/2019 10:24 AM 19 Allow the town to add to the tax base without adding to existing expenses 6/12/2019 10:00 AM 20 Transport to GTA 6/12/2019 8:17 AM 21 Keep it consisent and local - KEEP US SMALL 6/12/2019 7:44 AM 22 become a leading community powered by solar energy 6/12/2019 6:20 AM 23 zero imprint microhomes in coordination with rural property owners. 6/12/2019 12:32 AM 24 Job creation 6/11/2019 11:32 PM 25 Access to public greenspace 6/11/2019 10:07 PM 26 Enhance entrepreneurs to serve increased population 6/11/2019 9:20 PM 27 Learn what NOT to do from the sprawl that is Brampton & Mississauga 6/11/2019 9:16 PM 28 Consider future generations long term on key decisions 6/11/2019 8:15 PM 29 Maintains the small town feel of the villages 6/11/2019 7:02 PM 30 Truck traffic through Erin village discourages businesses from expanding or coming. 6/11/2019 6:18 PM 31 Maintains amenities for families eg. libraries, recreation 6/11/2019 6:08 PM 32 Climate change and sustainable inititives should be on the forefront of town council initives. 6/11/2019 5:04 PM 33 Affordable family homes, so families can support business 6/11/2019 3:30 PM 34 Preserving quality of life features 6/11/2019 3:21 PM 35 Affordable housing 6/11/2019 3:03 PM 36 Transportation 6/11/2019 2:43 PM 37 No more growth 6/11/2019 2:24 PM 38 Trailways and maintained garbage cans in the town Erin 6/11/2019 2:20 PM 39 Food security / local, sustainable, resilient food economy 6/11/2019 2:20 PM 40 invest in updating infrastructure-waste of money grading the roads and dealing with floods multiple times a year 6/11/2019 1:32 PM 41 small industry, commerce, community and environment working together 6/11/2019 1:22 PM 42 Fiscal Responsibilities 6/11/2019 1:14 PM 43 Creating a leash free dog park 6/11/2019 1:04 PM 44 STOP big business from taking and polluting our natural resources, for there own gain. 6/11/2019 12:32 PM 45 Renaturalization of agricultural areas where owners can explore alternative models 6/11/2019 12:29 PM 46 Water protection 6/11/2019 12:26 PM 32 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 47 DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE OVER 20+ YEARS 6/11/2019 12:26 PM 48 Tim Hortons in Hillsburgh 6/11/2019 12:23 PM 49 Benefits to existing residents- make sure they are not just giving and never getting! 6/11/2019 12:22 PM 50 attract business both small and large 6/11/2019 12:20 PM 51 Bypass of 124 6/11/2019 12:17 PM 52 Youth / new rural communities - support people leaving town for a healthier living (tiny homes community, community farms, etc) 6/11/2019 12:13 PM 53 housing for people who've graduated and want to stay in Erin 6/10/2019 8:52 AM 54 Transpertation 6/8/2019 3:05 PM 55 Variety of businesses (not all convenience stores for example 6/8/2019 2:31 PM 56 Listen to what your local environmental activists say 6/8/2019 1:32 PM 57 Funds for bia from all businesses & individual stores 6/8/2019 1:19 PM 58 Restaurants 6/8/2019 12:40 PM 59 Kids require improved playgrounds in park spaces and community gathering sites 5/30/2019 10:17 PM 60 Rent to own properties 5/28/2019 10:48 AM 61 Move truck traffic back to south end of town, according to initial plans. 5/27/2019 9:16 PM 62 improve road and property maintenance standards to reflect an image of a progressive community 5/26/2019 8:19 PM 63 do not force people into a municipal waste water system 5/25/2019 3:28 PM 64 Create a new development fee and tax bracket for commercial ventures on rural/farm properties so that they can afford to build/expand/employ but also get more tax than agriculture 5/25/2019 1:47 PM 65 Rerouting of heavy trucks off our mainstreet with delivery exception 5/25/2019 11:47 AM 66 Creat more business areas and plazas and cancel development fees for a year 5/25/2019 10:46 AM 67 Housing for seniors should be a priority - condos with no stairs 5/22/2019 4:37 PM # 4. DATE 1 More business for jobs 6/20/2019 11:28 PM 2 Basketball ball court 6/20/2019 6:13 PM 3 New developments increase tax base to decrease taxes 6/20/2019 4:13 PM 4 Develop AFFORDABLE housing not huge manors 6/20/2019 3:58 PM 5 Consider infrastructure. How will the town manage double the population? 6/19/2019 7:37 PM 6 Keep it pretty! No ugly structures and signs! 6/17/2019 11:01 AM 7 support services - schools, medical centers, senior services, recreation centers 6/15/2019 8:34 PM 8 Deal with septic/sewer issue for all residents not bringing in sewer for only new development 6/15/2019 8:39 AM 9 Strictly enforce Green-Belt vision as a guiding principle in development 6/15/2019 8:31 AM 10 Erin is well known for its red tape and un-business atmosphere. We do want to be selective, but don't continue to drive away viable business due to red tape. 6/13/2019 1:27 PM 11 No monster homes. Smaller and more affordable is the only option for our planet 6/13/2019 12:49 PM 12 Housing Intensification 6/13/2019 9:13 AM 13 antique stores 6/12/2019 10:24 AM 14 Access to rural engagement, country lifestyle 6/12/2019 8:17 AM 15 regenerative strategy consulting to develop community food growing programs . 6/12/2019 12:32 AM 16 Attracting Businesses to the area 6/11/2019 11:32 PM 17 Educational institutions 6/11/2019 10:07 PM 33 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 18 Improved transportation 6/11/2019 9:20 PM 19 Connect the Villages to existing transit hubs 6/11/2019 9:16 PM 20 Do more surveys get public input more frequently 6/11/2019 8:15 PM 21 Quiet and peacefulness of living in a rural area 6/11/2019 7:02 PM 22 A by-pass on 17 sdrd. seems to be the best alternative, but construction costs would be very high. 6/11/2019 6:18 PM 23 Maintaining heritage sites 6/11/2019 6:08 PM 24 Housing Diversity (enough large, high price homes) 6/11/2019 3:30 PM 25 Completion of sewer system 6/11/2019 3:03 PM 26 No more growth 6/11/2019 2:24 PM 27 More police presence, security cameras perhaps in Erin 6/11/2019 2:20 PM 28 Densification and diversification in designated growth areas 6/11/2019 2:20 PM 29 stronger police presence for safety (highway traffic and business/residential theft) 6/11/2019 1:32 PM 30 Public transport required 6/11/2019 1:22 PM 31 Presevation of Natural Environment 6/11/2019 1:14 PM 32 Expanding outdoor activities all year 6/11/2019 1:04 PM 33 Public transport for commuting between larger hubs (Guelph, Georgetown etc). 6/11/2019 12:32 PM 34 Keep Erin safe 6/11/2019 12:26 PM 35 MAINTAIN TOWN OWNERSHIP OF INFRASTRUCTURE 6/11/2019 12:26 PM 36 Speed bumps in Hillsburgh 6/11/2019 12:23 PM 37 Feeding funds into 4H, agricultural events etc- to maintain traditional culture 6/11/2019 12:22 PM 38 Green energy / town sustainability 6/11/2019 12:13 PM 39 Transportation within and connecting to GO transit 6/10/2019 8:52 AM 40 Commercial I'll notto much 6/8/2019 3:05 PM 41 Traffic flow 6/8/2019 2:31 PM 42 Money isn't everything, what matters is community 6/8/2019 1:32 PM 43 Improve/expand trails walking/biking 6/8/2019 1:19 PM 44 Full use of existing facilities e.g. Centre 2000 theatre 6/8/2019 12:40 PM 45 require any new residential development to incorporate seniors housing 5/26/2019 8:19 PM 46 water costs per cuft are too high, 5/25/2019 3:28 PM 47 Get a company to build a 55+ community like the one in Belwood and share the cost of building recreation facilities so that this town gets a rec center it can afford 5/25/2019 1:47 PM 48 A community pool 5/25/2019 11:47 AM 49 Let people buildup there ideas and homes without high fees and taxes and easier process 5/25/2019 10:46 AM 50 Walkability to amenities in new construction areas is important 5/22/2019 4:37 PM # 5. DATE 1 Large play gym park similar to Hillsburg park 6/20/2019 6:13 PM 2 Control noise and light noise from traffic and housing. 6/20/2019 3:58 PM 3 Have a clear vision and plan. Move forward with care. Do not turn Erin into another town that people will look back on wistfully in the future lamenting what it has become. 6/19/2019 7:37 PM 4 Keep Main Street functioning with appropriate rent rates for business 6/17/2019 11:01 AM 5 Be smart about traffic flow design and truck routing 6/15/2019 8:31 AM 34 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 6 Fiscal responsibility, honesty & transparency to the citizens. 6/13/2019 1:27 PM 7 Improved community services to grow with the housing increase 6/13/2019 12:49 PM 8 Focus on the Sharing Economy 6/13/2019 9:13 AM 9 horses and animals as part of lifestyle 6/12/2019 8:17 AM 10 Affordable housing 6/11/2019 11:32 PM 11 Main Street revitalization 6/11/2019 10:07 PM 12 High speed internet to attract small businesses 6/11/2019 9:20 PM 13 Slow traffic/give heavy-trucks a bypass around the urban centres 6/11/2019 9:16 PM 14 Be more transparent about decisions 6/11/2019 8:15 PM 15 Work with other villages to find a by-pass that would perhaps by-pass Erin, Hillsburgh, Caledon Village and Alton. Work together ! 6/11/2019 6:18 PM 16 Limiting any more gravel pit operations 6/11/2019 6:08 PM 17 No more growth 6/11/2019 2:24 PM 18 Alternate Truck route 6/11/2019 2:20 PM 19 Walkability and livability 6/11/2019 2:20 PM 20 invest in hillsburghs downtown core. erin is too chaotic and busy. spread it out. 6/11/2019 1:32 PM 21 Active Transportation Options 6/11/2019 1:14 PM 22 Bringing in an Uber program 6/11/2019 1:04 PM 23 ENERGY EFFICIENT DESIGN, HIGH SPEED INTERNET CONNECTED 6/11/2019 12:26 PM 24 Internet towers 6/11/2019 12:23 PM 25 Supporting arts and creative endeavours - which are less lucrative but makes sure we keep our soul! 6/11/2019 12:22 PM 26 Employment for people so they can spent there money in Town 6/8/2019 3:05 PM 27 Help local people understand the beauty of all types of diversity 6/8/2019 1:32 PM 28 Protect aquifers 6/8/2019 1:19 PM 29 property taxes are too high for what we get 5/25/2019 3:28 PM 30 Don't get too big. Our small town vibe is all we have got. Don't destroy it. 5/25/2019 1:47 PM 31 Sewage system 5/25/2019 11:47 AM 32 Home knowing and listen to our people and issues and ideas 5/25/2019 10:46 AM 33 Remember to plan for parking for events like the fair 5/22/2019 4:37 PM 35 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy Q11 In a few words, please describe what you want the Town of Erin to look like in 2041. Answered: 172 Skipped: 112 # RESPONSES DATE 1 A bustling small town where people want to cone to spend the day or two 6/21/2019 7:52 AM 2 Environmentally responsible! No wealth in the world will matter if there are no bees, or clean water or trees. Stop focussing on money. There's plenty! Just distribute it equitably. 6/21/2019 6:12 AM 3 Mostly unchanged. Don't destroy the small town atmosphere. Erin won't disappear without growth. 6/21/2019 6:07 AM 4 Small but thriving 6/20/2019 11:28 PM 5 Growing and viable. 6/20/2019 11:08 PM 6 Thriving businesses along the Main Street, moderate expansion of housing (to sustain economic development), destination of eco-tourism 6/20/2019 8:16 PM 7 I would like the town to remain small. We moved here because we like the small town environment. I don't think a lot of growth is a good option for the environment. Waste water from the new plant will be going to the credit river . I'm also concerned about rising property taxes as Erin is already very expensive. 6/20/2019 8:03 PM 8 A town with more than one grocery store and building centre and maybe a park for kids to play 6/20/2019 6:32 PM 9 Diverse, balanced 6/20/2019 6:17 PM 10 Pretty much the same but with sewers in the whole village, public swimming pool, more places for kids to have fun at, more affordable restaurants & small department stores. No transport truck traffic through town on Main Street 6/20/2019 6:13 PM 11 A healthy active community where young families can afford to raise their kids and grandparents can afford to stay. 6/20/2019 6:06 PM 12 Thriving town, locally owned businesses, family focused with recreation for children and teens... A rural town with a modern vibe. 6/20/2019 5:15 PM 13 Run on Green energy 6/20/2019 4:46 PM 14 Much the same small - quaint 6/20/2019 4:13 PM 15 Erin can keep the quant rural atmosphere. Protecting its water (or lack of it). Not building a waste water treatment plant. Controlling how and what developers build. Preserving the rural environment and all the species within. 6/20/2019 3:58 PM 16 A good balance of new low intensity homes, green space and more businesses. And roads that you don't need a 4x4 to drive on. 6/20/2019 3:44 PM 17 I want to see it protected as an agricultural area close to GTA and not get swallowed up the way Milton was destroyed 6/20/2019 3:34 PM 18 In 2041 I will be 66 years old. I hope by them there is a vibrant seniors living centre so I don't have to leave town in my later years. I also want it to retain the character and small town feel. 6/20/2019 3:17 PM 19 More local job opportunities, high speed internet available to all areas, increased housing 6/20/2019 2:55 PM 20 I would like the town to keep the small town feeling and look. 6/20/2019 2:50 PM 21 I want the Town of Erin to look like a small town. I do not want it to look like an urban centre with big box stores that you can find a 15 minute drive away. I want it to be a green (literally) welcoming community without traffic congestion and city noise. I want it to be a place where people can live their whole lives and love where they live. 6/19/2019 7:37 PM 22 live and work in Erin, multi-generational families 6/19/2019 8:50 AM 23 Maintain the small-town vibe that drew us in the first place. 6/17/2019 7:12 PM 36 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 24 We came here because it was a small rural town. We do not want it to look like Georgetown or Brampton . It should preserve its quaint quality with small amounts of growth. Homes that reflect the town and not squeezed into tiny lots. A safe place for children to ride bikes and play. 6/17/2019 11:01 AM 25 Quiet. No traffic jams 6/17/2019 5:17 AM 26 town with 50 000 residents and all amenities including shoping mall 6/16/2019 7:12 PM 27 Still a small town 6/16/2019 5:22 PM 28 would like it to retain its small town flavour, with modern services - a place where our grandchildren would be proud to live 6/15/2019 8:34 PM 29 Maintain natural environment character requiring trees, parks, Lobrary expansion, walking & cycling trails with sufficient tax base from industry & business which also support employment for residents. A rural feel. Horse & agriculture surrounding urban areas. 6/15/2019 1:03 PM 30 small town flavour with sufficient employment 6/15/2019 9:39 AM 31 Anchored to the Community Vision statement already created during the SSMP. 6/15/2019 9:35 AM 32 I want to see the town still a tourist small town vibe with more businesses coming to the Main Street, including a decent restaurant to go to, see expansion in the outside of town not taking away from a small town "feel" a council that deals with roads and septic issues Erin remaining the small town vibe it has now with community events like it has now 6/15/2019 8:39 AM 33 Erin is a spectacular small rural agricultural community north of the GTA that surpasses the quaintness and charm of Niagara on the Lake, or similar destinations in Ontario 6/15/2019 8:31 AM 34 Paved rural roads! 6/15/2019 6:42 AM 35 I would like Erin to look a bit more like a developed, exciting, town. Similar to Georgetown or Orangeville. but on a smaller scale 6/14/2019 6:50 PM 36 Small town. Against sewers and growth 6/14/2019 1:02 PM 37 Create a nice vibrant downtown in Hilsburgh. Create a pedestrian friendly town in Hilsburgh (including a safe way for people to cross Trafalge). A self contained community. Rather than bedroom community. Bring the employment and the people here. 6/14/2019 12:56 PM 38 I'd like the downtown to look as it does now, but with all stores occupied, and people on the street enjoying our small-town warmth. Approaching the town, people should drive by fields with crops growing or animals grazing - not a strip of businesses. Cluster the businesses in a designated business development zone. Don't allow tall buildings to impede on the openness that surrounds the town. 6/14/2019 10:17 AM 39 Keep the small town feel and charm. Not a town surrounded by big box stores and high density housing. 6/14/2019 10:13 AM 40 I would like it to still retain its small town feel within the villages, no monster houses, no tearing down of the old store fronts. Keeping the community feel of Erin, so people feel safe to walk, bike and commune with their neighbours and nature. Job growth opportunities on the outskirts of the village, with business parks etc... 6/14/2019 8:22 AM 41 A town that feels small to to people that visit,but large enough to think one could live and work and be able to raise a family with amenities needed to live prosperously. 6/13/2019 9:30 PM 42 A tax base community with a balance of industry and residential, where at least 40% of individuals living here, also work here. 6/13/2019 8:53 PM 43 to maintain village same village atomsphere 6/13/2019 3:45 PM 44 We choose Erin because of its small size, rural nature and the ability to own acreage and have horses at home. Although the town needs more housing and business, do not turn us into another Milton! In too many of our neighbouring towns houses are taking over farms, that are just places to live and no community. Keep in mind, how are we going to feed ourselves if all our farms become houses! With the current trade wars, this may happen sooner than later. 6/13/2019 1:27 PM 45 I would like to see Erin be a leader - taking into account the true needs of our future. Not only as a community but as a planet. Somehow maintaining the charm of Erin but allowing for the necessary growth. Trees should be planted on each new lot. I know it sounds trite...but it isn't. How wonderful if people could live in Erin and work in Erin. This would require the necessary incentives to bring business here. Hopefully something that can be considered. Good luck. 6/13/2019 12:49 PM 37 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 46 A community that is resilient and sustainable with respect to its natural environment and its economy. A community that is oriented to the common good, open to diversity and change and shares a vision for the community's future whether the population is 4500 or 10,000! 6/13/2019 11:35 AM 47 Similar small town culture but with better water and housing for existing and new people 6/13/2019 10:24 AM 48 A stronger, more diverse community with wastewater capabilities and workplaces for residents 6/13/2019 9:20 AM 49 Sustainable and Socially Responsible Community where people can care for oneanother. 6/13/2019 9:13 AM 50 A bigger version of itself, finally grown up , successful and has the same basic character it has today 6/13/2019 8:10 AM 51 Slightly larger. Fiscally prudent. Highway bypass from downtown. Small town charm. 6/13/2019 6:40 AM 52 Small town but with more amenities for residents; no big box stores except on outskirts of town; some form of public transit to nearest Go station. 6/12/2019 5:35 PM 53 No ghetto areas. No cheap mass housing for taxes only. No division of business or retail areas. Keep a core. Promote the arts and culture. 6/12/2019 5:30 PM 54 A town that doesn't need more traffic lights to control the excess number of cars traveling. A small town that meets the needs of its residents. 6/12/2019 3:37 PM 55 Strong sense of community, self-reliant, preservation of natural features, economic opportunities, family-centered. 6/12/2019 2:46 PM 56 small town look and feel 6/12/2019 10:24 AM 57 Nice of you to ask but from above I would like the town to continue to look like a pretty rural town with a couple of central hubs such as Hillsburgh and Erin 6/12/2019 10:00 AM 58 Rustic, quaint, inviting and matching the beautiful natural environment of the landscape. 6/12/2019 9:59 AM 59 A green, sustainable community supported by a viable green industrial base, with access to local farms, horses and country lifestyle. 6/12/2019 8:17 AM 60 I want it to look identical to now. And so does everyone else. Do not develop this area or I will move. I can promise you that. 6/12/2019 7:44 AM 61 It needs to remain a small village. Leave the cancer of urban sprawl in Peel Region. 6/12/2019 7:33 AM 62 I would like to see a variety of amenities, with lots of parks. I would like a lot of entertainment amenities. 6/12/2019 7:33 AM 63 Keeping it's small town charm, offering a choice of employment in the area and upgraded access to emergency services. 6/12/2019 7:10 AM 64 I don't want it to look like Orangeville. Mix of small business and small town feel 6/12/2019 7:04 AM 65 Mostly rural, mostly farming with small town centres that draw weekend city dwellers for tourism. Focus on main streets - much like Orangeville and Elora. 6/12/2019 6:30 AM 66 A town where multi generations can live affordably and work, within the village and rural areas, in a healthy environment, minimizing the carbon footprint and becoming as self sustaining as possible. 6/12/2019 6:20 AM 67 Same character, no high density housing 6/12/2019 5:50 AM 68 Not like Milton. I grew up in Milton when it was still a small town and have just been devastated by what it has become. DO NOT ALLOW THIS HERE. I'm glad to see that consideration appears to be given to what residents think/feel. We moved to Erin for a reason... it's a small town and having grown up in a small town I know what that means. Bigger towns mean yes, potentially more money coming in, but more money going out as well. My mother still lives in Milton and having grown up there herself, is just heartbroken over what it has become. Too much too fast. 6/12/2019 4:58 AM 69 Given the unique opportunity to develop a town like Erin, I would focus on microhome, zero imprint housing. -shuttle services to GoTrain - regenerative culture 6/12/2019 12:32 AM 70 Green, with control over it's water and natural resources and a world class place to live and grow that allows it's residents to thrive. 6/11/2019 11:32 PM 71 A small, friendly, non commercialized rural town. Single main street with traditional shops. Not Georgetown, Not Orangeville, No strip malls, power centers etc 6/11/2019 10:35 PM 38 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 72 Maintain the heritage landscape of the Town, while integrating green and economic initiatives that support a self sufficient town that is well integrated with the surrounding regions. 6/11/2019 10:07 PM 73 Big enough to have jobs and infrastructure, but a great place to live and enjoy life. 6/11/2019 9:52 PM 74 Still quaint and charming. What a shame it would be to add cookie cutter subdivisions with massive houses. Please try to keep the charm of the town. 6/11/2019 9:21 PM 75 A thriving downtown with excellent restaurants, art galleries and community gathering places while preserving the charm of a small town community. Parks and trails to serve existing and new movers of our community. 6/11/2019 9:20 PM 76 Growing and prosperous 6/11/2019 9:17 PM 77 Charming, historic downtown with local art, boutiques and great places to sit out and enjoy local fare and events - a place families can stay and grow up or get older, surrounded by beautiful hills, farmland, trails and parks. All convenient to public and commuting-transit (close enough to work in the city but so different in character, pace and unique sense of space). A place where people walk to do their chores/enjoy time outside and take pride in their front yards. Let's be smart about development (unlike some of our neighbours to the south and grow in a smart, green and unique kind of way...). Thanks for asking BTW. 6/11/2019 9:16 PM 78 A natural extension of Caledon or Georgetown communities, affluent suburb within the expanded GTA. Thriving downtown with entrepreneurs catering to families enjoying both affordability & connectivity to nature. 6/11/2019 8:31 PM 79 Small town feel with cute shops on Main Street same as now. One big box store between Hillsburgh and Erin 6/11/2019 8:18 PM 80 Green city, connected high speed every where , young progressive leadership. A hub for young professional families looking to leave the urban centres for a quality of life that this town will offer. 6/11/2019 8:15 PM 81 Place with small town feel but still having all amenities ( ie like fergus now) 6/11/2019 7:37 PM 82 Bustling! Teens have lots of job opportunities, businesses are thriving, libraries are busy, seniors have affordable housing, schools are full. 6/11/2019 7:18 PM 83 A rural escape from the city... a rural place that stays smaller than guelph, Acton, Georgetown Orangeville and Milton. We moved to Erin for the rural serenity and we hope it continues. 6/11/2019 7:02 PM 84 A well planned community with a balance of housing; businesses; rural living still viable, and a reasonable network of roads. 6/11/2019 6:18 PM 85 I would like to see the wastewater sewage plant in place allowing for growth . I would like to see the natural environment outside the built up areas preserved. I would hope to see water resources preserved for future residents. 6/11/2019 6:08 PM 86 Don't change anything leave it the way it is. Let's preserve our small town charm 6/11/2019 5:49 PM 87 Retain the village feel while growing. Bustling streetscape that safe and quieter without trucks 6/11/2019 5:35 PM 88 In my perfect world, it would look much the same as now. We moved here to live in a small town. If that changes, we will likely leave. 6/11/2019 5:23 PM 89 Dont forget about Hillsburgh, Enough talks and studies lets get together and make the world take notice. We are friendly folks here invite them from out of town to visit. Young people need jobs to stay here, lets get it going 6/11/2019 5:04 PM 90 I would like to see a town that has all their stores open and people using them. I would certainly like to see us have a hardware store again. I would like to see a town where it doesn't cost an arm and a leg to purchase items. I'd love to see a new grocery store. This town has alot of the same stores. I'd like to see some afforable housing as well. However I would not like to see a McDonald's come here or a Walmart. I like the small town charm. 6/11/2019 5:04 PM 91 Same as now 6/11/2019 4:48 PM 92 The Town of Erin should be a prosperous community with a rural/natural environment emphasis that supports a diverse community of people. 6/11/2019 4:36 PM 93 Clean and affordable living for young families. Jobs , so they don't have to drive to the city for work. 6/11/2019 4:10 PM 94 vibrant, with a small town and traditional feel 6/11/2019 3:59 PM 95 Not be overly built up with condos and townhouses 6/11/2019 3:55 PM 39 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 96 Thriving economy, affordable housing options, tax burdens reasonable. 6/11/2019 3:41 PM 97 I want the town to be small enough to maintain it's small town charm and feel, but big enough to support the businesses that are here. I want there to be enough housing options that people don't need to leave Erin for their next home type (retirement), or to buy their first home (young families, or single individual). Having business growth so families can live AND work in town would be great! 6/11/2019 3:30 PM 98 The same charm and character 6/11/2019 3:24 PM 99 Small town feel with enough population to enable shopping and service choices and enough industrial/commercial to keep unemployment low. 6/11/2019 3:21 PM 100 Still a small town in a rural environment. Not enveloped by surrounding municipalities. Emphasis on provision of affordable housing 6/11/2019 3:03 PM 101 About the same as now. No urban sprawl. 6/11/2019 2:43 PM 102 Nice small community 6/11/2019 2:43 PM 103 Don't know. I won't be here. 6/11/2019 2:42 PM 104 A nice, quite small town. We live in a gem compared to other towns. Let's keep it small and quite. Let's preserve our natural lands and keep it safe and small. 6/11/2019 2:24 PM 105 Erin could be a unique town that had protected its small town feel. Investing in small growth projects, and sustainable infrastructure. This would make Erin a desirable place to live and work. 6/11/2019 2:22 PM 106 A place where young families and seniors can live and support local businesses. 6/11/2019 2:20 PM 107 A vibrant, full service community where engaged residents live and work. A post carbon community that is resilient in the face of climate disruption and ecological decline. A community with strong social networks and support for the well-being of all residents. An aware citizenry that is committed to working collectively to providing for equity and access to food and housing. A community that eats within its foodshed. 6/11/2019 2:20 PM 108 Exactly as it is. It is currently perfect in my opinion and I hope they keep the growth to a minimum. Brampton used to be a nice place too but growth has ruined it which is why I moved to Erin. 6/11/2019 2:08 PM 109 I'd like it to maintain a small town feeling and protect the environment as much as possible. 6/11/2019 2:04 PM 110 Much like today with walk ability and small cohesive neighbourhoods. 6/11/2019 1:53 PM 111 Amenities such as a better grocery store (like in Acton) and a thriving main street in Erin. Having shops that cater to all the needs of the community 6/11/2019 1:43 PM 112 Same as today. Lots of amenities with a small town charm. 6/11/2019 1:40 PM 113 A mix of homes with a diverse population. Industry available with jobs. A vibrant down town core with stores, space for events and for kids. 6/11/2019 1:39 PM 114 Engaging community with local business and natural environment thriving. New residents partaking in community groups and outdoor spaces. 6/11/2019 1:39 PM 115 thriving, but i doubt it. too many smaller communities near the GTA are just places for GTA employees to live. the local jobs here are for those who could not "get out" or who are "stuck". this is a very rural area. there is not nearly enough opportunity for residents with education, talent, experience to find meaningful work without commuting elsewhere. you're losing people. 6/11/2019 1:32 PM 116 Still a small town with low crime rate where people are still treated politely 6/11/2019 1:23 PM 117 The town, small industry, commerce, community and environment working together to make the best small town in Canada. 6/11/2019 1:22 PM 118 Mix of housing types and variety of workplaces within walking and cycling distance of home. Concentrated in urban area, with natural and farmland surrounding. 6/11/2019 1:21 PM 119 Growth in all areas, schools fully utilized, transportation options 6/11/2019 1:21 PM 120 The Future Town of Erin would still have small town charm and character but also have industry and businesses and services that will allow people to afford housing and be part of a community. Adequate health care and services and stores that would be self supportive without residents driving 20-30 minutes to access, creating a close knit community. 6/11/2019 1:14 PM 40 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 121 A thriving community socially, environmentally and culturally with lots of access to the natural environment. 6/11/2019 1:03 PM 122 I want the town to stay it's small charming self. People that want to move to a small town for the feel will continue to enjoy erin. Growth is not required or wanted. Who wants to be the next brampton or milton or any of those other busy congested polluted places. I moved to Erin to live in a small cute town. 6/11/2019 1:01 PM 123 Small quaint town 6/11/2019 12:54 PM 124 Like it is now with character and charm. Not a busy centre that feels like city's on our outskirts. Want to be able to walk down the street and people say hi. Do not want to worry about locking my doors and windows at night because of the people that came to town because of low income housing...we already have enough of that because of e.w.a.g. And their people. We need to grow but extremely cautious. The way it is now with some plans people can not afford and will be leaving...me included. 6/11/2019 12:53 PM 125 The same as it has been. With a core main street and minimal housing development. With a core agrarian business. 6/11/2019 12:51 PM 126 Not an busy/hectic urban centre. But to still have its charm and small town feel. 6/11/2019 12:51 PM 127 same as now 6/11/2019 12:47 PM 128 Energized, quirky, a destination with opportunities for local residents to work with walking or cycling distance. Not a commuter bedroom. 6/11/2019 12:47 PM 129 The town of Erin should be an easily accessible, self supporting community. With farms, local industry and commerce working together with the environment. To make the best community it Ontario. If managed correctly this can be done well before 2041. 6/11/2019 12:32 PM 130 I wish for Erin to look much like it does now in 2041, save for increases in re-wilded and re- naturalized areas, and decreases in highly intensive "traditional" agriculture. Ours should be a role which shows those in urban areas the value of the natural world, and how things can be done with economic viability, while emphasizing the persistence of the natural world and the happiness of Erin's residents. Many of us who move to Erin do so for its small-town feel and its substantially rural character. This is an asset which could render Erin, depending on one's perspective, as "developed", or "grown", already. As we grapple with, among other things, the climate crisis - an existential issue for humanity - our hand is being forced: The earth cannot sustain endless economic growth, so what are we, in Erin, going to do to face this reality? How are we not going to stick our collective head in the sand regarding this cold, hard fact? We, in Erin, have been gifted with large natural and agricultural areas which we haven't yet covered with residences, warehouses, and pavement. This is an exceptional positive situation considering our proximity to the GTA. Let's resist pressure to "grow" - endless growth, by mathematical fact, being an implicitly unsustainable activity; endless "sustainable growth" is a paradoxical notion - and recognize instead that what we have now works fabulously well, so we must do whatever we can to keep things in the current sweet-spot. The realization that we cannot have endless growth will be foisted upon us eventually, so let's assert the primacy of choice now and say, this is where it stops: We're happy now, we need for nothing more, so we'll do what's necessary to keep things just perfect as they are. 6/11/2019 12:29 PM 131 Beautiful and peaceful and safe 6/11/2019 12:26 PM 132 A COMMUNITY THAT BLENDS THE BEST OF THE COUNTRY, PRISTINE ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG PERSONAL CONNECTIONS, WITH URBAN AWARENESS AND SENSITIVITY TO THE REST OF THE WORLD 6/11/2019 12:26 PM 133 A self sustaining Town where you do not have to leave to get what you need. You should be able to work, shop, play and live in this one truly unique destination...Erin 6/11/2019 12:26 PM 134 Small town feel, economically friendly, community events, ice cream shops, litter free 6/11/2019 12:23 PM 135 A co operative and eclectic town, slower paced than other towns but full of opportunity. Not commerce driven but community driven. A place with heart and support for new endeavours. 6/11/2019 12:22 PM 136 controlled growth for both young families and somewhere for our seniors to go to when their property is to big. 6/11/2019 12:20 PM 137 Contemporary but keeping small town look 6/11/2019 12:17 PM 138 Same charm. more support services. More housing options 6/11/2019 12:14 PM 41 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 139 An healthy township coupling sustainable residential areas with younger communities and tourism and successful agricultural areas that support green / eco tourism. A boasting equestrian community and Erin considered as a hub for all horse related things. In short, a modern township that has figured how to grow in a sustainable manner and efficiently without losing its charm and strong rural / equine roots, and building on it to attract more activity and revenues 6/11/2019 12:13 PM 140 Small town feel. But better use of tax dollars. 6/11/2019 12:10 PM 141 Sustainable, economically successful, a clear focus on environment, welcoming, peaceful, clean. 6/11/2019 12:10 PM 142 No idea 6/11/2019 12:08 PM 143 Sustainable growth that is self contained and serving the community to avoid becoming another commuter town 6/11/2019 12:07 PM 144 Like Georgetown 6/11/2019 12:06 PM 145 I don't want it to change much. I moved here to get away from the city and large towns. I want to be able to walk a block or two and be in a field or the woods. Please don't make me have to move again. 6/11/2019 12:06 PM 146 Small but still growing 6/8/2019 3:53 PM 147 Love the town my son and daughter live her 6/8/2019 3:05 PM 148 Attractive, bustling centre with hometown feel to attract tourism, businesses, easy shopping and events 6/8/2019 2:31 PM 149 A vibrant, diverse town with values that reflect the best of humanity. 6/8/2019 1:32 PM 150 Vibrant downtown, regulated attractive signage, rural character, avoid storefronts that are just offices, highway bypass T 6/8/2019 1:19 PM 151 Small town friendly and affordable 6/8/2019 1:03 PM 152 Not much different than it is 6/8/2019 12:56 PM 153 Vibrant community where people can live, work, play, raise children, age gracefully. 6/8/2019 12:40 PM 154 Still small and quaint. New development that fits the style of the town. Small house with good yards 5/31/2019 1:33 AM 155 Like a quaint small town with vibrant local businesses 5/30/2019 10:44 PM 156 Thriving , beautiful, scenic ...surrounded by farming and rural communities. Wastewater in place and Main Street drawing in tourists to visit one of a kind shops and local artisans products . Education and opportunity for youth comparable to Oakville's small districts - Restrict overpopulation but utilize spaces already permitted for development . The large old school on Main has been waiting .. 5/30/2019 10:17 PM 157 I would hope that it retain the magic of small town charm..people are so friendly..and involved...so easy to feel part of this community with the variety of organizations we have. Would love to see the village downtown shops thrive 5/29/2019 6:33 PM 158 A vibrant town with a flourishing economic and arts base. 5/29/2019 3:55 PM 159 I would love for the town of Erin to stay a small knit community. Maybe add some bigger named stores on the main street in Erin so the locals dont have to drive 20-30mins to another town. (Shoppers drugmart, giant tiger, dollarama...ect) Instead of building homes that the younger generation cant afford.. i think we could add tiny home community's, more mobile home community's (not only 55+ aged). 5/28/2019 10:48 AM 160 Housing for young and old, transportation to neighbouring towns/cities, all amenities in town, sewage system and continued focus on it's position in a splendid natural environment. 5/27/2019 9:16 PM 161 A vibrant community with affordable taxes 5/27/2019 8:20 PM 162 It should have a charming main shopping street in Erin village, with a variety of restaurants. There should be a wide variety of housing, both in cost and appearance; no endless rows of nearly identical facades like Brampton and Mississauga. Industrial/commercial areas would have mandated sizeable trees and landscaping associated with each enterprise 5/26/2019 8:19 PM 163 Small town community that supports it's farming community as well as it's residents. An understanding that the community needs some growth but knows the limitations of the town and it's residents. 5/25/2019 5:58 PM 42 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 164 i would like to see it much as it is today. a small quiet town where crime is very low, and neighbors help each other 5/25/2019 3:28 PM 165 A well maintained version of its current self. There is no need to double in size, it won't be the same. 5/25/2019 2:21 PM 166 Still small but more creative. Galleries, parks, trails, rural farm based tourism. Wine, cider, beer, beef, farm markets, green space, recreation and eco tourism are doable here. No need for major develpment or massive housing. Let's be different and really focus on our strengths. Being another Milton would just be sad......let's not get gobbled up into cookie cutter sub division living :( Let's be farm fresh, rural chic, Peel and Haltons backyard playground! 5/25/2019 1:47 PM 167 A thriving local community where people can afford to live, have job opportunities and be able to downsize and retire. The town needs to have amenities and stores that can serve those who live here - we are such a boutique community right now that we are driving families and seniors away from the community they grew up in. We need to better by 2041. 5/25/2019 12:10 PM 168 Vibrant full downtown shops, water walkways and restaurants with water view. More parking offered. We need more tourism. 5/25/2019 11:47 AM 169 Beautiful town of nature that you can live and work in! 5/25/2019 10:46 AM 170 A well Planned community where the new blends with older .( Homes and people ) A well rounded service focused community 5/25/2019 9:55 AM 171 Would prefer it not end up looking like, for example, Brampton- where houses are so close together, no yards, all the same or they are row houses. Moved to erin because it was appealing as a small town surrounded by farm areas which does not appear to have any of the things named above. 5/25/2019 9:43 AM 172 The Town should be a busy actively used place that looks great and attracts new people and businesses. More people will bring more businesses and jobs so that residents can get competitively prices services of all kinds (no more driving to other cities). 5/22/2019 4:37 PM 43 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 62.98% 148 37.02% 87 Q12 Do you want to be involved in future public consultation activities for the Growth Management Strategy? Answered: 235 Skipped: 49 TOTAL 235 Yes No 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ANSWER CHOICES RESPONSES Yes No 44 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy Q13 If yes, how would you like to be involved? Answered: 121 Skipped: 163 # RESPONSES DATE 1 Surveys 6/21/2019 10:56 AM 2 Surveys like this one. 6/21/2019 6:19 AM 3 Open forums 6/21/2019 6:07 AM 4 Fourms 6/20/2019 11:09 PM 5 Email 6/20/2019 6:34 PM 6 Provide feedback 6/20/2019 6:17 PM 7 Meetings, surveys 6/20/2019 6:14 PM 8 Public meetings about important growth decisions 6/20/2019 6:07 PM 9 Notifications of meetings, questions regarding Erin's future, any Aggregate changes, including purchasing etc. 6/20/2019 4:03 PM 10 Surveys like this one 6/20/2019 3:45 PM 11 not sure 6/20/2019 2:51 PM 12 By attending public meetings 6/19/2019 7:37 PM 13 email updates and notice of pubic meetings and council discussions 6/19/2019 8:51 AM 14 Consultation 6/17/2019 7:13 PM 15 Emails to update etc 6/17/2019 11:02 AM 16 by email 6/16/2019 7:13 PM 17 Committees, consultation, written information. 6/15/2019 1:04 PM 18 Surveys, townhalls 6/15/2019 8:32 AM 19 Survey 6/15/2019 6:42 AM 20 Anyway you want 6/14/2019 1:03 PM 21 surveys, providing feedback on proposals- do not want to be on a committee 6/14/2019 10:18 AM 22 I'll sit on committees and be involved. 6/14/2019 10:14 AM 23 meetings, surveys 6/14/2019 8:24 AM 24 Be part of small business association. 6/13/2019 9:36 PM 25 public meeting forums 6/13/2019 3:33 PM 26 You need help creating surveys not in planning jargon! 6/13/2019 1:31 PM 27 Notified with option to indicate approval or didapproval 6/13/2019 1:25 PM 28 willing to sit on a liaison committee 6/13/2019 11:36 AM 29 Attend Meetings, Workshops 6/13/2019 9:14 AM 30 Given the opportunity to provide input 6/13/2019 9:01 AM 31 Survey 6/13/2019 6:40 AM 32 Communication from town to be transparent in its plans 6/12/2019 3:42 PM 33 Through community engagement 6/12/2019 2:47 PM 34 possible committee work or consultation 6/12/2019 10:02 AM 45 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 35 Focus groups, town hall meetings, action committees 6/12/2019 8:18 AM 36 As a consultant 6/12/2019 7:45 AM 37 Anyway that I can help in any capacity. Boards, information groups, town hall meetings 6/12/2019 7:11 AM 38 More survey requests 6/12/2019 7:05 AM 39 Discussion forum 6/12/2019 6:38 AM 40 surveys 6/12/2019 6:21 AM 41 Survey 6/12/2019 5:52 AM 42 Anyway I can. I would like to receive more information on the ways in which the community can get involved. 6/12/2019 4:59 AM 43 I would be interested in working with the town on a test project in a forest micro home development on my property. 6/12/2019 12:36 AM 44 Council / committee positions 6/11/2019 11:32 PM 45 Voting rights, rural preservation committee 6/11/2019 10:36 PM 46 I would like to participate in consultation, events and as a community liaison wherever possible. 6/11/2019 10:08 PM 47 Emails and surveys 6/11/2019 9:53 PM 48 BEING INFORMED 6/11/2019 9:31 PM 49 surveys, phone calls, writing articles 6/11/2019 9:22 PM 50 Public meetings not controlled by a few obnoxious people who do not want to listen to an other persons opinion. 6/11/2019 9:22 PM 51 Happy to volunteer time on a committee 6/11/2019 8:32 PM 52 by survey questions 6/11/2019 7:56 PM 53 Email about plans/decison making proces/ 6/11/2019 7:38 PM 54 Online 6/11/2019 7:23 PM 55 Public meetings 6/11/2019 7:18 PM 56 Continue to be updated and given surveys to voice my opinions like this one 6/11/2019 7:03 PM 57 Interested in meetings 6/11/2019 6:27 PM 58 Public forums, surveys 6/11/2019 5:51 PM 59 I would attend meetings, serve on committees, etc. 6/11/2019 5:24 PM 60 task force as a committee, town hall meeting? 6/11/2019 5:05 PM 61 I would like to attend meetings. 6/11/2019 5:05 PM 62 Surveys 6/11/2019 4:45 PM 63 informed of planning meetings etc. 6/11/2019 3:59 PM 64 Planning commities. 6/11/2019 3:42 PM 65 survey 6/11/2019 3:34 PM 66 Continued opportunity for community involvement and input 6/11/2019 3:31 PM 67 Public Forums 6/11/2019 3:21 PM 68 Meetings, emails 6/11/2019 3:03 PM 69 Vote 6/11/2019 2:24 PM 70 Town halls, public meetings, committees 6/11/2019 2:22 PM 71 not sure, maybe on a consultation basis 6/11/2019 2:21 PM 72 Surveys 6/11/2019 2:09 PM 73 Meetings 6/11/2019 1:58 PM 46 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 74 surveys - email or phone 6/11/2019 1:43 PM 75 input via surveys or questions. 6/11/2019 1:40 PM 76 Planning 6/11/2019 1:23 PM 77 Be active to help push Erin forward. 6/11/2019 1:23 PM 78 not sure 6/11/2019 1:21 PM 79 Email with follow up answer to the results of the surveys 6/11/2019 1:15 PM 80 Committees 6/11/2019 1:04 PM 81 Focus group 6/11/2019 1:04 PM 82 Surveys 6/11/2019 12:55 PM 83 Email, surveys 6/11/2019 12:54 PM 84 Email and survey. Can't get to meetings unfortunately 6/11/2019 12:54 PM 85 Email [email protected] 6/11/2019 12:52 PM 86 Surveys, potentially focus groups if timing allows 6/11/2019 12:48 PM 87 voting 6/11/2019 12:47 PM 88 Actively 6/11/2019 12:33 PM 89 In any way possible 6/11/2019 12:30 PM 90 email, survey etc 6/11/2019 12:28 PM 91 FACILITATED PUBLIC MEETINGS TO DRAW OUT IDEAS IN PUBLIC 6/11/2019 12:27 PM 92 I would love to be helpful. Contributing ideas 6/11/2019 12:24 PM 93 Informed 6/11/2019 12:15 PM 94 Committee, or other depending on the need 6/11/2019 12:14 PM 95 Consulted via email surveys about major changes or decisions 6/11/2019 12:11 PM 96 Just the knowledge of what is taking place. The town has a real issue with not telling the info. 6/11/2019 12:09 PM 97 Consulted at each stage 6/11/2019 12:09 PM 98 attend meetings sit on committees 6/11/2019 12:07 PM 99 In whatever way possible. I am not aware of the options. 6/11/2019 12:07 PM 100 If I can get transportation to meetings 6/10/2019 8:53 AM 101 Cosulted 6/8/2019 2:41 PM 102 Email, town hall 6/8/2019 2:32 PM 103 Come to Erin United Church and give a presentation 6/8/2019 1:33 PM 104 Committee 6/8/2019 12:47 PM 105 Via email 6/8/2019 12:30 PM 106 emailed updates 6/3/2019 10:29 AM 107 Committees, panels etc 5/31/2019 1:34 AM 108 Committee member 5/30/2019 10:17 PM 109 Public meetings 5/29/2019 6:34 PM 110 Email or mail 5/28/2019 10:01 PM 111 More surveys, town meetings? 5/28/2019 10:51 AM 112 email, survey, meetings 5/28/2019 8:49 AM 113 Planing 5/27/2019 9:18 PM 114 public meetings 5/27/2019 8:21 PM 47 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 115 seniors housing reqirements 5/26/2019 8:29 PM 116 However I can. Committee? Meetings? Focus Groups? 5/25/2019 1:48 PM 117 In meetings, open discussion, 5/25/2019 12:11 PM 118 Ideas, I've been involved in the community and I have an idea of what a lot of us wants 5/25/2019 10:50 AM 119 Yes 5/25/2019 9:57 AM 120 Through surveys 5/25/2019 9:44 AM 121 Have more surveys as development goes along. 5/22/2019 4:38 PM 48 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 0.42% 1 2.53% 6 14.77% 35 23.63% 56 40.08% 95 13.50% 32 5.06% 12 Q14 What is your age range? Answered: 237 Skipped: 47 TOTAL 237 Under 20 years 20-29 years 30-39 years 40-49 years 50-64 years 65-74 years 75 and above 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ANSWER CHOICES RESPONSES Under 20 years 20-29 years 30-39 years 40-49 years 50-64 years 65-74 years 75 and above 49 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 52.30% 125 40.17% 96 6.69% 16 0.84% 2 Q15 What is your gender? Answered: 239 Skipped: 45 TOTAL 239 # OTHER/PREFER TO SELF-DESCRIBE DATE 1 family of husband and wife hence male and female! 6/13/2019 3:47 PM 2 S 6/11/2019 12:36 PM Female Male Prefer not to say Other/prefer to... 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ANSWER CHOICES RESPONSES Female Male Prefer not to say Other/prefer to self-describe 50 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy 94.92% 224 5.08% 12 Q16 Do you identify as a visible minority? Answered: 236 Skipped: 48 TOTAL 236 # YES - PLEASE DESCRIBE DATE 1 white anglo Saxon male 6/16/2019 5:23 PM 2 a senior citizen who has to leave the community to join an active seniors center with an assortment of programs geared to seniors, when this should be available in Erin 6/15/2019 8:37 PM 3 East Indian 6/13/2019 9:01 AM 4 I am an immigrant from Rhodesia 6/12/2019 10:02 AM 5 Not sure why thie question is relevant to the topic because in n Erin all minorities are visible 6/12/2019 6:38 AM 6 Asian 6/11/2019 2:43 PM 7 Japanese 6/11/2019 1:23 PM 8 Female 6/11/2019 12:23 PM 9 East Asian 5/29/2019 3:55 PM 10 Asians 5/26/2019 4:38 AM 11 i am a single white male. 5/25/2019 3:29 PM 12 I am a white male. 5/25/2019 2:22 PM No Yes - please describe 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ANSWER CHOICES RESPONSES No Yes - please describe 51 / 51 Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy Appendix B Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy October 2019 | 19-9450 B Official Plan Amendment No. 99 Appendix C Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy October 2019 | 19-9450 C Table of Contents for EIS 1.0 Introduction 2.0 Overview of Policy Framework 2.1 Provincial Framework 2.1.1 Provincial Policy Statement (2014) 2.1.2 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2019) 2.1.3 Greenbelt Plan (2017) 2.2 Regional Framework 2.2.1 Regional Official Plan 2.3 Municipal Framework 2.3.1 Municipal Official Plan Municipal Tree Protection By-law 2.4 Endangered Species Act, 2007 2.5 Conservation Authority (Ontario Regulation XXX/XX) 3.0 Results of Background Review 3.1 Landforms, Soils, and Geology 3.2 Aquatic Environment 3.3 Natural Heritage Features 3.3.1 Wetlands 3.3.2 Woodlands 3.3.3 Valleylands 3.3.4 Areas of Natural and Scientific Interest 3.3.5 Significant Wildlife Habitat 3.4 Species at Risk 3.5 Incidental Wildlife 4.0 The Methodology of Biophysical Inventory 4.1 Ecological Land Classification 4.2 Vegetation Inventory 4.3 Natural Heritage Features 4.3.1 Wetlands 4.3.2 Woodlands 4.3.3 Significant Wildlife Habitat 4.4 Species at Risk 4.5 Incidental Wildlife 5.0 Results of Biophysical Inventory 5.1 Ecological Land Classification 5.2 Vegetation 5.3 Natural Heritage Features 5.3.1 Wetlands 5.3.2 Woodlands 5.3.3 Significant Wildlife Habitat 5.4 Species at Risk 5.5 Incidental Wildlife 6.0 Ecological Function 7.0 Description of Proposed Development 8.0 Impact Assessment 8.1 Direct Impacts 8.1.1 Tree and Vegetation Removal 8.1.2 Diversion of Surface Water Flows 8.1.3 Erosion and Sedimentation of Natural Features 8.1.4 Loss of and/or Disturbance to Wildlife 8.2 Indirect Impacts 8.2.1 Anthropogenic disturbance 8.2.2 Encroachment of Non-native and/or Invasive Species 9.0 Mitigation and Opportunities for Enhancement 9.1 Construction Mitigation Recommendations 9.2 Natural Heritage Feature Buffers 9.3 Restoration and Enhancement Opportunities 9.4 Wildlife Impact Mitigation Plan 9.5 Erosion and Sediment Control Plan 9.6 Functional Servicing and Stormwater Management Plan 9.7 Environmental Monitoring Plan 10.0 Summary Appendix D Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy October 2019 | 19-9450 D Detailed Population and Housing Forecasts Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 A - 1 Singles & Semi- Detached Multiple Dwellings2 Apartments3 Other Total Households 11,890 11,418 3,755 10 95 95 3,955 2.887 11,910 11,439 3,805 35 120 150 4,110 2.783 12,060 11,570 3,890 40 130 150 4,210 2.748 14,340 13,770 4,680 100 180 150 5,120 2.689 16,250 15,610 5,200 140 230 150 5,710 2.734 18,900 18,160 5,880 190 270 150 6,490 2.798 20 21 50 25 25 55 155 150 131 85 5 10 0 100 2,280 2,200 790 60 50 0 910 4,190 4,040 1,310 100 100 0 1,500 6,840 6,590 1,990 150 140 0 2,280 Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding ² Includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes. ³ Includes bachelor, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom+ apartments. Town of Erin Residential Growth Forecast Year Population (Including Census Undercount)¹ Population Excluding Census Undercount Housing Units Person Per Unit (P.P.U.): Total Population/ Total Households Historical Mid 2011 Mid 2016 Forecast Mid 2019 Mid 2031 Mid 2036 Mid 2041 Incremental Mid 2011 - Mid 2016 Mid 2016 - Mid 2019 Mid 2019 - Mid 2031 Mid 2019 - Mid 2036 Mid 2019 - Mid 2041 Derived from Wellington County Official Plan (Revisions November 9, 2017) forecast for the Town of Erin by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2019 ¹ Census undercount estimated at approximately 4.1%. Note: Population including the undercount has been rounded. Singles & Semi- Detached Multiple Dwellings2 Apartments3 Other Total Households 2,983 2,865 880 5 65 95 1,045 2.742 3,077 2,955 935 15 90 115 1,155 2.558 3,110 2,980 950 20 100 120 1,180 2.525 4,460 4,290 1,350 60 140 120 1,670 2.569 5,570 5,350 1,650 80 170 120 2,020 2.649 7,130 6,850 2,070 110 200 120 2,500 2.740 94 90 55 10 25 20 110 33 25 15 5 10 5 25 1,350 1,310 400 40 40 0 490 2,460 2,370 700 60 70 0 840 4,020 3,870 1,120 90 100 0 1,320 Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding Derived from Wellington County Official Plan (Revisions November 9, 2017) forecast for the Town of Erin by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2019 ¹ Census undercount estimated at approximately 4.1%. Note: Population including the undercount has been rounded. ² Includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes. ³ Includes bachelor, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom+ apartments. Historical Mid 2011 Mid 2016 Forecast Mid 2019 Mid 2031 Mid 2036 Mid 2041 Incremental Mid 2011 - Mid 2016 Mid 2016 - Mid 2019 Mid 2019 - Mid 2031 Mid 2019 - Mid 2036 Mid 2019 - Mid 2041 Erin (Village) Residential Growth Forecast Year Population (Including Census Undercount)¹ Population Excluding Census Undercount Housing Units Person Per Unit (P.P.U.): Total Population/ Total Households Singles & Semi- Detached Multiple Dwellings2 Apartments3 Other Total Households 1,380 1,325 425 5 30 0 460 2.880 1,418 1,362 455 10 30 10 505 2.699 1,460 1,400 480 10 30 10 530 2.642 2,030 1,950 640 40 50 10 740 2.635 2,510 2,410 770 50 60 10 890 2.708 3,170 3,060 940 70 70 10 1,090 2.807 39 37 30 5 0 10 45 42 38 25 0 0 0 25 570 550 160 30 20 0 210 1,050 1,010 290 40 30 0 360 1,710 1,660 460 60 40 0 560 Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding Derived from Wellington County Official Plan (Revisions November 9, 2017) forecast for the Town of Erin by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2019 ¹ Census undercount estimated at approximately 4.1%. Note: Population including the undercount has been rounded. ² Includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes. ³ Includes bachelor, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom+ apartments. Historical Mid 2011 Mid 2016 Forecast Mid 2019 Mid 2031 Mid 2036 Mid 2041 Incremental Mid 2011 - Mid 2016 Mid 2016 - Mid 2019 Mid 2019 - Mid 2031 Mid 2019 - Mid 2036 Mid 2019 - Mid 2041 Hillsburgh Residential Growth Forecast Year Population (Including Census Undercount)¹ Population Excluding Census Undercount Housing Units Person Per Unit (P.P.U.): Total Population/ Total Households Town of Erin Growth Management Strategy - Final October 2019 | 19-9450 A - 2 Singles & Semi- Detached Multiple Dwellings2 Apartments3 Other Total Households 7,526 7,228 2,450 0 0 0 2,450 2.950 7,415 7,122 2,415 10 0 25 2,450 2.907 7,490 7,190 2,470 10 0 20 2,500 2.876 7,840 7,530 2,680 10 0 20 2,710 2.779 8,160 7,840 2,780 10 0 20 2,810 2.790 8,590 8,250 2,870 10 0 20 2,900 2.845 -110 -106 -35 10 0 25 0 75 68 55 0 0 -5 50 350 340 210 0 0 0 210 670 650 310 0 0 0 310 1,100 1,060 400 0 0 0 400 Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding Derived from Wellington County Official Plan (Revisions November 9, 2017) forecast for the Town of Erin by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2019 ¹ Census undercount estimated at approximately 4.1%. Note: Population including the undercount has been rounded. ² Includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes. ³ Includes bachelor, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom+ apartments. Historical Mid 2011 Mid 2016 Forecast Mid 2019 Mid 2031 Mid 2036 Mid 2041 Incremental Mid 2011 - Mid 2016 Mid 2016 - Mid 2019 Mid 2019 - Mid 2031 Mid 2019 - Mid 2036 Mid 2019 - Mid 2041 Erin Rural Residential Growth Forecast Year Population (Including Census Undercount)¹ Population Excluding Census Undercount Housing Units Person Per Unit (P.P.U.): Total Population/ Total Households