Asset Management Plan 2025

Papineau-Cameron, Ontario

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Asset Management Plan 2025 Township of Papineau-Cameron June 2025 Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 i This Asset Management Plan was prepared by: Empowering your organization through advanced asset management, budgeting & GIS solutions Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 ii Key Statistics $9.3 m 2023 Replacement Cost of Asset Portfolio $19 k Replacement Cost of Infrastructure Per Household 95% Percentage of Assets in Fair or Better Condition 95% Percentage of Assets with Assessed Condition Data $141 k Annual Capital Infrastructure Deficit 15 Years Recommended Timeframe for Eliminating Annual Infrastructure Deficit 4.9% Proposed Level of Service: Target Investment Rate 3.4% Actual Investment Rate Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 iii Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary ............................................................................ 4 2. Introduction & Context ........................................................................ 7 3. Portfolio Overview - State of the Infrastructure ..................................... 21 4. Portfolio Risk & Criticality................................................................... 25 5. Proposed Levels of Service ................................................................. 29 Financial Strategy ................................................................................. 41 6. Financial Strategy Overview ............................................................... 42 7. Recommendations & Key Considerations .............................................. 51 Appendices ........................................................................................... 53 Appendix A: Road Network ....................................................................... 54 Appendix B: Bridges & Culverts ................................................................. 61 Appendix C: Facilities .............................................................................. 68 Appendix D: Vehicles .............................................................................. 74 Appendix E: Machinery & Equipment .......................................................... 81 Appendix F: Level of Service Maps & Photos ................................................ 86 Appendix G: Risk Rating Criteria ............................................................... 91 Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 4 1. Executive Summary Municipal infrastructure delivers critical services that are foundational to the economic, social, and environmental health and growth of a community. The goal of asset management is to enable infrastructure to deliver an adequate level of service in the most cost-effective manner. This involves the ongoing review and update of infrastructure information and data alongside the development and implementation of asset management strategies and long-term financial planning. 1.1 Scope This Asset Management Plan (AMP) identifies the Township proposed level of service over a ten- year period and estimates the associated costs and risks of delivery. It identifies the Township's projected sustainable funding and funding shortfalls to meet the proposed Level of Service. Strategies for addressing the funding gap are included. As an appendix to this report, and as reported in the 2024 compliant AMP, current practices and strategies that are in place to manage public infrastructure and recommendations for their enhancement are provided. Through the implementation of sound asset management strategies, the Township of Papineau- Cameron can ensure that public infrastructure is managed to support the sustainable delivery of municipal services. This AMP includes the following asset categories: Figure 1 Core and Non-Core Asset Categories - Road Network - Bridges & Culverts Core Assets - Facilities - Vehicles - Machinery & Equipment Non-Core Assets Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 5 1.2 Compliance With the development of this AMP the Township of Papineau-Cameron has achieved compliance with July 1, 2025, requirements under O. Reg. 588/17. This includes requirements for proposed levels of service reporting for all asset categories. 1.3 Findings The overall replacement cost of the asset categories included in this AMP totals $9.3 million. 95% of all assets analyzed in this AMP are in fair or better condition and assessed condition data was available for 95% of assets. For the remaining 5% of assets, assessed condition data was unavailable, and asset age was used to approximate condition - a data gap that persists in most municipalities. Generally, age misstates the true condition of assets, making assessments essential to accurate asset management planning, and a recurring recommendation in this AMP. The development of a long-term, sustainable financial plan requires an analysis of whole lifecycle costs. This AMP uses a combination of proactive lifecycle strategies (paved roads) and replacement only strategies (all other assets) to determine the lowest cost option to maintain the current level of service. To meet the proposed LOS, the Township's average annual capital requirement totals $456 thousand. Based on a historical analysis of sustainable capital funding sources, the Township is committing approximately $315 thousand towards capital projects or reserves per year. As a result, there is currently an annual funding gap of $141 thousand. It is important to note that this AMP represents a snapshot in time and is based on the best available processes, data, and information at the Township. Strategic asset management planning is an ongoing and dynamic process that requires continuous improvement and dedicated resources. 1.4 Recommendations A financial strategy was developed to address the annual capital funding gap based on meeting the proposed LOS. The following graphics shows annual tax change required to eliminate the Township's infrastructure deficit based on a 15-year plan: Figure 2 Proposed Tax Changes Tax-Funded ASSETS Average Annual Tax Change 0.5% Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 6 Beyond the financial recommendations, there are recommendations to guide continuous refinement of the Township's asset management program. These include: - Review asset data and information to maintain a complete and accurate dataset. Focus first on the most impactful fields of replacement cost, assessed condition, and lifecycle activities. Also consider asset quantity information and helpful attribute data such location details. - Consider the use of third-party professionals to conduct a Roads Needs Study and a Building Condition Assessment (BCA) to improve the quality of data available to inform decisions. - Implement risk-based decision-making as part of asset management planning and budgeting processes. This should include the regular review of high-risk assets to determine appropriate risk mitigation strategies. - On a regular annual basis measure current LOS and compare with proposed LOS annual targets. Where there is a significant difference between the two, work to understand the primary causes. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 7 2. Introduction & Context 2.1 Community Profile Census Characteristic Township of Papineau- Cameron Ontario Population 2021 982 14,223,942 Population Change 2016-2021 -3.3% 5.8% Total Private Dwellings 495 5,929,250 Population Density 1.7/km2 15.9/km2 Land Area 564.23 km2 892,411.76 km2 Table 1 Township of Papineau-Cameron Community Profile The Township of Papineau-Cameron is a single tier municipality in the Nipissing District located within Northeastern Ontario. The Township is situated east of Lake Nipissing, and on the south side of Ottawa River. Papineau Township was incorporated in 1888 and was named after Louis-Joseph Papineau, a prominent figure in Canadian history. Cameron Township was named after Chief Justice Sir Matthew Crooks Cameron and in 1992 Papineau and Cameron Townships were amalgamated. The Township consists of communities of Klock, Morel, and Rankin. These communities are multi-cultural, having strong roots to First Nations, French, and English heritage. The region historically served as a central hub for economic activities including fur trade, forestry, and agriculture. The region is characterized by its stunning natural environment which includes forests, lakes, and rivers. The Township's natural beauty and outdoor recreational opportunities make it a popular destination for outdoor enthusiasts. Visitors can enjoy seasonal activities like fishing, hiking, boating, and snowmobiling in the area's lakes and forests. The economy of Papineau-Cameron has historically been based on resource industries such as forestry, mining, and agriculture. These industries continue to play a role in the local economy, but there has also been diversification into tourism and outdoor recreational activities due to the natural beauty of the region. The Township has prioritized maintenance of its current infrastructure, allocating resources to ensure the ongoing functionality and resilience of its assets. This dedication highlights the Township's commitment to maintaining the effectiveness and integrity of its essential infrastructure. 2.2 Climate Change Climate change can cause severe impacts on human and natural systems around the world. The effects of climate change include increasing temperatures, higher levels of precipitation, Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 8 droughts, and extreme weather events. In 2019, Canada's Changing Climate Report (CCCR 2019) was released by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). The report revealed that between 1948 and 2016, the average temperature increase across Canada was 1.7°C; moreover, during this period, Northern Canada experienced a 2.3°C increase. The temperature increase in Canada has doubled that of the global average. If emissions are not significantly reduced, the temperature could increase by 6.3°C in Canada by the year 2100 compared to 2005 levels. Observed precipitation changes in Canada include an increase of approximately 20% between 1948 and 2012. By the late 21st century, the projected increase could reach an additional 24%. During the summer months, some regions in Southern Canada are expected to experience periods of drought at a higher rate. Extreme weather events and climate conditions are more common across Canada. Recorded events include droughts, flooding, cold extremes, warm extremes, wildfires, and record minimum arctic sea ice extent. The changing climate poses a significant risk to the Canadian economy, society, environment, and infrastructure. The impacts on infrastructure are often a result of climate-related extremes such as droughts, floods, higher frequency of freeze-thaw cycles, extended periods of high temperatures, high winds, and wildfires. Physical infrastructure is vulnerable to damage and increased wear when exposed to these extreme events and climate variabilities. Canadian Municipalities are faced with the responsibility to protect their local economy, citizens, environment, and physical assets. 2.2.1 Papineau-Cameron Climate Profile The Township of Papineau-Cameron is in Northeastern Ontario within the Nipissing district. The Township is expected to experience notable effects of climate change which include higher average annual temperatures, an increase in total annual precipitation, and an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme events. According to Climatedata.ca - a collaboration supported by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) - the Township of Papineau- Cameron may experience the following trends: Higher Average Annual Temperature: - Between the years 1971 and 2000 the annual average temperature was 3.9 ºC - Under a high emissions scenario, the annual average temperatures are projected to increase by 2.7 ºC by the year 2050 and over 6.6 ºC by the end of the century. Increase in Total Annual Precipitation: - Under a high emissions scenario, Papineau-Cameron is projected to experience an 13% increase in precipitation by the year 2051 and a 18% increase by the end of the century. Increase in Frequency of Extreme Weather Events: - It is expected that the frequency and severity of extreme weather events will change. 2.2.2 Integration Climate Change and Asset Management Asset management practices aim to deliver sustainable service delivery - the delivery of services to residents today without compromising the services and well-being of future residents. Climate change threatens sustainable service delivery by reducing the useful life of an asset and Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 9 increasing the risk of asset failure. Desired levels of service can be more difficult to achieve because of climate change impacts such as flooding, high heat, drought, and more frequent and intense storms. To achieve the sustainable delivery of services, climate change considerations should be incorporated into asset management practices. The integration of asset management and climate change adaptation observes industry best practices and enables the development of a holistic approach to risk management. 2.3 Asset Management Overview Municipalities are responsible for managing and maintaining a broad portfolio of infrastructure assets to deliver services to the community. The goal of asset management is to minimize the lifecycle costs of delivering infrastructure services, manage the associated risks, while maximizing the value ratepayers receive from the asset portfolio. The acquisition of capital assets typically accounts for about 10-20% of their total cost of ownership. The remaining 80-90% comes from operations and maintenance. This AMP focuses its analysis on the capital costs to maintain, rehabilitate and replace existing municipal infrastructure assets. Figure 3 Total Cost of Asset Ownership These costs can (and often do) span decades, requiring planning and foresight to ensure financial responsibility is spread equitably across generations. An asset management plan is critical to this planning, and an essential element of broader asset management program. The industry-standard approach and sequence to developing a practical asset management program begins with a Strategic Plan, followed by an Asset Management Policy and an Asset Management Strategy, concluding with an Asset Management Plan. 2.3.1 Foundational Asset Management Documentation The industry-standard approach and sequence to developing a practical asset management program begins with a Strategic Plan, followed by an Asset Management Policy and an Asset Management Strategy, concluding with an Asset Management Plan. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 10 Figure 4 Foundational Asset Management Documents This industry standard, defined by the Institute of Asset Management (IAM), emphasizes the alignment between the corporate strategic plan and various asset management documents. The strategic plan has a direct, and cascading impact on asset management planning and reporting. Asset Management Policy An asset management policy represents a statement of the principles guiding the Township's approach to asset management activities. It aligns with the organizational strategic plan and provides clear direction to municipal staff on their roles and responsibilities as part of the asset management program. On October 8th, 2019, the Council of Papineau-Cameron approved 'Resolution 2019-197', in accordance with Ontario Regulation 588/17. The Asset Management Policy provides a framework for the development and implementation of the Municipality's asset management program. It is intended to guide the consistent use of asset management across the organization, to facilitate logical and evidence-based decision-making for the management of municipal infrastructure assets and to support the delivery of sustainable community services now and in the future. Asset Management Strategy An asset management strategy outlines the translation of organizational objectives into asset management objectives and provides a strategic overview of the activities required to meet these objectives. It provides greater detail than the policy on how the Township plans to achieve asset management objectives through planned activities and decision-making criteria. The Township's Asset Management Policy contains many of the key components of an asset management strategy and may be expanded on in future revisions or as part of a separate strategic document. Strategic Plan Asset Management Policy Asset Management Strategy Asset Management Plan Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 11 Asset Management Plan The asset management plan (AMP) presents the outcomes of the Township's asset management program and identifies the resource requirements needed to achieve a defined level of service. The AMP typically includes the following content:  State of Infrastructure  Asset Management Strategies  Levels of Service  Financial Strategies The AMP is a living document that should be updated regularly as asset information changes and/or new information becomes available. This will allow the Township to re-evaluate the state of infrastructure and identify how the organization's asset management and financial strategies are progressing. 2.3.2 Key Concepts in Asset Management Effective asset management integrates several key components, including lifecycle management, risk & criticality, and levels of service. These concepts are applied throughout this asset management plan and are described below in greater detail. Lifecycle Management Strategies The condition or performance of most assets will deteriorate over time. This process is affected by a range of factors including an asset's characteristics, location, utilization, maintenance history and environment. Asset deterioration has a negative effect on the ability of an asset to fulfill its intended function, and may be characterized by increased cost, risk and even service disruption. To ensure that municipal assets are performing as expected and meeting the needs of customers, it is important to establish a lifecycle management strategy to proactively manage asset deterioration. There are several field intervention activities that are available to extend the life of an asset. These activities can be generally placed into one of three categories: maintenance, rehabilitation, and replacement. The following table provides a description of each type of activity and the general difference in cost. Depending on initial lifecycle management strategies, asset performance can be sustained through a combination of maintenance and rehabilitation, but at some point, replacement is required. Understanding what effect these activities will have on the lifecycle of an asset, and their cost, will enable staff to make better recommendations. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 12 Lifecycle Activity C o st Typical Associated Risks Maintenance Activities that prevent defects or deteriorations from occurring $  Balancing limited resources between planned maintenance and reactive, emergency repairs and interventions;  Diminishing returns associated with excessive maintenance activities, despite added costs;  Intervention selected may not be optimal and may not extend the useful life as expected, leading to lower payoff and potential premature asset failure; Rehabilitation/ Renewal Activities that rectify defects or deficiencies that are already present and may be affecting asset performance $ $ $  Useful life may not be extended as expected;  May be costlier in the long run when assessed against full reconstruction or replacement;  Loss or disruption of service, particularly for underground assets; Replacement/ Reconstruction Asset end-of-life activities that often involve the complete replacement of assets $ $ $ $ $  Incorrect or unsafe disposal of existing asset;  Costs associated with asset retirement obligations;  Substantial exposure to high inflation and cost overruns;  Replacements may not meet capacity needs for a larger population;  Loss or disruption of service, particularly for underground assets; Table 2 Lifecycle Management: Typical Lifecycle Interventions The Township's approach to lifecycle management is described for each asset category, and can be found in Appendix A to E. Staff will continue to evolve and innovate current practices for developing and implementing proactive lifecycle strategies to determine which activities to perform on an asset and when they should be performed to maximize useful life at the lowest total cost of ownership. Risk & Criticality Asset risk and criticality are essential building blocks of asset management, integral in prioritizing projects and distributing funds where they are needed most based on a variety of factors. Assets in disrepair may fail to perform their intended function, pose substantial risk to the community, lead to unplanned expenditures, and create liability for the municipality. In addition, some assets are simply more important to the community than others, based on their Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 13 financial significance, their role in delivering essential services, the impact of their failure on public health and safety, and the extent to which they support a high quality of life for community stakeholders. Risk is a product of two variables: the probability that an asset will fail, and the resulting consequences of that failure event. It can be a qualitative measurement, (i.e. low, medium, high) or quantitative measurement (i.e. 1-5), that can be used to rank assets and projects, identify appropriate lifecycle strategies, optimize short- and long-term budgets, minimize service disruptions, and maintain public health and safety. Figure 5 Risk Equations The approach used in this AMP relies on a quantitative measurement of risk associated with each asset. The probability and consequence of failure are each scored from 1 to 5, producing a minimum risk index of 1 for the lowest risk assets, and a maximum risk index of 25 for the highest risk assets. Probability of Failure Several factors can help decision-makers estimate the probability or likelihood of an asset's failure, including its condition, age, previous performance history, and exposure to extreme weather events, such as flooding and ice jams--both a growing concern for municipalities in Canada. Consequence of Failure Estimating criticality also requires identifying the types of consequences that the organization and community may face from an asset's failure, and the magnitude of those consequences. Consequences of asset failure will vary across the infrastructure portfolio; the failure of some assets may result primarily in high direct financial cost but may pose limited risk to the community. Other assets may have a relatively minor financial value, but any downtime may pose significant health and safety hazards to residents. Table 3 illustrates the various types of consequences that can be integrated in developing risk and criticality models for each asset category and segments within. We note that these consequences are common, but not exhaustive. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 14 Type of Consequence Description Direct Financial Direct financial consequences are typically measured as the replacement costs of the asset(s) affected by the failure event, including interdependent infrastructure. Economic Economic impacts of asset failure may include disruption to local economic activity and commerce, business closures, service disruptions, etc. Whereas direct financial impacts can be seen immediately or estimated within hours or days, economic impacts can take weeks, months and years to emerge, and may persist for even longer. Socio-political Socio-political impacts are more difficult to quantify and may include inconvenience to the public and key community stakeholders, adverse media coverage, and reputational damage to the community and the Municipality. Environmental Environmental consequences can include pollution, erosion, sedimentation, habitat damage, etc. Public Health and Safety Adverse health and safety impacts may include injury or death, or impeded access to critical services. Strategic These include the effects of an asset's failure on the community's long-term strategic objectives, including economic development, business attraction, etc. Table 3 Risk Analysis: Types of Consequences of Failure The 2024 AMP includes a preliminary evaluation of asset risk and criticality. Each asset has been assigned a probability of failure score and consequence of failure score based on available asset data. These risk scores can be used to prioritize maintenance, rehabilitation, and replacement strategies for critical assets. These models have been built in Citywide for continued review, updates, and refinements. Appendix A to E includes risk summaries by asset class and Appendix G details risk models used for each asset category. Levels of Service A level of service (LOS) is a measure of the services that the Township is providing to the community and the nature and quality of those services. Within each asset category in this AMP, technical metrics and qualitative descriptions that measure both technical and community levels of service have been established and measured as data is available. The Township measures the level of service provided at two levels: Community Levels of Service, and Technical Levels of Service. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 15 Community Levels of Service Community levels of service are a simple, plain language description or measure of the service that the community receives. For core asset categories as applicable (Roads, Bridges & Culverts, Water, Wastewater, Stormwater) the province, through O. Reg. 588/17, has provided qualitative descriptions that are required to be included in this AMP. Technical Levels of Service Technical levels of service are a measure of key technical attributes of the service being provided to the community. These include mostly quantitative measures and tend to reflect the impact of the Township's asset management strategies on the physical condition of assets or the quality/capacity of the services they provide. For core asset categories as applicable the province, through O. Reg. 588/17, has also provided technical metrics that are required to be included in this AMP. Current and Proposed Levels of Service Current LOS reflects the current technical LOS for (most often) a group of assets as of a defined past measurement date. In contrast, a Proposed LOS reflects the Municipality's goal for asset performance by a define future date. It is important to note that O. Reg 588/17 does not dictate the proposed LOS values required. Meaning, a Proposed LOS may be maintaining or even reducing current performance. Regardless of what the selected Proposed LOS is, O. Reg 588/17 requires Municipalities to demonstrate the feasibility of the Proposed LOS. This must consider the associated costs, risks, and impact of population and economic activity over the period (O. Reg. 588/17 6,2). The proceeding sections outline O. Reg 588/17 reporting requirements and how the Municipality's AMP meets them, while noting any additional considerations made. 2.4 Scope & Methodology 2.4.1 Asset Categories for this AMP This asset management plan for the Township of Papineau-Cameron is produced in compliance with O. Reg. 588/17. The July 2025 deadline under the regulation requires analysis of proposed levels of service for all asset categories. As reported in the 2024 compliant AMP, Appendix A to E summarizes the state of the infrastructure for the Township's asset portfolio and establishes current levels of service and the associated technical and customer-oriented key metrics. The Asset Management Plan considers the following tax-funded asset categories: Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 16 Figure 6 Tax Funded and Rate Funded Asset Categories 2.4.2 Data Effective Date It is important to note that this plan is based on data as of December 2023; therefore, it represents a snapshot in time using the best available processes, data, and information at the Township. Strategic asset management planning is an ongoing and dynamic process that requires continuous data updates and dedicated data management resources. 2.4.3 Deriving Replacement Costs There are a range of methods to determine the replacement cost of an asset, and some are more accurate and reliable than others. This AMP relies on two methodologies: User-Defined Cost and Cost Per Unit Based on costs provided by municipal staff which could include average costs from recent contracts; data from engineering reports and assessments; staff estimates based on knowledge and experience. Cost Inflation / CPI Tables Historical costs of the assets are inflated based on the Consumer Price Index or Non- Residential Building Construction Price Index. User-defined costs based on reliable sources are a reasonably accurate and reliable way to determine asset replacement costs. Cost inflation is typically used in the absence of reliable replacement cost data. It is a reliable method for recently purchased and/or constructed assets where the total cost is reflective of the actual costs that the Township incurred. As assets age, and new products and technologies become available, cost inflation becomes a less reliable method. 2.4.4 Estimated Service Life & Service Life Remaining The estimated useful life (EUL) of an asset is the period over which the Township expects the asset to be available for use and remain in service before requiring replacement or disposal. The - Road Network - Bridges & Culverts - Facilities - Vehicles - Machinery & Equipment Tax Funded Assets Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 17 EUL for each asset in this AMP was assigned according to the knowledge and expertise of municipal staff and supplemented by existing industry standards when necessary. By using an asset's in-service data and its EUL, the Township can determine the service life remaining (SLR) for each asset. Using condition data and the asset's SLR, the Township can more accurately forecast when it will require replacement. The SLR is calculated as follows: Figure 7 Service Life Remaining Calculation 2.4.5 Reinvestment Rate As assets age and deteriorate, they require additional investment to maintain a state of good repair. The reinvestment of capital funds, through asset renewal or replacement, is necessary to sustain an adequate level of service. The reinvestment rate is a measurement of available or required funding relative to the total replacement cost. By comparing the actual vs. target reinvestment rate the Township can determine the extent of any existing funding gap. The reinvestment rate is calculated as follows: Figure 8 Target Reinvestment Rate Calculation Figure 9 Actual Reinvestment Rate Calculation 2.4.6 Deriving Asset Condition An incomplete or limited understanding of asset conditions can mislead long-term planning and decision-making. Accurate and reliable condition data helps to prevent premature and costly rehabilitation or replacement and ensures that lifecycle activities occur at the right time to maximize asset value and useful life. A condition assessment rating system provides a standardized descriptive framework that allows comparative benchmarking across the Township's asset portfolio. The table below outlines the condition rating system used in this AMP to determine asset condition. This rating system is aligned with the Canadian Core Public Infrastructure Survey which is used to develop the Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 18 Canadian Infrastructure Report Card. When assessed condition data is not available, service life remaining is used to approximate asset condition. Condition Description Criteria Service Life Remaining (%) Very Good Fit for the future Well maintained, good condition, new or recently rehabilitated 80-100 Good Adequate for now Acceptable, generally approaching mid- stage of expected service life 60-80 Fair Requires attention Signs of deterioration, some elements exhibit significant deficiencies 40-60 Poor Increasing potential of affecting service Approaching end of service life, condition below standard, large portion of system exhibits significant deterioration 20-40 Very Poor Unfit for sustained service Near or beyond expected service life, widespread signs of advanced deterioration, some assets may be unusable 0-20 Table 4 Standard Condition Rating Scale The analysis in this AMP is based on assessed condition data only as available. In the absence of assessed condition data, asset age is used as a proxy to determine asset condition. 2.5 Ontario Regulation 588/17 As part of the Infrastructure for Jobs and Prosperity Act, 2015, the Ontario government introduced Regulation 588/17 - Asset Management Planning for Municipal Infrastructure (O. Reg 588/17)1. Along with creating better performing organizations, more liveable and sustainable communities, the regulation is a key, mandated driver of asset management planning and reporting. It places substantial emphasis on current and proposed levels of service and the lifecycle costs incurred in delivering them. Figure 10 below outlines key reporting requirements under O. Reg 588/17 and the associated timelines. 1 O. Reg. 588/17: Asset Management Planning for Municipal Infrastructure https://www.ontario.ca/laws/regulation/170588 Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 19 Figure 10 O. Reg. 588/17 Requirements and Reporting Deadlines 2.5.1 O. Reg. 588/17 Compliance Review The following table identifies the requirements outlined in Ontario Regulation 588/17 for municipalities to meet by July 1, 2025. Next to each requirement a page or section reference is included in addition to any necessary commentary. Requirement O. Reg. 588/17 Section AMP Section Reference Status Growth assumptions Considerations for Proposed LOS S.5(2), 5(i-ii) S.5(2), 6(i-vi) 4.2 Complete Proposed LOS over 10 years for each asset category 6 (1) 1 5.2.5 Complete Why Proposed LOS are Appropriate 6 (1) 2 (i., ii,iii,iv) 5.2.1-5.2.4 Complete Proposed LOS 10-year Breakdown 6 (1) 3 5.2.5 & Appendix A to E Complete Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 20 Proposed LOS Lifecycle Management 6 (1) 4 (i., A,B, C, D) 5.2.3 Complete Proposed LOS Financial Strategy 6 (1) 4 (i.,D,ii.,iii.,iv.) 6 Complete Proposed LOS Risk Management 6 (1), (B) 5.2.2 Complete 2.5.2 General and Extraordinary Assumptions The analysis completed throughout this AMP is based on the best available information and data at the time of the document's publication. It is recognized that the noted assumptions and associated information inputs may change over time, and this may affect the Municipality's ability to meet the Proposed LOS or the accuracy of the Proposed LOS reporting. - Asset condition information is reported based on OSIM reports and internal staff estimates and most associated recommendations including capital investments and maintenance activities. - Asset deterioration is based on the respective EUL and where available the reported assessed condition. It is recognized that assets deterioration will not exactly match the forecasted deterioration rate, but the projections represent the best estimation of future conditions. - Population and economic activity projections are based on the 2021 Canadian census and Come North Conference Report - All financial information is based on asset costs as of December 2022 and 2023 and 2022, 2023 and 2024 budget financial information (i.e. revenues, expenditures, debentures) The cost impacts of inflation on future expenses and/or revenues are not reflected. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 21 3. Portfolio Overview - State of the Infrastructure The state of the infrastructure (SOTI) summarizes the inventory, condition, age profiles, and other key performance indicators for the Township's infrastructure portfolio. These details are presented for all core and non-core asset categories. 3.1 Asset Hierarchy & Data Classification Asset hierarchy explains the relationship between individual assets and their components, and a wider, more expansive network and system. How assets are grouped in a hierarchy structure can impact how data is interpreted. Assets were structured to support meaningful, efficient reporting and analysis. Key category details are summarized at asset segment level. Figure 11 Asset Hierarchy and Data Classification -LCB Roads -Unpaved Roads Road Network -Bridges -Structural Culverts Bridges & Culverts -Equipment Shed -Fire Hall -Public Works Garage -Sand/Salt Dome -Township Office Facilities -Protection Services -Public Works Vehicles -Protection Services -Public Works Machinery & Equipment Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 22 3.2 Portfolio Overview 3.2.1 Total Replacement Cost of Asset Portfolio The five asset categories analyzed in this Asset Management Plan have a total current replacement cost of $9.3 million. This estimate was calculated using user-defined costing, as well as inflation of historical or original costs to current date. This estimate reflects the replacement of historical assets with similar, not necessarily identical, assets available for procurement today. Figure 12 illustrates the replacement cost of each asset category; at 32% of the total portfolio, roads form the largest share of the Township's asset portfolio, followed by Vehicles at 20%. Figure 12 Current Replacement Cost by Asset Category 3.2.2 Condition of Asset Portfolio Figure 13 summarize asset conditions at the portfolio and category levels, respectively. Based on both assessed condition and age-based analysis, 95% of the Township's infrastructure portfolio is in fair or better condition, with the remaining 5% in poor or worse condition. Typically, assets in poor or worse condition may require replacement or major rehabilitation in the immediate or short-term. Targeted condition assessments may help further refine the list of assets that may be candidates for immediate intervention, including potential replacement or reconstruction. Similarly, assets in fair condition should be monitored for disrepair over the medium term. Keeping assets in fair or better condition is typically more cost-effective than addressing assets needs when they enter the latter stages of their lifecycle or decline to a lower condition rating, e.g., poor or worse. Condition data was available for all of the road network, bridges & culverts, vehicles, facilities, and machinery & equipment. Further, when assessed condition data was available, it was projected to current year-end (2023). This 'projected condition' can generate lower condition ratings than those established at the time of the condition assessment. The rate of this deterioration will also depend on lifecycle curves used to project conditions over time. As further illustrated in Figure 13 at the category level, the majority of road assets, vehicles, machinery & equipment, facilities , and half of the bridges & culverts are in fair or better condition, based on in-field condition assessment data. Most vehicles are also in fair or better Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 23 condition, based on recent condition assessments. See Table 5 for details on how condition data was derived for each asset segment. Figure 13 Asset Condition by Asset Category As outlined previously, buildings and facilities are not componentized into their individual major elements and components. This limits the validity of current condition estimates as they are presented only at the 'parent' asset level, such as 'Fire Station #1', or 'Municipal Office'. Source of Condition Data This AMP relies on assessed condition for 95% of assets, based on and weighted by replacement cost. For the remaining assets, age is used as an approximation of condition. Assessed condition data is invaluable in asset management planning as it reflects the true condition of the asset and its ability to perform its functions. Table 5 below identifies the source of condition data used throughout this AMP. Asset Category Asset Segment(s) % of Assets with Assessed Conditions Source of Condition Data Road Network Paved Roads 100% Staff Assessments Bridges & Culverts All 100% 2024 OSIM Report Facilities All 99% Staff Assessments Age-Based Vehicles All 100% Staff Assessments Machinery & Equipment All 100% Staff Assessments Table 5 Source of Condition Data 3.2.3 Service Life Remaining Most assets have six or more years of useful life remaining, based on asset age, available assessed condition data and estimated useful life. By asset category, this varies slightly with bridges and facilities having all assets with over 10 years of life remaining while the other categories have more diversity. This is summarized in Figure 15 below. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 24 Figure 14 Service Life Remaining by Asset Category 3.2.4 Risk Matrix Using the risk equation and preliminary risk models, Figure 15 shows how assets across the different asset categories are stratified within a risk matrix. Figure 15 Risk Matrix: All Assets The analysis shows that based on current risk models, when weighted by replacement cost approximately 16% of the Township's assets, with a current replacement cost of approximately $1.5 million, carry a risk rating of 15 or higher (red) out of 25. Assets in this group may have a high probability of failure based on available condition data and age-based estimates and were most essential to the Township. As new asset attribute information and condition assessment data are integrated with the asset register, asset risk ratings will evolve, resulting in a redistribution of assets within the risk matrix. Staff should also continue to calibrate risk models. We caution that since risk ratings rely on many factors beyond an asset's physical condition or age, assets in a state of disrepair can sometimes be classified as low-risk, despite their poor condition rating. In such cases, although the probability of failure for these assets may be high, their consequence of failure ratings were determined to be low based on the attributes used and the data available. Similarly, assets with very high condition ratings can receive a moderate to high-risk rating despite a low probability of failure. These assets may be deemed as highly critical to the Township based on their costs, economic importance, social significance, and other factors. Continued calibration of an asset's criticality and regular data updates are needed to ensure these models more accurately reflect an asset's actual risk profile. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 25 4. Portfolio Risk & Criticality 4.1 Qualitative Risk The Township has noted key trends, challenges, and risks to service delivery that they are currently facing. The most prominent qualitative risks across all asset categories are: Capital Funding Strategies The timely replacement of Papineau-Cameron's assets is critical to the community. With multiple assets replacements due within a short period of time, a significant amount of funding is needed. As discussed further in Proposed LOS, the Township's existing funding levels are less than the amount required to meet proposed Levels of service. This funding shortfall is expected to lead to increased frequency and severity of asset failures. Asset Data & Information An increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation events can result in flooding and washouts, which negatively impacts the Township's roads and bridges and culverts. This is further exacerbated by freeze-thaw cycles. For example, Cameron Road experienced a severe washout event in recent years. While the Township has since taken measures (i.e. installation of secondary pipe on Cameron Road culvert), the increasing frequency of extreme weather events will continue negatively impact the Township's assets. 4.2 Description of Growth Assumptions The demand for infrastructure and services will change over time based on a combination of internal and external factors. Understanding the key drivers of growth and demand will allow the Township to plan for new infrastructure more effectively, and the upgrade or disposal of existing infrastructure. Increases or decreases in demand can affect what assets are needed and what level of service meets the needs of the community. 4.2.1 East Nipissing Official Plan (June 2021) The East Nipissing Planning Board covers the areas of Papineau-Cameron, Mattawan, and Calvin. The Official Plan has been approved with modifications as of June 26th, 2021. The Official Plan spans a 25-year time horizon (2021-2046) and will be revised no less frequently than 10 years after it has come into effect and every five years thereafter. The Official Plan has been prepared based on four key components: Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 26 1. Community Development 2. Environmental Stewardship 3. Community Health and Safety 4. Resource Management The overall goal is to attain a healthy economic base that supports sustainable and orderly community development while conserving the attributes and resources of the rural area. The Rural Lands include most of Cameron Township and about half of Papineau Township which is endowed with natural resources whose extraction or development, including value-added land-use activities, support the economic base of East Nipissing. Resource-based uses include mineral aggregate extraction, forestry, and agriculture. Servicing development will be principally through individual on-site water and sewage systems. No new municipal water or sewer services are anticipated over the life of the Official Plan (2021- 2046). The Township will be receiving assistance from the Northern Ontario Resource Development Support (NORDS) program to help build infrastructure and promote economic development. The Township will also receive municipal infrastructure support through the Ontario Community Infrastructure Fund (OCIF), which provides funding for communities to renew and rehabilitate critical infrastructure. The following table summarizes the historical population and household statistics for the Municipality of Papineau-Cameron from the StatsCan Census. As the table details, population has remained relatively stagnant over the period of 1996 to 2021. Historical Figures 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 Population 973 997 1,058 978 1,016 982 Population Change N/A 2.5% 6.1% -7.6% 3.9% -3.3% Private Dwellings N/A 510 532 439 514 495 Table 6: Population Statistics 4.2.2 Growth Plan for Northern Ontario (2011) The Growth Plan for Northern Ontario was prepared under Ontario's Places to Grow Act and authorizes the Province to identify and designate growth planning areas. The Growth Plan also authorizes the Province to develop strategic growth plans for the defined planning areas. The six theme areas which the Growth Plan is structured around include economy, people, communities, infrastructure, environment, and Aboriginal peoples. The Papineau-Cameron Official Plan addresses these themes in a variety of ways. The key factors addressed by the Papineau-Cameron Official Plan relating to the growth of the community, in compliance with the Growth Plan for Northern Ontario, include designating areas within the Township of Papineau-Cameron for economic and residential growth, protecting key environmental resources, and providing a local framework to assist in the implementation of regional economic plans. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 27 4.2.3 Regional Growth In 2021 the Come North Conference Report was produced by FedNor and Government of Canada. The document describes short, medium, and long-term objectives for all communities in Northern Ontario as it relates to population growth. According to the report all 11 Census Districts in Northern Ontario (Nipissing, Parry Sound, Manitoulin, Sudbury, Greater Sudbury, Timiskaming, Cochrane, Algoma, Thunder Bay, Rainy River, Kenora) are currently experiencing the following trends: population decline, population aging, or labour shortages. The report highlights a risk of these communities becoming economically unsustainable unless population retention and attraction numbers improve. The risk is the result of the dependency ratio increasing. The dependency ratio is the ratio of people unable to support themselves without assistance; people between the ages of 0 and 14 and 64 and older. The goal is to achieve a dependency ratio of 0.5. As summarized in Figure 16 below, in 1996, every Census District was at or near a 0.5 ratio, by 2016 there were no districts that were below 0.5 and more than half had a ratio in excess of 0.6. The dependency ratio is projected to further increase by 2036 with districts ranging between 0.67 (Greater Sudbury) and 1.03 (Parry Sound). Figure 16: Dependency Ratio Historical and Geographical Summary The Township of Papineau-Cameron is found in the Nipissing District, which is expected to reach a dependency ratio of 0.77. The population trends within the Nipissing District have been fluctuating as seen in the graph below. The following graph from the 2019 Northern Projections Nipissing District Human Capital Series report by the Northern Policy Institute, displays the population trends from 1991 to 2016. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 28 Figure 17: Historic Population Trends The following table, found in the same report, shows population projections in the Nipissing District for the years 2021 to 2041. Year Ages 0-19 Ages 20-64 Ages 65+ Total 2021 16,879 51,301 20,048 88,228 2026 16,780 48,399 23,159 88,338 2031 16,370 46,061 25,876 88,307 2036 16,006 45,516 26,681 88,203 2041 15,727 45,585 26,814 88,126 Table 7: Population Projections Nipissing District The most recent census data from 2021 shows a slight increase in the population, reaching a total of 84,716, which is significantly lower than the projected population. According to census data, a significant population increase is seen in the population of 65 and older and a slight decline in the 0 to 19 and 20 to 64 age ranges: thus, further increasing the dependency ratio. The Town of Papineau-Cameron population projections for the period of 2021 to 2035 show a very slight annual increase of 0.2% or 1.6 additional people per annum. This represents a projected change from 965 in 2021 to 988 persons in 2035. 4.3 Impact of Growth on Lifecycle Activities The District of Nipissing is not expected to experience material population growth in the coming years. This is largely a result of an aging population as illustrated by an increasing dependency ratio as noted above. As a result, it is expected that construction of additional infrastructure (i.e. an expanded road network) is not required and that the Municipality of Papineau Cameron will be able to service any residential growth by maintaining the existing infrastructure. Lifecycle costs in this report, including in Proposed Levels of Service, therefore do not reflect any net new infrastructure assets. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 29 5. Proposed Levels of Service 5.1 Overview 5.1.1 O. Reg. 588/17 Proposed Levels of Service Requirements Current LOS reflects the current technical LOS for (most often) a group of assets as of a defined past measurement date. In contrast, a Proposed LOS reflects the Municipality's goal for asset performance by a define future date. It is important to note that O. Reg 588/17 does not dictate the proposed LOS values required. Meaning, a Proposed LOS may be maintaining or even reducing current performance. O. Reg. 588/17 requires Municipalities to report on Proposed Levels of Service, including an overview of the following: 1. Proposed LOS options (i.e. increase, decrease, or maintain current LOS) and the risks associated with these options. 2. How the proposed LOS may differ from current LOS. 3. Whether the proposed LOS are achievable. 4. The municipality's ability to afford proposed LOS. Additionally, a lifecycle management and financial strategy to support the proposed LOS must be identified for a period of 10 years with specific reporting on: 1. Identification of lifecycle activities needed to provide the proposed LOS. 2. Annual costs over the next 10 years to achieve the proposed LOS. 3. Identification of proposed funding projected to be available. 5.2 Proposed LOS Options & Analysis 5.2.1 Setting Proposed LOS Options: Process and Considerations To determine three suitable proposed LOS scenarios to analyze, a three-step review process was conducted. This is summarized below: 1. Strategic Document Review Relevant strategic documents were reviewed to identify infrastructure and asset management priorities and goals which may help guide suitable Proposed LOS scenarios. These documents included: A. Housing Targets: District of Nipissing Social Services Administration Board o Detailed overview of existing and forecasted population projections for the period of 2021-2035 o Growth projections signal anticipated future demands for infrastructure, a required consideration in Proposed LOS analysis B. Mattawa & Area: Community Safety Well-Being Plan Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 30 o Produced by Papineau Cameron and the surrounding municipalities (Township of Mattawa, Municipality of Calvin, Municipality of Mattawan) the plan seeks to promote a healthy, safe, and economically vibrant community o A coordinated effort by the surrounding municipalities signals that shared services are a viable lifecycle management strategy 2. Resident Engagement The Township of Papineau-Cameron issued a resident satisfaction survey in 2023. Surveys were mailed with the Spring 2023 tax bills to 868 households. In total, 42 survey responses were submitted, representing a 4.8% response rate. The survey contained a total of 15 questions regarding satisfaction levels with various municipal services and provided an opportunity for additional feedback. Findings of relevance to setting proposed LOS included the following: Priority Areas of Investment o Economic growth was identified as the most important area of focus signaling the importance of balancing infrastructure investment levels with ratepayer affordability o Recreation and senior care were identified as priority areas of investment; consultations with Township staff later revealed that recreation services are primarily supported through shared services with neighboring municipalities and that senior care is provided through a co-operatively owned non-municipal seniors' home. Therefore, investment to recreation and senior care assets owned by the Township was deemed non-applicable. o Investment in the road network, including repairs, was identified as an infrastructure priority. Existing Satisfaction levels o Most respondents indicated that they have a very good or good quality of life, suggesting that the existing levels of service provided are generally accepted. o 86% of respondents indicated they were very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with road maintenance and snow removal, suggesting that the current level of service for the roads is generally accepted 3. Discovery Sessions Findings from the resident questionnaire, the Housing Targets, and Community Safety and Wellbeing Plan were consolidated, and a meeting was held with Township staff to discuss. Additional considerations for setting Proposed LOS were confirmed and identified, specifically: o While the survey results provide good insights some caution about their quality of representation must be taken due to the sample size o At this time staff resourcing is not identified as a barrier to increased levels of service o Through shared services with neighboring municipalities, Papineau-Cameron residents can access recreation services; development of Papineau-Cameron Township recreation services is not a priority considering initial investment requirements against the quality and affordability of the existing arrangement. o Following the loss of a pulp and paper mill about 15 years ago, the Township's tax base is almost entirely residential. Tax-based revenue increases are generally not palatable to Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 31 rate payers and rarely supported by the council. Increased infrastructure investment is most likely only to be funded from upper levels of government (i.e. Grants and transfer payments). o While the Township's exiting debt payments are scheduled to end in 2028, additional debts are expected to be incurred at that time to fund equipment purchases at the Township's new landfill. Therefore, reallocating debt payments to the capital budget is not anticipated. Considering all the above, the following three scenarios were selected for analysis and consideration as a Proposed LOS: Table 8: Annual Capital Budgets by PLOS Scenario Scenario Annual Capital Budget Amount 1 $456,000 annually 2 $320,000 in year one; increased by $27,000 annually for 5 years (ending at $456,000) 3 $320,000 annually The above scenarios represent the Proposed LOS options. General infrastructure and operational risks associated with each scenario option are summarized in section 5.2.2. below. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 32 5.2.2 Proposed LOS Options: Analysis Several key areas of consideration were deployed in the selection of the Proposed LOS. These primarily were: 1. Associated Risks 2. Affordability 3. Achievability The proceeding sections outline the above noted considerations and analysis information. Proposed LOS Options: Risks Table 8 below details the qualitative risks associated with each of the Proposed LOS and the anticipated relative severity of each scenario. Table 9: Proposed LOS Option Risks Risks Associated with Proposed LOS Options Applicable Scenario(s) Relative Severity Risk Defined 1 High Reliance on Grants Increased capital funding requirements are not palatable to ratepayers and the additional investment can only be funded by conditional grants, as they become available. While grants and senior government funding reduce the burden on rate payers, they are considered an unsustainable revenue source. The Township will be more vulnerable to changes in provincial and federal policy and funding programs. 2 Mid 3 lowest 3 High Increased Infrastructure Backlog The average annual capital investment is less than the average annual capital requirement. Therefore, for many years assets are insufficiently funded, and lifecycle management is not optimal. Reduced and/or deferred lifecycle activities threaten reliability and increase the potential for costly (and unbudgeted) repairs to maintain service. 2 Mid 1 Lowest 3 High Increased Rate of Asset Failure Underinvestment in assets will result in a lower average condition and an increased rate of asset failure. This will affect the reliability of infrastructure, and the quality of service provided. 2 Mid 1 Lowest Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 33 3 High Increased Severity of Asset Failure Underinvestment in assets is correlated to an increased severity of asset failure. This may mean that assets are beyond the point of repair and require premature replacement. In some instances, this may result in a period where the Township does not have functional assets that are critical to their operations. 2 Mid 1 Lowest Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 34 In addition to the above noted qualitative risks, there are measurable risks held by each asset. Risks are quantified based on the respective probability and consequence of asset failure models outlined in Section 4 and detailed in Appendix G. Figure 18 below illustrates the average portfolio risk under each scenario over time. Scenario one has the lowest average risk but by a very small margin to scenario two (8.99 vs. 9.01); scenario three has an average risk score of 10.91, which is considerably higher than average risk for scenario 1 and 2. This is summarized in Table 9 below. Table 10: Average Risk by Scenario Risk is dynamic and changes over time. Figure 18 below illustrates projected risk over time for each scenario. Scenario Average Risk 1 8.99/25 2 9.01/25 3 10.91/25 Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 35 Figure 18: Average Risk Over Time Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 36 Proposed LOS Options: Affordability & Strategic Alignment The Discovery session provided several key insights that guided priority areas of investment. Notable items are: o Importance of balancing infrastructure investment levels with ratepayer affordability o Investment in the road network, including repairs, was identified as an infrastructure priority. o 86% of respondents indicated they were very satisfied or somewhat satisfied with road maintenance and snow removal, suggesting that the current level of service for the roads is generally accepted Considering the above, investment levels under each scenario were strategically allocated based on asset category. All the identified capital investment needs for Roads and Bridges and Structural Culverts are funded while the lower priority asset categories do not receive full funding. Scenarios 1 and 2 provide a higher level of investment compared to total need across all asset categories and overall then investment levels under scenario 3. Table 11: Scenarios & Asset Investment Levels Asset Category Scenario 1: % of Total Need Funded (by year 1) Scenario 2: % of Total Need Funded2 (by year 5) Scenario 3: % of Total Need Funded Vehicles 76% 76% 41% Machinery and Equipment 75% 75% 39% Buildings 78% 78% 43% Road 100% 100% 78% Bridges & Culverts 100% 100% 100% Total 87% 87% 60% The Financial Strategy (Section 6) provides details into affordability analysis of the selected option. Some key considerations when reviewing all Proposed LOS options are: o The Township is limited in their available revenue sources; their tax base is almost entirely residential and alternative revenue streams are unlikely o While there are debentures scheduled to expire soon, the Township anticipates taking on new debt shortly. Therefore, additional capital funding from paydown of debt is not anticipated. o As noted in the discovery session, the Township does not realistically foresee the ability to increase the capital budget to $456,000 via tax base revenues. o Therefore, the proposed LOS is only affordable where there is additional funding from other levels of government. As noted in Table 8 (Section 5.2.2.) this is an identified risk. The Township continues to apply for grant funding from other levels of government. This, or other stable government transfers (e.g. OCIFs), are required to afford the proposed LOS. 2 Percentage funded is based on the Average Annual Requirement as reported in the 2024 Asset Management Plan. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 37 Proposed LOS Option: Additional Considerations Achievability Scenario 1: The capital funding increases very significantly in the first year. There may be some challenges in procuring and mobilizing investment, however these are not considered very severe in nature. Scenario 2: The annual increase in capital funding is a modest amount and phased gradually over time. With the existing staff capacity to execute additional work there was no expressed concern about executability. Scenario 3: There is no change in investment levels under this scenario. The Township does not anticipate issues in executing on this level of service. 5.3 Selected Proposed LOS The three above noted scenarios were analyzed and results were reviewed, With consideration for achievability, risks, and affordability, the Township of Papineau Cameron selected Scenario 2 as their Proposed Level of service. The financial strategy and 10-year capital forecasts reported herein reflect scenario 2. The table below identifies the required capital funding to meet the proposed LOS targets over a ten-year period. Capital budget is prioritized to roads and bridges which reach 100% of their average annual requirement by year five. Otherwise, capital investment is allocated across each asset category proportionally to its average annual capital requirement. Since vehicles, machinery and equipment assets are a lower priority to roads and bridges, their average annual capital investment requirement is funded at between 75 and 78% by year five. The capital investment requirements by year and asset category are summarized below. As noted, capital investment is increased for the first five years and then stabilizes. Table 12: Proposed LOS Capital Funding Requirements Required Annual Capital Funding ($'000) Asset Category '25 '26 '27 '28 '29-34 Vehicles 84 88 92 96 100 Scenario 2: Capital budget begins at $320,000 in year one; increased by $27,000 annually for 5 years (ending at $456,000 Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 38 Machinery & Equipment 81 84 88 91 95 Buildings 15 16 16 17 18 Road 132 147 162 177 192 Bridges & Culverts 35 39 43 47 51 Total Capital 347 374 402 429 456 The above table accounts for both current and future expenditures to achieve and maintain the proposed levels of service. This requires a combination of capital spending and savings (i.e. reserves) to ensure future large expenditures can be funded. It is important to note that an AMP is a dynamic document which should be reviewed regularly to ensure up-to-date information is incorporated including accurate replacement costs, changes in inventory, changes in available funding sources, and reflection on progress made on previous recommendations. 5.2.4 Required Lifecycle Strategies The following tables details the anticipated lifecycle strategy changes that are required to meet the proposed LOS: Asset Category Lifecycle Changes to Reach PLOS AMP Section Road Network No lifecycle changes, annual capital spending increase only 7.6 Bridges & Culverts No lifecycle changes, annual capital spending increase only 7.11 Facilities No lifecycle changes, annual capital spending increase only 7.16 Vehicles No lifecycle changes, annual capital spending increase only 7.21 Machinery & Equipment No lifecycle changes, annual capital spending increase only 7.26 Changes to Community and Technical Levels of Service for Scenario 1 The Township of Papineau-Cameron does not anticipate any changes to qualitative community levels of services for any of the asset categories included within this AMP. All asset categories will see adjustments to their technical levels of service over time, particularly relating to capital reinvestment rate and average condition of assets. Proposed LOS are informed by the above noted levels of investment; these values are summarized in the next section. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 39 5.2.5 Proposed LOS Over 10 Years The proposed LOS is based on each asset category's metrics and the funding levels as discussed earlier. Table X below summarizes the proposed LOS overtime based on this analysis. Table 13: Proposed LOS Metrics LOS Metric 2022 LOS '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 Road Network Paved Roads: Average Condition (%)3 74 63 58 55 52 52 52 46 48 40 47 40 Bridges & Structural Culverts Briges & Culverts: Average Condition (%) 70;60 58 56 54 52 51 49 47 45 58 56 55 Facilities % Of facilities that are in good or very good condition 100 100 100 100 40 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 % of Facilities in fair condition 0 0 0 0 60 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 % Of facilities that are in poor or very poor condition 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Average Condition (%) 0 67 65 63 61 59 57 55 53 51 49 47 Vehicles 3 The condition of assets--especially where estimated based on age relative to expected service life-- will deteriorate over time. Declining condition is not necessarily a reflection of poor maintenance or asset functionality. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 40 LOS Metric 2022 LOS '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 % of vehicles that are in good/very good condition 92 50 50 63 50 13 13 50 50 38 13 % of vehicles that are in fair condition 8 25 38 38 25 38 25 38 38 25 38 % of vehicles that are in poor/very poor condition 0 25 12.5 0.0 25.0 50.0 62.5 12.5 12.5 37.5 50.0 Machinery & Equipment % of assets that are in good/very good condition 98 10 10 20 10 0 10 20 30 30 40 % of assets that are in fair condition 2 70 50 50 30 20 10 0 0 0 20 % of assets that are in poor/very poor condition 0 20 40 30 60 80 80 80 70 70 40 Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 41 Financial Strategy The Township is allocating approximately $220,000 towards capital projects, on an annual basis To meet the Proposed LOS there is an average annual capital requirement and funding gap of $141,000 For tax-funded assets, we recommend increasing tax revenues by 0.5% each year for the next 15 years to achieve the proposed levels of service Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 42 6. Financial Strategy Overview For an asset management plan to be effective and meaningful, it must be integrated with financial planning and long-term budgeting. The development of a comprehensive financial plan will allow Township of Papineau-Cameron to identify the financial resources required for sustainable asset management based on existing asset inventories, proposed levels of service, and projected growth requirements. The Township's 2024 AMP identified the financial requirements for: a. Existing assets b. Existing service levels c. Requirements of contemplated changes in service levels (none identified in the 2024 plan) d. Requirements of anticipated growth (none identified) This plan (2025 AMP) identifies the financial requirements to meet the identified proposed LOS. Like the 2024 AMP it is based on the financial requirements for existing assets, however the required funding is based on meeting the proposed LOS (as summarized in Section 5.1) with consideration for any additional financial impacts from economic and population growth. The financial plan considers and accounts for traditional and non-traditional sources of municipal funding, which are: 2. Use of traditional sources of municipal funds: a. Tax levies b. User fees c. Debt d. Development charges 3. Use of non-traditional sources of municipal funds: a. Reallocated budgets b. Partnerships c. Procurement methods 4. Use of Senior Government Funds: a. CCBF (Formerly Gas Tax) b. Annual grants Note: Periodic grants are normally not included due to Provincial requirements for firm commitments. However, if moving a specific project forward is wholly dependent on receiving a one-time grant, the replacement cost included in the financial strategy is the net of such grant being received. If the financial plan component results in a funding shortfall, the Province requires the inclusion of a specific plan as to how the impact of the shortfall will be managed. In determining the legitimacy of a funding shortfall, the Province may evaluate a Township's approach to the following: Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 43 1. To reduce financial requirements, consideration has been given to revising service levels downward. 2. All asset management and financial strategies have been considered. For example: a. If a zero-debt policy is in place, is it warranted? If not the use of debt should be considered. b. Do user fees reflect the cost of the applicable service? If not, increased user fees should be considered. 6.1 Proposed LOS: Annual Requirements & Capital Funding The annual requirements represent the amount the Township should allocate annually to each asset category to meet the proposed LOS. For the Township of Papineau-Cameron, the proposed LOS provides for an annual capital investment of $456,000 which is (by year 5) equal to 87% of the annual capital investment required ($526,000) to replace each asset when it's reached its useful life. Generally, this means that under this proposed LOS assets are being replaced later than recommended. However, it should be noted that this level of investment is a significant increase from the current level of investment ($315,000) and therefore the proposed LOS is still higher than it would be if existing levels of capital funding continued. For most asset categories the annual requirement has been calculated based on a "replacement only" scenario, in which capital costs are only incurred at the construction and replacement of each asset. However, for the Road Network, lifecycle management strategies have been developed to identify capital costs that are realized through strategic rehabilitation and renewal of the Township's roads. 6.1.1 Annual Funding Available Based on a historical analysis of sustainable capital funding sources, the Township is committing approximately $315,000 towards capital projects per year. Given the annual capital requirement of $456,000 under the selected proposed LOS scenario, there is currently a funding gap of $141,000 annually. 6.1.2 Funding Objective We have developed a scenario that would enable Papineau-Cameron to achieve full funding required to meet the proposed LOS within 1 to 20 years for the following assets: 1. Tax Funded Assets: Road Network, Bridges & Culverts, Facilities, Vehicles, and Machinery & Equipment Note: For the purposes of this AMP, we have excluded gravel roads since they are a perpetual maintenance asset and end of life replacement calculations do not normally apply. If gravel roads are maintained properly, they can theoretically have a limitless service life. For each scenario developed we have included strategies, where applicable, regarding the use of cost containment and funding opportunities. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 44 6.2 Financial Profile: Tax Funded Assets 6.2.1 Current Funding Position The following tables show, by asset category, Papineau-Cameron's average annual asset investment requirements, current funding positions4, and funding increases required to achieve full funding and proposed LOS funding levels. Table 14: Proposed LOS Current Funding Position Asset Category Avg. Annual Requirement Avg. Annual Requirement (PLOS; yr 5) Annual Funding Available Annual Deficit Taxes Gas Tax OCIF Total Available AAR PLOS Bridges & Culverts $51,000 $51,000 $25,149 $54,000 $79,149 -28,149 -28,149 Facilities $23,000 $18,000 $11,342 $11,342 11,658 6,658 Machinery & Equipment $127,000 $95,000 $62,626 $62,626 64,374 32,374 Road Network $192,000 $192,000 $50,791 $46,000 $96,791 95,209 95,209 Vehicles $132,000 $100,000 $65,092 $65,092 66,908 34,908 Total $525,000 $456,000 $215,000 $100,000 $315,000 210,000 141,000 To meet the proposed LOS, the average annual investment requirement for the above categories is $456,000. Annual revenue currently allocated to these assets for capital purposes is $315,000 leaving an annual deficit of $141,000. Put differently, the current level of investment is 69% of the investment needed to achieve the proposed LOS. 4 It is noted that the Township may be financially constrained by operating and/or capital deficits held by the East Nipissing Home for the Aged, also known as Casselhome. This may impact the annual funding available for infrastructure asset investment. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 45 6.2.2 Full Funding Requirements In 2022, Township of Papineau-Cameron has annual tax revenues of $1,633,783. As illustrated in the following table, without consideration of any other sources of revenue or cost containment strategies, full funding and funding to meet the proposed LOS would require the following tax change over time: Table 15: Tax Changes Required Asset Category Tax Change Required for Full Funding Tax Change Required for PLOS Bridges & Culverts -1.8% -1.7% Facilities 0.7% 0.4% Machinery & Equipment 3.9% 2.0% Road Network 5.8% 5.8% Vehicles 4.0% 2.1% Total 12.8% 8.6% The following changes in costs and/or revenues over the next number of years should also be considered in the financial strategy: a) Papineau-Cameron's debt payments for these asset categories will be decreasing by $134,000 by 2029 Table 16: Recommended Reallocations Without Capturing Changes With Capturing Changes 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years 20 Years 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years 20 Years Infrastructure Deficit (PLOS) $141,000 $141,000 $141,000 $141,000 $141,000 $141,000 $141,000 $141,000 Change in Debt Costs N/A N/A N/A N/A -$134,000 -$134,000 -$134,000 -$134,000 Change in OCIF Grants N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Resulting Infrastructure Deficit: $116,000 $116,000 $116,000 $116,000 -$6,000 -$6,000 -$6,000 -$6,000 Tax Increase Required 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% -0.4% Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 46 Our recommendations include capturing the above changes and allocating them to the infrastructure deficit outlined above. The table below outlines this concept and presents several options: Annually: 1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 47 6.2.3 Financial Strategy Recommendations Although Papineau-Cameron's current debt is due to expire within the next 5 years, it is anticipated that the Township will incur additional debt at the time of expiry and for this reason we do not recommend considering any of the options that capture changes in debt costs above. With all things considered, we recommend the 15-year option. This involves proposed levels of service being achieved over 15 years by: a) Increasing tax revenues by 0.5% each year for the next 15 years solely for the purpose of phasing in the proposed levels of service for asset categories covered in this section of the AMP. b) Reallocating appropriate revenue from categories in a surplus position to those in a deficit position. c) Allocating the current OCIF revenue as outlined previously. d) Increasing existing and future infrastructure budgets by the applicable inflation index on an annual basis in addition to the deficit phase-in. Notes: 1. As noted above, since the Township is expected to incur additional debt once the current outstanding debt expires, we have not considered any expected changes in debt costs in our recommendation. However, any debt cost reductions that are realized net of any additional debt taken on once the current debt expires should be reallocated to the infrastructure deficit as outlined in the scenario in the table above that captures changes in debt costs. 2. As in the past, periodic senior government infrastructure funding will most likely be available during the phase-in period. By Provincial AMP rules, this periodic funding cannot be incorporated into an AMP unless there are firm commitments in place. We have included OCIF formula-based funding, if applicable, since this funding is a multi-year commitment5. Prioritizing future projects will require the current data to be replaced by condition-based data. Although our recommendations include no further use of debt, the results of the condition-based analysis may require otherwise. 5 The Township should take advantage of all available grant funding programs and transfers from other levels of government. While OCIF has historically been considered a sustainable source of funding, the program is currently undergoing review by the provincial government. Depending on the outcome of this review, there may be changes that impact its availability. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 48 6.3 Use of Debt Debt can be strategically utilized as a funding source with in the long-term financial plan. The benefits of leveraging debt for infrastructure planning include: a) the ability to stabilize tax & user rates when dealing with variable and sometimes uncontrollable factors b) equitable distribution of the cost/benefits of infrastructure over its useful life c) a secure source of funding d) flexibility in cash flow management Debt management policies and procedures with limitations and monitoring practices should be considered when reviewing debt as a funding option. In efforts to mitigate increasing commodity prices and inflation, interest rates have been rising. Sustainable funding models that include debt need to incorporate the now current realized risk of rising interest rates. The following graph shows the historical changes to the lending rates: Figure 19: Historic Interest Rate A change in 15-year rates from 5% to 7% would change the premium from 45% to 65%. Such a change would have a significant impact on a financial plan. The following tables outline how Papineau-Cameron has historically used debt for investing in the asset categories as listed. There is currently $324,000 of debt outstanding for the assets covered by this AMP with corresponding principal and interest payments of $134,000 in 2024. Table 17: Use of Debt in the Last 5 Years Asset Category Current Debt Outstanding Use of Debt in the Last Five Years 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Bridges & Culverts Facilities 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% Historical Prime Business Interest Rate Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 49 Machinery & Equipment $55,000 Road Network Vehicles $269,000 $23,600 $235,000 $300,000 Total Tax Funded: $324,000 $0 $23,600 $235,000 $300,000 0 Table 18: Future Debt Payments Asset Category Principal & Interest Payments in the Next Ten Years 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2034 Bridges & Culverts Facilities Machinery & Equipment $14,000 $14,000 $14,000 $14,000 $7,000 Road Network Vehicles $120,000 $64,000 $64,000 $32,000 Total Tax Funded: $134,000 $78,000 $78,000 $46,000 $7,000 0 0 The revenue options outlined in this plan allow Papineau-Cameron to fully fund its long-term infrastructure requirements without further use of debt. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 50 6.4 Use of Reserves 6.4.1 Available Reserves Reserves play a critical role in long-term financial planning. The benefits of having reserves available for infrastructure planning include: a) the ability to stabilize tax rates when dealing with variable and sometimes uncontrollable factors b) financing one-time or short-term investments c) accumulating the funding for significant future infrastructure investments d) managing the use of debt e) normalizing infrastructure funding requirement By asset category, the table below outlines the details of the reserves currently available to Papineau-Cameron. Table 19: Reserve Balances Asset Category Balance at December 31, 2023 Bridges & Culverts $153,000 Facilities $53,000 Machinery & Equipment $53,000 Road Network $111,000 Vehicles $53,000 Total Tax Funded: $423,000 There is considerable debate in the municipal sector as to the appropriate level of reserves that a Township should have on hand. There is no clear guideline that has gained wide acceptance. Factors that municipalities should consider when determining their capital reserve requirements include: a) breadth of services provided b) age and condition of infrastructure c) use and level of debt d) economic conditions and outlook e) internal reserve and debt policies. These reserves are available for use by applicable asset categories during the phase-in period to full funding. This coupled with Papineau-Cameron's judicious use of debt in the past, allows the scenarios to assume that, if required, available reserves and debt capacity can be used for high priority and emergency infrastructure investments in the short- to medium-term. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 51 7. Recommendations & Key Considerations 7.1 Financial Strategies 1 Increasing tax revenues by 0.5% each year for the next 15 years solely for the purpose of phasing in the proposed levels of service for asset categories covered in this section of the AMP. 2 Reallocating appropriate revenue from categories in a surplus position to those in a deficit position. 3 Allocating the current OCIF revenue as outlined previously. 4 Increasing existing and future infrastructure budgets by the applicable inflation index on an annual basis in addition to the deficit phase-in. 7.2 Asset Data 1. Continuously review, refine, and calibrate lifecycle and risk profiles to better reflect actual practices and improve capital projections. In particular: a. the timing of various lifecycle events, the triggers for treatment, anticipated impacts of each treatment, and costs b. the various attributes used to estimate the likelihood and consequence of asset failures, and their respective weightings 2. Asset management planning is highly sensitive to replacement costs. Periodically update replacement costs based on recent projects, invoices, or estimates, as well as condition assessments, or any other technical reports and studies. Material and labour costs can fluctuate due to local, regional, and broader market trends, and substantially so during major world events. Accurately estimating the replacement cost of like-for-like assets can be challenging. Ideally, several recent projects over multiple years should be used. Staff judgement and historical data can help attenuate extreme and temporary fluctuations in cost estimates and keep them realistic. 3. Like replacement costs, an asset's established serviceable life can have dramatic impacts on all projections and analyses, including condition, long-range forecasting, and financial recommendations. Periodically reviewing and updating these values to better reflect in- field performance and staff judgement is recommended. 7.3 Risk & Levels of Service 1. Risk models and matrices can play an important role in identifying high-value assets, and developing an action plan which may include repair, rehabilitation, replacement, or further evaluation through condition assessments. As a result, project selection and the development of multi-year capital plans can become more strategic and objective. Initial models have been built into Citywide for all asset groups. These models reflect current Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 52 data, which was limited. As the data evolves and new attribute information is obtained, these models should also be refined and updated. 2. On a regular, annual basis measure the current LOS for each metric and chart this against the proposed LOS. Where there are significant differences between the two, work to understand what the differences are and why they have occurred. As necessary adjust lifecycle activities to support achievement of proposed LOS. 3. Staff should monitor evolving local, regional, and environmental trends to identify factors that may shape the demand and delivery of infrastructure programs. These can include population growth, and the nature of population growth; climate change and extreme weather events; and economic conditions and the local tax base. This data can also be used to review service level targets. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 53 Appendices Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 54 Appendix A: Road Network The Township's road network has a current replacement cost of more than $1.8 million, distributed primarily between paved and unpaved roads. 7.4 Inventory & Valuation Table 19 below summarizes the quantity and current replacement cost of the Township's various road network assets as managed in its primary asset management register, Citywide. Segment Quantity Unit of Measure Replacement Cost Primary RC Method Unpaved Roads 72.87 Kilometers Not Planned for Replacement6 Cost/Unit LCB Roads 18.48 Kilometers $1,801,800 Cost/Unit TOTAL $1,801,800 Table 20 Detailed Asset Inventory: Road Network Figure 20 Portfolio Valuation: Road Network 7.5 Asset Condition & Age The table below identifies the current average condition, the average age, and the estimated useful life for each asset segment. The average condition (%) is a weighted value based on replacement cost. Table 21: Condition & Age Summary: Roads Asset Segment Estimated Useful Life (Years) Average Age (Years) Average Condition LCB Roads 12 83 Years7 76% (Good) 6 Gravel roads undergo perpetual operating and maintenance activities. If maintained properly, they can theoretically have a limitless service life. 7 All road assets currently have an in-service date of 1940. This is because Papineau-Cameron does not know the initial construction date of its roads. While the in-service dates are not accurate, Papineau-Cameron has gone through the exercise of updating its roads Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 55 The graph below visually illustrates the average condition for each asset segment on a very good to very poor. Figure 21 Asset Condition: Road Network by Segment 7.6 Current Approach to Lifecycle Management The condition or performance of most assets will deteriorate over time. This process is affected by a range of factors including asset's characteristics, location, utilization, maintenance history and environment. The following lifecycle strategies have been developed as a proactive approach to managing the lifecycle of LCB and unpaved roads. Instead of allowing the roads to deteriorate until replacement is required, strategic rehabilitation is expected to extend the service life of roads at a lower total cost. Paved Roads (LCB) Event Name Event Class Event Trigger Double Surface Treatment Rehabilitation Condition (50) Single Surface Treatment Rehabilitation Condition (50) Full Reconstruction Replacement Condition (20-30) Table 22 Lifecycle Management Strategy: Road Network (LCB Roads) condition and is utilizing institutional knowledge and assessed condition, as opposed to relying on the age of an asset to forecast schedule rehab/replacement events. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 56 Table 23: Lifecycle Management Strategy: Unpaved Roads 8 Documented operating and maintenance activities. If maintained properly, unpaved roads can theoretically have a limitless service life. Unpaved Roads8 Event Name Event Class Event Trigger Grading Maintenance Annually Dust Suppressant Maintenance Annually Re-Gravelling Rehabilitation Every 5-7 Years Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 57 7.7 Risk Analysis The risk matrix below is generated using available asset data, including condition, service life remaining, replacement costs, traffic data, and road class. The risk ratings for assets without useful attribute data were calculated using only condition, service life remaining, and their replacement costs. The matrix stratifies assets based on their individual probability and consequence of failure, each scored from 1 to 5. Their product generates a risk index ranging from 1-25. Assets with the highest criticality and likelihood of failure receive a risk rating of 25; those with lowest probability of failure and lowest criticality carry a risk rating of 1. As new data and information is gathered, the Township may consider integrating relevant information that improves confidence in the criteria used to assess asset risk and criticality. These risk models have been built into the Township's Asset Management Database (Citywide Assets). See Risk & Criticality section for further details on approach used to determine asset risk ratings and classifications. Figure 22 Risk Matrix: Road Network 7.8 Levels of Service The tables that follow summarize the Township's current levels of service with respect to prescribed KPIs under Ontario Regulation 588/17, as well as any additional performance measures that the Township selected for this AMP. 7.8.1 Community Levels of Service Service Attribute Qualitative Description Current LOS (2023) Scope Description, which may include maps, of the road network in the municipality and its level of connectivity See Appendix B Quality Description or images that illustrate the different levels of road class pavement condition In absence of a third-party Roads Needs Study, Papineau-Cameron staff have updated its LCB roads using the following internal condition scale: Condition Rating Very Good 80-100 Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 58 Good 60-80 Fair 40-60 Poor 20-40 Very Poor 0-20 Table 24 O. Reg. 588/17 Community Levels of Service: Road Network 7.8.2 Technical Levels of Service Service Attribute Technical Metric Current LOS (2023) Scope Lane-km of arterial roads (MMS classes 1 and 2) per land area (km/km2) N/A Lane-km of collector roads (MMS classes 3 and 4) per land area (km/km2) 0.029 Lane-km of local roads (MMS classes 5 and 6) per land area (km/km2) 0.0410 Quality Average pavement condition index for paved roads in the municipality 74% Average surface condition for unpaved roads in the municipality (e.g., excellent, good, fair, poor) Good Table 25 O. Reg. 588/17 Technical Levels of Service: Road Network Proposed Levels of Service: Road Network As detailed in section 5 Proposed LOS, the Municipality ran multiple scenarios to determine an achievable, affordable, and appropriate proposed LOS. Based on the analysis completed, the Municipality selected Scenario 211. 9 With the number of lanes not known, an assumption of 2 was used in this calculation. 10 With the number of lanes not known, an assumption of 2 was used in this calculation. 11 Scenario 2: Capital budget begins at $320,000 in year one; increased by $27,000 annually for 5 years (ending at $456,000) Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 59 The following graph summarizes the projected average condition for paved roads between 2025 and 2034. Projected condition is based on the lifecycle management strategy and is confined by a set capital budget further detailed in Section 5 Proposed LOS. The following table details the proposed LOS for the condition of paved road assets over a ten- year period for the road network. LOS Metric '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 Paved Roads: Average Condition (PLOS, %)12 63 58 55 52 52 52 46 48 40 47 40 Unpaved roads are expected to fluctuate in condition from year to year but generally through the identified lifecycle approach they remain in good condition. 12 The condition of assets--especially where estimated based on age relative to expected service life-- will deteriorate over time. Declining condition is not necessarily a reflection of poor maintenance or asset functionality. Figure 23: Road Proposed LOS- Condition Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 60 7.8.3 Recommendations Asset Inventory - Review and update replacement costing details on a 1-2-year cycle, utilizing cost/unit pricing, to ensure the Road Network's valuation stays up to date. Condition Assessment Strategies - Update condition information regularly, as it becomes available, to ensure capital forecasts are reliable. - The Township should consider utilizing a third-party engineering/consulting firm to conduct a formal Roads Needs Study. Lifecycle Management Strategies - Review and update lifecycle management strategies (triggers, costing, impact, etc.) for the Township's LCB roads. Risk Management Strategies - Implement risk-based decision-making as part of asset management planning and budgeting processes. This should include the regular review of high-risk assets to determine appropriate risk mitigation strategies. - Review risk models (when applicable), on a regular basis and adjust according to an evolving understanding of the probability and consequences of asset failure. Levels of Service - Continue to measure current levels of service in accordance with the metrics identified in O. Reg. 588/17 and those metrics that the Township believes to provide meaningful and reliable inputs into asset management planning. - On a regular, annual basis measure the current LOS for each metric and chart this against the proposed LOS. Where there are significant differences between the two, work to understand what the differences are and why they have occurred. As necessary adjust lifecycle activities to support achievement of proposed LOS. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 61 Appendix B: Bridges & Culverts The Township's transportation network also includes bridges and structural culverts, with a current replacement cost of $3 million. 7.9 Inventory & Valuation Table 26 below summarizes the quantity and current replacement cost of bridges and culverts. The Township owns and manages two bridges and 11 structural culverts. Segment Quantity Unit of Measure Replacement Cost Primary RC Method Bridges 2 Assets $686,123 CPI Culverts 11 Components $2,329,598 CPI TOTAL $3,015,721 Table 26 Detailed Asset Inventory: Bridges & Culverts Figure 24 Portfolio Valuation: Bridges & Culverts 7.10 Asset Condition & Age The table below identifies the current average condition, the average age, and the estimated useful life for each asset segment. The average condition (%) is a weighted value based on replacement cost. Table 27: Age and Condition Information Bridges & Culverts Asset Segment Estimated Useful Life (Years) Average Age (Years) Average Condition Bridges 75 42 Years 70% (Good) Culverts 50 15 Years 8 Months 60% (Good) Average 19 Years 9 Months 62% (Good) Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 62 The graph below visually illustrates the average condition for each asset segment on a very good to very poor scale. Figure 25: Condition Summary Bridges & Culverts To ensure that the Township's Bridges & Culverts continue to provide an acceptable level of service, it should monitor the average condition of all assets. If the average condition declines, staff should re-evaluate their lifecycle management strategy to determine what combination of maintenance, rehabilitation, and replacement activities is required to increase the overall condition of the bridges and culverts. Each asset's Estimated Useful Life should also be reviewed periodically to determine whether adjustments need to be made to better align with the observed length of service life for each asset type. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 63 7.11 Current Approach to Lifecycle Management The condition or performance of most assets will deteriorate over time. To ensure that municipal assets are performing as expected and meeting the needs of customers, it is important to establish a lifecycle management strategy to proactively manage asset deterioration. The following table outlines the Township's current lifecycle management strategy. Activity Type Description of Current Strategy Maintenance, Rehabilitation and Replacement All lifecycle activities are driven by the results of mandated structural inspections competed according to the Ontario Structure Inspection Manual (OSIM) Inspection The most recent inspection report was completed in 2023 by K. Smart Associates Limited Table 28 Lifecycle Management Strategy: Bridges & Culverts 7.12 Risk Analysis The risk matrix below is generated using available asset data, including condition, service life remaining, replacement costs, and crossing type. The risk ratings for assets without useful attribute data were calculated using only condition, service life remaining, and their replacement costs. The matrix stratifies assets based on their individual probability and consequence of failure, each scored from 1 to 5. Their product generates a risk index ranging from 1-25. Assets with the highest criticality and likelihood of failure receive a risk rating of 25; those with lowest probability of failure and lowest criticality carry a risk rating of 1. As new data and information is gathered, the Township may consider integrating relevant information that improves confidence in the criteria used to assess asset risk and criticality. These risk models have been built into the Township's Asset Management Database (Citywide Assets). See Risk & Criticality section for further details on approach used to determine asset risk ratings and classifications. Figure 26 Risk Matrix: Bridges & Culverts In addition to asset level risk, the Township may also face risk associated with not executing key lifecycle activities, including repairs, rehabilitation, and replacement of critical assets. These include: - missed opportunities for cost savings and increases in lifecycle costs; Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 64 - deferral of vital projects, or further lending and borrowing; - accelerated asset deterioration and premature failure, which may lead to public health and safety hazards, and disruption of services to the Township's residential and commercial base; - a decline in public satisfaction with the Township's service standards and the resulting reputational damage; - Bridges are inherently vital to the Township's transportation infrastructure, and their failures can disconnect communities, lead to public health and safety incidents, and can impede the efficient flow of residential and commercial traffic. An asset's criticality rating, determined by the nature and magnitude of the consequences of its potential failure should be used to prioritize projects, particularly lifecycle management strategies. Using risk in conjunction with levels of service, and the recommended workplans in OSIM inspections, can assist in optimizing limited funds. 7.13 Levels of Service The tables that follow summarize the Township's current levels of service with respect to prescribed KPIs under Ontario Regulation 588/17 as well as any additional performance measures that the Township has selected for this AMP. 7.13.1 Community Levels of Service Service Attribute Qualitative Description Current LOS (2023) Scope Description of the traffic that is supported by municipal bridges (e.g., heavy transport vehicles, motor vehicles, emergency vehicles, pedestrians, cyclists) Bridges and structural culverts are a key component of the municipal transportation network that supports various types of vehicles, including: heavy transport, motor vehicles, emergency vehicles and cyclists. Of all the Townships's structures, only structure 7 (Chenier Road) has a loading or dimensional restriction. Quality Description or images of the condition of bridges and culverts and how this would affect use of the bridges and culverts See Appendix F: Level of Service Maps & Photos Table 29 O. Reg. 588/17 Community Levels of Service: Bridges & Culverts Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 65 7.13.2 Technical Levels of Service Service Attribute Technical Metric Current LOS (2023) Scope % of bridges in the Township with loading or dimensional restrictions 15% Quality Average bridge condition index value for bridges in the Township 70 Average bridge condition index value for structural culverts in the Township 60 Proposed Levels of Service: Bridges & Culverts As detailed in section 5 Proposed LOS, the Municipality ran multiple scenarios to determine an achievable, affordable, and appropriate proposed LOS. Based on the analysis completed, the Municipality selected Scenario 213. The following graph summarizes the projected average condition for bridges and structural culverts between 2025 and 2034. Projected condition is based on the lifecycle management strategy14 and is confined by a set capital budget further detailed in Section 5 Proposed LOS. Figure 27: Bridges & Culverts Proposed LOS- Condition 13 Scenario 2: Capital budget begins at $320,000 in year one; increased by approximately $27,000 annually for 5 years (ending at $456,000) 14 This is noting that at the Township's discretion not all OSIM recommendations are included in the analysis. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 66 The following table details the proposed LOS for the condition of bridges and structural culvert assets annually until 2035. LOS Metric '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 Briges & Culverts: Average Condition (PLOS, %) 58 56 54 52 51 49 47 45 58 56 55 It is projected that the percentage of bridges and structural culverts with loading restrictions will not increase over the period of analysis (2025-2035). No additional capital costs are anticipated from this Proposed LOS. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 67 7.13.3 Recommendations Data Review/Validation - Continue to review and validate inventory data, assessed condition data and replacement costs for all bridges and structural culverts upon the completion of OSIM inspections every 2 years. - Incorporate all OSIM recommendations as lifecycle events (i.e. rehabilitations, replacements) so that capital requirements are accurately documented. Risk Management Strategies - Implement risk-based decision-making as part of asset management planning and budgeting processes. This should include the regular review of high-risk assets to determine appropriate risk mitigation strategies. - Review risk models (when applicable) on a regular basis and adjust according to an evolving understanding of the probability and consequences of asset failure. Lifecycle Management Strategies - This AMP only includes capital costs associated with the reconstruction of bridges and culverts. The Township should work towards identifying projected capital rehabilitation and renewal costs for bridges and culverts and integrating these costs into long-term planning. Levels of Service - Continue to measure current levels of service in accordance with the metrics identified in O. Reg. 588/17 and those metrics that the Township believe to provide meaningful and reliable inputs into asset management planning. - On a regular, annual basis measure the current LOS for each metric and chart this against the proposed LOS. Where there are significant differences between the two, work to understand what the differences are and why they have occurred. As necessary adjust lifecycle activities to support achievement of proposed LOS Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 68 Appendix C: Facilities The Township's facilities portfolio includes Equipment shed, fire hall, public works, sand/salty dome, and township office assets. The total current replacement of facilities is estimated at more than $1.2 million. 7.14 Inventory & Valuation Table 303 below summarizes the quantity and current replacement cost of all facility assets available in the Township's asset register. None of the facilities are componentized. The quantity listed represents the number of asset records currently available for each segment. Segment Quantity Unit of Measure Replacement Cost Primary RC Method Equipment Shed 1 Assets $65,400 User-Defined Fire Hall 1 Assets $230,000 User-Defined Public Works Garage 1 Assets $210,000 User-Defined Sand/Salt Dome 1 Assets $400,000 User-Defined Township Office 1 Assets $265,000 User-Defined TOTAL 5 $1,170,400 Table 30 Detailed Asset Inventory: Facilities Figure 28: Facilities Replacement Cost 7.15 Asset Condition & Age The table below identifies the current average condition, the average age, and the estimated useful life for each asset segment. The average condition (%) is a weighted value based on replacement cost. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 69 Table 31: Facilities Condition and Replacement Cost Summary Asset Segment Estimated Useful Life (Years) Average Age (Years) Average Condition Equipment Shed 50 3 Years 94% (Very Good) Fire Hall 50 29 Years 70% (Good) Public Works Garage 50 54 Years 70% (Good) Sand/Salt Dome 50 14 Years 72% (Good) Township Office 50 54 Years 70% (Good) Average 38 Years 10 Months 71% (Good) The graph below visually illustrates the average condition for each asset segment on a very good to very poor. Figure 29: Facility Condition Breakdown To ensure that the Township's buildings and facilities continues to provide an acceptable level of service, it should monitor the average condition of all assets. If the average condition declines, staff should re-evaluate their lifecycle management strategy to determine what combination of maintenance, rehabilitation and replacement activities is required to increase the overall condition of the buildings and facilities. Each asset's estimated useful life should also be reviewed periodically to determine whether adjustments need to be made to better align with the observed length of service life for each asset type. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 70 7.16 Current Approach to Lifecycle Management The condition or performance of most assets will deteriorate over time. To ensure that municipal assets are performing as expected and meeting the needs of customers, it is important to establish a lifecycle management strategy to proactively manage asset deterioration. Table 30 below outlines the Township's current lifecycle management strategy. Activity Type Description of Current Strategy Maintenance / Rehabilitation Facilities are not subject to routine, scheduled inspections. Currently, inspections are conducted on an ad-hoc basis The Township's Fire Hall receives scheduled mandated inspections Renewals and replacements are scheduled by utilizing staff knowledge and expertise. Table 32 Lifecycle Management Strategy: Facilities 7.17 Risk Analysis The risk matrix below is generated using available asset data, including service life remaining, replacement costs, and building department. The risk ratings for assets without useful attribute data were calculated using only age, service life remaining, and their replacement costs. The matrix classifies assets based on their individual probability and consequence of failure, each scored from 1 to 5. Their product generates a risk index ranging from 1-25. Assets with the highest criticality and likelihood of failure receive a risk rating of 25; those with lowest probability of failure and lowest criticality carry a risk rating of 1. As new data and information is gathered, the Township may consider integrating relevant information that improves confidence in the criteria used to assess asset risk and criticality. These risk models have been built into the Township's Asset Management Database (Citywide Assets). See Risk & Criticality section for further details on approach used to determine asset risk ratings and classifications. Figure 30 Risk Matrix: Facilities Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 71 7.18 Levels of Service 7.18.1 Community Levels of Service The tables that follow summarize the Township's current levels of service. There are no prescribed LOS metrics under Ontario Regulation 588/17 for non-core assets, therefore the metrics below represent performance measures that the Township has selected for this AMP. Service Attribute Qualitative Description Current LOS (2023) Regulatory Description of monthly and annual facilities inspection process Refer to section 4.3.3 Quality Description of the current condition of municipal facilities and the plans that are in place to maintain or improve the provided level of service Papineau-Cameron's facilities are in 'good condition'. With the recent addition to the fire hall, along with the new (2022) equipment shed, there are no immediate needs for the Township's facilities. Table 33 Community Levels of Service: Facilities 7.18.2 Technical Levels of Service Service Attribute Technical Metric Current LOS (2023) Quality % Of facilities that are in good or very good condition 100% % Of facilities that are in poor or very poor condition 0% Table 34 Technical Levels of Service: Facilities Proposed Levels of Service: Facilities As detailed in section 5 Proposed LOS, the Municipality ran multiple scenarios to determine an achievable, affordable, and appropriate proposed LOS. Based on the analysis completed, the Municipality selected Scenario 215. The following graph summarizes the projected average condition for facility assets between 2025 and 2034. Projected condition is based on the lifecycle management strategy and is confined by a set capital budget further detailed in Section 5 Proposed LOS. The table that follows reports on the percentage of facility assets in very good or good condition and the percentage of assets in poor or very poor condition as defined the LOS metric. 15 Scenario 2: Capital budget begins at $320,000 in year one; increased by $27,000 annually for 5 years (ending at $456,000) Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 72 Figure 31: Facilities Proposed LOS- Condition The following table details the proposed LOS for the condition of facilities assets over a ten-year period. Table 35: Proposed LOS- Facilities LOS Metric '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 '35 % Of facilities that are in good or very good condition 100 100 100 40 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 % of Facilities in fair condition 0 0 0 60 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 % Of facilities that are in poor or very poor condition 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Average Condition (%) 67 65 63 61 59 57 55 53 51 49 47 Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 73 7.18.3 Recommendations Asset Inventory - The Township's asset inventory contains a single record for all facilities. Facilities consist of several separate capital components that have unique estimated useful lives and require asset-specific lifecycle strategies. A building condition assessment (BCA) will create a component-based inventory of all facilities, which will allow for component-based lifecycle planning. Replacement Costs - Update replacement costs on a regular basis to ensure the accuracy of capital projections. Condition Assessment Strategies - The Township should implement regular condition assessments for all facilities to better inform short- and long-term capital requirements. Risk Management Strategies - Implement risk-based decision-making as part of asset management planning and budgeting processes. This should include the regular review of high-risk assets to determine appropriate risk mitigation strategies. - Review risk models (when applicable) on a regular basis and adjust according to an evolving understanding of the probability and consequences of asset failure. Levels of Service - On a regular, annual basis measure the current LOS for each metric and chart this against the proposed LOS. Where there are significant differences between the two, work to understand what the differences are and why they have occurred. As necessary adjust lifecycle activities to support achievement of proposed LOS Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 74 Appendix D: Vehicles The Township's vehicles total current replacement of is estimated at approximately $1.9 million. Papineau-Cameron owns and operates a variety of vehicles, including: - Tandem axle trucks for winter control activities - Fire rescue vehicles to provide emergency services - Pick-up trucks to support the maintenance of the transportation network 7.19 Inventory & Valuation Table 33 below summarizes the quantity and current replacement cost of all vehicles assets available in the Township's asset register. Segment Quantity Unit of Measure Replacement Cost Primary RC Method Protection Services 5 Assets $1,205,000 User-Defined Public Works 3 Assets $675,000 User-Defined TOTAL $1,880,000 Table 36 Detailed Asset Inventory: Vehicles Figure 32 Portfolio Valuation: Vehicles 7.20 Asset Condition & Age The table below identifies the current average condition and source of available condition data for each asset segment. The average condition (%) is a weighted value based on replacement cost. Table 37: Age and Condition Summary: Vehicles Asset Segment Estimated Useful Life (Years) Average Age (Years) Average Condition Protection Services 5-25 8 Years 80% Public Works 5-20 3 Years 8 Months 78% Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 75 Average 6 Years 4 Months 80% The graph below visually illustrates the average condition for each asset segment on a very good to very poor scale. Figure 33 Asset Condition: Vehicles by Segment To ensure that the Township's vehicles continue to provide an acceptable level of service, it should monitor the average condition of all assets. If the average condition declines, staff should re-evaluate their lifecycle management strategy to determine what combination of maintenance, rehabilitation and replacement activities is required to increase the overall condition of the vehicles. Each asset's estimated useful life should also be reviewed periodically to determine whether adjustments need to be made to better align with the observed length of service life for each asset type. 7.21 Current Approach to Lifecycle Management The condition or performance of most assets will deteriorate over time. To ensure that municipal assets are performing as expected and meeting the needs of customers, it is important to establish a lifecycle management strategy to proactively manage asset deterioration. The following table outlines the Township's current lifecycle management strategy. Activity Type Description of Current Strategy Maintenance / Rehabilitation Visual inspections completed and documented daily/weekly A weekly maintenance schedule is in place for all public works vehicles Commercial vehicles are subject to annual safety inspections on various components The inspection of fire protection vehicles are mandated Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 76 Replacement The Township relies on the expertise of its internal staff to forecast when its public works vehicles will need replacement Pertinent vehicle attributes such as age, kilometers and annual repair costs are taken into consideration when determining appropriate treatment options Table 38 Lifecycle Management Strategy: Vehicles 7.22 Risk Analysis The risk matrix below is generated using available asset data, including condition, service life remaining, replacement costs, and department or service area. The risk ratings for assets without useful attribute data were calculated using only condition, service life remaining, and their replacement costs. The matrix stratifies assets based on their individual probability and consequence of failure, each scored from 1 to 5. Their product generates a risk index ranging from 1-25. Assets with the highest criticality and likelihood of failure receive a risk rating of 25; those with lowest probability of failure and lowest criticality carry a risk rating of 1. As new data and information is gathered, the Township may consider integrating relevant information that improves confidence in the criteria used to assess asset risk and criticality. These risk models have been built into the Township's Asset Management Database (Citywide Assets). See Risk & Criticality section for further details on approach used to determine asset risk ratings and classifications. Figure 34 Risk Matrix: Vehicles 7.23 Levels of Service The tables that follow summarize the Township's current levels of service. There are no prescribed LOS metrics under Ontario Regulation 588/17 for non-core assets, therefore the metrics below represent performance measures that the Township has selected for this AMP. 7.23.1 Community Levels of Service Service Attribute Qualitative Description Current LOS (2023) Quality Description of the current condition of municipal vehicles and the plans Papineau-Cameron's vehicles are in very good condition. Vehicles receive daily Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 77 that are in place to maintain or improve the provided level of service inspection by internal staff. Major rehabilitative work is completed by an external mechanic on a scheduled basis Table 39 Community Levels of Service: Vehicles 7.23.2 Technical Levels of Service Service Attribute Technical Metric Current LOS (2023) Quality % of vehicles that are in good/very good condition 92% % of vehicles that are in fair condition 8% % of vehicles that are in poor/very poor condition 0% Table 40 Technical Levels of Service: Vehicles Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 78 Proposed Levels of Service: Vehicles As detailed in section 5 Proposed LOS, the Municipality ran multiple scenarios to determine an achievable, affordable, and appropriate proposed LOS. Based on the analysis completed, the Municipality selected Scenario 216. The following graph summarizes the projected average condition for vehicles assets between 2025 and 2035. Projected condition is based on the lifecycle management strategy and is confined by a set capital budget further detailed in Section 5 Proposed LOS. The table that follows reports on the percentage of facility assets in very good or good condition and the percentage of assets in poor or very poor condition as defined the LOS metric. Figure 35: Proposed LOS Vehicles- Condition 16 Scenario 2: Capital budget begins at $320,000 in year one; increased by $27,000 annually for 5 years (ending at $456,000) Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 79 The following table details the proposed LOS for the condition of vehicles assets over a ten-year period. Table 41: Proposed LOS Vehicles LOS Metric 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 % of vehicles that are in good/very good condition 50 50 63 50 13 13 50 50 38 13 % of vehicles that are in fair condition 25 38 38 25 38 25 38 38 25 38 % of vehicles that are in poor/very poor condition 25 12.5 0.0 25.0 50.0 62.5 12.5 12.5 37.5 50.0 Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 80 7.23.3 Recommendations Replacement Costs - Gather accurate replacement costs and update on a regular basis to ensure the accuracy of capital projections. Condition Assessment Strategies - Identify condition assessment strategies for high value and high-risk equipment. - Review assets that have surpassed their estimated useful life (when applicable) to determine if immediate replacement is required or whether these assets are expected to remain in-service. Adjust the service life and/or condition ratings for these assets accordingly. Risk Management Strategies - Implement risk-based decision-making as part of asset management planning and budgeting processes. This should include the regular review of high-risk assets to determine appropriate risk mitigation strategies. - Review risk models (when applicable) on a regular basis and adjust according to an evolving understanding of the probability and consequences of asset failure. Levels of Service - On a regular, annual basis measure the current LOS for each metric and chart this against the proposed LOS. Where there are significant differences between the two, work to understand what the differences are and why they have occurred. As necessary adjust lifecycle activities to support achievement of proposed LOS Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 81 Appendix E: Machinery & Equipment The Township's machinery and equipment portfolio includes Excavators Backhoes, Street sweepers, Culvert steamers, Trailers, Graders. The total current replacement of machinery and equipment is estimated at approximately $1.4 million. 7.24 Inventory & Valuation Table 37 below summarizes the quantity and current replacement cost of all machinery and equipment assets available in the Township's asset register. Segment Quantity Unit of Measure Replacement Cost Primary RC Method Protection Services 2 Assets $19,500 CPI Public Works 8 Assets $1,403,800 CPI TOTAL $1,423,300 Table 42 Detailed Asset Inventory: Machinery & Equipment Figure 36 Portfolio Valuation: Machinery & Equipment 7.25 Asset Condition & Age The table below identifies the current average condition and source of available condition data for each asset segment. The average condition (%) is a weighted value based on replacement cost. Table 43: Asset Condition & Age Summary: Machinery & Equipment Asset Segment Estimated Useful Life (Years) Average Age (Years) Average Condition Protection Services 10-15 12 Years 7 Months 68% Public Works 5-20 9 Years 5 Months 69% Average 10 Years 69 Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 82 The graph below visually illustrates the average condition for each asset segment on a very good to very poor Figure 37 Asset Condition: Machinery & Equipment by Segment 7.26 Current Approach to Lifecycle Management The condition or performance of most assets will deteriorate over time. To ensure that municipal assets are performing as expected and meeting the needs of customers, it is important to establish a lifecycle management strategy to proactively manage asset deterioration. The following table outlines the Township's current lifecycle management strategy. Activity Type Description of Current Strategy Maintenance/ Rehabilitation A weekly maintenance schedule is in place for all public works machinery & equipment The inspection of fire protection vehicles are mandated Replacement The Township relies on the expertise of its internal staff to forecast when its assets will need replacement Pertinent attributes such as age, manhours and annual repair costs are taken into consideration when determining appropriate treatment options Table 44 Lifecycle Management Strategy: Machinery & Equipment 7.27 Risk Analysis The risk matrix below is generated using available asset data, including condition, service life remaining, replacement costs, and service criticality. The risk ratings for assets without useful attribute data were calculated using only condition, service life remaining, and their replacement costs. The matrix stratifies assets based on their individual probability and consequence of failure, each scored from 1 to 5. Their product generates a risk index ranging from 1-25. Assets with the highest criticality and likelihood of failure receive a risk rating of 25; those with lowest Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 83 probability of failure and lowest criticality carry a risk rating of 1. As new data and information is gathered, the Township may consider integrating relevant information that improves confidence in the criteria used to assess asset risk and criticality. These risk models have been built into the Township's Asset Management Database (Citywide Assets). See Risk & Criticality section for further details on approach used to determine asset risk ratings and classifications. Figure 38 Risk Matrix: Machinery & Equipment 7.28 Levels of Service The tables that follow summarize the Township's current levels of service. There are no prescribed LOS metrics under Ontario Regulation 588/17 for non-core assets, therefore the metrics below represent performance measures that the Township has selected for this AMP. 7.28.1 Community Levels of Service Service Attribute Qualitative Description Current LOS (2023) Quality Description of the current condition of municipal vehicles and the plans that are in place to maintain or improve the provided level of service Papineau-Cameron's machinery & equipment assets are in good condition. Assets receive regular, scheduled inspection by internal staff. Major rehabilitative work is completed by an external mechanic on a scheduled basis Table 45 Community Levels of Service: Machinery & Equipment 7.28.2 Technical Levels of Service Service Attribute Technical Metric Current LOS (2023) Quality % of assets that are in good/very good condition 98% % of assets that are in fair condition 2% % of assets that are in poor/very poor condition 0% Table 46 Technical Levels of Service: Machinery & Equipment Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 84 Proposed Levels of Service: Machinery & Equipment As detailed in section 5 Proposed LOS, the Municipality ran multiple scenarios to determine an achievable, affordable, and appropriate proposed LOS. Based on the analysis completed, the Municipality selected Scenario 217. The following graph summarizes the projected average condition for machinery and equipment assets between 2025 and 2035. Projected condition is based on the lifecycle management strategy and is confined by a set capital budget further detailed in Section 5 Proposed LOS. The table that follows reports on the percentage of facility assets in very good or good condition and the percentage of assets in poor or very poor condition as defined the LOS metric. The following table details the proposed LOS for the condition of machinery and equipment assets over a ten-year period. Table 47: Proposed LOS - Machinery & Equipment LOS Metric '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 '30 '31 '32 '33 '34 % of assets that are in good/very good condition 10 10 20 10 0 10 20 30 30 40 % of assets that are in fair condition 70 50 50 30 20 10 0 0 0 20 % of assets that are in poor/very poor condition 20 40 30 60 80 80 80 70 70 40 17 Scenario 2: Capital budget begins at $320,000 in year one; increased by $27,000 annually for 5 years (ending at $456,000) Figure 39: Proposed LOS- Condition Machinery & Equipment Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 85 7.28.3 Recommendations Replacement Costs - All replacement costs used in this AMP were based on the inflation of historical costs. These costs should be evaluated to determine their accuracy and reliability. Replacement costs should be updated according to the best available information on the cost to replace the asset in today's value. Condition Assessment Strategies - Identify condition assessment strategies for high value and high-risk assets. - Review assets that have surpassed their estimated useful life to determine if immediate replacement is required or whether these assets are expected to remain in-service. Adjust the service life and/or condition ratings for these assets accordingly. Risk Management Strategies - Implement risk-based decision-making as part of asset management planning and budgeting processes. This should include the regular review of high-risk assets to determine appropriate risk mitigation strategies. - Review risk models (when applicable) on a regular basis and adjust according to an evolving understanding of the probability and consequences of asset failure. Levels of Service - On a regular, annual basis measure the current LOS for each metric and chart this against the proposed LOS. Where there are significant differences between the two, work to understand what the differences are and why they have occurred. As necessary adjust lifecycle activities to support achievement of proposed LOS. Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 86 Appendix F: Level of Service Maps & Photos Road Network Map: Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 87 Bridge & Culverts Structure Locations: Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 88 Images of Bridge in Good Condition Bridge 5 - Papineau Road Inspected: September 25th, 2023 Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 89 Images of Culvert in Good Condition Bridge 10 - Richards Road Inspected: September 25th, 2023 Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 90 Images of Culvert in Very Good Condition Bridge 13 - Archambeault Road Inspected: September 25th, 2023 Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 91 Appendix G: Risk Rating Criteria Probability of Failure Asset Category Risk Criteria Criteria Weighting Value/Range Probability of Failure Score Road Network (LCB / Gravel Roads) Bridges & Culverts Facilities Vehicles Machinery & Equipment Condition 50% 80-100 1 60-79 2 40-59 3 20-39 4 0-19 5 Service Life Remaining 50% <40 1 30-40 2 20-30 3 10-20 4 0-10 5 Table 48 Probability of Failure Criteria & Weights Township of Papineau-Cameron Asset Management Plan 2025 92 Consequence of Failure Asset Category Risk Classification Risk Criteria Value/Range Consequen ce of Failure Score Road Network (LCB / Gravel Roads) Economic (100%) Replacement Cost (75%) <$100,000 1 $100,000 - $250,000 2 $250,000 - $500,000 3 $500,000 - $1,000,000 4 $1,000,000+ 5 Road Class (25%) > 2 - Minor 1 > 3 - Moderate 2 > 4 - Major 3 Bridges & Culverts Facilities Vehicles Machinery & Equipment Economic (100%) Replacement Cost (100%) $0-$100,000 1 $100,000-$250,000 2 $250,000-$500,000 3 $500,000- $1,000,000 4 $1,000,000+ 5 Table 49 Consequence of Failure Criteria & Weights