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Growth Standing Committee Meeting
Agenda
Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 7:00 p.m.
S.H. Blake Memorial Auditorium
Pages
1.
Growth Standing Committee in the S.H. Blake Memorial Auditorium (Council
Chambers) at 7:00 p.m.
Chair: Councillor Trevor Giertuga
2.
Land Acknowledgement
A Member of Council will provide a land acknowledgement.
3.
Disclosures of Interest
4.
Confirmation of Agenda
WITH RESPECT to the Tuesday, July 21, 2026 Growth Standing Committee
meeting, we recommend that the agenda as printed, including any additional
information and new business, be confirmed.
5.
Presentations
5.1
Central Avenue - Update
Jillian Fazio, Senior Planner - Growth and Aaron Ward, Senior Project
Manager - Growth to provide a presentation.
5.2
Build Thunder Bay - Mid-Year Update
Joel DePeuter, Director - Development Services to provide a
presentation.
6.
Minutes of Previous Meetings
4 - 10
Minutes of Growth Standing Committee, held on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, for
information.
7.
Reports of Administration
7.1
Housing Affordability Action Plan
11 - 102
Report 144-2026 - Growth - Development Services presenting the draft
Housing Affordability Housing Action Plan to the Growth Standing
Committee for review and feedback, for information only.
Summer Stevenson, Project Manager - Growth and Paula Cunningham -
Housing Accelerator Coordinator to provide a presentation.
7.2
Smart Growth Action Plan - Mid-Year Implementation Update
103 - 114
Report 199-2026 - Growth providing a Mid-Year Implementation Update
on the Smart Growth Action Plan, for information only.
Matthew Pearson, Senior advisor - Growth to provide a presentation.
7.3
Property Related Matter - Transportation Museum of Thunder Bay
Confidential report 2026CLS.016 (Realty Services) to be distributed
separately to all Members of Council only.
7.4
Property Related Matter - Potential Surplus of Lands - Francis St W and
Metcalfe Ave
115 - 116
Memorandum dated June 18, 2026 from Deanna Walker, Manager -
Realty Services recommending that the Growth Standing Committee
resolve into Closed Session to receive and discuss confidential
information relative to the potential disposition of City-owned lands
municipally known as 1702, 1706 & 1708 Frances St. W. and Part of
Metcalfe Ave. (Untraveled) for the purpose of future residential
development.
Confidential report 2026CLS.015 (Realty Services) to be distributed
separately to all Members of Council only.
Resolution to Recess and Resolve Into Closed Session
THAT the Growth Standing Committee resolve into Closed Session in
order to receive and discuss information contained in confidential reports
2026CLS-015 and 2026CLS-016 (Growth - Development Services -
Realty Services) pursuant to the Municipal Act (Section 239(2)):
(c) a proposed or pending acquisition or disposition of land by the
municipality or local board;
(j) a trade secret or scientific, technical, commercial or financial
information that belongs to the municipality or local board and has
monetary value or potential monetary value;
(k) a position, plan, procedure, criteria or instruction to be applied to any
negotiations carried on or to be carried on by or on behalf of the
municipality or local board.
8.
New Business
Page 2 of 116
9.
Adjournment
Page 3 of 116
Growth Standing Committee Meeting Minutes
Tuesday, June 16, 2026, 7:00 p.m.
S.H. Blake Memorial Auditorium
Present:
Mayor Ken Boshcoff
Councillor Rajni Agarwal
Councillor Domenic Pasqualino
Councillor Trevor Giertuga
Officials:
Jeff Walters, Deputy City Clerk
John Collin, City Manager
Gillian Matson, Solicitor II
Keri Greaves, Commissioner - Corporate Services & City
Treasurer
Kerri Marshall, Commissioner - Growth
Kelly Robertson, Commissioner - Community Services
Cory Halvorsen, Acting Commissioner - Infrastructure &
Operations
Matthew Miedema, Director - Engineering
Michelle Warywoda, Director - Environment Division
Werner Schwar, Supervisor - Parks & Open Space Planning
David Briand, Project Engineer
Josh Daniels, Water & Wastewater Engineer
Flo-Ann Track, Council & Committee Clerk
1.
Growth Standing Committee
Chair: Councillor Trevor Giertuga
2.
Land Acknowledgement
Councillor Rajni Agarwal provided a land acknowledgement.
Page 4 of 116
Growth Standing Committee
Tuesday, June 16, 2026
2
3.
Disclosures of Interest
4.
Confirmation of Agenda
MOVED BY:
Councillor Dominic Pasqualino
SECONDED BY:
Councillor Rajni Agarwal
WITH RESPECT to the Tuesday, June 16, 2026 Growth Standing Committee meeting, we
recommend that the agenda as printed, including any additional information and new
business, be confirmed.
CARRIED
5.
Presentations
5.1
Trunk Watermain Inspection Program
Michelle Warywoda, Director - Environment Division and Josh Daniels, Water and
Wastewater Engineer to provide a presentation.
Director - Environment Division Michelle Warywoda and Water and Wastewater
Engineer Josh Daniels appeared before Committee, provided a PowerPoint
presentation, and responded to questions.
6.
Minutes of Previous Meetings
Minutes of the Growth Standing Committee, held on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, for
information.
7.
Reports of Administration
7.1
Property Related Matter - 120 and 122 Cumberland St. S.
Memorandum dated June 8, 2026 from Joel DePeuter, Director - Development
Services providing information relative to 120 & 122 Cumberland St. S.
Confidential report 2026CLS.013 (Realty Services) relative to the above noted was
distributed separately to all Members of Council, City Manager, City Solicitor,
Commissioner- Corporate Services & City Treasurer and Commissioner - Growth
only on Friday, June 12, 2026.
Page 5 of 116
Growth Standing Committee
Tuesday, June 16, 2026
3
Resolution to Recess and Resolve into Closed Session
MOVED BY:
Mayor Ken Boshcoff
SECONDED BY:
Councillor Dominic Pasqualino
THAT we resolve into Closed Session in order to receive information that is relative
to confidential reports 2026CLS.013 (Realty Services) pursuant to the Municipal Act
(Section 239 (2)):
(c) a proposed or pending acquisition or disposition of land by the municipality or
local board;
(f) advice that is subject to solicitor-client privilege, including communications
necessary for that purpose;
(k) a position, plan, procedure, criteria or instruction to be applied to any negotiations
carried on or to be carried on by or on behalf of the municipality or local board.
CARRIED
Growth Standing Committee - Closed Session in the McNaughton Room 7:18 p.m.
Present:
Mayor Ken Boshcoff
Councillor Rajni Agarwal
Councillor Domenic Pasqualino
Councillor Trevor Giertuga
Officials:
Jeff Walters, Deputy City Clerk
John Collin, City Manager
Gillian Matson, Solicitor II
Keri Greaves, Commissioner - Corporate Services & City
Treasurer
Kerri Marshall, Commissioner - Growth
Joel DePeuter, Director, Development Services
Deanna Walker, Manager, Realty Services
7.1.1 Growth Standing Committee - Closed Session
Chair: Councillor Trevor Giertuga
Page 6 of 116
Growth Standing Committee
Tuesday, June 16, 2026
4
7.1.2 Disclosures of Interest
7.1.3 Reports of Municipal Officers
Confidential report 2026CLS.013 (Realty Services) relative to the above
noted was distributed separately to all Members of Council, City Manager,
City Solicitor, Commissioner- Corporate Services & City Treasurer and
Commissioner - Growth only on Friday, June 12, 2026.
Manager - Realty Services Deanna Walker provided an overview and
responded to questions.
Solicitor II Gillian Matson responded to questions.
Commissioner - Corporate Services & City Treasurer Keri Greaves responded
to questions.
Director - Development Services Joel DePeuter responded to questions.
It was the consensus of Committee that Administration proceed as directed.
The Deputy City Clerk advised that the recommendation relative to Report
2026CLS.013 (Realty Services) would be presented to the Growth Standing
Committee in Open Session this evening.
At 7:28 p.m. the Closed Session concluded.
Growth Standing Committee - Open Session in the S.H. Blake Memorial Auditorium
(Council Chambers) at 7:29 p.m.
Present:
Mayor Ken Boshcoff
Councillor Rajni Agarwal
Councillor Domenic Pasqualino
Councillor Trevor Giertuga
Officials:
Jeff Walters, Deputy City Clerk
John Collin, City Manager
Gillian Matson, Solicitor II
Keri Greaves, Commissioner - Corporate Services & City
Treasurer
Kerri Marshall, Commissioner - Growth
Kelly Robertson, Commissioner - Community Services
Cory Halvorsen, Acting Commissioner - Infrastructure &
Page 7 of 116
Growth Standing Committee
Tuesday, June 16, 2026
5
Operations
Matthew Miedema, Director - Engineering
Michelle Warywoda, Director - Environment Division
Werner Schwar, Supervisor - Parks & Open Space Planning
David Briand, Project Engineer
Josh Daniels, Water & Wastewater Engineer
Flo-Ann Track, Council & Committee Clerk
7.1.4 Growth Standing Committee - Open Session
Chair: Councillor Trevor Giertuga
7.1.4.1
Property Related Matter - 120 and 122 Cumberland St. S.
Confidential Report 2026CLS.013(Realty Services) was presented
in Growth Standing Committee - Closed Session held earlier in the
evening.
MOVED BY:
Councillor Dominic Pasqualino
SECONDED BY:
Mayor Ken Boshcoff
WITH RESPECT to Report 2026CLS.013 (Growth - Development
Servicers - Realty Services), we request endorsement of the
Standing Committee to forward the following recommendations to
City Council:
WE RECOMMEND THAT the City's interest in the property, being
part of LT 10 W/S CUMBERLAND ST, 11 W/S CUMBERLAND ST,
9 W/S CUMBERLAND ST PL PRINCE ARTHUR'S LANDING
MCINTYRE; MANITOU ST PL 227 PORT ARTHUR CLOSED BY
TBR175654; LT 1-6 PL 227 PORT ARTHUR; PT LT 7 W/S
CUMBERLAND ST PL PRINCE ARTHUR'S LANDING MCINTYRE
PT 1, 55R5278; AS IN PTA142048 EXCEPT PT 3, 4, 55R5278; PT
LT 1 S/S WILSON ST OF PARKLT 1 S/S PEARL ST PL 95 1/2
PORT ARTHUR AS IN PTA135110, PTA134162, PTA134155,
PTA133117, PTA132280; PT 2 FT RESERVE PL 1720 MCINTYRE
AS IN PAA7985, PTA139971, PTA134153; THUNDER BAY (C231),
and municipally known as 120 and 122 Cumberland Street South
(the "Lands") be declared surplus to the City's requirements
pursuant to the City's policies;
Page 8 of 116
Growth Standing Committee
Tuesday, June 16, 2026
6
AND THAT the Lands be disposed of by direct sale to the District of
Thunder Bay Social Services Administration Board;
AND THAT notwithstanding Policy 09-04-65 - Corporate Land-
Related Financial Assistance, the Lands be transferred to the
District of Thunder Bay Social Services Administration Board for
nominal consideration recognizing the ongoing use of the Lands for
community housing;
AND THAT the Director - Development Services be authorized to
execute all required documentation in form satisfactory to the City
Solicitor and content satisfactory to the Director - Development
Services;
AND THAT any necessary by-laws be presented to City Council for
ratification.
CARRIED
7.2
Waterfront Trail Improvement Plan Update
Report 184-2026-Infrastructure & Operations-Engineering providing an update of the
Waterfront Trail Improvement Plan, for information, was distributed separately on
Friday, June 11, 2026.
Project Engineer David Briand appeared before Committee, provided a PowerPoint
presentation, and responded to questions.
7.3
Communication Tower - 1580 Arthur Street West
Report 189-2026-Growth-Development Services-Planning Services seeking
endorsement from the Growth Standing Committee relative to an application to
Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada (ISED), formerly known as
Industry Canada, to establish a 30.0 metre self- supported (monopole) antenna
structure at 1580 Arthur Street West.
Consultant - Fontur International Inc. Lucas Cuff appeared before Committee, on
behalf of the applicant, and provided a PowerPoint presentation.
Page 9 of 116
Growth Standing Committee
Tuesday, June 16, 2026
7
MOVED BY:
Mayor Ken Boshcoff
SECONDED BY:
Councillor Rajni Agarwal
WITH RESPECT to Report 189-2026-Growth-Development Services-Planning
Services, we request endorsement of the Standing Committee to forward the
following recommendations to City Council:
WE RECOMMEND THAT the issuance of a Letter of Concurrence for the proposed
antenna structure location be authorized, relative to:
1. 1580 Arthur Street West, legally described as Part of Lots 15 and 16,
Concession 3, NKR, together with part of the road allowance between Lots 15
and 16, including Parts 1 and 2 on Reference Plan 55R-6255.
AND THAT any necessary by-laws be presented to City Council for ratification.
CARRIED
8.
Petitions and Communications
8.1
Sleeping Giant Parkway Update
Memorandum dated June 4, 2026 from Matthew Miedema, Director - Engineering &
Facilities providing an update on the plans to extend the Sleeping Giant Parkway, for
information.
8.2
Potential Surplus Declaration and Sale of 60 Junot Avenue
Memorandum dated June 8, 2026 from Joel DePeuter, Director - Development
Services providing an update on the status of the potential surplus declaration and
sale of 60 Junot Avenue, for information.
9.
Adjournment
The meeting adjourned at 8:04 p.m.
Page 10 of 116
Standing Committee Report
REPORT NUMBER 144-2026-Growth-Development Services
DATE
PREPARED
June 23, 2026
FILE
STANDING
COMMITTEE
MEETING DATE
July 21, 2026
SUBJECT
Housing Affordability Action Plan
PURPOSE - Receive Feedback for Standing Committee - Growth
The purpose of this report is to present the draft Housing Affordability Action Plan to the
Standing Committee - Growth for review and feedback.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In recent years Thunder Bay has consistently ranked among Ontario's most affordable
cities due to lower relative housing costs, making housing affordability central to
Thunder Bay's value proposition to new residents. Rising rents and home purchase
prices have the potential to impact this value proposition for new residents and impact
quality of life for existing residents. Recognizing this, the Smart Growth Action Plan calls
for developing action plans to improve housing mix and affordability (R16).
The draft Housing Affordability Action Plan has 44 actions across six pillars to address
housing affordability by reducing barriers to development, increasing supports for non-
market affordable housing providers, and enabling policies to help preserve the supply
of affordable housing. This Action Plan expands on the work completed during the HAF
Program and is intended to succeed the HAF Action Plan.
The impact of successfully implementing the Housing Affordability Action Plan will be
closing Thunder Bay's housing deficit, achieving a target of 20% of new housing units
as affordable, reducing the number of households living in core housing need by 20%
(i.e.., households living in a dwelling that is inadequate, unsuitable, or unaffordable),
and maintaining Thunder Bay's value proposition of affordability.
Following feedback from the Standing Committee - Growth, the draft Housing
Affordability Action Plan will be finalized for presentation to City Council. The Affordable
Housing Concierge Service extension and Seed Funding Program will be brought
forward for deliberation during the budget process.
Page 11 of 116
Corporate Report 144-2026-Growth-Development Services
Page 2
KEY CONSIDERATIONS
Thunder Bay has a significant and growing housing affordability challenge that can
impact its value proposition for resident attraction.
Thunder Bay Housing Needs Assessment, 2024
In 2021, Thunder Bay had 454 homes per 1,000 usual census residents, representing a
deficit of 865 homes when compared to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD) average of 462 homes/1,000 residents. Going one step
further, based on household incomes, Thunder Bay had an affordable housing deficit of
4,055 homes (table 1).
Table 1. Total number of homes by number of bedrooms and maximum cost required to
satisfy the existing deficit (2020 $CAD; Housing Assessment Resource Tools, UBC).
Max. cost
1-bed
2-bed
3-bed
4-bed
5-bed
Total
Very Low Income
($390)
760
40
0
0
0
800
Low Income
($975)
2,070
440
150
45
0
2,705
Moderate Income
($1,560)
0
135
180
165
70
550
Median Income
($2,340)
0
0
0
0
0
0
High Income
(>$2,340)
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total
2,830
615
330
210
70
4,055
Lessons from the Housing Accelerator Program
In 2024, Thunder Bay was approved for up to $22.9 million in Housing Accelerator Fund
(HAF) funding to implement the Council Approved Action Plan and meet the Housing
Supply Growth Target of 1,755 homes by February 28, 2027. To date, the City has
completed 19 of the 24 milestones outlined in the Action Plan (79%). The final
milestones are due by December 31, 2026, marking the end of the HAF Program.
Since initiating the Program, Thunder Bay has achieved 55% of its overall 3-year target,
with a positive year-over-year unit trend. Thunder Bay has already achieved the missing
middle and other multi-unit sub-targets, illustrating the success of the HAF Action Plan
initiatives in incentivizing these unit types and increasing overall supply.
116 of the new units permitted since 2024 are considered affordable to low-income
households who can afford up to $975/month (12%). These units are developed by not-
for-profit organizations. 92 of these units were supported through the HAF funded
Affordable Rental Housing Funding Program and Affordable Housing Concierge
Page 12 of 116
Corporate Report 144-2026-Growth-Development Services
Page 3
Service. Recipients of this funding have committed to a minimum of 20 years of
affordability, with some committing to affordability in perpetuity.
Through the City's Community Improvement Grants, applicants who have been issued
building permits have indicated that up to 46 units will be affordable to moderate income
households who can afford up to $1,560/month (5%). However, there is no binding
commitment with the City to maintain these units as affordable for any duration of time.
In addition, these units are not subject to rent controls. Although these units may be
counted to meet the HAF targets, they are not relied upon to address the affordable
housing deficit.
Based on self reported information received during the grant application process, the
average monthly rent for new privately developed units is $1,733/1-bed, $2,090/2-bed,
and $2,665/3-bed. These rents are only affordable for median and high-income
households. CMHC suggests that, in the long-term, these new market-rate rental units
will improve affordability through rent spillovers and vacancy chains.
The data gathered during the HAF program period suggests that rents are continuing to
increase despite an increase in supply, with private market projects catering to median
and high-income households. Additional efforts are required to improve housing
affordability across the housing continuum and address the affordable housing deficit in
the short term. Evidence points to increasing capacity in the non-market (not-for-profit)
housing sector as one solution.
Major obstacles to advance non-market affordable housing projects include:
Limited capacity and expertise in the non-market housing sector,
Time required to advance projects through design phases,
Availability of affordable shovel ready land in core areas,
Complex, restrictive, and time limited grant funding sources, and
High operating expenses, including municipal taxes.
Action Plan
The draft Housing Affordability Action Plan (Attachment A) will improve housing
affordability by reducing barriers to development across the housing continuum,
earmarking shovel ready lands for non-market housing projects, increasing tools and
supports for non-market housing providers, and enabling policies to help preserve the
supply of existing affordable housing.
The Action Plan includes 44 actions across 6 pillars:
1. Data collection, reporting, and integration.
2. Getting projects off the ground faster.
3. Making municipally owned lands available for housing.
4. Reducing capital and operating costs for non-market affordable housing.
a. Property tax reductions or exemptions
b. Fee waivers
Page 13 of 116
Corporate Report 144-2026-Growth-Development Services
Page 4
c. Direct grant contributions
5. Preserving the supply of existing affordable housing.
6. Supportive policies and programs
Proposed Targets
The following targets are proposed:
1. Close the housing deficit by meeting the OECD standard of 462 housing units
per 1,000 usual residents.
2. 20% of all new residential units constructed each year are affordable, in line with
the Official Plan.
3. Reduce the number of households living in core housing need by 20% from the
baseline established in the 2026 Census.
Core Programs
Affordable Housing Concierge Service
The Affordable Housing Concierge Service pilot was launched in 2024 and is funded
until 2027. A temporary "Affordable Housing Navigator" position was created to deliver
the non-market Affordable Rental Housing Funding Program and support grant
recipients throughout their projects. The Navigator provides support by navigating the
development process, assisting with external grant applications, and liaising with
internal and external services to clear roadblocks.
This is an essential capacity building service that reduces barriers for non-market
housing providers and accelerates timelines. It is recommended that this service, and
staff position, be extended and expanded to serve all projects that meet a minimum
affordability threshold. In addition, the staff position would be the administrative
resource assigned to guide the implementation of this Action Plan.
Seed Funding Program
To access many funding programs, housing developments must be considered "shovel
ready." This includes Build Canada Homes. Shovel ready projects are required to have
design drawings, construction cost estimates, and operating pro formas. Getting a
project to the shovel ready stage requires significant investment without a formal
funding commitment, which can be challenging for non-market housing providers.
CMHC recently cancelled their seed funding stream, leaving a large gap.
A Seed Funding Program would provide grant funding for non-market housing providers
to complete the necessary pre-work required to access capital funding programs. The
Affordable Housing Concierge would develop and deliver this program.
Municipal Land Allocation & Discount
Page 14 of 116
Corporate Report 144-2026-Growth-Development Services
Page 5
The City's surplus lands initiative is a key component of the City's Housing Accelerator
Program and has been instrumental in increasing the number of units in the
development pipeline. The Plan recommends building on this work by continuing to
make lands available through the call for proposals process, with a specific call for
proposals issued for affordable housing development.
The City currently offers a small land discount for eligible not-for-profit organizations
purchasing municipal surplus lands (25%, up to $25,000). The discount was set in 2002
and has not been updated since. It is recommended that this policy be updated to
reflect current market conditions, and a discount of up to 100% be considered for non-
market affordable housing.
Property Tax Relief
Increasing annual operating costs make it difficult for non-market housing providers to
deliver affordable rents. To reduce operating costs, it is recommended that property tax
relief be considered for new non-market affordable housing projects. Some affordable
housing providers are already tax exempt, and a recent Court of Appeal decision may
result in increased exemptions in the future.
Next Steps
Following feedback from the Standing Committee - Growth, the draft Housing
Affordability Action Plan will be finalized for presentation to City Council. The Affordable
Housing Concierge Service extension and Seed Funding Program will be brought
forward for deliberation during the budget process (see: Financial Implications section).
CONSULTATION
In spring 2025, Administration engaged HTFC Planning & Design (HTFC) to conduct a
Housing Affordability Study. The study (Attachment B - Housing Affordability Strategy)
builds on the Housing Land Needs Study and Strategy completed by the firm in 2024
and explores policy, funding, partnership, and legislative options available to the City to
address housing affordability challenges, both in home ownership and rental markets.
This work was completed in three phases.
Phase 1: Background Study Report
Collected and reviewed relevant affordable housing data; prepared an updated
narrative to the Housing Land Needs Study and Strategy; reviewed best
practices in affordable housing in other Ontario municipalities; reviewed
provincial and municipal planning policies and studies; highlighted funding
opportunities for affordable housing creation.
Phase 2: Projections, Analysis and Needs Assessment Report
Page 15 of 116
Corporate Report 144-2026-Growth-Development Services
Page 6
Identified current and projected housing needs relative to supply in both
ownership and rental sector; projected affordable housing need, demand, supply,
and condition for the next 5-years.
Phase 3: Housing Affordability Strategy
Identified tools available to the municipality; engaged with stakeholders on tools
and priorities; summarized feedback; refined tools and recommended strategy
actions to support identified and projected housing needs.
The Mayor's Taskforce on Building More Homes Advisory Committee provided
guidance and feedback throughout the creation of the Plan. The Taskforce expressed
their support for the Housing Affordability Action Plan via resolution at their meeting on
May 20, 2026.
In October 2025, HTFC invited community stakeholders to participate in a workshop to
identify tools and priorities (noted in Phase 3). The Action Plan was distributed to
participants on June 2, 2026, with a request for comments by June 19, 2026. No
comments were received.
FINANCIAL IMPLICATION
Implementing the core actions within the Action Plan will require an annual investment
of approximately $350,000 to extend the Affordable Housing Concierge service and
implement a Seed Funding Grant Program. These programs will be brought forward to
the budget process for consideration.
Additional funding would be required to implement additional enhancements, however
these enhancements will not be brought forward for budget consideration in the near
term, unless otherwise directed by Council.
Administration will continue to monitor, and apply for, external funding opportunities that
could help deliver the actions in this Action Plan.
BACKGROUND
On December 2, 2025, City Council adopted the Smart Growth Action Plan (Report 282-
2025). The Smart Growth Action Plan includes action R16. Housing Mix and
Affordability: In collaboration with other levels of government, the District of Thunder
Bay Social Services Administration Board, developers, employers, and housing
partners, develop action plans to improve housing mix and affordability.
On March 20, 2025, the City of Thunder Bay and Canada Mortgage and Housing
Corporation entered into an amended Contribution Agreement to increase the total
Housing Accelerator Fund funding amount to $22.9 million and revise the Housing
Supply Growth Target and sub-targets. The new targets are as follows:
Page 16 of 116
Corporate Report 144-2026-Growth-Development Services
Page 7
By February 28, 2027:
o 1,755 permitted housing units (net).
429 missing middle housing units
328 other multi-unit housing units
20.61% of the Housing Supply Growth Target are affordable units.
At the March 11, 2024, Committee of the Whole Meeting, Report 64-2024 - Housing
Accelerator Initiatives was approved, thereby approving the administrative requirements
to support the Housing Accelerator Program.
On February 5, 2024, the City of Thunder Bay and Canada Mortgage and Housing
Corporation entered into a Contribution Agreement for up to $20.7 million in Housing
Accelerator Fund funding.
At the August 11, 2023, Committee of the Whole Meeting, additional information was
provided, and Council approved the City's application to the Housing Accelerator Fund.
At the July 24, 2023, Committee of the Whole Meeting, Report 203-2023 - Application
to the Federal Housing Accelerator Fund was presented and Council referred the report
back to Administration requesting additional funding.
REFERENCE MATERIAL ATTACHED
Attachment A - Draft Housing Affordability Action Plan
Attachment B - Housing Affordability Strategy
REPORT PREPARED BY
Summer Stevenson, Project Manager - Development Services
REPORT SIGNED AND VERIFIED BY
Joel DePeuter, Acting Commissioner - Growth Department
Date 06/25/2026
Page 17 of 116
The City of Thunder Bay
Housing Affordability Strategy
May 2026
Page 18 of 116
Submitted To
Submitted By
Devon McCloskey, MCIP, RPP
Manager of Planning Services
City of Tunder Bay
HTFC Planning & Design
500-115 Bannatyne Avenue East
Winnipeg, Manitoba R3B 0R3
Front cover graphic design obtained from the Noun Project. Artist: Sofscape.
Page 19 of 116
iii
1. Introduction
1
Plan Scope
1
Affordability and the Housing Continuum
3
What We Heard
6
2. Current Affordable Housing Needs
7
Population Trends
7
Age and Sex
8
Income
10
Economic and Labour Force Conditions
11
Components of Population Change
12
Household Profiles and Economic Characteristics
14
Overall Housing Situation
18
Rental Units
22
Homeownership
36
Analysis of Trends in Core Housing Need
49
3. Projected Future Housing Needs
54
Population Projections
54
Housing Need Projections
57
4. Tools for Developing and Protecting Affordable Housing
62
Tools to Reduce the Capital and Operating Costs of a Project
62
Tools to Get Projects off the Ground Faster
64
Tools to Provide Greater Certainty Around Approvals
66
Other Tools for Creation & Protection of Affordable Housing
67
Summary
69
Bibliography
70
Page 20 of 116
iv
Housing Affordability Strategy
City of Thunder Bay
List of Figures
Figure 1: The Housing Continuum (CMHC)
3
Figure 2: City of Thunder Bay Population 1951-2021 (Statistics Canada)
7
Figure 3: City of Thunder Bay Age Cohorts (Statistics Canada, 2021)
8
Figure 4: City of Thunder Bay household before-tax income groupings (2020)
10
Figure 5: Components of population change, Thunder Bay CMA - 2021-2024 (Statistics Canada)
12
Figure 6: Comparison of Private Households by Household Size (Statistics Canada, 2021)
14
Figure 7: Breakdown of household types in Thunder Bay (Statistics Canada)
16
Figure 8: City of Thunder Bay Private Households by Tenure (2021)
21
Figure 9: Private Household by Tenure in Comparison Cities (2021)
21
Figure 10: Thunder Bay Historical Rental Market - Units (CMHC 1990-2025)
22
Figure 11: Historical Rental Universe by Bedroom Type 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
23
Figure 12: 1-Bedroom Units in Thunder Bay 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
24
Figure 13: Bachelor Units in Thunder Bay (CMHC 2024)
25
Figure 14: 2 Bedroom Units in Thunder Bay 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
25
Figure 15: 3+ Bedroom Units in Thunder Bay 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
26
Figure 16: Thunder Bay (CY) Historical Average Rents by Bedroom Type 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
27
Figure 17: Average Rent/Month of Available Rental Units (Thunder Bay, Oct 2025)
28
Figure 18: Thunder Bay Historical Rental Market - % Change (CMHC 1990-2024)
29
Figure 19: Thunder Bay (CY) Historical Average Rent by Year of Construction - 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
30
Figure 20: Thunder Bay Historical Rental Market - Vacancy Rate (%) 1990 - 2025 (CMHC)1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
31
Figure 21: Thunder Bay Historical Vacancy Rates by Bedroom Type (CMHC 2024)
32
Figure 22: Historic Vacancy Rates by Rent Range, 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)(CMHC)
33
Figure 23: Renter Household Incomes and Affordable Rates 2024, Thunder Bay DSSAB (Provincial Policy Statement, Statistics Canada,
CMHC)
34
Figure 24: Homeownership rate by age of primary household maintainer (City of Thunder Bay, 2016-2021)
36
Figure 25: Homeownership rate by age of primary household maintainer, comparison cities (2021)
37
Figure 26: Comparison between cities of occupied private dwellings by condominium status (2021)
38
Figure 27: Single detached sales in Thunder Bay (Canadian Real Estate Association)
39
Figure 28: Single detached months of inventory in Thunder Bay (Canadian Real Estate Association)
40
Figure 29: Single detached median days on market in Thunder Bay for September (Canadian Real Estate Association)
41
Figure 30: Single detached median price for Thunder Bay (Canadian Real Estate Association)
42
Figure 31: Household incomes and affordable house prices, 2024, Thunder Bay DSSAB (Provincial Policy Statement, Statistics Canada,
CMHC)
43
Figure 33: Households that spent 30% or more of income on shelter costs, comparison cities (Statistics Canada, 2021)2021 (Statistics
Canada, 2021)
44
Figure 32: Households that spent 30% or more of income on shelter costs, City of Thunder Bay, 2016-2021 (Statistics Canada, 2021)
44
Figure 34: Comparison of occupied private dwellings by number of bedrooms by city (Statistics Canada, 2021)2021 (Statistics Canada,
2021)
45
Figure 35: Comparison of private households with percentage of housing that is not suitable by city (Statistics Canada, 2021)
46
Figure 36: Comparison of occupied private dwellings by period of construction by city (Statistics Canada, 2021)
47
Figure 37: Percent of Households in inadequate housing (requiring major repairs) by city (Statistics Canada, 2021)
48
Figure 38: Percent of households in core housing need, Thunder Bay (Statistics Canada, 2021)
49
Figure 39: City of Thunder Bay occupied private swellings by housing indicators for households spending 30% or more of income on shelter
costs, or not suitable, or major repairs needed (Statistics Canada, 2021)
50
Figure 40: Percentage of households in core housing need, by income category, Thunder Bay renter households vs. owner households 51
Figure 41: Percentage of households in core housing need by priority population in Thunder Bay (2021)
53
Figure 42: Projected Change in Demographic Makeup of City of Thunder Bay 2021 - 2031 (High Growth Scenario)
55
Figure 43: City of Thunder Bay Population Projections - Thunder Bay Housing Land Needs Study and Strategy, with Smart Growth Action
Plan Targets (2021-2046)
56
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v
Housing Affordability Strategy
City of Thunder Bay
List of Tables
Table 1: Grouped Cohort Percentage - Comparison Cities (2021)
9
Table 2: City of Thunder Bay labour force participation and top industries (Statistics Canada 2021)
11
Table 3: Types of Households - Census Families (Statistics Canada)
15
Table 4: Key household income characteristics for the City of Thunder Bay (Statistics Canada 2021)
17
Table 5: Distribution of private household types in Thunder Bay (Statistics Canada 2021)
18
Table 6: Distribution of types of occupied private dwellings in comparison cities (2021)
20
Table 7: Change in 1-Bed Units in Northern Ontario Cities (1990-2024)
24
Table 8: Renter Household Incomes and Affordable Rates 2024, Thunder Bay DSSAB (Provincial Policy Statement, Statistics Canada,
CMHC)
35
Table 9: Total number of households in core housing need in Thunder Bay by household size and income category (Housing Assessment
Resource Tools)
52
Table 10: Core housing need by number of bedrooms in Thunder Bay (Housing Assessment Resource Tools)
52
Table 11: Projected Demographic Changes 2021 - 2031 (High Growth Scenario)
54
Table 12: Future Housing Need by Growth Scenario
57
Table 13: Affordable Housing Need Projection for the City of Thunder Bay (Annual and 5-Year)
58
Table 14: Affordable housing targets for Thunder Bay (Allocated based on Built for Good Targets)
60
Table 15: New affordable units needed by number of bedrooms in Thunder Bay (Built for Good, 2025)
61
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Housing Affordability Strategy
City of Thunder Bay
1. Introduction
Project Background
Canada is currently facing a nationwide housing crisis,
including both a shortage of housing units and high costs.
Te City of Tunder Bay was once considered to have one
of the most afordable housing markets among mid-sized
cities in the country; however, in recent years, both rent and
housing prices in the city have increased exponentially.
To address these challenges, the City of Tunder Bay is
preparing a Housing Afordability Strategy and Action Plan.
Te Housing Afordability Strategy will examine projected
population trends, growth trends, and expected future
housing needs to update fndings from the City of Tunder
Bay's Housing Land Needs Study and Strategy (2024). Tis
report then recommends targets for housing development
that will meaningfully move toward the goal of improved
housing availability and afordability. It will also assess
challenges and opportunities, drawing on best practices from
other jurisdictions and consultations with stakeholders to
develop a roadmap for local municipal housing initiatives.
Te Action Plan is an internal document being prepared by
the City of Tunder Bay that follows the recommendations of
this plan and project engagement. It will provide short- and
long-term steps for the city to take that will help to improve
the supply of adequate and afordable rental and ownership
housing, as well as to take steps to address system challenges
and improve agency coordination.
Together, the Housing Afordability Strategy and Action
Plan will aim to change the trajectory of growing housing
costs and take steps to make afordable and suitable housing
available to all Tunder Bay residents in the years to come.
Plan Scope
Tis Plan focuses on housing within the City of Tunder Bay
and actions that can be taken to address housing afordability
by the City of Tunder Bay.
However, the Plan recognizes that factors beyond municipal
functions can afect housing afordability within municipal
boundaries. It also recognizes that the City of Tunder Bay
is only one of many organizations and levels of government
that play a role in housing within the city.
1
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Housing Affordability Strategy
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How does the City of Thunder Bay
defne "affordable"?
Te City of Tunder Bay generally classifes housing as
afordable if housing payments are less than 30% of a
household's income. Te City of Tunder Bay Ofcial Plan
provides more specifc criteria for housing afordability for
both rented and owned homes. In the case of rental housing,
an afordable dwelling unit is either: a unit for which the
rent does not exceed 30% of gross annual household income
for low- and moderate-income households1, or a unit
for which the rent is at or below the average market rent
of a unit in the regional market area (City of Tunder Bay
Ofcial Plan, p. 75).
In the case of home ownership, an afordable dwelling is
either: a home for which the purchase price results in annual
accommodation costs that do not exceed 30% of gross
annual household income for low- and moderate-income
households ; or a home for which the purchase price is at
least 10% below the average purchase price of a resale unit
in the regional market area. Note that the City of Tunder
Bay prefers to use the income-based afordability defnition
(which defnes afordability according to household income)
rather than the market-based afordability defnition (which
defnes afordability according to average rents and purchase
prices in the regional market area) because this is a more
human-centred approach to defning housing afordability.
Further distinctions are ofen made between deeply
afordable housing and moderately afordable housing.
Deeply Affordable Housing
Deeply afordable housing is housing that is afordable
to households in the lowest 30% of the area's income
distribution; in the District of Tunder Bay, this means
renter households with an annual income of $36,200 or
less (2024 Provincial Policy Statement - Housing Table 3:
Renter Household Incomes and Afordable Rates). Note that
an annual income, before taxes, for a full-time employee
making minimum wage ($17.60/hour, as of October 2025)
and working 40 hours a week would be $36,608.
Deeply afordable housing can include both rent-geared-to-
income (RGI) housing (where tenants typically pay 30% or
less of their income toward rent) and supportive housing
(for example, long-term housing with supports for people
with special needs). In Tunder Bay, deeply afordable
housing is primarily delivered by the District of Tunder
Bay Social Services Administration Board (TBSSAB) or
non-proft organizations, supported by funding from various
levels of government. Tis type of housing ensures that
people and families with a low income or other needs have
access to safe, stable, and afordable homes, guaranteeing
that even the most vulnerable members of the community
have a secure place to live.
Moderately Affordable Housing
Moderately afordable housing (sometimes referred to
as "below-market housing") is housing that is afordable
to households with moderate incomes, which include
households between the 31st and 60th percentiles of an
area's income distribution. Generally, these households make
too much money to qualify for government-subsidized or
deeply afordable housing but may not earn enough to fnd
regular market housing at a price afordable to their income.
In the District of Tunder Bay, people in the 31st and 60th
percentiles include:
-
Renter Households with an average income of
between $36,200 and $66,200 and
-
Owner Households with an average annual household
income of between $61,500 and $112,700 (2024
Provincial Policy Statement - Housing Table 1 and
Table 3).
Both private companies and non-proft housing
organizations are typically involved in the development
of moderately afordable housing; however, government
support or fnancial incentives are ofen required to enable
this housing to remain afordable. Many of the tools that
municipalities can use to encourage housing afordability
are related to moderately afordable housing. Tese tools are
discussed later in this report.
1
In Ontario, the defnition of "low- and moderate-income
households" varies but generally refers to households in the area with
incomes in the lowest 60% of the income distribution (i.e. the 60th
percentile) (see the Afordable Homes and Good Jobs Act, 2023, Bill 134).
2
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Housing Affordability Strategy
City of Thunder Bay
Affordability and the Housing
Continuum
Municipalities need a wide range of housing types and
tenures to encourage housing afordability across the city;
this range is ofen referred to as the housing continuum (as
shown in Figure 1, below).
Te lef-hand side of the spectrum starts with homelessness
and emergency shelters, which provide for people in crisis or
without permanent residence.
Deeply afordable housing options, including transitional
housing, supportive housing, and some community
housing options, are shown near the middle of the housing
continuum.
Moving right on the continuum are more moderately
afordable housing options, which may include other kinds
of community housing and afordable housing.
Private market housing, available for independent renters
and homeowners, is at the right-hand side of the continuum.
Te term "afordable housing" may technically apply to
any part of the housing continuum, as any of these options
may provide housing that meets the defnition of afordable
housing described above. Te City's Ofcial Plan notes,
"Afordable units may include all forms of housing; however,
it is recognized that the types of residential units considered
most likely to be afordable to households with lower-to-
moderate incomes will be smaller units, or multiple unit
residential buildings" (Ofcial Plan, p. 75).
Te following sections explain each of the points on the
housing continuum in more detail.
Homelessness
According to the CMHC defnition, homelessness "describes
the situation of an individual, family or community
without stable, safe, permanent, appropriate housing, or the
immediate prospect, means and ability of acquiring it. It
is ofen the result of what is known as systemic or societal
barriers, including a lack of afordable and appropriate
housing, the individual/household's fnancial, mental,
cognitive, behavioural or physical challenges, and/or
racism and discrimination" (Te National Housing Strategy
Glossary of Common Terms).
Homelessness may look diferent from person to person and
may even change from one night to the next. Te defnition
also includes "invisible homelessness" where a person is
staying temporarily with friends or family.
Emergency Housing
Te CMHC defnes emergency housing as "facilities
providing temporary, short-term accommodation for
homeless individuals and families. Tis may or may not
include other services such as food, clothing, or counselling.
Emergency housing is short-term accommodation for
people who are homeless or in crisis. Shelters are common
providers of these accommodations, and these facilities
may be open year-round or only in winter. Tere may also
be smaller religious or community-based organizations
that provide emergency housing." (Te National Housing
Strategy Glossary of Common Terms).
Figure 1: The Housing Continuum (CMHC)
The Housing Continuum
Homelessness
Emergency Shelter
Transitional
Supportive Housing
Community
Affordable Housing
Market Housing
Housing
Housing
3
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Housing Affordability Strategy
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Transitional Housing
Affordable Housing (Rentals and
Transitional housing is an important step for diferent
types of recovery from life crises and eventually fnding
permanent housing. Transitional housing is housing that is
"intended to ofer a supportive interim living environment
for its residents. It is considered an intermediate step
between emergency shelter and permanent supportive
or independent housing and has limits on how long an
individual or family can stay. Stays are typically between
three months and three years." (Built for Good, 2025, p. 20).
Supportive Housing
Supportive housing is defned as housing with integrated
support services, including medical, mental health,
addictions, and social supports, to help residents live
independently. Tis Study defnes supportive housing as a
permanent, congregate or non-congregate form of housing
typically provided primarily by government-funded and/
or non-proft housing providers, sometimes in partnership
with support service agencies. To ensure the benefts of
housing stability, supportive housing is ideally a long-term
living arrangement, or it ends if the resident is ready to live
more independently. Residents may go through transitional
housing frst or may be placed from some other facility.
By contrast, transitional housing may provide supports in
a similar manner, but the intention is for the resident to
stabilize and/or gain skills in order to move on to another
residence afer a set amount of time.
Community Housing
Te CMHC defnes community housing as "an umbrella
term that typically refers to either housing that is owned
and operated by non-proft housing societies and housing
co-operatives, or housing owned by provincial, territorial
or municipal governments (Te National Housing Strategy
Glossary of Common Terms)." Community housing includes
social housing, subsidized housing, and tenures such as
co-operative housing. Generally, social housing is owned by
the government, while other forms of community housing
are owned by non-profts, though there may be exceptions
through other funding agreements (Segel-Brown, 2025).
Home Ownership)
Afordable housing is rental and owned housing that meets
the defnition of afordability (for example, it is afordable if
a household spends less than 30% of its pre-tax income on
shelter). However, even some of the least expensive rental
and owned housing may still be unafordable for those with
very low incomes.
Market Housing (Rentals and Home
Ownership)
Market housing refers to housing where the cost is set at
whatever price the market allows; in the case of market
rental housing, the price is set by landlords, while home
and condominium ownership prices are determined by
whatever cost the housing goes for on the market. Tere are
no included discounts or subsidies for people with lower
incomes. Homeowners must cover the full costs of buying,
maintaining, and repairing their properties. However, there
are sometimes organizations, tax incentives, and grants that
can assist certain qualifying homebuyers, such as First Time
Homebuyer programs.
4
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Housing Affordability Strategy
City of Thunder Bay
How the Strategy was Developed
Tis work builds on years of previous work that the City of
Tunder Bay and its partners have been undertaking relating
to housing. Some of the key documents include:
-
City of Tunder Bay Housing Needs Assessment
(2025)
-
Tunder Bay Housing Land Needs Study & Strategy
(2024)
-
Under One Roof: A Housing and Homelessness Plan
(TBDSSAB 10-Year Plan)
-
TBDSSAB Market Rent Study (2022)
-
Municipal Tools for Afordable Housing - Ministry of
Municipal Afairs and Housing
-
City of Tunder Bay Growth Action Plan (2025)
-
Afordable Rental Housing Funding Program Policy
-
Housing Accelerator Annual Reports
In the spring of 2025, the City of Tunder Bay sought to
further understand current housing conditions, identify
key challenges, and gather input on potential tools and
approaches to improve housing afordability and availability.
As part of the Strategy, the project team conducted extensive
research into Tunder Bay's population trends and housing
costs. A signifcant part of the research involved engagement
with 13 housing stakeholders from Tunder Bay,
representing a range of housing-related sectors, including:
-
Private sector home builders and real estate industry
members - to discuss challenges and opportunities in
providing afordable market housing in Tunder Bay;
-
Te DSSAB, non-proft / charitable housing providers,
and representatives from social services organizations
- to discuss social housing and deeply afordable
housing;
-
Post-secondary education institutions - to discuss
afordable student housing; and
-
Indigenous organizations involved in housing
provision - to understand housing realities and needs
within Tunder Bay's Indigenous community.
In October of 2025, the team convened a workshop of 19
housing stakeholders at Tunder Bay City Hall to share
research fndings and possible tools that the City could use
to improve housing afordability. Stakeholders were invited
to discuss these options and identify which ones would be
most likely to improve afordability. Finally, this feedback
was shared with the Mayor's Taskforce on Building More
Homes, which assessed and prioritized the tools. Te next
sections will show the results of this work.
Image of Tunder Bay Stakeholder Workshop, October 2025
5
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Housing Affordability Strategy
City of Thunder Bay
What We Heard
Tis section summarizes the key points that were heard
during the stakeholder engagement for this project.
Housing Affordability Crisis
Feedback from stakeholders shows that housing afordability
and availability are signifcant and growing concerns in
Tunder Bay. Participants consistently reported that housing
costs, including both rents and home prices, have increased
substantially in recent years and are not keeping pace with
local incomes. Stakeholders noted the lack of mid-range
housing options, with available housing tending to be either
high-cost market units or subsidized housing. Lower-cost
units are ofen of poor quality or located in less desirable
areas. Demand for subsidized housing has increased, with
longer waitlists and supports that are not keeping pace with
current market conditions.
Supply Challenges
Stakeholders also identifed challenges related to housing
supply. While new construction is occurring, it is generally
focused on higher-priced units and is not meeting the
needs of many residents, particularly those with low and
moderate incomes. Constraints on development include
a shortage of skilled trades and construction capacity, as
well as high material costs. In addition, aging housing stock
and insufcient maintenance contribute to a reduction in
available and suitable units.
Gaps in Housing Types
Stakeholders named several gaps in the range of existing
housing options. Tere is a need for increased supportive
housing to serve a variety of populations, including seniors,
youth transitioning out of care, individuals with disabilities,
and those experiencing or at risk of homelessness. In
particular, stakeholders noted that Indigenous housing
needs are distinct and require targeted approaches, including
culturally appropriate housing and supports for larger or
multigenerational households. Stakeholders also mentioned
that students and individuals relocating from northern
communities face specifc housing challenges that also must
be addressed in unique ways.
Systemic Barriers
Stakeholders noted that there are systemic barriers to
the development of housing that is afordable. Tey said
funding for afordable housing initiatives is ofen limited,
inconsistent, and primarily focused on capital projects rather
than ongoing operations and maintenance. Development
processes and regulatory requirements can create delays
and increase costs. In addition, stigma and community
opposition to certain types of housing--particularly
afordable and supportive housing--can create challenges for
project implementation.
Opportunities & Solutions
Participants discussed a range of potential tools and
approaches to address these challenges. Stakeholders saw
fnancial tools such as seed funding, reserve funds, grants,
and tax or fee reductions as important mechanisms to
support afordable housing development. Tey highlighted
planning and regulatory tools, including streamlining
development processes and implementing zoning
measures such as upzoning and inclusionary zoning,
as other opportunities the City should keep pursuing.
Additional strategies discussed include leveraging public
lands, pursuing land banking and property acquisition,
strengthening partnerships with Indigenous and community
organizations, and increasing eforts to address stigma and
improve public awareness.
Key Messages
Overall, the engagement process confrmed that housing
afordability and availability are key issues in Tunder Bay.
While new housing development is occurring, it is not
aligned with the full needs of the community. Addressing
these challenges will require a coordinated approach that
considers funding, policy, land use, and partnerships.
6
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Housing Affordability Strategy
City of Thunder Bay
2. Current Affordable Housing Needs
Population Trends
In the 2021 Canadian census, the City of Tunder Bay's
population was listed as 108,843, making it the 51st most
populous municipality in the country and the 25th most
populous in Ontario (Statistics Canada, 2021). Te fgure
below shows population growth in the City of Tunder Bay
since the year 1951.
In that year, the population of Tunder Bay was 66,108--
approximately 60 percent of its current size. In the span of
ffeen years, the population rapidly expanded. By 1966, the
City had a population of 104,539, with an average 5-year
growth rate of 16.5% during that period.
However, growth in the City of Tunder Bay slowed in
the 1970s, dropping to an average 5-year growth rate of
only 1.7% between 1971 and 1991. Tunder Bay's census
population peaked in the early 1990s, with the highest
recorded total at 113,946.
In the two decades from 1996 to 2016, Tunder Bay's
population slowly declined, with an average 5-year change
in that period of -1.1%. In that time, the only growth took
place between 2001 and 2006, which saw a slight increase of
124 people in the city over those fve years (a growth rate of
0.1%).
Te most recent census showed the start of another fve-
year period of growth in Tunder Bay. Almost 1,000 people
were added to the population between 2016 and 2021. Tis
represents a growth rate of 0.9%.
It should be noted that there are several limitations to the
census data that may obscure the true state of the population
and housing situation in Tunder Bay. Te COVID-19
pandemic likely afected the count of international students,
who would normally have been in Tunder Bay for studies
but returned to their home countries during the pandemic-
era quarantines. Other uncounted residents would be those
from neighbouring Indigenous communities temporarily
living in Tunder Bay for medical or other services but
were likely counted in the census as residing in their home
community. Studies estimated that Tunder Bay's population
could be undercounted by 8,025 to 27,586 people, or 7% to
25% of the current census population. More information
on these limitations is provided in the Tunder Bay Housing
Land Needs Study & Strategy (2024).
Figure 2: City of Thunder Bay Population 1951-2021 (Statistics Canada)
66,108
104,539
113,946
108,843
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Population
Year
City of Thunder Bay
Population 1951 - 2021 (Statistics Canada
7
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Housing Affordability Strategy
City of Thunder Bay
Age and Sex
Statistics Canada defnes a generation as a "cohort of people
who have grown up in a specifc social, economic and
political context that can shape their view of the world. Te
year of birth determines which generation a person belongs
to" (Statistics Canada, "A generational portrait of Canada's
aging population from the 2021 Census", 2022). Tey defne
the generations in Canada in the 2021 census as follows:
-
Greatest Generation: people aged 94 or older (born
before 1928)
-
Interwar Generation: people aged 76 to 93 (born
between 1928 and 1945)
-
Baby Boomer Generation: people aged 56 to 75
(born between 1946 and 1965)
-
Generation X: people aged 41 to 55 (born between
1966 and 1980)
-
Generation Y (millennials): people aged 25 to 40
(born between 1981 and 1996)
-
Generation Z: people aged 9 to 24 (born between
1997 and 2012)
-
Generation Alpha: people aged 8 or younger (born
between 2013 and 2021)
An analysis of Tunder Bay's population by age and sex
reveals that there are two age groups with signifcant
population "bubbles" that stand out from the average
population, one younger and one older (see graph below).
Te graph shows a signifcant bubble in the age 20-24 (early
generation Z) and 25-29 cohorts (young millennials). Tis
bubble of 20-29-year-olds is not observed in cities like Sault
Ste. Marie or Kenora, although it is seen in other parts of
Ontario. Te reason for this increase is not immediately
clear, though it may be attributed to students moving to
Tunder Bay for post-secondary school.
Starting with the 30-34 age cohort (mid to late millennials),
population numbers decline before rebounding beginning
with the 45-49 age cohort and remaining relatively high
through the baby boomer generation (particularly in the 55-
64 age cohort) until experiencing a steep decline between 70-
74 and 75-79 (early baby boomers to interwar generation).
Figure 3: City of Thunder Bay Age Cohorts (Statistics Canada, 2021)
City of Thunder Bay
Population by Age Cohort (Statistics Canada, 2021)
85+
80 - 84
75 - 79
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 29
20 - 24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5 - 9
0 - 4
Mal e
Female
-1 0.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2 .0%
0.0%
2.0%
4. 0%
6. 0%
8. 0%
10.0%
8
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Housing Affordability Strategy
City of Thunder Bay
Te table below shows the ways Tunder Bay's age cohorts
difer from the age cohorts that are seen in the comparison
cities. In this table, and in other tables throughout this
document, green text or cell shading is used to represent the
highest value in a category while red is used to represent the
lowest value. Te following text summarizes the content in
the table:
-
Age 0 - 14: Tunder Bay has a slightly lower
percentage of 0- to 14-year-olds (14.2%) than in
Greater Sudbury, Kenora, and the provincial average
(16.2%).
-
Age 15 - 29: Tunder Bay has a sizeable group of
15- to 29-year-olds (19.1%), which is one to three
percentage points higher than any of the other
comparison cities in northern Ontario, but similar to
the provincial average.
-
Age 30 - 59: Te percentage of adults in the 30- to
44-year-old and 45- to 59-year-old cohorts are all
within two percent of the provincial average and
other comparison cities.
-
Age 60+: Tunder Bay's 60- to 74-year-old age
cohort and age 75 and older cohort are both several
percentage points higher than the provincial average,
as are other comparison cities in the north.
-
Average Age: Tese fndings are captured in the
average age of Tunder Bay, which is 43.7 years old.
Tis is almost two years older than the provincial
average of 41.8 years old, but in line with the
comparison cities.
Table 1: Grouped Cohort Percentage - Comparison Cities (2021)
9
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Housing Affordability Strategy
City of Thunder Bay
-
Income
Te fgure below shows household before-tax income groups
in 2020 for private households in the City of Tunder Bay.
Te median household afer-tax income for Tunder Bay
was $69,000 in 2020. Tis is an increase of $5,800 from the
previous census (Statistics Canada, 2021). Tose earning less
than $20,000 per year represented 4.5% of all households. For
households earning between $20,000 and $50,000, income
is almost evenly distributed across income intervals. At this
point, there is a signifcant increase in household earnings
that tapers of until the $100,000 threshold is reached. Te
$100,000 to $124,999 bracket contains more households than
any other, followed by $150,000 to $199,999.
Tunder Bay's household income levels have clear implications
for housing afordability. Middle income earners may struggle
to aford market housing in Tunder Bay, but also earn too
much to qualify for assistance. More housing needs to be
provided across the entirety of the housing continuum in
order to account for all individual and family needs.
Figure 4: City of Thunder Bay household before-tax income groupings (2020)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
U N D E R $ 5 , 0 0 0
$ 5 , 0 0 0 T O $ 9 , 9 9 9
$ 1 0 , 0 0 0 T O $ 1 4 , 9 9 9
$ 1 5 , 0 0 0 T O $ 1 9 , 9 9 9
$ 2 0 , 0 0 0 T O $ 2 4 , 9 9 9
$ 2 5 , 0 0 0 T O $ 2 9 , 9 9 9
$ 3 0 , 0 0 0 T O $ 3 4 , 9 9 9
$ 3 5 , 0 0 0 T O $ 3 9 , 9 9 9
$ 4 0 , 0 0 0 T O $ 4 4 , 9 9 9
$ 4 5 , 0 0 0 T O $ 4 9 , 9 9 9
$ 5 0 , 0 0 0 T O $ 5 9 , 9 9 9
$ 6 0 , 0 0 0 T O $ 6 9 , 9 9 9
$ 7 0 , 0 0 0 T O $ 7 9 , 9 9 9
$ 8 0 , 0 0 0 T O $ 8 9 , 9 9 9
$ 9 0 , 0 0 0 T O $ 9 9 , 9 9 9
$ 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 T O $ 1 2 4 , 9 9 9
$ 1 2 5 , 0 0 0 T O $ 1 4 9 , 9 9 9
$ 1 5 0 , 0 0 0 T O $ 1 9 9 , 9 9 9
$ 2 0 0 , 0 0 0 A N D O V E R
Household Before tax Income Groups In 2020 For Private
Households, Thunder Bay, 2021 (Statistics Canada)
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Economic and Labour Force
Conditions
Te table below highlights key information related to the
economy and labour force in the City of Tunder Bay. In
total, there are 53,355 workers in the Tunder Bay labour
force, as of the 2021 census. Te fve main industries
include (in order): health care and social assistance; retail
trade; educational services; public administration; and
accommodation and food services. Te majority of these
are permanent positions within the area (that is, few travel
outside Tunder Bay to work).
While Tunder Bay is diverse in the economic sector due
to its status as a regional hub, it also sees in-migration
from surrounding communities when there is an economic
downturn. In January of 2024, for example, the pulp mill and
main employer in Terrace Bay shuttered. Due to the layofs
and subsequent sufering of other local businesses, many
lost their livelihoods. As people could no longer aford their
homes, they moved to Tunder Bay, seeking social supports
not available in their small community. Tis puts additional
pressures on the city to accommodate the housing needs of
the region (Housing Needs Assessment, 2024, p. 19).
Table 2: City of Thunder Bay labour force participation and top industries (Statistics Canada 2021)
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Components of Population Change
Statistics Canada provides information on the components
of population change at the census metropolitan area
(CMA) level on an annual basis. Te fgure below shows
the components of population change in the Tunder
Bay CMA from 2023 to 2024 (note that there is no data
available for just the City of Tunder Bay; however, the City
of Tunder Bay makes up approximately 88 percent of the
total population of the Tunder Bay CMA). Tese include
births, deaths, immigration, emigration, and non-permanent
residency. Each of these components is described in more
detail below.
Births
Between July 1, 2023 and June 30, 2024, there were an
estimated 1,041 births in the Tunder Bay CMA (slightly
up from 996 in 2022/2023 but below the 1,119 births in
2021/2022). Tis ranks among the lowest number of births
among census metropolitan areas across the country (the
lowest was Fredericton, NB, with 973 births in the same
period). However, there is a distinct possibility that births in
Tunder Bay may rise sharply over the next census periods
as the observed population "bubble" of 20 to 29-year-olds in
Tunder Bay grows older into the prime childbearing age (in
Canada, the mean age of mother at time of delivery is now
31.4 years old (Statistics Canada, 2021).
Deaths
Between 2023 and 2024, there were an estimated 1,790
deaths in the Tunder Bay metropolitan area (up from
1,737 in 2022/2023 and 1,546 in 2021/2022). Tis means
that without immigration, Tunder Bay's population would
have decreased by 749 in that one-year period alone. Over
a fve-year period from 2016 to 2021, the number of deaths
exceeded the number of births in the Tunder Bay CMA by
1,619.
A key factor in the number of deaths in Tunder Bay is the
rate of premature mortality (death between 0 and 74 years
of age). Te rate of premature mortality in the Tunder Bay
District is 464 per 100,000 population--1.6 times higher
than the Ontario-wide rate of 287 per 100,000 people
(Statistics Canada, 2015-2017).
Figure 5: Components of population change, Thunder Bay CMA - 2021-2024 (Statistics Canada)
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Migrations
Migrations are a signifcant component of population change
in Tunder Bay.
An immigrant refers to a landed immigrant or permanent
resident who has been granted the right to live in Canada
permanently by immigration authorities. Immigrants who
have obtained Canadian citizenship by naturalization are
included in this group. 1,133 new immigrants came to the
Tunder Bay CMA between 2023 and 2024. Tis is up from
896 immigrants in the 2022/2023 period and 843 in the
2021/2022 period.
Emigrants are Canadian citizens or immigrants who have
lef Canada to establish a permanent residence in another
country. In the census, permanent emigration involves
severing residential ties with Canada and acquiring
permanent residency in another country. 178 people
emigrated (moved away) from the Tunder Bay CMA
during the 2023 to 2024 period. Tis is more than 172 in
2022/2023 and 65 emigrants in 2021/2022.
Returning emigrants are Canadian citizens or immigrants
having previously emigrated from Canada and subsequently
returned to Canada to re-establish a permanent residence.
69 came to the Tunder Bay metropolitan area in 2023/2024
(up from 66 and 35 in the two years prior).
Net temporary emigration refers to people who leave
Canada to live temporarily in another country and to
others who were temporarily outside Canada who have
returned. Te net result of those departures and returns is
the component known as "net temporary emigration". Te
net temporary emigration in the Tunder Bay CMA in 2023
- 2024 was null. Te last recorded net temporary emigration
numbers were 44 in 2021/2022.
Net interprovincial migration represents the diference
between in-migrants and out-migrants for a given province
or territory involving a change in the usual place of
residence. 205 more people lef the Tunder Bay CMA than
came in due to interprovincial migration in the 2023 to 2024
period. In 2022/2023, 276 more people lef Tunder Bay
than came in due to interprovincial migration. In 2021/2022,
584 more people lef Tunder Bay than came in for this
reason.
Net intraprovincial migration represents the diference
between in-migrants and out-migrants in a given region. In
the Tunder Bay CMA, net intraprovincial migration was
163 between 2023 and 2024. Te year before, it was even
higher, at 244. In 2021/2022, the Tunder Bay CMA net
intraprovincial migration was negative, at -137.
Te net non-permanent residents count in the fgure
represents the diference between non-permanent residents
(or temporary immigrant) coming to the area and leaving
that area. A non-permanent resident is a person lawfully in
Canada on a temporary basis under the authority of a valid
document (work permit, study permit, ministerial permit)
issued to that person along with members of their family
living with them. Tere was a net increase of 1,799 non-
permanent residents in the Tunder Bay RMA between 2023
and 2024. Tis is slightly lower than in 2022/2023, where
there were 2,083. In 2021/2022, there were 966 net non-
permanent residents. Te numbers for the previous years
were afected by the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2020/2021, there
were -529 net non-permanent residents. In 2019/2020 there
were 538 net non-permanent residents, while there were 835
in the 2018-2019 period.
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Household Profles and Economic Characteristics
Household Size
Te 2021 census identifes 50,995 private dwellings in the
City of Tunder Bay; 48,405 of these housing units are
counted as "private dwellings occupied by usual residents."2
Using the census count of 106,645 persons in private
households, this equates to an average size of 2.2 persons per
household and approximately 454 housing units per 1,000
residents.
Tunder Bay's household sizes are generally consistent with
its neighbouring comparison cities.
Compared to Sault Ste. Marie, Greater Sudbury, Kenora,
and the provincial average, Tunder Bay had the highest
percentage of 1-person households (see chart below).
For 2-person households, Tunder Bay was ahead of only
Ontario as a whole. However, all municipalities were within
2% of one another.
Tis trend continues for 3-person, 4-person, and 5+ person
households, as Tunder Bay remained consistent with its
peer cities.
When looking at the four cities averaged, they trend counter
to the provincial average. Ontario starts the dataset 6.6%
behind the cities for 1 person households, with that gap
shrinking successively until Ontario leads by 4.6% for 5+
person households. Tis reveals diferences in the housing
environments of Northern Ontario and Southern Ontario.
Tunder Bay and its comparison cities have more one-
person households than the provincial average, which is
skewed by the more populous south. Te relatively higher
share of 1-person households suggests there is a greater
opportunity to add additional units within single-detached
homes or as freestanding units in the backyard.
Figure 6: Comparison of Private Households by Household Size (Statistics Canada, 2021)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
1 pe rso n
2 pe rso ns
3 pe rso ns
4 pe rso ns
5 or mo re persons
Comparison of Private Households by Household Size (Statistics Canada, 2021)
Thunder Bay
Sault Ste. Marie
Sudbury
Kenora
Ontario
2 According to the census, "A private dwelling occupied by usual residents
refers to a private dwelling in which a person or a group of persons is
permanently residing. Also included are private dwellings whose usual
residents are temporarily absent on May 11, 2021. Unless otherwise
specifed, all data in housing products are for occupied private dwellings,
rather than for unoccupied private dwellings or dwellings occupied solely by
foreign residents and/or by temporarily present persons" (Statistics Canada,
2021).
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Household Type
Te fgure below depicts examples of diferent household types, based on the classifcations used in the Canadian census.
Statistics Canada defnes census family households as those that contain at least one census family. Non-census-family
households are either one person living alone or a group of two-or-more-persons who live together but do not constitute a
census family. Overall, 60.5% of all households in Tunder Bay (29,255 households) are census family households while 39.5%
(19,150 households) are non-census-family households.
Te information and the chart below shows the breakdown of each household census family type in the City of Tunder Bay.
Table 3: Types of Households - Census Families (Statistics Canada)
One-family households form the majority of households
in Tunder Bay (56% of all households). Such families are
defned as a married couple (with or without children), a
common-law couple (with or without children), or a one-
parent family.
In total, there are 6,010 one-parent families in the City
of Tunder Bay (20% of all families). 77% of one-parent
families are those in which the parent is a woman (4,620).
Te section on core housing need later in this report will
highlight that single mother-led households represented
the largest portion of priority populations in Tunder Bay
that are in core housing need.
Single-person households
make-up 35% of all households
in the City of Tunder Bay.
Te remaining 9% of household
types from greatest to least
are two-or-more person non-
family households (5%), one-
family with additional persons
(3%), and multi-generational
households (2%).
Multiple-family households
came last at less than 1%, or at
approximately 150 households in
real numbers.
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Figure 7: Breakdown of household types in Thunder Bay (Statistics Canada)
Household Type, City of Thunder Bay (Statistics Canada, 2021)
60%
56%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Thunder Bay
35%
5%
3%
2%
0.3%
One-family* households
Single-person households
Two-or-more-person non-family*
households
One-family* with additional
persons
Multigenerational
Multiple-family*
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Household and Income Profle
Te table below shows the key household income
characteristics for the City of Tunder Bay for the 2021
census year.
Te average household income in that year was $93,200,
while the median household income was $77,500. However,
there was a distinct diference in incomes between tenant
and owner households. Tenant household income was an
average of $56,550 (more than $35,000 less than the overall
average household income!), while owner household income
was an average of $113,100 (almost $20,000 more than the
overall average household income).
Te tenant income levels are far below the income needed
to aford the average home price. Tese are typically single
income, single occupancy, or single parent households that
cannot enter the housing market and require a wide range
of rental accommodations. Tese numbers also refect the
need for fnancial assistance to many renters in Tunder Bay.
22.9% of tenant households were in subsidized housing. Tis
is much higher than the provincial average of 14%.
Te section below will provide more information on how
income is related to housing afordability and suitability.
Table 4: Key household income characteristics for the City of Thunder Bay (Statistics Canada 2021)
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v
Overall Housing Situation
Housing Type
Tis section examines historic and current housing data
from the City of Tunder Bay that provides insight into
future housing needs in the city. Te analysis starts with
a look at the current housing supply, average household
sizes, and a breakdown of dwellings by type and tenure. Te
analysis also includes an assessment of housing condition
and the rate of retirement of housing stock, as well as an
analysis of demand for residential units over the last decade.
Total Housing Units and
Household Size
As described above, the 2021 census identifes 50,995
private dwellings in the City of Tunder Bay; 48,405 of these
housing units are counted as "private dwellings occupied by
usual residents."3 Using the census count of 106,645 persons
in private households, this equates to an average size of 2.2
persons per household and approximately 454 housing units
per 1,000 residents.
Distribution of Private Dwellings by Type
Te fgure below shows the distribution of occupied private
dwellings by type in the City of Tunder Bay for the census
year 2021. Te defnitions of each type follow Statistics
Canada's classifcation of residential structures.
Table 5: Distribution of private household types in Thunder Bay (Statistics Canada 2021)
66%
7%
5%
16%
5%
1%
0
5000
10 000
15000
20000
2500 0
300 00
35000
Single-detached
house
Semi-detached
& row house
Apartment or
flat in a duplex
Apartment in a
building that has
fewer than five
storeys
Apartment in a
building that has
five or more
storeys
Other
Distribution of Occupied Private Dwellings by Type,
City of Thunder Bay, 2021
3 According to the census, "A private dwelling occupied by usual residents
refers to a private dwelling in which a person or a group of persons is
permanently residing. Also included are private dwellings whose usual
residents are temporarily absent on May 11, 2021. Unless otherwise
specifed, all data in housing products are for occupied private dwellings,
rather than for unoccupied private dwellings or dwellings occupied solely by
foreign residents and/or by temporarily present persons" (Statistics Canada,
2021).
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Single-detached houses are single dwellings not connected
to another dwelling or structure (aside from its own garage,
for example). According to the Statistics Canada defnition,
a mobile home fxed permanently to a foundation is counted
as a single-detached house.
Semi-detached houses are one of two dwellings usually
attached side by side (or sometimes back-to-back) with no
dwellings above or below.
Row houses are three or more dwellings, usually joined
side by side (such as townhouses), but not having any other
dwellings either above or below.
Duplexes are buildings with two dwellings, located one
above the other.
Apartments are dwelling units attached to other dwelling
units, commercial units, or other non-residential space. Data
is broken out for apartments in buildings with both fewer or
more than fve storeys.
Other housing includes single-attached houses that do
not fall into any of the other categories, such as dwellings
attached to a store or a church, as well as movable dwellings
like mobile homes and houseboats.
Within the City of Tunder Bay, single-detached homes are
the most popular type of housing by a large margin (66%),
followed by apartments in buildings with fewer than fve
storeys (16%). Te remaining 18% consists of semi-detached
& row houses (7%), apartments in a building with fve or
more storeys (5%), apartments or fats in a duplex (5%) and
other dwellings (including other single-attached houses,
mobile homes, and other movable dwellings) (1%).
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Dwelling Type Distribution in
Comparison Cities
Te fgure below shows a comparison of the distribution of
types of occupied private dwellings in the comparison cities.
Tunder Bay has a distribution of housing types very similar
to Sault Ste. Marie. Kenora has a notably higher percentage
of single-detached houses (77%) than Tunder Bay, while
Greater Sudbury's is lower (60%).
Greater Sudbury has larger proportions of row houses (4%),
apartments in buildings with fve or more stories (7%), and
apartments or fats in a duplex than Tunder Bay (6%).
Greater Sudbury's housing type distribution can provide
instruction to the City of Tunder Bay as the latter aims to
grow its population over the coming years.
Table 6: Distribution of types of occupied private dwellings in comparison cities (2021)
Distribution of type of occupied private dwellings in comparison cities, 2021
90%
80%
Thunder Bay
Sault Ste.
Marie
Sudbury
Kenora
Single-detached house
65.5
65.0
60.6
77.1
Semi-detached house
4.3
5.6
4.6
2.6
Row house
3.0
2.9
4.1
1.4
Apartment or flat in a duplex
5.0
4.4
6.3
3.8
Apartment in a building that
has fewer than five storeys
16.2
15.3
16.8
11.0
Apartment in a building that
has five or more storeys
5.3
6.3
6.7
2.5
Other single-attached house
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
Movable dwelling
0.5
0.2
0.7
1.3
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
20
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Housing Tenure
Te fgure below shows a comparison of owners and renters
in private households in the City of Tunder Bay, as well as
how this compares to other cities in northern Ontario. In
Tunder Bay, there is approximately one renter-occupied
dwelling (32%) for every two owner-occupied dwellings
(68%).
Figure 8: City of Thunder Bay Private
Households by Tenure (2021)
City of Thunder Bay Private Households by
Tenure, 2021
Renter
32%
Owner
68%
Te ratio of owners to renters in Tunder Bay is consistent
with Sault Ste. Marie and the provincial average. Among the
comparison cities, Greater Sudbury has the highest share of
renters (36%) while Kenora has the highest share of owners
(74%).
Figure 9: Private Household by Tenure in
Comparison Cities (2021)
Private Households by Tenure in
Comparison Cities, 2021
Ontario
Kenora
Sudbury
Sault Ste. Marie
Thunder Bay
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Owner
Renter
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Rental Units
Change in Rental Market Over Time
Te fgure below shows the change in existing rental units
in Tunder Bay since 1990. Te longer story of housing
stock development illustrates a somewhat erratic trend
of decline and expansion until 2012, at which point the
number of units increases more quickly and steadily.
Despite a brief downturn from 2022-2023, the number of
units has continued to increase overall since the COVID-19
pandemic. As of October 2025, there were 6,231 rental units
within the City of Tunder Bay.
Figure 10: Thunder Bay Historical Rental Market - Units (CMHC 1990-2025)
5,811
6,231
4,800
5,000
5,200
5,400
5,600
5,800
6,000
6,200
6,400
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Number of Units
Year
City of Thunder Bay Historical Rental Market - Units
CMHC 1990-2025
22
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Te following fgure breaks down the historical rental
universe in Tunder Bay by bedroom type. Te most
common apartment type is the two-bedroom unit, while
bachelors and 3+ bedroom units are much less common.
One-bedroom units are the second most common type of
housing.
Figure 11: Historical Rental Universe by Bedroom Type 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Number of Units
Year
Historical Rental Universe by Bedroom Type - 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
Bachelor
1 Bedroom
2 Bedroom
3 Bedroom +
23
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Te fgure below shows an isolated look at one-bedroom
units over time. Tis graph reveals a notable decrease in
one-bedroom units between the years 1990 and 2025, from
2,302 to 2,068. Tis means there are actually 234 fewer one-
bedroom units in Tunder Bay now than there were in the
year 1990--a decrease of more than 10% over 35 years. Tere
has, however, been a slight rebound in the number of one-
bedroom units since 2019.
Similar changes, however, took place in other northwestern
Ontario cities over this time period. North Bay, Kenora,
Sault Ste. Marie, and Timmins all saw decreases in the
number of one-bedroom units between 1990 and 2024. Only
Greater Sudbury recorded a growth in one-bedroom units,
with an increase in 13.8% in units over that period. Tis
speaks to larger trends of condominium conversions and
demolitions that contribute to the loss of one-bedroom units
over time.
Figure 12: 1-Bedroom Units in Thunder Bay 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
2,302
2,068
1,800
1,850
1,900
1,950
2,000
2,050
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
2,300
2,350
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Number of units
Year
1-Bedroom Units in Thunder Bay - 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
Table 7: Change in 1-Bed Units in Northern Ontario Cities (1990-2024)
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Housing Affordability Strategy
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1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Te numbers for bachelor units are also concerning.
Fortunately, there has been strong growth in the number of
Te fgure below shows the number of bachelor units is
two-bedroom units over the last few decades. In 1990, there
essentially the same today as it was in 1990 (325 in 1990
were 2,731 of these units. As of 2025, there were 3,320. Tis
compared to 327 in 2025).
is an increase of 589 units.
Figure 13: Bachelor Units in Thunder Bay (CMHC 2024)
325
327
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021
2022
2023
2024
Number of Units
Year
Bachelor Units in Thunder Bay - 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
Bach elor
Figure 14: 2 Bedroom Units in Thunder Bay 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
2,731
3,320
2,500
2,600
2,7 00
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Number of Units
Year
2 Bedroom Units in Thunder Bay - 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
2 Bedr oom
25
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1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Te chart below shows the number of 3+ bedroom units
over time. In 1990, there were 438 of these units in Tunder
Bay. Now, there are 495. Tis is an increase of 57 units. Note
that the data shows a loss of 135 3+ bedroom units between
2024 and 2025, which is likely due to conversion of these to
2-bedroom units.
Figure 15: 3+ Bedroom Units in Thunder Bay 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
438
630
495
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021
2022
2023
2024
Number of Units
Year
3+ Bedroom Units in Thunder Bay - 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
3 Bedr oom +
26
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Rent costs
Te fgure below depicts historical average rents by bedroom
type from 1990 to 2025. Tese rents increased slightly
from 1990 to approximately 2007 (and in some cases even
decreased slightly). Afer 2007, the rents began to notably
increase. Around 2021-2022, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom
apartment rent costs increased steeply, although bachelor
units leveled of somewhat. Tree-bedroom unit rents have
increased the most dramatically in recent years, costing
almost $600 more per month in 2025 than they did in 2021.
However, rents for most unit types (aside from bachelor
units) have shown some stabilization between 2024 and
2025, which may indicate the effect of housing policy
changes or increased supply helping to address demand.
Between 2024 and 2025:
-
Average rent on bachelor units rent increased $136
per month, from $840 to $976.
-
Average rent on one-bedroom units increased $27
per month, from $1,146 in 2024 to $1,173 in 2025.
Tis shows a slowdown from previous year, where
one-bedroom rents increased by $92 per month from
$1,054 in 2023, which was an increase of 8.7%.
-
Average rent on two-bedroom units increased $48
per month, from $1,445 in 2024 to $1,493 in 2025.
Tis also shows a stabilization of rapid increases
experienced in previous years. From 2023-2024,
average rent on two-bedroom units increased $124,
or 9.3%.
-
Average rent on three-bedroom or larger units
actually decreased by $28 per month, from $1,822 to
$1,794. Rent for these units had experienced rapid
growth seen in the previous year (2023-2024), where
the average 3-bedroom apartment increased $311 per
month: a 20.6% change.
However, Tunder Bay housing stakeholders expressed that
the CMHC numbers do not accurately describe the true cost
of rental units that are available on the market. To compare,
the study examined 46 units available to rent in the City
of Tunder Bay posted online on sites including Facebook
Marketplace, Rentals.ca and Rentpanda.ca in October 2025
and compared these prices to the CMHC fgures provided
above.
Figure 16: Thunder Bay (CY) Historical Average Rents by Bedroom Type 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Average Rent ($)
Year
Thunder Bay (CY) Historical Average Rents by Bedroom Type - 1990-2025
(CMHC)
Bachelor
1 Bedroom
2 Bedroom
3 Bedroom +
27
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Te data from October 2025 is provided in the fgure below
Approximately 24% of the units available for rent online
and shows:
had all utilities included. Renters in other units would be
-
Te average cost to rent an available room only
(that is, one room in a house, sharing washroom
and kitchen facilities) is $789/month. Tis is slightly
diferent than the CMHC data available for bachelor
units, so no comparison is shown.
-
Te average cost to rent an available 1-bedroom unit
is $1,609/month. Tis is $436/month more than the
CMHC 1-bedroom average rent.
-
Te average cost to rent an available 2-bedroom unit
is $1,960/month. Tat is $467/month more than the
CMHC 2-bedroom average rent.
-
Te average cost to rent an available 3-bedroom unit
is $2,149/month. Tat is $355/month more than the
CMHC 3-bedroom average rent.
responsible to pay for some or all of the other utility costs for
heat, water, and electricity (as well as cable and internet), all
of which could further increase the monthly shelter costs.
Note that this study will reference both the CMHC
numbers--which refect statistically signifcant data that
includes the rent of what tenants are paying--and the
observed average rent of available rental units--which refect
the true costs of what people have to pay if they are looking
for an available rental unit in the Tunder Bay market.
Figure 17: Average Rent/Month of Available Rental Units (Thunder Bay, Oct 2025)
$1,173
$1,493
$1,794
$789
$1,609
$1,960
$2,149
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Room Only
1 Bedroom
2 Bedroom
3 Bedroom
Monthly Rent
Unit Size
Average Rent/Month of Available Rental Units vs. CMHC Average Rent, City of
Thunder Bay, October 2025
CMHC Average Rent
Rental Listings
28
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1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Te fgure below shows the percent change in CMHC-
measured average rental costs year by year (some data is
missing). Judging from early 2000s data to 2025 data, rent
costs initially showed moderate fuctuation while staying
under a 4% change. In 2012, the increase was steeper and
higher towards an increase over 5%. From there, rent
fuctuations have been more extreme. High points are seen
for the years 2012 (just under 6%), 2018 (over 6%), and 2024
(over 8%), interspersed with minimal increases in 2016 and
2020 of around 2%. Te rate of change from 2024-2025,
6.8%, is slightly below changes in the previous three years,
peaking at 8.4% between 2023 and 2024.
Figure 18 shows the average rent according to age and
year of construction. Generally, pricing and annual price
increases remained steady among housing stock, with small
incremental rent increases until the year 2010. Te data
begins to refect new builds at that time, and the initial rents
for these new units began at nearly $250 higher than units
built prior to the year 2000. Tat same year, similar older
units had a smaller price diference of $155 or less among
them.
Afer 2010, rents for new builds have been both higher
and much more unstable than the rents in older buildings,
culminating in a major spike starting in the 2021-2022
period. By 2025, the average rent of a post-2000 build was
$2,151, an increase of $909 over the $1,242 average rent on
a unit built from 1980-1999. In turn, the diference between
the 80s-90s- era unit and those built before 1960 was just
$24 per month (interestingly, units from 1960 - 1979 had an
average cost of $1,347 per month).
Figure 18: Thunder Bay Historical Rental Market - % Change (CMHC 1990-2024)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021
2022
2023
2024
Percent Change
Year
Thunder Bay Historical Rental Market - % Change
CMHC 1990-2025
29
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1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Average Rent ($)
Figure 19: Thunder Bay (CY) Historical Average Rent by Year of Construction - 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Thunder Bay (CY) Historical Average Rent by Year of Construction - 1990-2025
(CMHC)
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021
2022
2023
2024
Year
Before 1960
1960 - 1979
1980 - 1999
2000 or Later
30
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1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Vacancy Rates
Te graph below shows the historical trend in vacancy rates
in Tunder Bay.
A healthy rental market is usually defned as having a 3%
vacancy rate -- meaning about three out of every 100
units are empty and ready to rent. A vacancy rate of 3%
is considered balanced, providing no clear advantage to
either landlords or tenants. Rates above 3% point to an
oversupplied market, which could lead to conditions more
favorable for renters, while rates below this threshold
indicate a tight rental market, when rents typically rise.
As shown below, Tunder Bay's vacancy rate has approached
the 3% benchmark approximately eight times in the past
34 years. Since 2018-2019, the vacancy rate had shown a
variable downward trend, until it reached a low below 2%
in 2022. As of 2024, the vacancy rate has rebounded to
approximately 3%.
Figure 20 further breaks down vacancy rates by type of
bedroom unit. As of 2025, one-bedroom and 2-bedroom
units have a vacancy rate around 4%, slightly above the
3% vacancy target. Te 2025 vacancy rate for 3+ bedroom
units is below this target, sitting at 2.6%. Recall that 135
3-bedroom or larger units were taken of the market between
2024 and 2025, which is likely having an efect on vacancy
rates in that category.
Figure 20: Thunder Bay Historical Rental Market - Vacancy Rate (%) 1990 - 2025 (CMHC)1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021
2022
2023
2024
Vacancy Rate Percentage
Year
Thunder Bay Historical Rental Market - Vacancy Rate (%) 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)
V acancy Rate (%)
V acancy Target 3%
31
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1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021
2022
2023
2024
Vacancy Rate Percentage
Year
Thunder Bay (CY) Historical Vacancy Rates by Bedroom Type 1990 to 2025 Row
/ Apartment (CMHC)
1 Bedroom
2 Bedroom
3 Bedroom +
Vaca ncy Target 3%
Figure 21: Thunder Bay Historical Vacancy Rates by Bedroom Type (CMHC 2024)
32
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1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Te fgure below shows vacancy rates for diferent rent
ranges between 1990 and 2025. Te category of rents under
$750 has a vacancy rate that has dwindled from 5.6% in
2020 to not available in 2025, likely because there are few
to no vacant units available in that price range. Te vacancy
rate for the $750-$999 rent range has also dropped from
6% vacancy in 2018 to a level where data is not statistically
reliable (once again, likely due to very low numbers).
Vacancy rates for units in the $1,000 to $1,249 range are
around the target mark, at 3.1%. Interestingly, there has been
a drop in the last year of vacant units in the $1,250 - $1,499
range; in 2024, there was a 3.7% vacancy rate on those
units, while in 2025 the vacancy rate in that rent category
is only 0.6 percent. Tese numbers may be catching trends
observed in other markets across Ontario the year before.
Te United Way Built for Good report states, for example,
"As of October 2024, the vacancy rate for units that rent
for less than $1,500 a month fell near or below 1% across
the province. A vacancy rate of 3% is generally accepted
as a 'healthy' vacancy rate, indicating a balance between
the supply of and need for rental housing. Vacancy rates in
Ontario have hovered consistently below 3% since 2010, with
exceptions in only a handful of years. Tis emphasizes the
lack of afordable rental options in Ontario" (Built for Good,
p. 24).
In 2025, the vacancy rate for units in the $1,500+ range
in the Tunder Bay market was 3.9%, up from 3.3% the
previous year. Tis may indicate there is likely to be a buyers'
market for these units in the near future, which may help to
limit the prices of these top-end units.
Figure 22: Historic Vacancy Rates by Rent Range, 1990 to 2025 (CMHC)(CMHC)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1991
1992
1993
1994
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2021
2022
2023
2024
Vacancy Rate (%)
Year
Historical Vacancy Rates by Rent Range - 1990-2025 (CMHC)
Less Than $750
$750 - $999
$1,000 - $1,249
$1,250 - $1,499
$1,500 +
33
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Renter Household Incomes and
Affordable Rental Rates
Te CMHC states that housing is considered "afordable"
if the total shelter costs are less than 30% of a household's
before-tax income. According to Statistics Canada, the cost
of shelter for a renter household includes "the rent and costs
of electricity, heat, water and other municipal services." Tis
defnition of afordable housing refers to both rental and
ownership costs.
Te fgures below show renter household incomes and
afordable rates for the Tunder Bay DSSAB area in 2024
(this is the most recently published provincial data at the
time of this report. Note that the data is for the entire
Tunder Bay district served by the DSSAB, which goes
beyond the Tunder Bay city limits). In 2024, renters earning
the 10th percentile of household incomes could only aford
to pay $490 a month, based on defnitions of afordable
housing that are less than 30% of a household's income. At
the 50th percentile, this increases to $1,390 a month, and at
the 90th percentile it reaches $3,170 a month.
When comparing these values to the CMHC average rent
costs (October 2025 data is shown in the chart, which
is similar to the data in 2024), the picture of housing
afordability appears grim (note that incomes may have also
increased during the one-year period). To aford a one-
bedroom apartment (which in 2025 cost an average of
$1,173 a month in the City of Tunder Bay), a household
must have an income in the 50th percentile. Tis means
that half of all households in the Tunder Bay district
earn less than the income needed to rent a one-bedroom
apartment in the City of Tunder Bay at an afordable rate.
To upsize to a 2-bedroom apartment at an average of $1,493
a month, a household must earn in the 60th percentile,
meaning 60 percent of renters in the area are immediately
priced out of housing afordability for this apartment type.
In 2025, the average 3-bedroom apartment cost $1,822 per
month in the City of Tunder Bay; only renters in the 70th
percentile would be able to rent these units at an afordable
rate. Te numbers show that many Tunder Bay renters are
either underhoused or fnancially overextending themselves
to achieve shelter.
Figure 23: Renter Household Incomes and Affordable Rates 2024, Thunder Bay DSSAB (Provincial Policy
Statement, Statistics Canada, CMHC)
10th
20th
30th
40th
50th
60th
70th
80th
90th
Affordable Shelter Costs
$490
$710
$900
$1,130
$1,390
$1,660
$2,000
$2,47 0
$3,170
Annual Income
$19,500
$28,400
$36,200
$45,100
$55,400 $66,200 $79,800 $98,600 $126,800
$490
$710
$900
$1,130
$1,390
$1,660
$2,000
$2,470
$3,170
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
Affordable Rent (per month)
Income Percentile
Renter Household Incomes and Affordable Rates 2024, TBDSSAB
(Provincial Policy Statement - Housing Tables, Stats Canada, CMHC)
2025
CMHC
Avg.
rent by
room
count
3 bdrm
2 bdrm
1 bdrm
Bach.
34
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When comparing these values to the average rent costs
for units available online in October 2025, the picture of
housing afordability is even more dire.
To aford an available one-bedroom apartment (which in
2025 cost an average of $1,609 a month in Tunder Bay), a
household must have an income in the 60th percentile. Tis
means that 60% of all renter households in the Tunder
Bay district earn less than the income needed to rent an
available one-bedroom apartment at an afordable rate. For
an available 2-bedroom apartment at an average of $1,960
a month, a household must earn in the 70th percentile
(earning $79,800 per year), meaning 70 percent of renters
in the Tunder Bay district are immediately priced out of
housing afordability for available units of this apartment
type. In October 2025, the average available 3-bedroom
apartment cost $2,149 per month in the Tunder Bay
district; only renters in the 80th percentile (earning $98,600
per year) would be able to rent these units at an afordable
rate. Te numbers show that many Tunder Bay renters are
either underhoused or fnancially overextending themselves
to achieve shelter.
Table 8: Renter Household Incomes and Affordable Rates 2024, Thunder Bay DSSAB (Provincial Policy
Statement, Statistics Canada, CMHC)
35
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Homeownership
Ownership by Age
Te fgure below shows the homeownership rate by age
of primary household maintainer for the City of Tunder
Bay and how this has changed between the years 2016
and 2021. For both the 2016 census and 2021 census, the
rate of homeownership generally increases with the age of
the primary household maintainer. In 2021, just over 54
percent of millennials (25-40 age range) owned a home; this
jumps to 70 percent for Generation X (41-55) and peaks
with 75 percent homeownership rate in the 55-75 cohort
(baby boomers) before falling slightly to 73 percent for
those over 75. However, from 2016 to 2021, the share of
homeownership fell across all age groups. Tis suggests the
amount of rental housing stock is rising faster than owner-
occupied housing stock.
Figure 24 shows how the homeownership rate by age in the
City of Tunder Bay compares to the comparison cities and
the Province as a whole.
Te chart shows that the homeownership rate in the 15 to 24
age category (Generation Z) is lower in Tunder Bay than in
all the comparison cities except Greater Sudbury. Tunder
Bay's homeownership rate for Generation Z, at 19 percent,
is slightly lower than the provincial average of 20 percent
and signifcantly lower than the City of Kenora's rate, at 30
percent.
In the 25 to 39 age category (millennials), Tunder Bay and
Greater Sudbury once again have the lowest homeownership
rates among the other comparison cities, at 54 percent,
slightly above the provincial average of 52 percent. Te
ownership rate in this age group in the City of Kenora is 69
percent.
Te homeownership rate in the 40 to 54 age cohort
(Generation X) in the City of Tunder Bay and in Greater
Sudbury is 71 percent. Once again, this is lower than the
other comparison cities and close to the provincial average
(also 71 percent). In Kenora, the homeownership rate for
this age cohort is 78 percent.
In the City of Tunder Bay, the homeownership rate for the
55 to 74 age cohort (baby boomers) is 76 percent. Tis is
slightly above the rates in Greater Sudbury (71 percent) and
Sault Ste. Marie (74 percent), but below Kenora (78 percent)
and the provincial average rate (77 percent).
Among the interwar generation (75+ age category),
the homeownership rate in Tunder Bay of 74 percent
is higher than every other comparison city. Te lowest
homeownership rates in this category are in Kenora, at 62
percent, and Greater Sudbury, at 65 percent.
Overall, the data shows that older generations (baby
boomers and the interwar generation) in the City of
Tunder Bay are staying in their homes longer than they are
in other cities. Once the people in these age cohorts can fnd
other housing suitable to their needs later in life, this should
bring a large number of homes to the market that may help
to increase the homeownership rates in the under-40 age
groups. However, this requires that an adequate supply and
variety of housing for seniors is available in the city, such as
rentals and supported living options.
Percentage (%)
Figure 24: Homeownership rate by age of primary household maintainer (City of Thunder Bay, 2016-2021)
Homeownership rate by age of primary household maintainer,
City of Thunder Bay, 2016 to 2021
90
76.6 75.6
73.2
73.9 73.7
80
70.6
70
56.9
2016
54.3
60
50
40
30
19.5 18.7
2021
20
10
0
15 to 24
25 to 39
40 to 54
55 to 74
75 and over
Age Groups
36
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Figure 25: Homeownership rate by age of primary household maintainer, comparison cities (2021)
Homeownership rate by age of primary household maintainer, comparison
Percentage (%)
cities, 2021
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
40 to 54
Age Groups
Sudbury
55 to 74
Kenora
Ontario
75 and over
15 to 24
25 to 39
Thunder Bay
Sault Ste. Marie
37
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Condominium Status
Te fgure below provides a comparison between cities of
occupied private dwellings by condominium status for the
year 2021. While the overall percentage of private dwellings
with condominium status in Tunder Bay (4.4%) is relatively
low compared to private dwellings without condominium
status (95.6%), it is noteworthy that Tunder Bay has the
highest ratio of condominium status to non-condominium
status dwellings among comparison cities in northern
Ontario. Greater Sudbury has the lowest ratio, with only
1.9% of private dwellings having condominium status.
Figure 26: Comparison between cities of occupied private dwellings by condominium status (2021)
Comparison between cities of occupied private dwellings by condominium
status, 2021
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Thunder Bay
Sault Ste. Marie
Sudbury
Kenora
38
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Thunder Bay Housing Market
Te Tunder Bay housing market saw 786 housing units sold
in 2025's third quarter--15.9% higher than the number of
sales in the third quarter of 2024.
659 of these property sales (84%) were for single detached
homes. Tis is an increase of 17.3% from the single detached
home sales the year before (see the chart below). According
to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), this is the
highest quarterly level of sales ever in Tunder Bay (CREA,
2025).
According to CREA data, the tightest market for single
detached homes was in the $350,000 to $450,000 range--
where there was the lowest supply in relation to demand and
the shortest time spent on the market.
Te REMAX Fall 2025 Market Update for Tunder Bay
states, "Although there are new listings coming to market,
there still is not enough to accommodate the amount of
demand. New Canadians, investment buyers, families and
couples continue to drive sales in Tunder Bay, which is
expected to remain the same throughout the year. Retirees
and second time homebuyers are also becoming more active
in the region. In this competitive market, sellers are ofen
able to achieve multiple ofers, with properly marketed
homes frequently selling above the listing price . . . Rarely
is an ofer with a house sale condition accepted" (REMAX,
2025).
Figure 27: Single detached sales in Thunder Bay (Canadian Real Estate Association)
Single Detached Sales
Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association
39
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Months of Inventory
Months of inventory (MOI) is a statistic useful for
determining the state of the housing market, indicating how
long it would take the current inventory of housing stock to
sell at current sales volumes. Te more months of inventory
available, the longer one would expect a home to sit on the
market before selling.
A market is generally considered to be balanced when the
MOI is between four and six months, with anything lower
indicating a seller's market and anything higher indicating
a buyer's market (MoneySense, 2016). In a seller's market,
low inventory drives prices up, and in a buyer's market, high
inventory brings prices down. A balanced market falls in the
middle, with prices holding steady.
In the third quarter of 2025, the MOI for single detached
homes in Tunder Bay was 2.1 months, indicating a strong
seller's market. Te chart below shows this is down from 2.7
months in the same period in 2024.
In this seller's market, homes spent a median of 19 days on
the market in the third quarter of 2025. Tis is down from a
median of 21 days the year before.
When comparing September numbers only, the current
median days on market (approximately 14) is considerably
below the 10-year average (of 20), as shown on the chart
below.
Figure 28: Single detached months of inventory in Thunder Bay (Canadian Real Estate Association)
Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association
40
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Figure 29: Single detached median days on market in Thunder Bay for September (Canadian Real Estate Association)
Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association
41
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Owner Household Incomes and Affordable House Prices
Te City of Tunder Bay was once known as one of the
most afordable housing markets in the country. In 1991, the
average price for a dwelling in Tunder Bay was $118,859.
Tat same year, the median income for a family in Tunder
Bay was $50,011 (Statistics Canada, 1991).
However, house prices in the city started to rise sharply
in 2008. By 2021, the average price for a house was
$300,000--a 152 percent increase over that 30-year period.
In comparison, the median total household income in 2021
was $77,500--only a 54 percent increase over those 30 years
(Statistics Canada, 2021). Tis disparity between increase in
incomes and the cost of housing is a main factor driving the
housing crisis in Canada.
House prices in Tunder Bay continued to rise through the
COVID-19 pandemic, reaching a peak in early 2022 before
dropping slightly near the end of the year and then rising
again through 2023.
Te image below shows the single detached median price in
Tunder Bay from 2004 to present. As of the third quarter
of 2025, the median price for a single detached home in
Tunder Bay was $380,000. Looking at September alone,
the median sale price for single detached homes sold in the
month was $392,500. Tis is a new record price, up 21.7%
from September 2024. According to the CREA, "Te more
comprehensive year-to-date median price was $400,000, a
gain of 14.3% from the frst nine months of 2024"--this is
due to a spike in August 2025 when the median sale price
was $450,000 (CREA, 2025).
Figure 30: Single detached median price for Thunder Bay (Canadian Real Estate Association)
Source: The Canadian Real Estate Association
42
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Te fgure below demonstrates the fnancial barrier to home
ownership in Tunder Bay DSSAB area.
In 2024, the average resale price of a detached home was
more than $325,000 in the Tunder Bay district (note
that 2024 numbers are used in this instance because 2025
numbers are not available for incomes). Te afordable
rate for home ownership--at 10% below the average resale
price--was $321,100. Tis is higher than the afordable
house price for those in the 50th income percentile of
homeowners (with household incomes of $93,900), who can
aford a house of $293,400 at 30% of their income.
Tis means that more than half of all households in the
Tunder Bay district would not have been able to purchase
an average-priced home at a cost afordable to their income
(i.e. without spending more than 30% of their income on
housing).
Figure 31: Household incomes and affordable house prices, 2024, Thunder Bay DSSAB (Provincial Policy
Statement, Statistics Canada, CMHC)
43
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Households Spending 30% or More
Income on Shelter Costs
Te fgure below shows the percentage of Tunder Bay
households (both homeowners and renters) that spent 30%
or more of their income on shelter costs, showing data from
the 2016 census and 2021 census periods.
From 2016 to 2021, the share of all households (renter and
owner combined) spending 30% or more of their income on
shelter (the cut-off for housing to be considered affordable)
fell from 20.2% to 16.0%. However, with the recent rise in
housing costs observed after 2021, these numbers are likely
to increase during the next census period.
Te fgure below shows households that spent more than
30% of their income on housing by city in 2021. In general,
percentages of homeowners that spend more than 30% of
their income on housing in Tunder Bay are in-line with
Sault Ste. Marie, Greater Sudbury, and Kenora. Interestingly,
the percentage of renters in Tunder Bay who spend more
than 30% of their income on housing are the lowest of the
comparison cities. However, this should not minimize the
afordable housing needs of renters in Tunder Bay. In
comparison to the 9.1% of owner households that spent 30%
or more on shelter costs, 30.4% of tenant households spend
more than 30% of their income on housing in the City of
Tunder Bay.
Figure 32: Households that spent 30% or more of income on shelter costs, City of Thunder Bay, 2016-2021
(Statistics Canada, 2021)
Figure 33: Households that spent 30% or more of income on shelter costs, comparison cities (Statistics Canada, 2021)2021
(Statistics Canada, 2021)
44
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Housing Affordability Strategy
City of Thunder Bay
Number of Bedrooms
Te fgure below shows the number of occupied private
dwellings by number of bedrooms, by comparison city.
Overall, the distribution of bedroom counts in occupied
private dwellings was relatively consistent across Tunder
Bay and the comparison cities.
1-bedroom dwellings had the smallest share and was very
similar across the four cities, all falling within 1% of each
other.
Te share of 2-bedroom dwellings had higher variability
with a 3% spread.
Among all cities, 3-bedroom dwellings achieved plurality,
with Sault Ste. Marie emerging as an outlier among its peers.
Te share of 4+ bedroom dwellings was similar to
2-bedroom dwellings but contained the highest in-group
variability at 4.7%. In this set, Tunder Bay was most
comparable to Greater Sudbury.
Figure 34: Comparison of occupied private dwellings by number of bedrooms by city (Statistics Canada,
2021)2021 (Statistics Canada, 2021)
Comparison of Occupied Private Dwellings by Number of Bedrooms By City
(Statistics Canada, 2021)
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1 bedroom
2 bedrooms
3 bedrooms
4 or more bedrooms
Thunder Bay
Sault Ste. Marie
Sudbury
Kenora
45
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City of Thunder Bay
Not
Suitable
Housing Suitability
According to Statistics Canada defnitions, "suitable
housing" has enough bedrooms for the size and composition
of private households according to the National Occupancy
Standard.
A large majority of private households in Tunder Bay
(96.7%) and the comparison cities live in housing suited to
the size and composition of the occupants.
In Tunder Bay, approximately 3.3% of private households
were not living in suitable housing according to the National
Occupancy Standard.
In the comparison cities, Sault Ste. Marie and Greater
Sudbury had the lowest share of housing that is not suitable,
with 2.8% each. Kenora had the highest share of housing that
is not suitable, at 3.7%.
Figure 35: Comparison of private households with percentage of housing that is not suitable by city
(Statistics Canada, 2021)
Comparison of Private Households With Percentage of Housing that is Not
Suitable by City (Statistics Canada, 2021)
3.7%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Thunder Bay
Sault Ste. Marie
Sudbury
Kenora
3.3%
2.8%
2.8%
46
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Housing Affordability Strategy
City of Thunder Bay
Housing Stock Age
As evidenced by the occupancy numbers, housing stock
in Tunder Bay and the comparison cities skews toward
a pre-1981 construction date. In the City of Tunder Bay,
39% of occupied private dwellings were built prior to 1961,
making it a city with some of the oldest housing stock in
Canada. In comparison to other cities with old housing
stock, Moose Jaw had 37.5% of its housing stock built prior
to 1961, Hamilton had 32.8%, Winnipeg had 31.3%, Toronto
had 29.3%. Edmonton only had 12.7% of its housing built
prior to 1961. Across Canadian municipalities, an average of
only 20% of dwellings were built prior to 1961. In fact, when
looking at census metropolitan areas (CMAs) across the
country, Tunder Bay's CMA has the highest proportion of
dwellings built prior to 1961 (at 36.5%).
In Tunder Bay, 34% of occupied dwellings were built
between 1961 and 1980. Construction of the remaining 27%
spans a 40-year period from 1981-2021, with percentages
declining each decade from 10% in 1981-1990 to just 4% in
2011-2021. Te slow growth of housing aligns with the slow
growth of Tunder Bay's population, which experienced
little growth in the 1970s before stagnating in the 1980s and
experiencing periods of decline in the 1986, 1996, 2001,
2011, and 2016 census years.
Te comparison cities follow similar trends, as seen in
Figure 19. Kenora, which also has a high percentage of
occupied dwellings built in 1960 or before, experiences
the same downward trajectory as Tunder Bay over time
with comparable numbers. In Sault Ste. Marie and Greater
Sudbury, the period of 1961-1980 saw the most housing
construction. Beginning in 1981 however, all four cities saw
a steady decline decade-over-decade.
Figure 36: Comparison of occupied private dwellings by period of construction by city (Statistics
Canada, 2021)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1960 or before 1961 to 1980 1981 to 1990 1991 to 2000 2001 to 2010 2011 to 2021
Percent of Total Dwellings
Period of Construction
Comparison of Occupied Private Dwellings by Period of Construction by City
(Statistics Canada, 2021)
Thunder Bay
Sault Ste. Marie
Sudbury
Kenora
47
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Inadequate Housing
A dwelling is considered inadequate when it requires
major repairs (regardless of its suitability to the household
composition). Tis fgure was self-reported on the 2021
census. In Tunder Bay, 7.5% of households live in
inadequate dwellings (see fgure below). Tis means that
major repairs are needed on 3,650 housing units in the city.
Tis percentage is slightly higher (within one percent) than
in the comparison cities of Sault Ste. Marie and Greater
Sudbury. Kenora has the highest percentage of inadequate
dwellings amongst comparison cities, with 9.8% of
households considered inadequate.
Figure 37: Percent of Households in inadequate housing (requiring major repairs) by city (Statistics
Canada, 2021)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1960 or before 1961 to 1980 1981 to 1990 1991 to 2000 2001 to 2010 2011 to 2021
Percent of Total Dwellings
Period of Construction
Comparison of Occupied Private Dwellings by Period of Construction by City
(Statistics Canada, 2021)
Thunder Bay
Sault Ste. Marie
Sudbury
Kenora
48
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Core Housing Need*,
Analysis of Trends in Core Housing
Need
According to the Statistics Canada defnition, a household is
considered to be in core housing need if it meets two criteria:
1.
A household is below one or more of the national
adequacy, suitability and afordability standards; and,
2.
Te household would have to spend 30% or more of its
before-tax household income to access local housing
that meets all three standards.
Housing is considered to be afordable when housing costs
less than 30% of before-tax household income. Housing is
considered to be suitable when there are enough bedrooms
for the size and make-up of the household. Housing is
considered to be adequate when it is not in need of major
repairs.
According to the 2021 Census, there are 4,240 households
in core housing need in the City of Tunder Bay. Te
percentage of households experiencing core housing needs
in Tunder Bay (see fgure below) reveals a stark contrast
between renters and owners. While an overall 8.9% of
households have at least one core housing need, this number
is over twice as high for tenants (19.8%) and less than half
for owners (3.8%).
It is important to note that ofcial measures of those in
core housing need exclude key groups, including those
experiencing homelessness, students living independently
of their guardians, people living in congregate housing,
etc. Tis means that core housing need fgures may
underestimate overall housing need.
Of the reasons why households may be in core housing
need, the key issue in the City of Tunder Bay is housing
afordability. As shown in the chart below, 57% of census
respondents who met one of the criteria for core housing
need said it was because they were spending 30% or more
of their income on shelter costs. Another 6% said it was
because they were both spending more than 30% on their
shelter costs and that their housing was in need of major
repairs. 23% of respondents meeting the criteria said it was
because their housing was in need of major repairs but
was otherwise afordable and suitable. 11% said that their
housing was not suitable but was afordable and not in need
of major repairs. 3% of the other respondents meeting the
criteria identifed other combinations of two or more factors.
Tus, the housing crisis in the City of Tunder Bay is
primarily related to housing afordability, although the need
for housing repairs and suitable housing sizes also contribute
to housing issues in the city.
Figure 38: Percent of households in core housing need, Thunder Bay (Statistics Canada, 2021)
Percent of Households in Core Housing Need*, Thunder Bay 2021 (Statistics
Canada)
25
20
15
10
5
0
Percent (%)
Owner households
Tenant households
Overall
49
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Housing Affordability Strategy
City of Thunder Bay
0
Figure 39: City of Thunder Bay occupied private swellings by housing indicators for households
spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs, or not suitable, or major repairs needed (Statistics
Canada, 2021)
City of Thunder Bay Occupied Private Dwellings by Housing Indicators
for Households Spending 30% or More of Income on Shelter Costs, or
Not Suitable or Major Repairs Needed (Statistics Canada, 2021)
8,000
57%
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
23%
3,000
2,000
11%
6%
1,000
3%
Spending 30% or more Major repairs needed
Not suitable only
Spending 30% or more Other combination of
of income on shelter
only
of income on shelter
2 or more factors
costs only
costs and major
repairs needed
50
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Housing Affordability Strategy
City of Thunder Bay
Core Housing Need by Income
Category and Household Size
Te table below shows that households in core housing need
are mostly found in very low-income, low-income, and even
moderate-income households.
Moderate- and low-income earners in Tunder Bay are also
impacted by not being able to enter the housing market, as
shown below, with the majorities being renter households
(shown in green). Higher costs of living also impact the
ability to maintain suitable and adequate housing.
Figure 40: Percentage of households in core housing need, by income category, Thunder Bay renter
households vs. owner households
Percentage of Households in Core Housing Need, by Income Category,
Thunder Bay CY (CSD, ON) Renter Households vs Owner Households
Housing Type
Very Low Income
Owner Households
($390)
Renter Households
Income Category
(Max. affordable shelter costs)
Low Income
($975)
Moderate Income
($1560)
Median Income
($1560)
High Income
(>$2340)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
% of HH
51
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Te following table shows the total number of households
-
One person households (61% of all households, by
in Core Housing Need within the City of Tunder Bay by
household size)
household size and income category, as analyzed using the
-
Low-income households (65% of all households, by
Housing Assessment Resource Tools (HART). According
income)
to the data, of the approximately 4,225 Tunder Bay
households in core housing need, most of this need is found
in:
Table 9: Total number of households in core housing need in Thunder Bay by household size and income
category (Housing Assessment Resource Tools)
Te table below shows the core housing need by number of
bedrooms. Te primary need is for:
Recall that 1-bedroom units were exactly the type of units
that saw an overall decrease in unit numbers from 1990 to
-
1-bedroom homes (70% of all households, by number
the present day.
of bedrooms); and
-
2-bedroom homes (15% of all households, by number
of bedrooms).
Table 10: Core housing need by number of bedrooms in Thunder Bay (Housing Assessment Resource Tools)
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Te table below shows that in 2021, single mother-led
households represented the largest portion of priority
populations in Tunder Bay that are in Core Housing
Need. Similarly impacted are Indigenous-led, Black-led,
Newcomer-led, and transgender or non-binary households.
Seniors, those with physical or mental limitations, and
households with a household head under age 25 continue
to be priority populations whose income levels are not
able to match the market availability of housing within the
community, which disproportionately impacts their ability to
aford safe, secure, and afordable housing.
Figure 41: Percentage of households in core housing need by priority population in Thunder Bay (2021)
Percentage of Households in Core Housing Need by Priority Population, 2021 Thunder Bay CY
(CSD, ON)
Single mother-led HH
Women-led HH
Indigenous HH
Visible minority HH
Black-led HH
New migrant-led HH
Refugee claimant-led HH
HH head under 25
HH head over 65
HH over 85
Transgender or Non-binary HH
HH with cognitive, mental, or
addictions activity limitation
HH with physcial activity limitation
Community (all HH)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
% of Priority Population HH
53
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Housing Affordability Strategy
City of Thunder Bay
3. Projected Future Housing Needs
Tis section includes projections about the City of Tunder
Bay's afordable housing need, demand, supply and
condition for the next fve years, assuming no interventions.
Te projections are based on socioeconomic, economic and
demographic trends in the City of Tunder Bay and larger
region, including historic changes in population, population
demographics, and information on the local economy and
employment.
Population Projections
Te Tunder Bay Housing Land Needs Study and Strategy
(2024) provided three population projections for the future
of Tunder Bay: a low-growth scenario, medium-growth
scenario, and high-growth scenario. Te projections were
based on socio-economic, economic and demographic
trends in the City of Tunder Bay and larger region,
including historic changes in population, population
demographics, information on the local economy and
employment, and through Ontario's Long-Term Report on
the Economy (Ministry of Finance, 2020). Note that these
projections use census data, and therefore do not refect for
the potential undercounted populations identifed above.
Under all three scenarios, the City is expected to grow (or,
in the case of the low-growth scenario, decline) at a modest
pace.
Te City's demographic makeup will also change over this
time period. Te population pyramids and chart below show
the estimated demographic makeup of Tunder Bay as it
was in the 2021 census period and how it is projected to
look in the year 2031 according to the Tunder Bay Housing
Land Needs Study and Strategy's high growth scenario.
Te changes show an increase in the average age of the
population, from 43.8 to 44.5. Most of this growth will take
place in the age 65-84 cohort, which will grow 5% to make
up 23.8% of the entire population in the next 5 years.
Table 11: Projected Demographic Changes 2021 - 2031 (High Growth Scenario)
54
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6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
% of Total
Age
City of Thunder Bay Total Population by Age Cohort (2031)
Female %
Male %
Housing Affordability Strategy
City of Thunder Bay
Figure 42: Projected Change in Demographic Makeup of City of Thunder Bay 2021 - 2031 (High Growth Scenario)
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
% of Total
Age
City of Thunder Bay Total Population by Age Cohort (2021)
Female %
Male %
55
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Te chart below shows the total projected population
changes to the year 2046 in the three scenarios in the
Tunder Bay Housing Land Needs Study and Strategy. Te
table has also been modifed to include targets from the
City of Tunder Bay's Smart Growth Action Plan, released
in December 2025. Tis plan includes a target population
growth of 1% annually (5.1% over a 5-year period). Note that
the chart below also uses the census for the base population
data, which difers slightly from the base numbers used in
the Smart Growth Action Plan.
Based on these four scenarios, the estimated census
population for the City of Tunder Bay for the year 2031
ranges from 108,761 (low-growth scenario) to 120,230
(Smart Growth Action Plan target).
Projected Population
Figure 43: City of Thunder Bay Population Projections - Thunder Bay Housing Land Needs Study and
Strategy, with Smart Growth Action Plan Targets (2021-2046)
City of Thunder Bay Population Projections - Thunder Bay Housing Land Needs Study and
Strategy, with Smart Growth Action Plan Targets (2021-2046)
145,000
140,000
135,000
130,000
125,000
120,000
115,000
110,000
105,000
100,000
2021
2026
2031
2036
204 1
204 6
Low Growth
108,843
108,802
108,761
108,719
108,678
108,637
Medium Growth
108,843
109,785
11 0,735
11 1,6 94
112,66 1
113,636
High Growth
108,843
11 0,994
113,242
115,592
118,049
120,619
Smart Growth Target*
108,843
114,39 5
120,230
126,363
132,809
139,584
Year /
Projected Population
*Note: Te Smart Growth Action Plan target is shown here using the 2021 Census data as a
base line and applies a 1% annual growth.
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Housing Need Projections
Te table below, adapted from the Tunder Bay Housing
Land Needs Study and Strategy, shows the City's projected
future housing needs to 2031 according to the four scenarios
identifed above. Te projections factor in the current defcit
in the housing stock; the rate of retirement of housing stock
(103 units lost in a 5-year period); and the OECD target
housing standard.
According to the table, Tunder Bay will need to construct
anywhere between 1,071 total new housing units (low
growth scenario), 1,945 new housing units (medium growth
scenario), 3,926 new units (high growth scenario) and 6,332
new housing units (Smart Growth target) in the ten-year
period between 2021 and 2031 (or 107, 195, 393, and 633
units per year, respectively).
Table 12: Future Housing Need by Growth Scenario
* Based on existing housing defcit of 865 and an average of 103 residential units lost in a 5-year period, plus factoring in
OECD standards of 462 housing units per 1,000 residents for new residents from 2021.
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Affordable Housing Need Projections
Te Ofcial Plan is the primary document for guiding
land use in the City of Tunder Bay. Adopted in 2019, the
document outlines Tunder Bay's goals, objectives, and
policies for growth and development. Te Plan covers
both urban and rural lands, public infrastructure, and
natural heritage. Te policies established in the Plan set the
foundation for all other policies, by-laws, and municipal
activities carried out in Tunder Bay.
One of the Ofcial Plan's guiding principles is related to
creating diverse and afordable housing. It says, "Te City
will encourage the development of diverse and afordable
housing to help attract and retain young families, to
accommodate people of all ages and abilities, and to provide
housing options for an aging population." (p. 5)
To accomplish this guiding principle, the Ofcial Plan
includes several general objectives related to housing
afordability. Te City will a) "Promote a range and variety
of dwelling unit types and an appropriate mix of densities
that will facilitate a supply of housing that is accessible,
afordable, accommodating to a mix of demographic and
income groups, and is appropriate to the needs of the
community;" and b) "Encourage the provision of ownership
and rental housing forms and densities that are afordable for
lower to moderate income households" (p. 72). According to
the Ofcial Plan, the type of residential units most likely to
be afordable will be smaller unit or found in multiple unit
residential buildings.
Te Ofcial Plan's goal is that 20% of all new residential units
constructed each year are afordable in accordance with the
following criteria:
a) In the case of home ownership, the least expensive of:
-
Housing for which the purchase price results in
annual accommodation costs which do not exceed
30% of gross annual household income for low- and
moderate-income households; or
-
Housing for which the purchase price is at least 10%
below the average purchase price of a resale unit in
the regional market area.
b) In the case of rental housing, the least expensive of:
-
A unit for which the rent does not exceed 30%
of gross annual household income for low- and
moderate-income households; or
-
A unit for which the rent is at or below the average
market rent of a unit in the regional market area." (p.
75).
Te table below shows the annual and 5-year targets for the
number of new afordable housing units needed in order to
meet the Ofcial Plan's goal of 20% of all new units being
afordable.
Table 13: Affordable Housing Need Projection for the City of Thunder Bay (Annual and 5-Year)
*2024-2034.
58
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Housing Affordability Strategy
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Te bottom of the table includes data from several other
projections, which are helpful in comparing the identifed
targets to the targets derived from the four growth scenarios.
-
Tunder Bay's Provincial Housing Target: In August
2023, the Ontario government assigned the City of
Tunder Bay a housing target of 2,200 new homes by
the year 2031 (note that an extra 550 units are added
to the table above to account for the two missing years
needed to make the fgure cover a 10 year period
like other data in the table). Tis would require the
construction of 275 housing units per year over the
eight-year period between 2023 and 2031. Using
the 20% afordability goal identifed in the Ofcial
Plan, this means that a minimum of 55 units per year
would have to meet the afordability criteria (or 275
over a 5-year period).
-
DSSAB Deeply Afordable Housing Units: In March
2025, the District of Tunder Bay Social Services
Administration Board (DSSAB) released their 10-Year
Housing and Homelessness Plan - Housing Targets
Final Update. Te Plan projected a need of 261 new
deeply afordable units within the City of Tunder
Bay over a 10-year period ending in 2034. Tis would
equate to 26 units per year or 131 over a 5-year
period. Note that the DSSAB total does not include
all afordable units that the City would need, just
those managed by the DSSAB. Te plan shows there
is the highest need for units for single people (516
units needed by 2034, although some of these might
be converted from existing rooms for families and
seniors, where there is a surplus of 115 and 140 units,
respectively), which are predominantly 1-bedroom
units (325 new 1-bedroom units are needed). Tere is
also a need for 23 new 2-bedroom units and 34 new
4+bedroom units. Tere is an existing surplus of 121
3-bedroom units.
-
DSSAB Supportive Housing Units: A news article
by TBnewswatch.com published December 15, 2025
reported that the District of Tunder Bay Social
Services Administration Board (DSSAB) is working
with OrgCode on a yet unreleased district-wide
homelessness report. According to the article, 840
new supportive housing units are needed to meet
demand in the district over the next fve years. Based
on other numbers by the DSSAB, approximately 80%
of the units needed in the district are for the City of
Tunder Bay. Using this assumption, the City would
need to have 672 new supportive housing units over a
5-year period, or 134 units developed per year.
-
Built for Good: Te Built for Good: Delivering the
Housing Ontario Needs report (2025), prepared
by the United Way and the Co-operative Housing
Federation of Canada, sets out a path to solve core
housing need in Ontario by achieving ten-year targets
for the creation of deeply afordable housing units,
moderately afordable units and for the acquisition,
repair, and maintenance of afordable units by non-
profts and housing co-operatives. Te report further
breaks down the targets by shorter milestones and by
region. Tis Tunder Bay Housing Afordability Study
uses the fve-year milestones identifed in the report
for the northwest region, assuming that 47 percent of
the units identifed for northwestern Ontario will be
built in the City of Tunder Bay, based on the current
population makeup of the region. Tis approach
would require the construction of a minimum of 158
housing units per year that meet the afordability
criteria (790 over a 5-year period). Te Built for
Good report also breaks down the type of afordable
housing needed into diferent categories, based on the
particular need. Tis break down is used to inform
the need in Tunder Bay on the table below.
Te table below breaks down the afordable housing
identifed in the four growth targets identifed above into
more nuanced information about the afordability and
tenure criteria for that housing. Tese targets are informed
by the Built for Good: Delivering the Housing Ontario Needs
report, the Tunder Bay Housing Land Needs Study, and the
research completed as part of this Tunder Bay Housing
Afordability Study.
59
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60
Table 14: Affordable housing targets for Thunder Bay (Allocated based on Built for Good Targets)
*Thunder Bay DSSAB may provide different target numbers for deeply affordable units.
The table shows the following highlights:
-
A target of a minimum of 7 to 40 new moderately
affordable ownership homes per year (which
primarily includes housing types such as single
detached homes, duplexes, condominium units,
and row housing), for the purpose of entry-level or
affordable home ownership. This equates to 33 to
201 homes over a 5-year period. Note that it may
be challenging to build new housing that is less than
30% of a household's income; however, it may be
possible to meet the other definition of ownership
affordability, in which the purchase price is at least
10% below the average purchase price of a resale unit
in the regional market area. Affordable ownership
housing, if following the definition of a home costing
10% less than the average home purchase for an area,
would mean a maximum price of $321,200 based on
2024 numbers.
-
A target of a minimum of 5 to 31 new moderately
affordable units per year in non-profit or co-operative
housing. This equates to 25 to 153 units over a 5-year
period. Of these units, it is recommended that at least
15% should be allocated for Indigenous households
and Indigenous-led housing providers, recognizing
the significant Indigenous population in Thunder Bay
(note: the Built for Good report recommends 8% to
be dedicated to Indigenous housing Province-wide).
-
A target of a minimum 9 to 56 new deeply
affordable units per year, or 47 to 281 over a 5-year
period. [Note that this total is approximately 30
percent of the total deeply affordable housing units
needed; the other 70 percent will need to be enabled
through new benefits and rent subsidies for tenants.
These numbers are not included here because
they do not fall within the authority of the City of
Thunder Bay]. The number of deeply affordable units
needed includes supportive housing for households
with developmental disabilities; households with
mental health and addictions challenges; households
anticipated to be exiting homelessness; and
households with physical disabilities as well as deeply
affordable housing units specifically allocated for
Indigenous households and Indigenous-led housing
providers.
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Table 15: New affordable units needed by number of bedrooms in Thunder Bay (Built for Good, 2025)
Te table shows:
-
57 to 346 of the afordable units built over a 5-year
period should be 1-bedroom units. Tis number
factors in that 70% of all current core housing need
was in 1-bedroom units and that 61 percent of the
households in core-housing need were one-person
households. To address this existing gap, this plan
recommends that 85% of the new deeply afordable
units and 70% of the new moderately afordable non-
proft or co-op housing units should be 1-bedroom in
size.
-
20 to 121 of the afordable units built over a 5-year
period should be 2-bedroom units. Tis includes
10 percent of the deeply afordable, 15 percent of the
moderately afordable rental units and 35 percent of
the moderately afordable single-detached homes.
-
28 to 168 of the afordable units built over a 5-year
period should be 3- or more bedroom units. Tis
includes 5 percent of the deeply afordable units, 15
percent of moderately afordable rental units and 65
percent of the moderately afordable single-detached
homes.
Over the next fve years, Tunder Bay should also encourage
afordable housing options that specifcally supports:
-
A gradually aging population, including increasing
availability of a variety of housing types and tenures
that are suitable for people aged 65 and up.
-
Indigenous populations, as Tunder Bay is a key hub
for many surrounding First Nations.
-
Newcomers, as Tunder Bay attracts many people
from other countries for education and employment.
-
Transgender or non-binary households.
-
Housing for people with physical or mental
limitations.
-
Housing for young people (with a household head
under age 25).
-
A variety of housing types and tenures, including
the support for housing co-operatives; tiny homes
or small homes (including groups of these in pocket
neighbourhoods); and non-proft housing that meets
the needs of particular groups or demographics (e.g.
housing for artists, etc.).
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City of Thunder Bay
4. Tools for Developing and Protecting
Affordable Housing in Thunder Bay
Tis section describes four diferent categories of tools that can be utilized by the City of Tunder Bay to develop and protect
afordable housing:
-
Tools to reduce the capital and operating costs of a project;
-
Tools to get projects of the ground faster;
-
Tools to create greater certainty around approvals; and
-
Other Tools for Creation & Protection of Afordable Housing
Tese categories are derived from those found in Te Municipal Role in Housing (2022), particularly the article entitled, "Non-
Proft Rental Housing: Streamline Approvals Process to Accelerate Construction" by Lilian Chau and Jill Atkey.
Below is a short description of each tool and its function. Tese tools were presented and discussed at the afordable housing
stakeholder workshop held in October 2025.
Tools to Reduce the Capital and
Operating Costs of a Project
Exemptions on permit fees
-
All new construction development projects require
fees to be paid for applications and permitting.
-
Municipalities can exempt permit fees, development
charges and other zoning/planning charges on
development.
-
Exempting fees can have a signifcant impact on
reducing the cost of creating new housing.
-
Te City of Tunder Bay does not implement
Development Cost Charges. Tis means that all
housing development in Tunder Bay--afordable
and market housing alike--is already exempt from
these fees, which can be signifcant in other Ontario
cities.
-
Tunder Bay already reduces building and permit fees
for developments that provide afordable housing.
Te City of Tunder Bay Housing Community
Improvement Plan (CIP) sets out fve Financial
Incentive Programs available to eligible applicants,
including the Planning and Building Permit Fees
Grant. Te Planning and Building Permit Fee Grant
may cover up to 100% of the eligible fees required
by the City for a proposed project, to a maximum of
$10,000. For large developments, however, permit
fees will likely surpass the $10,000 maximum ofered
through the grant. Additional exemptions on permit
fees could help to incentivize the development of
afordable housing.
Property tax increment grants and
rebates
-
Property taxes can make up a large portion of
operating expenses for afordable housing.
-
Specialized municipal grants / rebates can cover the
property taxes, or a multi-year agreement can reduce
taxes for a certain number of years. Other Ontario
municipalities have tax increment grants that range
from 3 to 20 years.
-
Tax increment grants are a popular tool because
municipalities can use them to support afordable
housing without having to provide a direct fnancial
contribution that would come out of an annual
budget.
-
Instead, municipalities give up some or all of the
future property tax revenue that would have been
earned over the grant period.
-
Tunder Bay currently does not ofer tax-increment
grants.
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Housing Affordability Strategy
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Multi-Residential & Affordable
Affordable Housing Reserve Funds
Housing Tax Rates
& Grants
-
Historically, diferent residential property categories
have diferent tax rates, with multi-residential set at
the highest rate.
-
Some ON municipalities have lowered this rate for
multi-residential to incentivize housing development.
Tunder Bay has now set the municipal tax rate for
new multi-residential at the same rate as other non-
multi residential buildings.
-
In 2025, ON passed legislation to create an "afordable
rental housing" category with lower tax rates. Te
legislation allows municipalities to reduce taxes
up to 35 percent for these afordable rental units.
Municipalities have been slow to adopt this, but
some upper tier municipalities (e.g. SDG Counties)
have enabled their member counties to enact the tax
category.
-
Tunder Bay chose not to implement the afordable
rental housing tax subclass in the 2025 budget but
may examine this in the future.
-
Tunder Bay has a tax rebate for registered charitable
organizations and not-for-proft organizations,
who may apply for a tax rebate of 40% of the taxes
payable on eligible property it occupies in one of the
commercial classes or industrial classes. It currently
does not apply in residential classes.
Municipal Capital Facilities /
Municipal Housing Facility By-Law
-
Ontario Regulation 603/06 Municipal and School
Capital Facilities - Agreement and Tax Exemptions
enables municipalities to exempt land from all or part
of the taxes levied for municipal and school purposes
if it falls under one of several classes of municipal
capital facilities, including municipal housing project
facilities.
-
To exempt taxes on municipal housing project
facilities, the municipality must frst enact a
"municipal housing facility by-law", which must:
i.
Defne "Afordable Housing"
ii.
Contain policies regarding eligibility for the
units
iii. Include provisions that must be included in
agreements with housing providers
-
Tis tool is used in municipalities of all sizes in
Ontario, from Kenora to North Bay to Toronto.
-
Tunder Bay has not adopted a Municipal Housing
Project Facilities By-Law.
-
A municipality can establish a reserve fund to provide
grants to afordable housing providers.
-
Funding can come from a variety of sources, such as
levies, taxes, private donations, or other fundraising
mechanisms.
-
Te City of Tunder Bay does not have a specifc
afordable housing reserve fund and has not
explored options to enable private donations or other
fundraising mechanisms to contribute to housing
afordability.
-
However, Tunder Bay has grants that support
afordable housing (although some of these funds are
currently set to expire once the Housing Accelerator
Fund period concludes):
i.
Te Afordable Rental Housing Funding
Program supports nonproft organizations that
create afordable housing in the City for low to
moderate income households.
ii.
Te Housing Community Improvement
Plan (CIP) has 5 grant streams: Planning
and Building Permit Fees Grant; Additional
Dwelling Units Grant; Servicing Grant; Multi-
Unit Residential Grant; Housing Rehabilitation
and Conversion Grant.
Seed Funding for Affordable
Housing Projects
-
Municipalities can provide funding to organizations
looking to develop afordable housing.
-
Funds are intended to support pre-development
activities, such as studies, application fees, site
assessments, and design work. Other municipalities
in Ontario, from North Bay to Lambton County
(Sarnia), have set up afordable housing seed
programs that fund anywhere from $5,000 to
$200,000 per project.
-
Tunder Bay does not currently ofer seed funding,
although this approach was recommended by several
interviewees. A memorandum to the Mayor's Task
Force on Afordable Housing also acknowledges the
difculties many afordable housing developers have
with securing pre-build costs for projects.
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Housing Affordability Strategy
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Parking Reform
Tools to Get Projects off the
-
Most zoning by-laws include parking minimums:
requiring a certain amount of parking spaces to be
provided in every development, according to the zone
or, more commonly, the type of use on the site.
-
Parking resources ofen exceed need and add
signifcant cost to housing.
-
Removing or diminishing parking minimums reduces
costs, possibly increases unit density.
-
Approximately 140 municipalities across Canada
have reduced parking minimums or implemented
parking maximums. In 2020, Edmonton became one
of the frst major cities in Canada to remove parking
minimums citywide.
-
In Tunder Bay, the city still has parking minimums
for its residential zones. In the primary residential
zones (urban neighbourhoods), 1 parking space is
typically required per home.
-
For apartments with more than 6 homes, there is a
requirement of providing a minimum of 1.25 parking
spaces per home.
-
Parking is already reduced in residential zones for
care housing but could be done for other uses.
Ground Faster
Streamline Development Processes
-
Te development process can take a lot of time, cost
a lot of money, and include a lot of uncertainty about
approvals being granted.
-
Streamlining this process can improve success and
speed of housing delivery and reduce cost.
-
Non-proft and co-op housing initiatives would
especially beneft from streamlined development.
-
Streamlining involves a full review of the entire
rezoning and development permit process and
assessing where changes could be made to:
i.
Reduce the overall length of the process,
ii.
Limit the number of required revisions, and
iii. Minimize the chance of a rejection of the permit
or the inclusion of conditions that hinder the
ability of the project to provide housing at
afordable rates.
-
Te CMHC Housing Accelerator Fund Best Practices
list included several strategies for streamlining
development processes, such as to: Fast-track
permit reviews for non-market housing; eliminate
rezoning, public hearing and urban design review
panel requirements for afordable housing; and create
a concierge service to help non-proft providers
navigate the development and building permit
process.
-
Tunder Bay has been developing an online system
for planning applications and building permits.
Te online portal can be used to apply for pre-
consultation, single-family home building permits,
multi-unit residential building permits, demolition
permits, and permits for accessory structures.
-
Tunder Bay's Afordable Housing Navigator
provides free-of-charge guidance to navigate the
development process, where to fnd land, and funding
opportunities for afordable housing. Te Navigator
identifes zoning by-law and policy amendments
to further create systemic change in support of
afordable housing.
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Housing Affordability Strategy
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housing to be built immediately.
Municipal Arms-Length
Development Corporation
-
A municipal arms-length development corporation
is an agency funded by the city that operates
independently from its municipal government
-
Allows for fexibility and focus in pursuing its goals:
i.
Creation of afordable housing and economic
development.
ii.
Innovative partnerships in the disposal of city-
owned land for development.
-
Tis has worked successfully in other cities across
Canada. For example, Winnipeg's CentreVenture
Development Corporation has facilitated more than
150 development projects in Winnipeg's downtown
area since 1999. CentreVenture actively acquires and
markets derelict and underutilized properties for sale.
-
Tere are no arm's-length development corporations
in Tunder Bay. However, several recent studies in
Tunder Bay have recommended the creation of an
arms-length development corporation, including the
Tunder Bay Housing Land Needs Study & Strategy
(2023) and the Tools to Revitalize Downtown Fort
William report (2024).
-
An arm's-length development corporations appealed
to stakeholders interviewed for this project, who
thought that a development corporation could be set
up specifcally to encourage development of specifc
types of housing, such as co-op housing.
-
A City of Tunder Bay development corporation
could kickstart downtown revitalization projects and
initiate the strategic disposal of important parcels of
land by preparing afordable housing developers.
Leveraging Public Lands for
Housing
-
Surplus municipally-owned land can be leveraged for
afordable and co-op housing projects.
-
Improved access to land resources will help to get
building projects underway much faster.
-
Many cities across Canada maintain websites with
the list of available non-market afordable housing
lands. Cities will ofen provide these lots to afordable
housing developers and rezone them to allow for
-
In 2025, Tunder Bay issued a call for proposals to
develop ten "Opportunity Sites", which were "prime
for high-quality, multi-residential and mixed-use
projects that support Tunder Bay's bold development
vision." Tese sites are zoned appropriately and had
the required studies completed before putting them
up on the list.
-
Tunder Bay's Land-Related Financial Assistance
Policy provides a 25% discount to a maximum of
$25,000 to registered non-proft organizations to lease
or purchase city-owned lands.
Land Banking and Housing
Acquisition
-
Land banking is when a municipality actively pursues
land and building acquisition for the specifc purpose
of developing afordable housing more rapidly.
-
Land is removed from the speculative market, enables
scaled-up developments, and forms the basis of
project agreements with non-profts and co-ops.
-
In 2020, for example, the City of Greater Sudbury
Council approved Phase 1 of the Afordable Housing
Land Banking Strategy, which set up the framework
for evaluating surplus municipal properties to
determine suitability for afordable housing. Greater
Sudbury's land banking strategies included:
i.
Divesting of sites at less than market value
with an afordable housing agreement in
placeInnovative partnerships in the disposal of
city-owned land for development.
ii.
Selling sites at full market value and using
the revenues to fund afordable housing
development at a diferent location.
iii. Utilizing funds to acquire strategic sites that
meet locational criteria for afordable housing
development.
-
Te City of Tunder Bay does not have Ofcial Plan
policies related to land supply. Te Maamawe -
Growing Together Strategic Plan 2023-2027 has an
action plan to identify surplus City lands for housing,
but there is no directive to strategically acquire new
lands for future afordable housing development.
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Housing Affordability Strategy
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Tools to Provide Greater Certainty
Around Approvals
Pre-Zoning and Upzoning
Counter-NIMBY Strategy
-
Pre-zoning is when a city changes the zone of a site
before development.
-
Upzoning is when a city changes the zone of a site or
the rules for a particular zone to allow for increased
density.
-
Tis adds certainty and saves a housing developer
from having to spend the time and money to make
these changes for a new project.
-
Te majority of municipalities who were awarded
funding through the CMHC's Housing Accelerator
Fund were required to participate in some level of
upzoning (e.g. allowing a minimum of 4 units as-of-
right in low-density zones).
-
Te City of Tunder Bay already permitted up to 4
units to be built in low-density neighbourhoods as-of-
right across the city before the Housing Accelerator
Fund made this a requirement. However, Tunder
Bay continued to make further amendments to its
City-wide Ofcial Plan and Zoning By-law following
its successful application to the CMHC Housing
Accelerator Fund to continue to support housing
afordability, including permitting 6 units on one
lot as-of-right in the Urban Low-rise Zone (UL)
and allowing mid-rise and high-rise residential uses
within specifc non-residential areas.
-
NIMBY (not in my backyard) sentiments are a
common roadblock to new development, especially
for rental units, afordable units, transitional housing
units and social housing units.
-
A communication strategy can educate the public
about common discriminatory myths regarding new
builds and diferent community needs for housing.
-
Elsewhere in Ontario, Lambton County (Sarnia)
prepared an engagement campaign entitled "Be
Part of the Solution", which includes content on
myths about homelessness, FAQs on "why are we
seeing more homelessness on our streets?", "What is
considered afordable housing?", and other related
topics.
-
Tunder Bay does not currently have a counter-
NIMBY engagement strategy. Several interviewees
suggested this would be a good approach.
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Housing Affordability Strategy
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Other Tools for Creation &
Protection of Affordable Housing
Vacant Home Taxes
-
In March 2024, new Ontario legislation enabled all
single- and upper-tier municipalities the ability to
impose a tax on vacant homes.
-
Tis tax is intended to increase afordable housing
supply by incentivizing owners to sell or rent
unoccupied homes.
-
Municipalities can set their own vacant home tax
rates. Toronto, for example, increased its vacant home
tax rate from 1% to 3% of current assessment value
in 2024; residential property owners are required to
declare occupancy status of their property annually.
In Sault Ste. Marie, the vacant home tax rate is 4% of
assessment value; the program is complaint-based.
People who suspect a home is vacant can submit a tip
for the City to investigate.
-
Tunder Bay has not established a Vacant Home Tax
By-Law.
Rental Conversion Policies
-
Municipalities can use rental conversion policies to
set limits and restrictions on when developers are
permitted to convert rental units into non-rental
housing tenures, such as condominiums.
-
Tese policies are ofen set in a municipality's ofcial
plan or other key planning documents and are usually
tied to low vacancy rates.
-
Tunder Bay's Ofcial Plan includes a rental
conversion policy: "To protect the City's supply of
rental accommodations, the conversion of rental
residential properties to condominium or co-
operative will be discouraged when the vacancy rate
for all rental units, as determined by the Canada
Mortgage and Housing Corporation, is 3.0% or less"
(p. 75); however, the City did not specifcally restrict
conversion when vacancy rates fell below 3.0%.
Short-Term Rental Regulation
-
A short-term rental is all or part of a dwelling unit
(including a house, condominium, or apartment)
that is rented out for payment by a property owner or
primary tenant as a temporary accommodation (the
exact length is defned by each municipality).
-
Short-term rentals are typically booked through
online platforms such as Airbnb or Vrbo.
-
Short-term rentals can include bed and breakfasts, but
exclude hotels, motels, and student residences owned
or operated by government funded or educational
institutions.
-
It also does not include other accommodations where
payment is not involved.
-
Unlicensed short-term rentals such as Airbnb can
occupy viable housing stock that would otherwise be
available to locals.
-
Regulation of short-term rentals is therefore ofen
done to prevent this loss of housing stock.
-
Tunder Bay requires Short Term Accommodation
(STA) operators to collect the Municipal
Accommodation Tax (MAT) (5%)
-
STA providers must complete an Accommodation
Establishment Information form and submit this to
the City 30 days afer start of operations.
-
Te City of Tunder Bay Zoning By-law does
not currently include a separate designation or
regulations for a short-term rental.
-
In 2021, there were 319 short-term rentals in Tunder
Bay, with 69 of them classifed as potential long-
term dwellings (PLTDs). A 2024 TBDSSAB report
identifed 385 AirBnB rentals in the City. Tis study
noted, "It is identifed that short term rentals do not
have a substantial impact on the typical rental market
in the District of Tunder Bay."
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Housing Affordability Strategy
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Partner with Indigenous &
Inclusionary Zoning
Newcomer Organizations
-
Municipalities must actively work to build
partnerships with Indigenous-, Newcomer, and
minority-led organizations involved in the provision
of housing that is both afordable and best suited to
meet the needs of their communities.
-
Indigenous communities and people of colour
disproportionately face difculties in accessing safe
and appropriate housing, ofen over generations.
-
Indigenous-led organizations have been at the
forefront of housing in Tunder Bay for decades:
Te Native People of Tunder Bay Development
Corporation (NPTBDC) was created in 1973; Matawa
Non-Proft Housing Corporation was established in
1996.
-
Te Maamawe, Growing Together: City of Tunder
Bay Strategic Plan 2023-2027 is a high-level plan of
Tunder Bay's goals for City operations that honour
Indigenous interests, inclusivity, community safety,
community wellness, growth, and sustainability.
-
Te City has an Indigenous Relations Ofce, which
works with Indigenous partners and communities
while advancing Indigenous peoples' inclusion in the
City's opportunities and growth.
-
Te Coordinated Housing Access Table consists
of 14 organizations that provide homeless support
and housing access services. Beendigen, Dilico,
Anishinabek Family Care, Ka Na Chi Hih, and
Ontario Native Women's Association are members.
-
However, stakeholder engagement pointed to the
need to build more housing that is afordable and
suitable to meet the specifc needs of Indigenous
people in Tunder Bay.
-
Inclusionary zoning is a tool where municipalities
require new developments--particularly those over a
certain number of units--to provide a percentage of
those units as afordable or social housing.
-
Te legislation around inclusionary zoning varies
from province to province. In Ontario, the Ontario
Planning Act includes several provisions related to
inclusionary zoning.
-
Bill 108 (the More Homes, More Choice Act, 2019),
enacted on June 6, 2019, amended the Planning
Act to limit inclusionary zoning to Protected Major
Transit Station Areas and areas where a Development
Permit System is in place.
-
Te Development Permit System (DPS) was replaced
in 2017 by the Community Planning Permit System
(CPPS).
-
Currently, there are difering interpretations on where
inclusionary zoning may be implemented based on
the Planning Act provisions.
-
While inclusionary zoning (IZ) may be implemented
within a Protected Major Transit Station Area, it
remains unclear whether a CPPS would need to be
established by the Minister in order to implement IZ,
or if it could apply within a City-initiated CPPS Area.
-
Tunder Bay does not have inclusionary zoning and
may not be allowed to adopt it, depending upon
the interpretation of the Planning Act. To pursue
inclusionary zoning, Tunder Bay would have to
lobby the Province to change Planning Act legislation
or get more clarity on whether there is any way it
could be done under the current system.
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Housing Affordability Strategy
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Summary
Tis Housing Afordability Strategy presents a
comprehensive assessment of housing afordability in
Tunder Bay and outlines a strategic framework to address
current and future housing needs. Te Strategy builds on
prior studies, data analysis, and stakeholder engagement to
guide municipal actions aimed at improving housing supply
and overall afordability.
While Tunder Bay has a reputation as an afordable city,
recent years have seen rapid increases in both rental and
ownership costs, making housing less attainable for many
residents. Tis Strategy emphasizes the importance of
looking at afordability across the full housing continuum,
ranging from supportive housing to market ownership
housing. It highlights the need for a balanced supply
across this continuum to meet diverse community needs,
particularly for vulnerable populations.
An analysis of current conditions shows that Tunder
Bay's population is relatively stable but aging, with notable
concentrations of young adults (likely students) and older
residents. Income data indicates that many households fall
into ranges where they struggle to aford market housing but
do not qualify for assistance, reinforcing the need for more
moderately afordable housing options.
Te housing market analysis identifes several key
challenges. Rental supply has not kept pace with demand,
vacancy rates are low, and rents have increased signifcantly
over time. Homeownership has also become less accessible
due to rising prices. A portion of the housing stock is aging
and in need of repair, further limiting suitable housing
availability. Additionally, a sizable number of households are
in core housing need, meaning they cannot access adequate,
suitable, and afordable housing.
Population trends and projections suggest there will
be continued pressure on the housing system over the
next 5 years. While natural population growth is limited
due to higher death rates than births, migration--
including immigration and movement from surrounding
communities--continues to drive demand.
Looking ahead, the Strategy projects future housing demand
under diferent growth scenarios and establishes targets
for new housing units, including afordable units by type
and bedroom size. Tese projections highlight the need for
sustained and coordinated housing development over the
coming years.
To address these challenges, the report outlines a range of
tools available to the City. Tese include fnancial tools to
reduce development costs, such as grants, tax incentives, and
fee exemptions; regulatory tools to streamline approvals and
provide greater certainty; and land-based strategies such as
leveraging public land and land banking. Te Strategy also
emphasizes the importance of partnerships, particularly
with non-proft organizations and Indigenous groups,
and recognizes that many factors infuencing housing
afordability extend beyond municipal control.
Overall, the Strategy concludes that improving housing
afordability in Tunder Bay will require a coordinated,
multi-faceted approach. While the City has an important
role to play, collaboration with other levels of government
and community partners will be essential. Te Strategy
provides a roadmap to guide municipal decision-making and
support the development of an accompanying Action Plan
to implement specifc measures to help make housing more
afordable for all Tunder Bay residents in the years to come.
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cfm?DGUIDlist=2021A00053548044&GENDERlist=
1&HEADERlist=0&Lang=E&STATISTIClist=
1&SearchText=North+Bay
Statistics Canada. (2021). Census Profle, 2021 Census
Population: Profle table Timmins, City (CY) Ontario
[Census subdivision]. https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-
recensement/2021/dp-pd/prof/details/page.
cfm?DGUIDlist=2021A00053556027&GENDERlist=
1&HEADERlist=0&Lang=E&STATISTIClist
=1&SearchText=Timmins
TBDSSAB. (2025). Te District of Tunder Bay Social Services
Administration Board.
United Way and the Co-operative Housing Federation
of Canada. (2025). Built for Good: Delivering the Housing
Ontario Needs. https://www.unitedwaygt.org/wp-content/
uploads/2025/07/2025_Built_for_Good_Report.pdf
University of British Columbia. (2025). Housing Needs
Assessment Tool (HART). https://hart.ubc.ca/housing-needs-
assessment-tool/
70
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1
Housing Affordability Action Plan
(2026 - 2031)
May 20, 2026
The Housing Affordability Action Plan presents a set of actions to guide administration's work on
housing over the next 5-years. The actions in this plan are intended to improve housing affordability
by reducing barriers to development across the housing continuum, increasing supports for non-
market affordable housing providers, and enabling policies to help preserve the supply of existing
affordable housing.
This action plan was prepared in consultation with stakeholders that have been working to provide
affordable housing in Thunder Bay and surrounding areas, the Mayor's Taskforce on Building More
Homes Advisory Committee, and internal departments, informed by the Housing Affordability
Strategy prepared by HTFC Planning & Design.
Alignment with the Smart Growth Action Plan
Housing affordability is critical to the success of Thunder Bay's growth objectives. This action plan
is one of the outcomes of action R16 (Housing Mix and Affordability) in the Smart Growth Action
Plan (SGAP). The implementation of this action plan, and its principles, will help inform 24 actions
in the SGAP (Appendix A). In addition, many of the SGAP actions will support housing affordability.
Targets
1. Close the housing deficit by meeting the international Organisation for Economic Co-
operation and Development standard of 462 housing units per 1,000 usual residents.
2. 20% of all new residential units constructed each year are affordable, in line with the
Official Plan.
3. Reduce the number of households living in core housing need by 20%, from the baseline
established in the 2026 census.
Scope
Meeting our targets will require supply across the housing continuum (image 1).
The City of Thunder Bay is primarily responsible for the right side of the housing continuum,
affordable and market housing. The District of Thunder Bay Social Services Administration Board
(TBDSSAB) is the provincial service system manager for the provision of housing on the left side of
the housing continuum, from homelessness to community housing. Although the City's focus is on
affordable and market housing, many actions in this plan will support the TBDSSAB and other non-
market housing providers that respond to transitional, supportive, and community housing needs.
Page 93 of 116
2
This Action Plan is not a duplication of efforts. It is intended to provide a roadmap to further define
the role of the City in the broader issue of housing affordability and build on the work carried out
through the Housing Accelerator Program.
While this plan is intended to guide the City of Thunder Bay and not external organizations or other
levels of government, achieving our targets will require significant funding from other orders of
government and collaboration across the community.
Image 1. The Housing Continuum.
Pillars
The Housing Affordability Action Plan includes 44 actions across 6 pillars:
1. Data collection, reporting, and integration.
2. Getting projects off the ground faster.
3. Making municipally owned lands available for housing.
4. Reducing capital and operating costs for non-market affordable housing.
a. Property tax reductions or exemptions
b. Fee waivers
c. Direct grant contributions
5. Preserving the supply of existing affordable and non-market housing.
6. Supportive policies and programs.
Action Plan Enabling Actions
Non-Market Housing
Market
Unit Targets
Page 94 of 116
3
Actions
Legend
#
Action
Key Partners
Short Term
2026-2027
Med. Term
2028-2029
Long Term
2030-2031
Ongoing
Numeric
identifier.
Specific
action or
project.
Departments
required for
successful
implementation.
Anticipated start date of each action.
Cell Colour
Description
White
Core Actions
Yellow
Identified in the Smart Growth Action Plan
Grey
Requires additional investments
1. Data collection, reporting, and integration.
#
Action
Key Partners
Short
Term
2026-
2027
Medium
Term
2028-
2029
Long
Term
2030-
2031
Ongoing
1.1
Establish a methodology for tracking
newly constructed affordable units.
Development
Services
X
1.2
Improve data collection process for
tracking existing affordable units.
Development
Services
X
1.3
Improve internal collaboration and
data alignment processes.
Corporate
Wide
X
1.4
Establish a coordinating committee
with community partners to guide
housing advocacy and policy or
participate in an existing committee
aligned with the goals of this Action
Plan.
Community
Strategies,
Development
Services,
Service
Providers
X
2. Getting projects off the ground faster.
#
Action
Key Partners
Short
Term
2026-
2027
Medium
Term
2028-
2029
Long
Term
2030-
2031
Ongoing
2.1
Continue to implement and streamline
the One Stop Development Shop
service model.
Development
Services
X
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4
2.2
Formalize "Affordable Housing
Navigator" role and expand Affordable
Housing Concierge services to all
projects that meet a minimum
affordability threshold.
Development
Services
X
2.3
Integrate Affordable Housing
Concierge services into One Stop
Development Shop processes.
Development
Services
X
2.4
Include Affordable Housing Navigator
role in the operating budget (1.0 FTE).
Development
Services
X
2.5
Continue to expand the e-permitting
system as outlined in the AMANDA
Roadmap and Digital Strategy.
Development
Services, CIT
X
2.6
Revise existing educational resources,
identify gaps, and create new
materials in consultation with
stakeholders.
Development
Services
X
2.7
Review and assess available planning
exemptions for affordable housing.
Development
Services
X
2.8
Monitor provincial changes to the
inclusionary zoning mechanism.
Development
Services
X
2.9
Review parking requirements for
projects that meet minimum
affordability thresholds.
Development
Services
X
2.10
Review zoning to determine if further
upzoning or prezoning is required to
support housing affordability.
Development
Services
X
2.11
Should permit volumes continue to
grow, develop preferential processing
policies for projects that meet
minimum affordability thresholds.
Development
Services
X
3. Making municipally owned lands available for housing.
#
Action
Key Partners
Short
Term
2026-
2027
Medium
Term
2028-
2029
Long
Term
2030-
2031
Ongoing
3.1
Leverage City-owned land and assess
ways to improve the disposal of land
process to support housing
affordability.
Development
Services
X
3.2
Integrate affordability considerations
into the Central Avenue Development
Lands project.
Development
Services
X
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5
3.3
Identify and allocate City-owned land
for affordable housing development
and issue a specific Call for Proposals.
Development
Services
X
3.4
Develop a Land Banking Strategy to
support long-term land availability and
readiness.
Development
Services
X
3.5
Continue to advocate for transfer of
provincial and federal surplus lands to
City, collaborating with community
partners where appropriate.
External
Relations
X
4. Reducing capital and operating costs for non-market affordable housing.
#
Action
Key Partners
Short
Term
2026-
2027
Medium
Term
2028-
2029
Long
Term
2030-
2031
Ongoing
4.1
Establish funding source for suite of
affordable housing funding programs
(annual review).
Development
Services,
Revenue
X
X
X
4a.
Property tax reductions or exemptions
4a.1
Assess opportunities to provide
property tax relief for projects that
meet minimum affordability
thresholds.
Development
Services,
Revenue
X
4a.2
Review existing tax rates and assess
whether changes are needed to
support affordable housing.
Development
Services,
Revenue
X
4a.3
Continue to monitor the potential
impacts of the recent Court of Appeal
decision on property tax exemptions
for affordable housing providers.
Development
Services,
Legal,
Revenue
X
4b.
Fee waivers
4b.1
Review existing municipal land
discount for not-for-profit
organizations and update to provide
deeper discount for the purposes of
affordable housing.
Development
Services
X
4b.2
Examine current municipal service fee
system and assess feasibility of
waiving or rebating fees for non-market
affordable housing.
Development
Services,
Engineering
&
Operations,
Environment,
Revenue
X
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6
5. Preserving the supply of existing affordable and non-market housing
#
Action
Key Partners
Short
Term
2026-
2027
Medium
Term
2028-
2029
Long
Term
2030-
2031
Ongoing
5.1
Assess if short-term rental regulations
would improve housing affordability.
Development
Services,
Licensing &
Enforcement
X
5.2
Incorporate affordability
considerations into the City-wide
retrofit program.
Community
Strategies
X
5.3
Assess feasibility and impact of
implementing a vacant home tax.
Development
Services,
Revenue
X
5.4
Monitor rental conversion requests to
determine if a rental conversion policy
is required.
Development
Services
X
5.5
Identify funding source to activate and
offer the Housing Rehabilitation and
Conversion Grant Program; modify the
Program to incorporate affordability
considerations.
Development
Services
X
5.6
Identify other tools available to
support affordable housing providers
with the maintenance and upgrade of
their existing units.
Development
Services
X
4b.3
Examine current municipal permit fee
system and assess feasibility of
waiving or rebating fees for non-market
affordable housing.
Development
Services,
Revenue
X
4c.
Direct grant contributions
4c.1
Create seed funding program for non-
market affordable housing projects
once a funding source has been
identified.
Development
Services
X
4c.2
Review existing Affordable Rental
Housing Funding Program once a
funding source has been identified.
Development
Services
X
4c.3
Investigate new tools for creatively
financing affordable housing,
including front-end financing or
infrastructure agreements.
Development
Services
X
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7
5.7
Review municipal by-laws, policies,
and programs that increase
protections for tenants to determine
suitability for Thunder Bay (ex.,
Renoviction By-laws, etc.)
Community
Strategies,
Development
Services
X
6. Supportive policies and projects
#
Action
Key Partners
Short
Term
2026-
2027
Medium
Term
2028-
2029
Long
Term
2030-
2031
Ongoing
6.1
Actively apply for funding from other
orders of government, when available
and appropriate, to support the
actions in this plan.
Finance,
Development
Services
X
6.2
Increase advocacy to other orders of
government for sufficient and
sustainable levels of infrastructure
funding to support housing.
External
Relations
X
6.3
Support advocacy led by community
partners for sufficient and sustainable
levels of capital and operating funding
for affordable housing.
External
Relations
X
6.4
Explore programs, policies, or
strategies to address environmental
contamination and remediation of
public and private lands to support
housing.
Development
Services,
Community
Strategies
X
6.5
Explore and evaluate other types of
affordable housing that the City could
help advance, such as co-housing
models, modular housing, or
Community Land Trusts.
Development
Services
X
6.6
Identify funding source to continue
offering the Additional Dwelling Unit
Grant Program.
Development
Services
X
6.7
Assess the feasibility of establishing a
Municipal Development Corporation
to accelerate affordable housing
development and intensification.
Development
Services
X
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8
Monitoring and Evaluation
Data collection, reporting, and integration has been identified as a key pillar in the Plan. Improved
data collection will assist in monitoring the impacts of new housing initiatives on housing
affordability in Thunder Bay.
Performance Indicators
-
New units: all new units, proportion of affordable units (CTB, TBDSSAB)
-
Units lost: all units lost, estimated proportion of affordable units lost (CTB, TBDSSAB)
-
Average market rent (CMHC)
-
Observed market rent (Kijiji, Facebook, Rent Panda)
-
Vacancy Rate (CMHC)
-
Housing market data: median sale price, days on market, months supply (Thunder Bay Real
Estate Board)
Reporting Cycle
Progress on the action plan and performance indicators will be presented to the Growth and/or
Quality of Life Standing Committees of Council on an annual basis.
Appendix A
Supporting actions in the Smart Growth Action Plan.
#
Action
Description
Timeline
R6
Central Avenue Lands
Develop a vision and construct municipal
services, such as road and water services for the
Central Avenue lands to open opportunities for
residential and commercial units.
Short
R11
Burwood Road Growth
Opportunities
Expand the Burwood Road municipal utility
services to enable the highest and best use of
the lands.
Medium
R17
Infill Housing in Urban
Serviced Areas
Explore new and expanded incentives and
policies to encourage housing development in
the areas connected to municipal services -
where roads, water, and other infrastructure is
already in place.
Short
R18
Increase Housing in the
Downtown Cores
As part of the revitalization efforts for the
downtown cores, expand incentives, policies,
and partnerships to support higher-density
housing.
Short
R19
Public Lands for Housing
Identify additional opportunities to unlock
underused public lands for housing.
Short
R20
Build Canada Homes
Leverage the federal Build Canada Homes
initiative to unlock and accelerate housing
Short
Page 100 of 116
9
development through all available programs,
partnerships, and investment tools.
R21
Secondary Plan Approval
Explore methods to improve the Secondary Plan
processes (for example, subdivision plans).
Short
R22
Underutilized Residential
Properties
Bring more housing to market by identifying and
promoting underused residential properties to
intensify their number of housing units.
Medium
R23
Launch a City-Wide
Retrofit Program
Implement a city-wide retrofit program to help
residents make their homes more energy
efficient (such as insulation upgrades or energy-
efficient heating systems), reducing costs and
emissions in line with the Net-Zero Strategy.
Medium
R24
Innovative Housing Models
Develop and share educational resources - such
as guides, workshops, or demonstration events -
to showcase sustainable, lower-cost, and
alternative housing models.
Medium
R25
Sustainable & Inclusive
Neighbourhood
Demonstration Project
Plan and launch a demonstration project that
showcases best practices in sustainable,
inclusive, and mixed-use neighbourhood design.
Medium
R26
Privately Held Lands for
Housing
Develop policies and tools including changes to
the tax system to encourage the redevelopment
of privately held vacant lands for housing.
Long
R27
One-Stop Development
Shop
Improve the development experience for
residents and builders by launching a One-Stop
Development Shop to streamline approvals,
enhance customer service, and provide clear
online tools and guidance materials to help
navigate the process more easily.
Short
R28
Inventory of Public Lands
Develop and maintain a public inventory map of
public lands available for residential,
commercial, and industrial development.
Short
R29
Land Disposal Process
Streamline the City's process for marketing and
selling surplus lands.
Medium
R30
Site Plan Control Process
Review the Site Plan Control process and
implement city-wide changes to make it more
efficient, effective, and clear, while continuing to
guide how new development fits into the
community.
Medium
R31
Archaeological
Management Plan
Complete an Archaeological Management Plan.
Short
R32
Coordinated Community
Response to
Homelessness
Work with partners and other orders of
Government to implement the long-term
solutions to address homelessness.
Short
R33
Green Development
Standard
Recognizing recent changes to Provincial
legislation, explore possible options for Green
Development Standards.
Short
Page 101 of 116
10
R35
City Development
Standards to Support
Growth Opportunities
Review City standards, including the Engineering
& Development Standards and Parks & Open
Spaces Design Guidelines to identify
opportunities to support growth.
Short
R36
City Grants Alignment with
Growth Objectives
Review municipal grant and funding programs for
alignment with the City's growth objectives and
adjust as needed.
Short
R40
Official Plan & Zoning By-
law Review
Conduct a review of the City's Official Plan and
Zoning By-law to identify further updates that
support increased housing density, infill, mixed-
use development, and targeted growth.
Medium
R41
Development Charges
In consultation with the development
community, complete background studies and
prepare a policy framework to support the
potential introduction of Development Charges,
with implementation no earlier than 2030.
Medium
R42
Infrastructure Capacity for
Growth
Assess the capacity of existing municipal and
non-municipal infrastructure, including the
Water Treatment Plant, to support future growth,
integrate growth objectives into the City's Asset
Management Plan, and identify future upgrades
needed in overall capacity or to address local
servicing gaps.
Short
Page 102 of 116
Standing Committee Report
REPORT NUMBER 199-2026-Growth-
DATE
PREPARED
June 22, 2026
FILE
STANDING
COMMITTEE
MEETING DATE
July 21, 2026
SUBJECT
Smart Growth Action Plan - Mid-Year Implementation Update
PURPOSE
This report provides a Mid-Year Implementation Update on the Smart Growth Action
Plan for information.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Smart Growth Action Plan (SGAP) was adopted by City Council in late 2025 as
Thunder Bay's long-term roadmap for sustainable population growth, tax base growth,
and an improved mix and availability of Industrial and Commercial lands.
This report provides Standing Committee with the first comprehensive update on
implementation following adoption of the Smart Growth Action Plan. The report
summarizes progress achieved during the first six months and demonstrates how the
Plan is becoming embedded within municipal operations, corporate planning, and
community partnerships.
Over the past six months, the City has transitioned from strategic planning to
coordinated execution. Significant progress has been made to embed the Smart Growth
Action Plan into municipal operations, establish governance and accountability
frameworks, strengthen partnerships, build organizational capacity, increase community
awareness, and advance priority actions. Early results indicate that municipal
operations and community partners are increasingly aligning their activities with
Thunder Bay's long-term growth objectives.
Highlights include:
Integration of City-led Smart Growth Action Plan actions into the City Manager
Work Plan to strengthen corporate accountability.
Ongoing implementation support across City departments through presentations,
workshops, and strategic advisory services.
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Corporate Report 199-2026-Growth-
Page 2
Expanded collaboration with community partners and Task Force Growth to
support a coordinated delivery of SGAP initiatives.
Establishment of the Project Management Office to strengthen governance,
coordination, and delivery of complex strategic projects.
Establishment of a Data & Performance Indicators Sub-Committee of Task Force
Growth to strengthen accountability and performance measurement.
Launch of a comprehensive communication program, including branding, public
awareness, project signage, etc. to increase visibility and community
engagement.
Evidence that community partners are incorporating SGAP priorities into their
own strategic planning and investment decisions.
Significant progress on many individual actions within the SGAP across all
pillars.
While this report focuses primarily on City-led implementation activities, work is also
progressing across a number of partner-led actions. Community organizations continue
to advance initiatives that align with the Smart Growth Action Plan through their own
strategic plans, investments, and programs. A more comprehensive update on partner-
led implementation and community contributions will be included in the year-end
implementation review.
Collectively, these initiatives establish the foundation required to successfully implement
more than 100 Smart Growth Action Plan actions over the next decade. While
implementation remains in its early stages, the City has established a strong foundation
for sustained execution and is well positioned to achieve Council's long-term growth
objectives.
KEY CONSIDERATIONS
Progress at a Glance
Implementation Area
Progress
Governance
Smart Growth Action Plan integrated into the City Manager
Work Plan and departmental implementation activities.
Organizational Capacity
Project Management Office established to strengthen
strategic project delivery.
Partnerships
Task Force Growth continues to coordinate cross-sector
implementation and strengthen collaboration with
community partners.
Performance
Measurement
Data & Performance Indicators Sub-Committee established
to strengthen accountability.
Communications
Comprehensive communication program launched,
including branding, videos, project signage, presentations
and public engagement initiatives.
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Corporate Report 199-2026-Growth-
Page 3
Implementation
Implementation is progressing across all three strategic
pillars, with dozens of Smart Growth actions advancing
through planning, coordination, and execution.
Community Alignment
Community partner organizations are increasingly aligning
their strategic planning and organizational initiatives with
the SGAP.
Implementation and Organizational Alignment
Since adoption, a primary focus has been embedding the Smart Growth Action Plan into
the City's strategic planning, operational decision-making and corporate priorities.
Many City-led, short and medium-term actions have been incorporated into the City
Manager Work Plan, aligning Smart Growth priorities with departmental business
planning and corporate priorities. As the City is responsible for leading approximately
70% of the Plan's actions, this integration represents a significant milestone in
embedding the Plan within day-to-day municipal operations and decision-making
processes.
To support corporate implementation, Growth Department staff have undertaken
presentations, workshops, individual meetings, and project-specific consultations across
City divisions. These discussions have strengthened organizational understanding of
the Smart Growth Action Plan, clarified departmental responsibilities, and identified
opportunities to integrate growth objectives into operational planning, project delivery,
and corporate communications, and Council reporting.
Building on this work, the Senior Advisor - Growth has worked directly with project leads
to clarify the intent, scope, sequencing, and implementation requirements for individual
actions. This ongoing leadership support is helping transition the Plan from a strategic
framework into an integrated implementation program that supports coordinated project
delivery across the organization.
As implementation continues to mature, the City's focus is increasingly shifting from
organizational awareness to coordinated execution. As departments continue advancing
individual Smart Growth actions, the Growth Department continues to provide
implementation support, coordination, and monitoring to promote consistent application
of the Plan across the corporation.
Project Management Office
The establishment of the Project Management Office (PMO) represents a significant
investment in the City's capacity to implement the Smart Growth Action Plan. The PMO
provides dedicated capacity to coordinate complex cross-departmental corporate
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Corporate Report 199-2026-Growth-
Page 4
initiatives that support Council's strategic growth objectives, including many of the
actions within the Smart Growth Action Plan.
Once fully operational, the PMO will provide consistent project governance, strengthen
cross-departmental coordination, improve accountability, standardize project reporting,
and enhance oversight of strategic initiatives. The PMO will also support proactive risk
management, improve executive decision-making through timely reporting, identify
project dependencies to support the successful delivery of Smart Growth Action Plan
initiatives.
Community Partnerships and Task Force Growth
Task Force Growth continues to serve as the City's primary collaborative forum for
guiding the coordinated implementation of the Smart Growth Action Plan.
Since adoption of the Plan, the Senior Advisor Growth has continued to engage with
Task Force members and community organizations to identify opportunities, strengthen
collaboration, and coordinate implementation activities, and promote shared ownership
of Thunder Bay's long-term growth objectives.
As implementation has progressed, engagement with community partners has evolved
from awareness-building to active collaboration and coordinated action. Increasingly,
organizations are using the Smart Growth Action Plan to inform their own strategic
planning, capital investments, and organizational initiatives, reinforcing that sustainable
growth is a shared community objective rather than solely a municipal responsibility.
This collaborative approach recognizes that achieving the goals of the Smart Growth
Action Plan extends beyond municipal government. Sustainable growth depends on
coordinated action by businesses, institutions, Indigenous partners, community
organizations, governments, and residents working toward shared objectives.
As implementation matures, continued collaboration through Task Force Growth will
strengthen coordination across sectors, leverage existing community capacity, and
improve collective progress toward Thunder Bay's long-term growth objectives.
Performance Measurement and Accountability
A robust performance measurement framework is fundamental to demonstrating
accountability, evaluating progress, and informing future decision-making throughout
implementation of the Smart Growth Action Plan.
Approximately half of the performance indicators identified within the Smart Growth
Action Plan have now been collected and validated. Remaining work includes
confirming indicator methodologies, establishing reliable data sources, and developing
standardized reporting processes to support ongoing performance monitoring.
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Corporate Report 199-2026-Growth-
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To strengthen the integrity of performance reporting, the Growth Department has
initiated the establishment of a Data & Performance Indicators Sub-Committee through
Task Force Growth. The Sub-Committee will provide technical advice on indicator
selection, methodology, data quality, interpretation, and reporting, helping ensure
performance measurement remain evidence-based, transparent, and consistent over
time.
Once fully implemented, the performance measurement framework will support regular
public reporting on implementation progress, improve transparency and accountability,
and assist Council in monitoring implementation progress and evaluating the Smart
Growth Action Plan's long-term objectives.
Together, these initiatives establish the governance framework required to support
transparent reporting, accountability, and evidence-informed decision-making
throughout implementation of the Smart Growth Action Plan.
Communications and Public Awareness
Communications activities during the initial implementation period have focused on
building awareness of the Smart Growth Action Plan, strengthening public
understanding of Thunder Bay's growth objectives, and establishing a consistent identity
for initiatives advancing actions within the Plan.
Recognizing that successful implementation depends upon community awareness and
shared understanding, a coordinated communications program has been developed
that promotes the Smart Growth Action Plan, celebrates implementation progress, and
strengthens connections between individual projects and Thunder Bay's broader growth
strategy.
Key initiatives completed or underway include:
Development of the Smart Growth Action Plan Communications Strategy.
Development of Smart Growth branding and visual identity.
Creation of public-facing promotion and communications materials.
Production of an introductory Smart Growth Action Plan video.
Introduction of Smart Growth project signage recognizing initiatives supporting
implementation.
Presentations to City departments, community organizations, and stakeholder
groups.
Public engagement through Thunder Bay Talks and other community events.
Increased integration of Smart Growth messaging into City reports,
presentations, and media communications.
Development of implementation reporting tools, dashboards, and ongoing
performance reporting.
Significant progress on many individual actions within the SGAP
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Corporate Report 199-2026-Growth-
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The Smart Growth Action Plan was featured during Thunder Bay Talks, where residents
had opportunities to engage directly with staff and learn more about growth initiatives.
Community engagement activities, including Thunder Bay Talks, provided opportunities
to introduce the Smart Growth Action Plan, discuss implementation priorities, and
increase public understanding of how growth initiatives contribute to Thunder Bay's
long-term development. These engagements also informed ongoing communications
and implementation activities.
Project signage has been introduced to improve public recognition of initiatives that
support the Smart Growth Action Plan. By connecting visible community investments to
broader strategic objectives, this initiative reinforces the relationship between individual
projects and Thunder Bay's long-term growth plan.
Early Action Progress Highlights
In addition to establishing the governance, organizational capacity, communications and
partnerships necessary to support implementation, the City has advanced a broad
range of actions across each of the Smart Growth Action Plan's three strategic pillars;
Readiness, Attraction, and Talent. While many initiatives remain in the early stages of
implementation, meaningful progress has been made in creating the conditions
necessary to support Thunder Bay's long-term growth objectives.
Many of these initiatives have been considered by City Council over the past year and
collectively demonstrate that implementation is progressing across all three strategic
pillars. Together, they reflect the City's deliberate approach to aligning corporate
priorities, investments, and decision-making within a single coordinated implementation
framework.
Examples include:
Readiness initiatives focus on strengthening the City's capacity to accommodate future
growth by improving development readiness, increasing housing opportunities,
modernizing municipal processes, preparing employment lands, and investing in
enabling infrastructure. Collectively, these initiatives establish the foundational
conditions required to support sustainable population and economic growth.
Name
Update
R1
City-Wide Growth Community
Improvement Plan
Implementation of the Growth CIP is
underway, including the launch of the
Employment Growth Tax Incentive
Grant, Capital Contribution Grant, and
Brownfield Rehabilitation Grant.
R3
Industrial Land Intensification
Strategy
Actively working with public and
private sector property owners to
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Corporate Report 199-2026-Growth-
Page 7
identify opportunities to intensify
industrial lands.
R5
Innova Business Park Review
Work is underway to review existing
development guidelines to accelerate
development.
R6
Central Avenue Lands
Development of the Preferred
Development Plan is underway,
informed by community feedback from
Public Open House #1, while Phase I
construction has been awarded.
R8
Strategic Industrial Development
of Mission & McKellar Islands
Continue work to improve industrial
land readiness, including Mission and
McKellar Islands
R11
Burwood Road Growth
Opportunities
Extension of infrastructure services
and zoning changes have been
effective to stimulate new
development interest.
Work continues to advance
development opportunities north of
Oliver Road.
R16
Housing Mix & Affordability
A Housing Affordability Plan will be
presented to the Growth Standing
Committee on July 21st .
R17
Infill Housing in Urban Serviced
Areas
Momentum continues to accelerate
following execution of the Housing
Accelerator Action Plan and
surplusing of City owned lands to
support housing
R19
Public Lands for Housing
Work is underway to identify and
advance additional opportunities to
unlock underused public lands for
future housing development.
R23
Launch a City-Wide Retrofit
Program
Work continues on Phase 2 of the
Home Energy Improvement Loan
Program Design Study.
R27
One-Stop Development Shop
Continual improvements to the One-
Stop Development Shop, including
making all permits available online -
streamlining customer service and
development approvals.
R31
Archaeological Management Plan Development of the Plan is in the final
stages and will be shared with the
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Growth Standing Committee in
September 2026.
R32
Coordinated Community
Response to Homelessness
Implementation of the Enhanced
Encampment Response 10 - Part
Plan to improve response to
unsheltered homelessness and
encampments.
R37
Artificial Intelligence
Use of AI policy was implemented this
year.
R42
Infrastructure Capacity for Growth Advancement of infrastructure
planning, including Water System
Master Plan and other infrastructure
capacity initiatives. Growth objectives
were included in the Asset
Management Plan and Policy.
R45
Expressway Upgrades & the
Northwest Arterial
Advocacy efforts to designate this as a
priority project under the Northern
Highway Program are ongoing. The
Class Environmental Study is
complete, property acquisitions and
site servicing reviews are advancing,
and the Province has advertised the
Thunder Bay Expressway preliminary
design assignment.
R46
Sleeping Giant Parkway to
Central Avenue
Extension of Sleeping Giant Parkway
is reflected in the Pool 6 Master Plan
update. Environmental Assessment
planned to start in 2027.
Attraction initiatives are intended to enhance Thunder Bay's competitiveness by
improving quality of place, strengthening community amenities, investing in strategic
infrastructure, and supporting projects that encourage people and businesses to choose
Thunder Bay as a place to live, work, invest, and visit.
Name
Update
A1
Reimagine Victoriaville
Demolition is complete, road
construction is underway.
A4
Overall Waterfront Plan
Continued implementation of the
Waterfront Trail Plan and associated
waterfront improvements.
A5
Pool 6 Lands Development
Completion of the Pool 6 Vision and
Master Plan has established a long-
term framework for redevelopment.
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Environmental site assessments and
railway noise and vibration studies are
underway to support future
development planning.
A7
Marina Park Festival Area
Construction of Phase I of the area
redevelopment is underway, delivering
key infrastructure improvements that
support future waterfront
development.
A10 Vacant & Dilapidated Building
Program
A report recommending the
establishment of the Vacant &
Dilapidated Building Program and
associated capital funding has been
presented to Council for consideration.
A12 Branding the City
Foundational work is underway to
support the City's refreshed brand and
marketing strategy, including website
renewal and improvements to public
engagement framework.
A23 Multi-Use Indoor Turf Facility
Ongoing construction of the Tbaytel
Multiplex.
A24 Centennial Botanical Conservatory
Completion of the $12.5 Million
renewal project.
A26 Event Equipment Lending Program
Internal work completed by
Community Services.
A31 Recreation & Parks Master Plan
Project initiation is underway for the
integrated Recreation & Parks Master
Plan.
A32 Arena Renewal Plan
Project is underway. Public
engagement was launched in June
2026 through a survey.
A34 Active Transportation Network
Work continues to expand the active
transportation network in 2026.
Projects currently underway include
new trails on Sibley Drive and Central
Avenue, new sidewalks on Oliver
Road and Pacific Avenue, and new
pedestrian bridge at McIntyre River on
Oliver Road.
A35 Thunder Bay Transit
Continued investment in Thunder Bay
Transit and transportation initiatives
supporting future growth. Transit
Service Optimization review is out for
public feedback.
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A37 Airport Access & Regional
Connectivity
Ongoing work to improvements in
customer experience and flight
network.
A38 Digital Connectivity
Tbaytel has completed the Fibre
upgrade across Thunder Bay.
A40 Community Safety & Well-Being
Plan
Development of the Community Safety
& Well-Being Plan is underway,
supported by implementation of the
Downtown Community Safety
Ambassador Program.
Talent initiatives support Thunder Bay's long-term economic competitiveness by
strengthening workforce development, improving connections between education and
industry, and creating clearer pathways for residents to study, work, and build careers
within the community.
Name
Update
T6
Post-Secondary Program
Alignment
Lakehead University recently
launched their new Shaping the
Evolution: Lakehead University's
2025-2030 Strategic Plan, highlighting
alignment with strategic direction and
the SGAP.
T8
Research Partnerships & Co-Op
Placements
Development of a three-year
CityStudio partnership with Lakehead
University, Confederation College, and
NOSM University is underway to
strengthen research partnerships and
experiential learning opportunities
Although some Smart Growth Action Plan actions are in planning or early
implementation stages, the breadth of progress achieved during the first six months
demonstrates that implementation is advancing across all three pillars of the Plan.
Implementation Outlook
The Smart Growth Action Plan includes more than 100 actions to be implemented over
the next decade. While implementation is progressing across all three strategic pillars,
individual actions will advance at different rates depending on funding, partnerships,
Council direction, regulatory requirements, and project complexity.
During the first six months, the City's focus has been on establishing the governance,
organizational capacity, partnerships, and implementation processes necessary to
support long-term success while advancing priority initiatives across the plan. As
implementation continues to mature, additional actions will transition from planning to
implementation, and future reports to Council will provide updates on implementation
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progress, performance indicators, and emerging priorities.
CONCLUSION
The first six months of implementation have focused on establishing the organizational
structures, governance, partnerships, and implementation capacity required to
successfully deliver the Smart Growth Action Plan over the next decade. While
implementation is in early stages, measurable progress has been achieved across each
of the Plan's three strategic pillars. Continued collaboration with City departments, Task
Force Growth, community partners, and Council will be essential to maintaining
implementation momentum and achieving Thunder Bay's long-term growth objectives.
CONSULTATION
Preparation of this report included ongoing collaboration with Task Force Growth, City
departments, and community partners supporting implementation of the SGAP.
FINANCIAL IMPLICATION
There are no direct financial implications arising from this report.
Future implementation requirements will continue to be considered through the City's
annual operating and capital budget processes. Where additional funding is required to
advance specific Smart Growth Action Plan initiatives, separate reports and funding
requests will be presented to Council for consideration.
BACKGROUND
In December 2025, R 383-2025 - Smart Growth Action Plan (Growth) was presented to
City Council, recommending the adoption of the Smart Growth Action Plan and that
Administration report two times per year on the implementation of the Plan.
In November 2025, R 377-2025- Presentation of Updated Smart Growth Action Plan
(Growth) was presented to the Growth Standing Committee, seeking the endorsement
of the updated Smart Growth Action Plan.
In October 2025, the draft Plan was presented to the Growth Standing Committee
where feedback was received.
In October 2025, a draft Smart Growth Action Plan was presented to City Council for
information.
In June 2025, an initial presentation on the development of the Smart Growth Action
Plan at a Non-Business Meeting of City Council.
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In February 2025, City Council received the 2025-2027 City Manager Work Plan, which
identified the development of a Smart Growth Action Plan as a key corporate initiative.
REPORT PREPARED BY
Matt Pearson, Senior Advisor Growth - Growth Department
REPORT SIGNED AND VERIFIED BY
Kerri Marshall, Commissioner - Growth Department
Date (07/13/2026)
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Growth Department
Memorandum
TO:
Jeff Walters
Manager - Legislative Services &
Deputy City Clerk
FILE: 26 602474
FROM:
Deanna Walker, Manager - Realty Services
Growth - Development Services - Realty Services
DATE:
June 18, 2026
SUBJECT:
Property Related Matter - Potential Surplus of Lands - 1702, 1706
& 1708 Francis St. W. and Part of Metcalfe Ave. (Untraveled)
MEETING &
DATE:
Growth Standing Committee
July 21, 2026
This memo recommends that the Growth Standing Committee resolve into Closed
Session to receive and discuss confidential information relative to the potential
disposition of City-owned lands municipally known as 1702, 1706 & 1708 Francis St. W.
and Part of Metcalfe Ave. (Untraveled) for the purpose of future residential
development.
Recommendation
THAT the Growth Standing Committee resolve into Closed Session in order to
receive and discuss information contained in confidential report 2026CLS-015
(Growth-Development Services- Realty Services) pursuant to the Municipal Act
(Section 239(2)):
(c)
a proposed or pending acquisition or disposition of land by the municipality
or local board;
(j) a trade secret or scientific, technical, commercial or financial information
that belongs to the municipality or local board and has monetary value or
potential monetary value;
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(k)
a position, plan, procedure, criteria or instruction to be applied to any
negotiations carried on or to be carried on by or on behalf of the municipality or
local board.
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